Trade Deadline 2023

[notin]

Makes sense. So does using those later picks on college pitchers, whose development into a pro won't take as long as a high schooler.

 

College pitchers are to more likely to sign, as they have fewer options available. The Carter Stewart Plan of seeking opportunities in Japan in lieu of the minors is likely to remain a very obscure minority…

[notin]

The rumor/speculation I'm hearing is massive offer from Red Sox for Ohtani.

 

Basic gist Marcelo Mayer, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Triston Casas for Ohtani.

 

If this deal gets done it would be massive and the Red Sox I think would have to agree a contract with Ohtani for a long term extension first. There's no way you commit that many resources to a guy who just walks at the end of the year.

 

article here:

https://clutchpoints.com/red-sox-perfect-shohei-ohtani-trade-boston-offer-angels-2023-deadline

 

It’s not an offer; it’s a blogger’s opinion.

 

I plugged it into BTV and my phone actually laughed at me.

 

Mayer alone has more trade value than 2 months of Ohtani. The deal involves the Red Sox giving up $153mill in surplus value to acquire a player with $57mill in surplus value.

 

Using the BTV system, a fair offer for Ohtani would be Bello and Bleis. Or Casas and Rafaela plus a lesser piece.

 

And I don’t expect either of those to happen…

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not an offer; it’s a blogger’s opinion.

 

I plugged it into BTV and my phone actually laughed at me.

 

Mayer alone has more trade value than 2 months of Ohtani. The deal involves the Red Sox giving up $153mill in surplus value to acquire a player with $57mill in surplus value.

 

Which makes sense. Blogger OTOH is clearly a moron.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

College pitchers are to more likely to sign, as they have fewer options available. The Carter Stewart Plan of seeking opportunities in Japan in lieu of the minors is likely to remain a very obscure minority…

 

Yup, and guys who attend universities with good baseball programs have at least a couple years of seasoning under professional coaches vs. better competition than kids with live arms in high schools. Even if not projected as first-round prospects, college strike throwers have value in completing pitching staffs at various levels of a farm system. And thus, they at least have a shot...

[mvp 78]

The rumor/speculation I'm hearing is massive offer from Red Sox for Ohtani.

 

Basic gist Marcelo Mayer, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Triston Casas for Ohtani.

 

If this deal gets done it would be massive and the Red Sox I think would have to agree a contract with Ohtani for a long term extension first. There's no way you commit that many resources to a guy who just walks at the end of the year.

 

article here:

https://clutchpoints.com/red-sox-perfect-shohei-ohtani-trade-boston-offer-angels-2023-deadline

 

LOL, no chance this happens.

[mvp 78]

It's not actually a rumor, it's just some blogger's wild speculation. The funniest part is when the blogger says "even that may not be enough".

 

For a few months of Ohtani for a team that is struggling to stay in WC contention. Laughable trade.

[mvp 78]

These shorts stops are likely to move off of position.

 

Nazzan Zanatello SS/CF - True potential 5-tool talent, he actually will play SS, but will likely get a lot of time in CF as well. There is some thought that if he physically matures he could move off the position.

Antonio Anderson SS/3B - While he is going to see time at both SS/3B developing most believe he will move off of the position. Most likely his home is at 3B or 2B.

Kristian Campbell - SS/2B/OF - His home is likely 2B or the outfield. Average arm, but tremendous speed.

Justin Riemer - SS/2B - Fringey arm, his best position is likely 2B.

 

Pheonix Call - SS/OF - There's a very good chance he does not even sign, typically a few high school picks are taken after the 10th round which is insurance in case a top pick does not sign (as any pick after the 10th round does not have a bonus slot and therefore you can't lose pool money if you do not sign them there). I think there's a chance he signs, despite my disbelief towards MVP on the matter yesterday. Call it 50/50. If he does, scouts are torn on whether he is best suited for SS or CF.

 

So you could say we drafted five short stops, but the reality is we might have really drafted a third baseman, a shortstop, a second baseman, a centerfielder, and a utility guy.

 

Short stops are the best athletes, and often the best players on a team. Aside from the argument that they neglect pitching there really isn't anything to complain about from the position player perspective. You drafted a catcher with your top pick and the guy who gets big and slow moves to first. There you go....all your bases are covered.

 

They always come around...

[moonslav59]

It’s not an offer; it’s a blogger’s opinion.

 

I plugged it into BTV and my phone actually laughed at me.

 

Mayer alone has more trade value than 2 months of Ohtani. The deal involves the Red Sox giving up $153mill in surplus value to acquire a player with $57mill in surplus value.

 

Using the BTV system, a fair offer for Ohtani would be Bello and Bleis. Or Casas and Rafaela plus a lesser piece.

 

And I don’t expect either of those to happen…

 

Even if Ohtani agreed to extend at a somewhat reasonable rate, he's barely worth any of these broken down deals, too.

[moonslav59]

For a few months of Ohtani for a team that is struggling to stay in WC contention. Laughable trade.

 

I doubt he'd even make us a top 4 contender.

[Hugh2]

They always come around...

 

Well in my defense the majority of kids who fit his profile in recent years do NOT sign.

 

2022: 2 High Schoolers past the 10th round. Both did not sign.

2021: 2 High Schoolers past the 10th round. Both did not sign.

2020: Skipping for obvious reasons.

This far back the draft was at 40 rounds instead of 20.

2019: 12 High Schoolers past the 10th round. 4 signed.

 

They haven't signed a high schooler past the 10th round since 1019, and even then only signed 1/3 of them.

 

So on and so forth throughout the draft cap era.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I doubt he'd even make us a top 4 contender.

 

But Ohtani could make us the Angels. A host on talk TV today said trade Mayer and Bello for him. His reasoning: Mayer might someday be a star hitter and Bello might be a star pitcher, but Ohtani is already both. He didn't say, though, that the Sox would then have half as many players in the line-up or on the roster.

 

He also said to pay him $700 million... because then the Sox would be the talk of Boston again (like, you fools-- I mean, gamblers-- hey, at least Sam Kennedy would finally be telling the truth).

[moonslav59]

Would you trade Rafaela, Winckowski, Walter & Perales for 1.3 years of Bieber (SP) and 2 months of Ahmed Rosario (SS)?

 

BTV says it's a minor overpay by BOS.

[moonslav59]

But Ohtani could make us the Angels. A host on talk TV today said trade Mayer and Bello for him. His reasoning: Mayer might someday be a star hitter and Bello might be a star pitcher, but Ohtani is already both. He didn't say, though, that the Sox would then have half as many players in the line-up or on the roster.

 

He also said to pay him $700 million... because then the Sox would be the talk of Boston again (like, you fools-- I mean, gamblers-- hey, at least Sam Kennedy would finally be telling the truth).

 

They all assume JH would pretend he's not paying Ohtani and spend the same on the rest of the team.

 

One guy on BTV suggested we trade for Ohtani and Trout! LMAO!

[mvp 78]

Well in my defense the majority of kids who fit his profile in recent years do NOT sign.

 

2022: 2 High Schoolers past the 10th round. Both did not sign.

2021: 2 High Schoolers past the 10th round. Both did not sign.

2020: Skipping for obvious reasons.

This far back the draft was at 40 rounds instead of 20.

2019: 12 High Schoolers past the 10th round. 4 signed.

 

They haven't signed a high schooler past the 10th round since 1019, and even then only signed 1/3 of them.

 

So on and so forth throughout the draft cap era.

 

I also wasn't saying it was certainly going to happen. I was saying there was just a chance it would happen due to the rumor that Teel was signing for way under and that the Sox really loaded up on underslot guys. He's still likely to go to school as his bat needs more refinement IMO.

[mvp 78]

But Ohtani could make us the Angels. A host on talk TV today said trade Mayer and Bello for him. His reasoning: Mayer might someday be a star hitter and Bello might be a star pitcher, but Ohtani is already both. He didn't say, though, that the Sox would then have half as many players in the line-up or on the roster.

 

He also said to pay him $700 million... because then the Sox would be the talk of Boston again (like, you fools-- I mean, gamblers-- hey, at least Sam Kennedy would finally be telling the truth).

 

Just wait until November and sign him for $700M and keep Mayer and Bello at their current discounted rates.

[mvp 78]

Would you trade Rafaela, Winckowski, Walter & Perales for 1.3 years of Bieber (SP) and 2 months of Ahmed Rosario (SS)?

 

BTV says it's a minor overpay by BOS.

 

Yes, if they plan on actually competing next year.

[Hugh2]

I also wasn't saying it was certainly going to happen. I was saying there was just a chance it would happen due to the rumor that Teel was signing for way under and that the Sox really loaded up on underslot guys. He's still likely to go to school as his bat needs more refinement IMO.

 

We will now soon enough. I want to know what is “way under”??? Because he was a premium player ranked higher than where he was. I’d be surprised if it was for more than 300-400k.

 

It also depends on what Call wants. If 600-800k gets him to go pro Sox got a real shot. Sometimes these ranked high school kids want first round money, which is why if they slip past the first round or two they just fall all the way until past the 10th.

 

If he wants something in the 1.5-2 million range, it might be wishful thinkingz

[Hugh2]

Yes, if they plan on actually competing next year.

I’d rather trade a much lesser package for just Rosario (who I’ve proposed trading for in the past) and sign one of Urias/Giolito/Yama/Nola

 

I really like Perales, you might be selling him for Pennie’s on the dollar at this point.

[mvp 78]

We will now soon enough. I want to know what is “way under”??? Because he was a premium player ranked higher than where he was. I’d be surprised if it was for more than 300-400k.

 

It also depends on what Call wants. If 600-800k gets him to go pro Sox got a real shot. Sometimes these ranked high school kids want first round money, which is why if they slip past the first round or two they just fall all the way until past the 10th.

 

If he wants something in the 1.5-2 million range, it might be wishful thinkingz

 

No idea about the "way under" rumor. Honestly, as long as they sign the first 4 picks, I'm happy.

[mvp 78]

I’d rather trade a much lesser package for just Rosario (who I’ve proposed trading for in the past) and sign one of Urias/Giolito/Yama/Nola

 

I really like Perales, you might be selling him for Pennie’s on the dollar at this point.

 

He's still far away and needs to be put on the 40 man this year. Probably wouldn't get to BOS until 2026? He also hasn't been a very healthy player so I don't know if he's a guy you can really trust long term. I'd sell high on him if I could.

[moonslav59]

Would Perales be taken on Rule 5?

 

I think yes, so I included him in the trade.

 

I also like Bieber for another year, and maybe we can lock him up longer. You know, like other teams did with Betts and Castillo.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just wait until November and sign him for $700M and keep Mayer and Bello at their current discounted rates.

 

My math be off, but I think $700M is around one-thousand times the MLB minimum salary.

 

So for the price of one Ohtani, the Red Sox could instead have 1,000 big leaguers making minimum wage.

 

Now obviously he's a one-of-a-kind -- actually two-of-a-kind/once-in-a-lifetime -- ballplayer... and a thousand rookies probably won't turn into very many All-Stars or even regulars in a starting line-up. But you have to think Bloom and his boys could at least package together a couple hundred of them and trade for some all-purpose utility men and stretchable relievers capable of opening and bulking...

 

I mean, Oakland has a run differential of MINUS 248 -- and Pablo Reyes, with a positive overall WAR and dWAR, couldn't make their club?

[notin]

My math be off, but I think $700M is around one-thousand times the MLB minimum salary.

 

So for the price of one Ohtani, the Red Sox could instead have 1,000 big leaguers making minimum wage.

 

Now obviously he's a one-of-a-kind -- actually two-of-a-kind/once-in-a-lifetime -- ballplayer... and a thousand rookies probably won't turn into very many All-Stars or even regulars in a starting line-up. But you have to think Bloom and his boys could at least package together a couple hundred of them and trade for some all-purpose utility men and stretchable relievers capable of opening and bulking...

 

I mean, Oakland has a run differential of MINUS 248 -- and Pablo Reyes, with a positive overall WAR and dWAR, couldn't make their club?

 

Exactly how do we get 1,000 minor leaguers on to a 40 man roster? Industrial-sized Nutri-Bullet?

[mvp 78]

My math be off, but I think $700M is around one-thousand times the MLB minimum salary.

 

So for the price of one Ohtani, the Red Sox could instead have 1,000 big leaguers making minimum wage.

 

Now obviously he's a one-of-a-kind -- actually two-of-a-kind/once-in-a-lifetime -- ballplayer... and a thousand rookies probably won't turn into very many All-Stars or even regulars in a starting line-up. But you have to think Bloom and his boys could at least package together a couple hundred of them and trade for some all-purpose utility men and stretchable relievers capable of opening and bulking...

 

I mean, Oakland has a run differential of MINUS 248 -- and Pablo Reyes, with a positive overall WAR and dWAR, couldn't make their club?

 

I don't think Ohtani is worth $700M to John Henry.

[Hugh2]

He's still far away and needs to be put on the 40 man this year. Probably wouldn't get to BOS until 2026? He also hasn't been a very healthy player so I don't know if he's a guy you can really trust long term. I'd sell high on him if I could.

 

So is a lot of guys that come from the DSL have to put on the 40-man. Think of it this way, he's only 20. He's just starting to ramp up his innings and I don't think he's missed any significant time. But he has some of the most elite pure stuff in the system, he misses bats and can strike guys out. I'm not ready to trade our highest upside arm when his value is very low because he's far away. And, players like this don't get traded as often now a days because teams feel the same way, and the return team usually values close to MLB talent much higher.

 

I mean, we've seen this team deviod of pitching talent, and have complained about it for a long long time, so it seems kind of moving backward to start trading our promising young pitching now. '

 

Lastly, as we can clearly see yesterday, Sox don't draft pitchers high. These DSL guys seem to be the system's best bet at developing high-end pitching. Looking pretty good with Bello right now.

[Hugh2]

I don't think Ohtani is worth $700M to John Henry.

 

He'd have to be putting up 10 WAR seasons for 10 years+ to be worth that.

 

He might do that for a few years. But there's no way he's pitching and hitting like an ACE years from now, at some point he very well may end up converting to a one way player at some point in that contract.

 

I also happen to think the bidding wont' get that outrageous, I think a number around 500-550 is more realistic.

[mvp 78]

So is a lot of guys that come from the DSL have to put on the 40-man. Think of it this way, he's only 20. He's just starting to ramp up his innings and I don't think he's missed any significant time. But he has some of the most elite pure stuff in the system, he misses bats and can strike guys out. I'm not ready to trade our highest upside arm when his value is very low because he's far away. And, players like this don't get traded as often now a days because teams feel the same way, and the return team usually values close to MLB talent much higher.

 

I mean, we've seen this team deviod of pitching talent, and have complained about it for a long long time, so it seems kind of moving backward to start trading our promising young pitching now. '

 

Lastly, as we can clearly see yesterday, Sox don't draft pitchers high. These DSL guys seem to be the system's best bet at developing high-end pitching. Looking pretty good with Bello right now.

 

He only pitched in one game in 2021 because of injuries.

 

If there plan is to hoard DSL guys, their 40 man roster will get bloated with guys that can't help their MLB roster on an annual basis. Not an ideal way to run a competitive team.

[mvp 78]

He'd have to be putting up 10 WAR seasons for 10 years+ to be worth that.

 

He might do that for a few years. But there's no way he's pitching and hitting like an ACE years from now, at some point he very well may end up converting to a one way player at some point in that contract.

 

I also happen to think the bidding wont' get that outrageous, I think a number around 500-550 is more realistic.

 

To some owners, there is value off the field for marketing and other reasons not factored into fWAR. Not sure Henry is as concerned about that though.

[Hugh2]

He only pitched in one game in 2021 because of injuries.

 

If there plan is to hoard DSL guys, their 40 man roster will get bloated with guys that can't help their MLB roster on an annual basis. Not an ideal way to run a competitive team.

 

So an 18 year old was injured once and now he's possibility our best pitching prospect in terms of the ceiling and we want to trade him? Also, how many innings do international guys typically put up in their first year?

 

It certainly isn't a red flag at the very least.

[Hugh2]

If I'm trading high end guys like Perales, I need more than 1.5 years of team control from a guy.