Optimal Lineup 2023.

[Hugh2]

I've been giving some thought to this recently. Weighing past performance, projected future performance, and anticipating guys come back from their injuries on schedule, what the best lineup on this club would be if the playoffs started today. Because as of today we are a playoff team.

 

RF - Alex Verdugo

1B - Justin Turner

3B - Rafael Devers

LF - Adam Duvall

DH - Masataka Yoshida

SS - Trevor Story

CF - Jarren Duran

C - Connor Wong

2nd - Kike Hernandez

 

I'm hoping Casas is the first baseman. I still have a very high level of confidence in the kid. He's putting together great plate appearances and I said the same thing about Masa weeks ago. Anyone who has the mental acuity to see balls and strikes better than most other people in the MLB will eventually hit. He's young, he'll be fine. BUT if the playoffs started today and everyone was healthy, you just can't be starting him right now. Turner can play 1B and Duvall is a better fielder than Masa. Depending on how things shake up during the next couple months, I could see a trade for some help at SS/2B

Edited May 3, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[moonslav59]

Why is Duvall back but not Story?

 

I used to think the best overall hitter should bat 3rd, but that is a thing of the past.

 

Devers in the #2 slot to start any line-up.

 

I still think Yoshida's approach should make him the leadoff hitter, and since Dugo is showing power, maybe it makes sense to move him off #1.

 

1. L Yoshida DH/LF

2. L Devers 3B

3. R Duvall LF

4. L Verdugo RF

5. R Story SS/2B

6. R Turner 1B/DH

7. L Duran CF/ R Kike CF

8. R Kike 2B/ R Mondesi SS

9. L McGuire/ R Wong

[Hugh2]

Why is Duvall back but not Story?

 

I used to think the best overall hitter should bat 3rd, but that is a thing of the past.

 

Devers in the #2 slot to start any line-up.

 

I still think Yoshida's approach should make him the leadoff hitter, and since Dugo is showing power, maybe it makes sense to move him off #1.

 

1. L Yoshida DH/LF

2. L Devers 3B

3. R Duvall LF

4. L Verdugo RF

5. R Story SS/2B

6. R Turner 1B/DH

7. L Duran CF/ R Kike CF

8. R Kike 2B/ R Mondesi SS

9. L McGuire/ R Wong

 

Can't believe I forgot about Story. I made the edit and split him and Duran to keep in more L/R/L/R

[Hugh2]

I love how they move guys around and get guys into the lineup who didn't start that day. Your best players will perform better when they are rested and healthy. I think Wong has won the starter's job, I'd still like McGuire to get a lot of games. Wong's emergence + McGuires past + an unreasonable amount of faith put into CERA have built this ideal around here that Reese isn't a good catcher. It's quite the opposite. Also, Wong is so good in other ways you don't see with a catcher with his speed on the bases, that I think he can actually be a better player when he gets a reasonable amount of rest. I think he's earned that role to start but I'm very comfortable with McGuire being his running mate.

 

Obviously managing the roster it Makes sense to start McGuire vs. RHP and Wong vs. LHP as best you can, but there's no way Wong should sit vs. all RHP, he's your starter. Maybe Reese gets 40-50 starts this year and those should mostly be against RHP, in a perfect world, it would be. But this is not a perfect world and there are other considerations such as who a pitcher likes throwing too. I think Wong is earning that role.

[Bellhorn04]

I love how they move guys around and get guys into the lineup who didn't start that day. Your best players will perform better when they are rested and healthy. I think Wong has won the starter's job, I'd still like McGuire to get a lot of games. Wong's emergence + McGuires past + an unreasonable amount of faith put into CERA have built this ideal around here that Reese isn't a good catcher. It's quite the opposite. Also, Wong is so good in other ways you don't see with a catcher with his speed on the bases, that I think he can actually be a better player when he gets a reasonable amount of rest. I think he's earned that role to start but I'm very comfortable with McGuire being his running mate.

 

Obviously managing the roster it Makes sense to start McGuire vs. RHP and Wong vs. LHP as best you can, but there's no way Wong should sit vs. all RHP, he's your starter. Maybe Reese gets 40-50 starts this year and those should mostly be against RHP, in a perfect world, it would be. But this is not a perfect world and there are other considerations such as who a pitcher likes throwing too. I think Wong is earning that role.

 

It looks to me like McGuire will be catching Kluber and Pivetta, and the platoon is done with.

[Hugh2]

It looks to me like McGuire will be catching Kluber and Pivetta, and the platoon is done with.

 

For starting maybe, but I think they will still pinch hit McGuire and Wong on their days off and could always slide one into the position. One thing this team has a lot of options with in the lineup is it's ability to interchange guys and play match ups. So far it's looking great for the offense.

[mvp 78]

Optimal Lineup:

CF Betts

LF Yoshida

SS Bogey

3B Devers

DH Turner

RF Duvall

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Kiké

[Bellhorn04]

For starting maybe, but I think they will still pinch hit McGuire and Wong on their days off and could always slide one into the position.

 

Cora is very selective about that, too. Last night Wong stayed in the game after Houck was done, faced 2 RH relievers, one with the Sox behind a run, one with the game tied, and of course he improbably homered both times.

[Bellhorn04]

Optimal Lineup:

CF Betts

LF Yoshida

SS Bogey

3B Devers

DH Turner

RF Duvall

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Kiké

 

Betts = no Wong. You thought you had it covered by removing Dugo.

[mvp 78]

Betts = no Wong. You thought you had it covered by removing Dugo.

 

In my fantasy world, the Sox still need to make trades for catchers and the Dodgers have a surplus of catchers and were willing to deal Connor Wong for David Price's expiring contract.

 

"What a country!"

 

I hope that's an old enough reference for moon!

[mvp 78]

Cora is very selective about that, too. Last night Wong stayed in the game after Houck was done, faced 2 RH relievers, one with the Sox behind a run, one with the game tied, and of course he improbably homered both times.

 

We've heard for a long time that Wong has pop. He's finally starting to show it in game at the MLB level (15 HR in 81 G in WOO last year). The first month for Wong has been very good. We should all be very happy about it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've been giving some thought to this recently. Weighing past performance, projected future performance, and anticipating guys come back from their injuries on schedule, what the best lineup on this club would be if the playoffs started today. Because as of today we are a playoff team.

 

RF - Alex Verdugo

1B - Justin Turner

3B - Rafael Devers

LF - Adam Duvall

DH - Masataka Yoshida

SS - Trevor Story

CF - Jarren Duran

C - Connor Wong

2nd - Kike Hernandez

 

I'm hoping Casas is the first baseman. I still have a very high level of confidence in the kid. He's putting together great plate appearances and I said the same thing about Masa weeks ago. Anyone who has the mental acuity to see balls and strikes better than most other people in the MLB will eventually hit. He's young, he'll be fine. BUT if the playoffs started today and everyone was healthy, you just can't be starting him right now. Turner can play 1B and Duvall is a better fielder than Masa. Depending on how things shake up during the next couple months, I could see a trade for some help at SS/2B

 

Interesting concept. I'm just not sure how realistic it is to expect Duvall and Story back full strength when they return. I have more faith in Chang recovering from a cracked handbone playing short than Story with an artificially-repaired throwing elbow. I do think Trevor can upgrade the offense, and I'd put him back at second, where he was really good last year.

 

Duvall got hurt playing outfield two years in a row, so I may make him the DH and leave Yoshida in a position where he's thrived in his U.S. transition. Kike can platoon with whoever needs a break and can't hit some lefties as good as he can. No idea if Mondesi, who relies on speed, will be the same player whenever he returns from a major knee injury.

[notin]

Cora is very selective about that, too. Last night Wong stayed in the game after Houck was done, faced 2 RH relievers, one with the Sox behind a run, one with the game tied, and of course he improbably homered both times.

 

 

Old school logic is you don’t pinch hit for the catcher, because if your second catcher gets hurt, you have to scramble to see who owns a mitt, since almost no teams carry 3 catchers.

 

However, this did become less of a c C in ren once home plate collisions were banned…

[Hugh2]

Optimal Lineup:

CF Betts

LF Yoshida

SS Bogey

3B Devers

DH Turner

RF Duvall

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Kiké

 

That's a fantasy lineup.

[Hugh2]

Interesting concept. I'm just not sure how realistic it is to expect Duvall and Story back full strength when they return. I have more faith in Chang recovering from a cracked handbone playing short than Story with an artificially-repaired throwing elbow. I do think Trevor can upgrade the offense, and I'd put him back at second, where he was really good last year.

 

Duvall got hurt playing outfield two years in a row, so I may make him the DH and leave Yoshida in a position where he's thrived in his U.S. transition. Kike can platoon with whoever needs a break and can't hit some lefties as good as he can. No idea if Mondesi, who relies on speed, will be the same player whenever he returns from a major knee injury.

 

Problem is who is playing SS if Story is at 2nd? maybe Mondesi, but what if he can't stay healthy? I don't want Kike touching the position.

[mvp 78]

That's a fantasy lineup.

 

So is anticipating guys coming back from injury on schedule, but starting the playoffs today.

[Hugh2]

So is anticipating guys coming back from injury on schedule, but starting the playoffs today.

 

I don't think it's a zero-sum game here. The playoffs are NOT starting today, but if they did we would be a playoff team. One can speculate that we are or will be or SHOULD be in the hunt for the playoffs in October. We do know however that players will come off the IL. So that's fair.

[mvp 78]

It looks to me like McGuire will be catching Kluber and Pivetta, and the platoon is done with.

 

Hard to say. McGuire is dealing with a hand issue right now which is keeping him out of the lineup. His usage may be down over the short term and not indicative of what the future use is.

[Hugh2]

Hard to say. McGuire is dealing with a hand issue right now which is keeping him out of the lineup. His usage may be down over the short term and not indicative of what the future use is.

 

It’s kind of nice to see them both competing well showing they belong behind the plate. Hopefully McGuire comes back strong, but Wong is showing he’s more than capable

[moonslav59]

It's interesting that 2 of our worst offensive positions are 2B/SS and 1B.

 

The return of Story can change one outlook.

 

The return of Duvall can push Turner to 1B and Yoshida or Duvall to DH.

 

Mondesi may do better than the other middle IF slot, but right now, Arroyo is heating things up.

 

Our offense sure looks all set and deep, once guys return.

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

It's interesting that 2 of our worst offensive positions are 2B/SS and 1B.

 

The return of Story can change one outlook.

 

The return of Duvall can push Turner to 1B and Yoshida or Duvall to DH.

 

Mondesi may do better than the other middle IF slot, but right now, Arroyo is heating things up.

 

Our offense sure looks all set and deep, once guys return.

 

 

 

 

This is my take as well. In the spirit of the discussion, if the playoffs started today and everyone was healthy, Turner plays first and pushes Yoshida to DH.

 

I’m hopeful Casas turns it around, I think he will.

[moonslav59]

This is my take as well. In the spirit of the discussion, if the playoffs started today and everyone was healthy, Turner plays first and pushes Yoshida to DH.

 

I’m hopeful Casas turns it around, I think he will.

 

Now, go totally into la-la land. What if everyone is healthy, and Casas, Duran, Valdez, Arroyo, McGuire and Wong are all doing very well?

 

Over the past few days, this actually looks like it's not total fantasy.

[mvp 78]

Now, go totally into la-la land. What if everyone is healthy, and Casas, Duran, Valdez, Arroyo, McGuire and Wong are all doing very well?

 

Over the past few days, this actually looks like it's not total fantasy.

 

Since 4/20, Arroyo has a 249 wRC+, that's totally going to continue. Even with his recent uptick, he has a 71 wRC+ for the season. He'll maybe crawl back towards 100 over the course of the season, but he's not going to be as hot as he currently is for very long.

 

Wong is very hot right now, but his overall numbers have been fairly strong for a while. I have more faith in his bat long term than Arroyo's.

 

McGuire can't control the running game the way Wong does (pop time and strong arm that I mentioned yesterday), but they may go back to more of a platoon once his hand is feeling better again.

 

Casas is going to need a long adjustment period. He seems to struggle between a patient approach and a passive approach. I don't know if he's being overly selective and is working the count just to work the count or is waiting for a particular pitch. Either way, he needs to learn to make better contact in the zone. It's not really happening right now. One or two games could jump start him, but we'll see. He has the fundamentals at least.

 

Duran is an unknown. Scouts liked him last season. He was making loud contact in WOO. His new stance is working and he seems much more confident. If his defense is just passable, he should at least be a 4th OFer going forward.

 

Valdez is a good platoon hitter with a terrible glove. 2B/LF/DH profile if you're going to punt on IF defense. People have said "Valdez should just be happy to be in MLB because he was so bad this season in WOO" but that's because of his split against LHP (306 OPS). His MLB OPS against LHP is 000.

[Hugh2]

Since 4/20, Arroyo has a 249 wRC+, that's totally going to continue. Even with his recent uptick, he has a 71 wRC+ for the season. He'll maybe crawl back towards 100 over the course of the season, but he's not going to be as hot as he currently is for very long.

 

Wong is very hot right now, but his overall numbers have been fairly strong for a while. I have more faith in his bat long term than Arroyo's.

 

McGuire can't control the running game the way Wong does (pop time and strong arm that I mentioned yesterday), but they may go back to more of a platoon once his hand is feeling better again.

 

Casas is going to need a long adjustment period. He seems to struggle between a patient approach and a passive approach. I don't know if he's being overly selective and is working the count just to work the count or is waiting for a particular pitch. Either way, he needs to learn to make better contact in the zone. It's not really happening right now. One or two games could jump start him, but we'll see. He has the fundamentals at least.

 

Duran is an unknown. Scouts liked him last season. He was making loud contact in WOO. His new stance is working and he seems much more confident. If his defense is just passable, he should at least be a 4th OFer going forward.

 

Valdez is a good platoon hitter with a terrible glove. 2B/LF/DH profile if you're going to punt on IF defense. People have said "Valdez should just be happy to be in MLB because he was so bad this season in WOO" but that's because of his split against LHP (306 OPS). His MLB OPS against LHP is 000.

 

According to advance stats McGuire is a better pitch framer than Wong. But Wong is not a bad pitch framer and his pop times are a LOT better than McGuire. Which I find intriguing because before this year McGuire had elite poptimes, and they have dipped this year. Get that boy in a weight room over the offseason and work on it!!! The only thing I find a little concerning about Wong is he does have below average whiff rates, chase rates, and walk rates. But they're not horrible, especially for a catcher and he has elite exit velocities.....which is both surprising and intriguing to me. I think there is room for his bat to grow and if it does the kid will be a stud.

[Hugh2]

Now, go totally into la-la land. What if everyone is healthy, and Casas, Duran, Valdez, Arroyo, McGuire and Wong are all doing very well?

 

Over the past few days, this actually looks like it's not total fantasy.

 

All things considered? Story at SS, Casas at 1B, Duran in CF, and the rest make up an elite bench.

[mvp 78]

According to advance stats McGuire is a better pitch framer than Wong. But Wong is not a bad pitch framer and his pop times are a LOT better than McGuire. Which I find intriguing because before this year McGuire had elite poptimes, and they have dipped this year. Get that boy in a weight room over the offseason and work on it!!! The only thing I find a little concerning about Wong is he does have below average whiff rates, chase rates, and walk rates. But they're not horrible, especially for a catcher and he has elite exit velocities.....which is both surprising and intriguing to me. I think there is room for his bat to grow and if it does the kid will be a stud.

 

I think McGuire is dealing with an injury which is hurting his performance behind the plate. He also just doesn't have a great arm. He's fine for a catcher and can hit a little. I don't want to be too picky with a backup catcher. It seems like dWAR really pumps up the value of caught stealing over pitch framing because Wong's dWAR amazing, but the rest of his game is just average. Maybe there is too much volatility with how umps call games anyway to really put a value on how a catcher frames a pitch? IDK. Seems weird though. Can't complain about this tandem though.

[moonslav59]

All things considered? Story at SS, Casas at 1B, Duran in CF, and the rest make up an elite bench.

 

Not so fast.

 

If Duran and Casas are FT'ers, that leaves one of these guys making up that "elite bench:"

 

Kike 2B/CF

Turner DH (not 1B, if Casas da man)

Yoshida LF/DH

Duvall LF/DH (not CF, if Duran da man)

 

Three positions (2B, LF, DH): 4 players.

 

I'm sure Cora could up his "rest day for hot hitter" strategy and create a complex rotation plan with maybe a platoon, here and there.

 

L: Casas, Duran, Valdez (kills RHPs)

 

R: Turner, Kike, Arroyo, Refsnyder

 

Catchers will settle into binky match-ups with SP'ers.

 

Will be 100% FT: Devers, Duvall, Story, Verdugo, Yoshida

 

[Old Red]

Not so fast.

 

If Duran and Casas are FT'ers, that leaves one of these guys making up that "elite bench:"

 

Kike 2B/CF

Turner DH (not 1B, if Casas da man)

Yoshida LF/DH

Duvall LF/DH (not CF, if Duran da man)

 

Three positions (2B, LF, DH): 4 players.

 

I'm sure Cora could up his "rest day for hot hitter" strategy and create a complex rotation plan with maybe a platoon, here and there.

 

L: Casas, Duran, Valdez (kills RHPs)

 

R: Turner, Kike, Arroyo, Refsnyder

 

Catchers will settle into binky match-ups with SP'ers.

 

Will be 100% FT: Devers, Duvall, Story, Verdugo, Yoshida

 

Things usually work themselves out, and there is still a long ways to go if at all that everyone is back, and healthy. If Duran is for real, and Casas finally decides to swing the bat, and gets straightened out it will be a good problem to have to find room for everyone if everyone is going good at the same time, which I’m not counting for that to happen.

[moonslav59]

Things usually work themselves out, and there is still a long ways to go if at all that everyone is back, and healthy. If Duran is for real, and Casas finally decides to swing the bat, and gets straightened out it will be a good problem to have to find room for everyone if everyone is going good at the same time, which I’m not counting for that to happen.

 

It's a near certainty everyone will not be or stay hot all year- same with staying healthy. We may get Story and Duvall back and lose 2-3 others.

 

Yes, if it happens, it's good problem to have, but it is nice to see so many players gelling at the same time.

 

Sometimes sticking with struggling players works (Renfroe, Kike & Dalbec in 2021) and sometimes it doesn't (Dalbec and Duran 2022, to name just a few.)

[Hugh2]

Not so fast.

 

If Duran and Casas are FT'ers, that leaves one of these guys making up that "elite bench:"

 

Kike 2B/CF

Turner DH (not 1B, if Casas da man)

Yoshida LF/DH

Duvall LF/DH (not CF, if Duran da man)

 

Three positions (2B, LF, DH): 4 players.

 

I'm sure Cora could up his "rest day for hot hitter" strategy and create a complex rotation plan with maybe a platoon, here and there.

 

L: Casas, Duran, Valdez (kills RHPs)

 

R: Turner, Kike, Arroyo, Refsnyder

 

Catchers will settle into binky match-ups with SP'ers.

 

Will be 100% FT: Devers, Duvall, Story, Verdugo, Yoshida

 

 

If I have to choose, it's Duval in LF, Duran in CF, Verdugo RF, Casas 1B, Yoshida DH, Story SS, Kike at 2nd. If everyone is healthy I don't want Kike touching SS.

 

Are guys going to be rotated and platooned? yes. But those are my "all things being equal" everyone is healthy, and assuming Casas figures it out lineup. Switch out Turner for Casas if Casas never figures it out.