Red Sox Relief Pitching 2023

[mvp 78]

Ryan Brasier:

Average Exit Velo 34th Percentile

Hard Hit 14th Percentile

K% 28th Percentile

BB% 29th Percentile

Whiff% 7th Percentile

 

Brasier was only retained this year because he limited his walks. That is no longer the case. While his numbers are better if you ignore Opening Day, I think the writing is on the wall.

 

Kaleb Ort:

Average Exit Velo 33rd Percentile

Hard Hit 32nd Percentile

K% 57th Percentile

BB% 89th Percentile

Whiff% 5th Percentile

 

Ort is actually doing what the Sox kept Brasier around for: limiting walks. The results have been up and down, but it makes more sense to keep him around longer than Brasier.

 

Richard Bleier:

Average Exit Velo 44th Percentile

Hard Hit 81st Percentile

K% 26th Percentile

BB% 77th Percentile

Whiff% 9th Percentile

 

Bleier induces bad contact and the bad defense around him and bad luck contributes to a 12.46 ERA. His xERA sits at 3.40. Even when Joely gets back, he probably still has a role somewhere in the pen ahead of Ort or Brasier.

 

Aside from the 3 mentioned above, Jansen has been better than advertised, Martin has been fine, Winckowski has been fantastic and Schreiber has taken a slight step back from last year (expected). Kelly got injured, but I thought he was pitching like s*** and should have been on the next bus to AAA IMO.

 

Guys on the 40 man in AAA:

 

Mata is still struggling with control. No chance he can help in the near term.

Chris Murphy was dreadful in his first start. Shouldn't be on the 40 man roster.

Brandon Walter is pitching ok, but probably won't be called up just to fill a relief role.

 

Guys in AAA that could potentially be added to the 40 man:

 

AJ Politi is currently the closer. Has a fastball/slider mix and could be passed through waivers again most likely.

Oddanier Mosqueda was a popular LH name thrown around before the roster was finalized. Average arm and nothing stands out.

Ryan Sherriff is an older left handed specialist that would only have value if Joely or Bleier were hurt for an extended period. High BB rate.

Taylor Broadway has a power arm and limits walks.

 

Other guys on the horizon:

 

Luis Guerrero (featured in today's Globe), Theo Denlinger (former teammate of Taylor Broadway and blacksmith), Ryan Fernandez (injured) and Ryan Zeferjahn (also injured).

[moonslav59]

We might think of moving Crawford to the pen, when Bello or Paxton are ready, but I doubt we do that.

 

If Sale keeps sucking, do they try him in the pen? (I know- blasphemy!)

[moonslav59]

Joely may be ready by early May.

[Bellhorn04]

Joely has a career fWAR of 1.2 in 146 IP. Not really a big difference-maker.

[moonslav59]

Joely has a career fWAR of 1.2 in 146 IP. Not really a big difference-maker.

 

Just looking at improving on Brasier/Ort/Kelly.

[mvp 78]

Joely has a career fWAR of 1.2 in 146 IP. Not really a big difference-maker.

 

Yeah, he's a middle reliever.

[Larry Cook]

Just looking at improving on Brasier/Ort/Kelly.

 

Any hole for Kelly to turn it around on his own?

[Jasonbay44]

Having an actual closer, with experience and that’s actually good has been amazing. Jansen has been lights out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Having an actual closer, with experience and that’s actually good has been amazing. Jansen has been lights out.

 

The biggest worry for recent subpar Red Sox rotations is they lead to bullpen burnout. This year's rotation is already the worst in the majors, at least in longevity, since not one starting pitcher has recorded a single out past the 5th inning.

 

But for some reason, dependable ace closers like Jansen keep piling up the saves and seldom break down. Without going crazy on stats, here are 162-game career averages of games pitched by some notable relievers of the last 20 years (maybe they're just the survivors?):

 

Jansen 68

Kimbrel 68

Papelbon 68

Lidge 68

Hoffman 68

KRod 68

Chapman 68

Rodney 68

Barnes 68

Rivera 67

[Bellhorn04]

I'd say Jansen has a place in the pantheon of all-time best closers.

[Bellhorn04]

One of the most impressive things about Jansen is how readily he adapted to the pitch clock, because he was one of the slower-working guys before.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One of the most impressive things about Jansen is how readily he adapted to the pitch clock, because he was one of the slower-working guys before.

 

He worked out all winter with a clock counting down the seconds. That's in contrast to most old-timers on forums, who intentionally avoid reminders of time running out.

[Bellhorn04]

He worked out all winter with a clock counting down the seconds. That's in contrast to most old-timers on forums, who intentionally avoid reminders of time running out.

 

That's why the man is a real pro.

[notin]

That's why the man is a real pro.

 

So where is your Reese McGuire Tin Foil Conspiracy hat? Why did the Dodgers and Braves give up on him to replace him with, well, anyone? I mean, it’s been two years and the Dodgers still don’t have a closer!

 

[Bellhorn04]

So where is your Reese McGuire Tin Foil Conspiracy hat? Why did the Dodgers and Braves give up on him to replace him with, well, anyone? I mean, it’s been two years and the Dodgers still don’t have a closer!

 

 

Jansen costs real money, unlike McGuire. So there.

[notin]

Jansen costs real money, unlike McGuire. So there.

 

Since when was that an obstacle for the Dodgers?

 

This team keeps giving more money to Clayton Kershaw to be a part time starting pitcher. I mean, do they sounds like real money matters to them when they keep shelling out $20mill each year to a SP who hasn’t thrown 130 IP in a year since 2019…

[sk7326]

Pen has been excellent - particularly considering how little help they are getting from the rotation and defense.

[Bellhorn04]

Pen has been excellent - particularly considering how little help they are getting from the rotation and defense.

 

Yep, the pen has been great so far.

[a700hitter]

Yep, the pen has been great so far.

Ort still needs to go

[mvp 78]

Ort still needs to go

 

His metrics are better than Brasier's.

[a700hitter]

His metrics are better than Brasier's.

I stand corrected. They both need to go.

[Hugh2]

I stand corrected. They both need to go.

 

I mean someone has to go when Paxton/Mondesi/story come back.

 

But until then, who are you replacing them with?

[mvp 78]

I stand corrected. They both need to go.

 

This is the correct take. I'm not sure who to replace them with internally though.

[notin]

I mean someone has to go when Paxton/Mondesi/story come back.

 

But until then, who are you replacing them with?

 

Hopefully Crawford pushed both down a notch after yesterday. If so, maybe Ort is next man down?

 

Or Bello. Either way, if Houck returns to the bullpen, we’re talking about the 7th and 8th options at reliever. I’m not going to sweat the mop up guys when the starting 2b and SS are a bit of a mess…

[Hugh2]

Hopefully Crawford pushed both down a notch after yesterday. If so, maybe Ort is next man down?

 

Or Bello. Either way, if Houck returns to the bullpen, we’re talking about the 7th and 8th options at reliever. I’m not going to sweat the mop up guys when the starting 2b and SS are a bit of a mess…

 

Crawford is already on the roster with a Kelly out he’s not replacing anyone.

[moonslav59]

We will never see everyone healthy at once, and who is in the rotation affects the pen, too, especially Houck.

 

It looks like Whitlock is in the rotation to stay. (Whitlock, Sale, Kluber, Pivetta and Bello/Paxton (piggyback for 2-3 rotations?)

 

A 100% healthy pen would then look like this:

 

7 man pen + Paxton/Bello= 8

 

Closer: Jansen

 

8th/9th short: Martin, Schreiber, Bleier (odd men out: Joely, Brasier, Ort, Kelly, Mills)

5th to 9th long: Houck, Winckowski, Crawford (odd men our: Mata, Walter)

 

 

[mvp 78]

Hopefully Crawford pushed both down a notch after yesterday. If so, maybe Ort is next man down?

 

Or Bello. Either way, if Houck returns to the bullpen, we’re talking about the 7th and 8th options at reliever. I’m not going to sweat the mop up guys when the starting 2b and SS are a bit of a mess…

 

Well, there is no plan for 2b and SS. At least there are RP options to talk about IN THE RELIEF PITCHING THREAD.

[moonslav59]

Well, there is no plan for 2b and SS. At least there are RP options to talk about IN THE RELIEF PITCHING THREAD.

 

Unless we call "waiting" a plan.

 

Does anyone even know what the plan is, when and if Mondesi is healthy enough to play nearly everyday?

 

Plus, there is no firm idea on when he is due back.

 

Hell, we may see Story back before Mondesi, at this rate.

 

[a700hitter]

I mean someone has to go when Paxton/Mondesi/story come back.

 

But until then, who are you replacing them with?

I don’t want them to be around that long. Edited April 18, 2023 by a700hitter

[notin]

Well, there is no plan for 2b and SS. At least there are RP options to talk about IN THE RELIEF PITCHING THREAD.

 

 

So other positions cannot be mentioned in passing?