Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[mvp 78]

As Bellhorn alluded to, it's not really a question of whether Bloom knows how to acquire good starters, it's that he ultimately chooses not to.

 

He doesn't know how to acquire starting rotation arms under the qualifications he's currently set up.

[moonslav59]

As Bellhorn alluded to, it's not really a question of whether Bloom knows how to acquire good starters, it's that he ultimately chooses not to. We've been hearing every winter that the Sox have interest in this arm or that, but all Bloom has done is replace one serviceable big leaguer with another on short contracts. Eovaldi and Wacha weren't Hall of Famers, but they did fine in Boston. They just wanted more money than the ghosts of Kluber and Paxton.

 

This past winter finally revealed offers made to legit starters who signed elsewhere -- such leaks were either an attempt to show the fanbase he was actually trying to improve the rotation... or that he was incapable of closing the deal for those he covets.

 

For those who think Bloom will someday trade prospects, instead of paying for arms, he's been in charge of four offseasons... and someday never comes.

 

For whatever reasons, Bloom seems to have been forced, at times, or chosen to not spend much on the rotation.

 

In 2020, he barely had anything to spend on any positions. His biggest signing was a SP'er though:

Martin Perez: $6M- not a horrible signing, and as it turned out, he became a pretty good SP'er the minute he left the Sox.

 

In 2021, Bloom's budget was limited, and he did spend a pretty good percent of the winter budget on the rotation, but trying to find 2-3 quality SP'ers on less than $20M is not something one should get high expectations over:

Richards $10M- did okay in the pen, but was a failure

MPerez II $5M- Had a 3.51 ERA after 11 starts but came unglued. Failure. Was very good for Texas in 2023.

 

I actually think Bloom did a fine job with his 2023 pitcher signings. The Story signing took a big chunk of the budget up, as did the JBJ trade, but he spent a good chunk on SP'ers and some on the pen. Again, what can be expected from spending $18M on 3 starters?

$7M Wacha- turned into a very good signing, despite time missed due to injury.

$6M Paxton- was made more for 2023, but looks like a failure.

$5M R Hill- another very good signing, for the money\

(Pen: Diekman and Strahm- a 50-50 choice.)

 

Bloom's best SP moves were from Rule 5 (Whitlock) and trades (Pivetta).

 

His 2023 choice:

$10M Kluber

(Pen adds: Jansen, Martin, JRod, Mills, Bleier)

 

I may be in the small minority that sees more promise with the rotation and the future outlook of our rotation than at any time since the start of the 2019 season.

 

Sale finally looks healthy.

Kluber looked like a better choice than Richards & Paxton.

Whitlock is under team control for several more years, thanks to Bloom.

Paxton is a pure dice roll.

Bello looks like the real deal, to me

Pivetta seems to be one of MLB's best 5th starters, but that only works, if we have 4 better than him, which I think we do, now.

 

Added to these 6 are some promising young pitchers and prospects. We may only need 1-2 to do well:

Houck should be in the pen, but he can be a decent 4-5 IP SP'er.

Crawford & Winckowski

Mata, Walter & Murphy

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

He doesn't know how to acquire starting rotation arms under the qualifications he's currently set up.

 

Agreed.

 

It takes time to draft and develop SP'ers.

 

It is hard to find quality pitching at $10M for one or $16M for 2 or $17M for 3, which is what he has spent, depending on how you want to look at it.

 

Once can argue that he could have spent the money spent on Ottavino, JBJ, Diekman, Marwin, Andriese and others to upgrade over Richards, Perez I and Perez II, but he got some of those other spending choices right (Kike, Renfroe, Wacha, Hill, Strahm and others.)

[mvp 78]

For whatever reasons, Bloom seems to have been forced, at times, or chosen to not spend much on the rotation.

 

In 2020, he barely had anything to spend on any positions. His biggest signing was a SP'er though:

Martin Perez: $6M- not a horrible signing, and as it turned out, he became a pretty good SP'er the minute he left the Sox.

 

In 2021, Bloom's budget was limited, and he did spend a pretty good percent of the winter budget on the rotation, but trying to find 2-3 quality SP'ers on less than $20M is not something one should get high expectations over:

Richards $10M- did okay in the pen, but was a failure

MPerez II $5M- Had a 3.51 ERA after 11 starts but came unglued. Failure. Was very good for Texas in 2023.

 

I actually think Bloom did a fine job with his 2023 pitcher signings. The Story signing took a big chunk of the budget up, as did the JBJ trade, but he spent a good chunk on SP'ers and some on the pen. Again, what can be expected from spending $18M on 3 starters?

$7M Wacha- turned into a very good signing, despite time missed due to injury.

$6M Paxton- was made more for 2023, but looks like a failure.

$5M R Hill- another very good signing, for the money\

(Pen: Diekman and Strahm- a 50-50 choice.)

 

Bloom's best SP moves were from Rule 5 (Whitlock) and trades (Pivetta).

 

His 2023 choice:

$10M Kluber

(Pen adds: Jansen, Martin, JRod, Mills, Bleier)

 

I may be in the small minority that sees more promise with the rotation and the future outlook of our rotation than at any time since the start of the 2019 season.

 

Sale finally looks healthy.

Kluber looked like a better choice than Richards & Paxton.

Whitlock is under team control for several more years, thanks to Bloom.

Paxton is a pure dice roll.

Bello looks like the real deal, to me

Pivetta seems to be one of MLB's best 5th starters, but that only works, if we have 4 better than him, which I think we do, now.

 

Added to these 6 are some promising young pitchers and prospects. We may only need 1-2 to do well:

Houck should be in the pen, but he can be a decent 4-5 IP SP'er.

Crawford & Winckowski

Mata, Walter & Murphy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The starters were 18th in fWAR in 2022. They were not a good rotation. The plan was bad. It relied on older, injury prone guys.

 

We'll see how the rotation holds up for 2023. At some point, I don't think you can keep making excuses about the budget for Bloom. He has had a few years to clear out the old contracts. The only real weight on there now is Sale. The rest of the contracts are all on Bloom. If he can't create a competent rotation because of one bad contract, he needs to go.

[notin]

He doesn't know how to acquire starting rotation arms under the qualifications he's currently set up.

 

He knows how to get them; he just doesn’t commit to them.

 

This could be part of an overall philosophy that starting pitching is a bad way to build a team. While contrary to what we all grew up with, it also certainly has become a methodology that has shown to have massive flaws, especially when done “the easy way,” i.e. using free agency.

 

If they win with a substandard rotation, I don’t care. But I do if they lose with one…

[moonslav59]

The starters were 18th in fWAR in 2022. They were not a good rotation. The plan was bad. It relied on older, injury prone guys.

 

We'll see how the rotation holds up for 2023. At some point, I don't think you can keep making excuses about the budget for Bloom. He has had a few years to clear out the old contracts. The only real weight on there now is Sale. The rest of the contracts are all on Bloom. If he can't create a competent rotation because of one bad contract, he needs to go.

 

Yes, the 2022 rotation was bad. I jst pointed out that Bloom's additions were not the major problem, but yes, the injuries to almost all our starters hurt, including the ones Bloom acquired.

 

Per dollar, though, the SP signings were pretty good.

 

BWAR Pitching 2022

3.3 Wacha

2.7 Schreiber

2.6 Pivetta

1.8 Whitlock

1.6 Houck

1.5 Nate

0.8 Hill

0.7 Sawamura

0.4 Bello

0.3 Bazardo

0.3 Strahm

0.3 Diekman

0.2 Kelly

 

Red= non Bloom guys

BOLD= recent additions

 

fWAR

1.8 Hill

1.7 Schreiber

1.5 Wacha

1.5 Pivetta

1.4 Whitlock

 

I'm just saying, Bloom's recent SP'er additions were pretty good, especially for the dollars spent.

 

It wasn't enough to make a difference, and yes, the injuries to Wacha and Hill hurt.

[moonslav59]

He knows how to get them; he just doesn’t commit to them.

 

This could be part of an overall philosophy that starting pitching is a bad way to build a team. While contrary to what we all grew up with, it also certainly has become a methodology that has shown to have massive flaws, especially when done “the easy way,” i.e. using free agency.

 

If they win with a substandard rotation, I don’t care. But I do if they lose with one…

 

The only two he should have "commited to," in hindsight, are Springs and maybe Perez. (Let's see how Perez does in 2023.)

[moonslav59]

I said that about Winks stuff too in the past. I think his stuff has taken a step forward, I don't think he's great or going to be a superstar or really even close. But I'm much more convinced he has an MLB career ahead of him. He might be fine as a swingman/ middle relief type here for a few years.

 

I have a feeling we are going to see more of him this year. I think he's going to be on that Woo-Sox shuttle all year.

 

Do you still have Crawford ahead of Winck, as I believe you stated a few weeks ago?

 

Maybe, tonight's start might make a difference?

[vegasbob]

The only two he should have "commited to," in hindsight, are Springs and maybe Perez. (Let's see how Perez does in 2023.)

 

It's early, but Perez got a win this weekend going 5 2/3s allowing only 1 run, BUT gave up 8 hits and 3 walks , almost 2 baserunners per inning. probably one timely hit would have sunk him.

[Bellhorn04]

It's early, but Perez got a win this weekend going 5 2/3s allowing only 1 run, BUT gave up 8 hits and 3 walks , almost 2 baserunners per inning. probably one timely hit would have sunk him.

 

He was going against a pretty good offense, though.

[mvp 78]

He was going against a pretty good offense, though.

 

Yes, also not a very good pitcher though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He knows how to get them; he just doesn’t commit to them.

 

 

I know this is the pitching thread, but that statement sums up the musical chairs roster every year that endears zero fans and builds no continuity for future following.

 

This list doesn't include all fan favorites, but guys who at least did more than contribute... and then were gone: Schwarber, Iglesias, Renfroe, Wacha, Strahm...

 

And now somebody will defend poor Bloom for not being able to afford to pay guys he actually acquired.

[moonslav59]

I know this is the pitching thread, but that statement sums up the musical chairs roster every year that endears zero fans and builds no continuity for future following.

 

This list doesn't include all fan favorites, but guys who at least did more than contribute... and then were gone: Schwarber, Iglesias, Renfroe, Wacha, Strahm...

 

And now somebody will defend poor Bloom for not being able to afford to pay guys he actually acquired.

 

No need to defend. The budget is what it is.

 

We still have Dugo, Pivetta, Kike, Arroyo, Schreiber, Refsnyder and Wong.

 

Bloom extended Devers and Whitlock.

 

He did not trade Bello, Houck, Casas and others.

[notin]

Agreed.

 

It takes time to draft and develop SP'ers.

 

It is hard to find quality pitching at $10M for one or $16M for 2 or $17M for 3, which is what he has spent, depending on how you want to look at it.

 

Once can argue that he could have spent the money spent on Ottavino, JBJ, Diekman, Marwin, Andriese and others to upgrade over Richards, Perez I and Perez II, but he got some of those other spending choices right (Kike, Renfroe, Wacha, Hill, Strahm and others.)

 

Even longer if you never draft any…

[moonslav59]

Even longer if you never draft any…

 

...or sign as IFAs.

 

True nuff.

 

At least he didn't trade away Houck, Bello, Mata ...

[sk7326]

The rotation has a bit of a higher floor with Kluber, the several starts we get from Sale before he gets tears his wrist while flipping an omelet. It's a slow start for sure - and with the defense the team is putting out there, there is nowhere for the pitching to hide. One of the things to watch all season is the BABIP. .403 won't last ... but let's put it this way ... the 2015 Royals, this group of fielders isn't.

[notin]

...or sign as IFAs.

 

True nuff.

 

At least he didn't trade away Houck, Bello, Mata ...

 

Houck is probably tradable. He’s a good RP, but Winckowski is looking good in that role so far. And many think Mata could excel in that role, too…

[notin]

The rotation has a bit of a higher floor with Kluber, the several starts we get from Sale before he gets tears his wrist while flipping an omelet. It's a slow start for sure - and with the defense the team is putting out there, there is nowhere for the pitching to hide. One of the things to watch all season is the BABIP. .403 won't last ... but let's put it this way ... the 2015 Royals, this group of fielders isn't.

 

I do wish they’d just signed a short term shortstop instead of moving Kike. But then very likely no Duvall, and the early returns on Duvall are worth it so far…

[Hugh2]

Remember when I wanted the Sox to sign Senga…good times.

[Maxbialystock]

Agree rotations have stunk. Disagree that’s on Bloom. Sox have traditionally bought starters. See especially 2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018. Bloom needs time to develop starters/pitchers as he did in Tampa.

[Bellhorn04]

Agree rotations have stunk. Disagree that’s on Bloom.

 

No, just about everything is on him now.

[Bellhorn04]

Houck is probably tradable. He’s a good RP, but Winckowski is looking good in that role so far. And many think Mata could excel in that role, too…

 

Houck has had our best starting performance so far.

[mvp 78]

...or sign as IFAs.

 

True nuff.

 

At least he didn't trade away Houck, Bello, Mata ...

 

They sign IFA's. The IFA's are just FAR away. All of the upcoming Bloom SP's are IFA's.

[mvp 78]

No need to defend. The budget is what it is.

 

We still have Dugo, Pivetta, Kike, Arroyo, Schreiber, Refsnyder and Wong.

 

Bloom extended Devers and Whitlock.

 

He did not trade Bello, Houck, Casas and others.

 

The budget is Bloom's. If he can't find room for a starting rotation, that's his fault...

[mvp 78]

No, just about everything is on him now.

 

Aside from Sale, there isn't much left to blame on DD. Maybe the lack of talent in the high minors, but Bloom made enough trades (or should have) to fix that.

[mvp 78]

Agree rotations have stunk. Disagree that’s on Bloom. Sox have traditionally bought starters. See especially 2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018. Bloom needs time to develop starters/pitchers as he did in Tampa.

 

Who is he currently developing?

[Bellhorn04]

They sign IFA's. The IFA's are just FAR away. All of the upcoming Bloom SP's are IFA's.

 

So too far to save Chaim's job.

[mvp 78]

So too far to save Chaim's job.

 

Wikelman 2018 IFA (DD) - ETA 2025!

Perales 2019 IFA (DD) - ETA 2026!

ERC 2021 Draft - ETA 2026!

Paez 2021 IFA - ETA 2026!

 

Unless Mata or Walter is going to come up and be lights out, there is no path to fixing the rotation this year outside of the veterans turning it around.

 

Sale - who knows what he can do??? He just hasn't really pitched in forever.

Kluber - bad outing and should be able to at least be a mid-rotation guy.

Whitlock - hasn't been a fulltime starter in MLB.

Bello - showed promise after first few starts last season. Maybe a #2?

Paxton - always injured. Can't count on him for even 5 starts this season.

Pivetta - fine as a #5.

 

As we all said in the offseason, this rotation has a high ceiling, but a very low floor. Right now, we are seeing the floor.

[moonslav59]

The budget is Bloom's. If he can't find room for a starting rotation, that's his fault...

 

I don't disagree, and if you are not going to draft pitchers, you better sign and get right your pitcher signings.

 

In terms of FA signings, Bloom has spent a pretty big percentage of his winter budgets on SP'ers. The problem was, in many cases, he needed 2-3 SP'ers and the budget was what it was.

 

2020: (We need 4 SP'ers added, since Sale & ERod were out all year.) We spent $6/13 on SP.

$6M Perez

$4.2 Pillar

$2.9 Peraza

 

2021: (We needed 3 SP'ers) We spent $15/30 on SP.

$10 Richards

$7M x 2 Kike

$5M Perez II

$3.1 Renfroe

$3.0 Marwin

1.8 D Santana

(We spent about $8M on the Ottavino trade.)

 

2022: (We needed 2-3 SP'ers and 4-5 RP'ers.) We spent $18.5M/47M on SP & $25.5M on all pitch8ing.)

$23.3 x 6 Story

$7.0M Wacha

$6.5M Paxton

$5M R Hill

$4 x 2 Diekman

$3.0M Strahm

$1.5M T Shaw

(We spent some on the JBJ trade, after subtracting Renfroe's salary)

 

2023: $10M/$71M on SP and $35M/71 on pitching

$18M x 5 Yoshida (plus posting fee)

$16 x 2 Jansen

$10.9 Turner

$10M Kluber

7.0 Duvall

$6.8 x 2 Martin

$2M Rodriguez

$2M Alfaro (minors)

No doubt, Bloom could have spent more on SP'ing, especially instead of the Story & Yoshida signings, but I'm not sure, even using 20-20 hindsight we could have scored great pitching with those 2020 & 2021 winter budgets.

 

Yes, it's Bloom's fault for not making better choices with his SP'er signings, and he could have chose to rob Peter to pay Paul and focused more on pitching. That's on him.

 

He also chose the Devers extension over pitching. Maybe this was not fully "his choice."

 

[moonslav59]

Wikelman 2018 IFA (DD) - ETA 2025!

Perales 2019 IFA (DD) - ETA 2026!

ERC 2021 Draft - ETA 2026!

Paez 2021 IFA - ETA 2026!

 

Unless Mata or Walter is going to come up and be lights out, there is no path to fixing the rotation this year outside of the veterans turning it around.

 

Sale - who knows what he can do??? He just hasn't really pitched in forever.

Kluber - bad outing and should be able to at least be a mid-rotation guy.

Whitlock - hasn't been a fulltime starter in MLB.

Bello - showed promise after first few starts last season. Maybe a #2?

Paxton - always injured. Can't count on him for even 5 starts this season.

Pivetta - fine as a #5.

 

As we all said in the offseason, this rotation has a high ceiling, but a very low floor. Right now, we are seeing the floor.

 

There are slivers of hope with Crawford and Winckowski, but you are right.

 

We have 6 SP'ers that need to fill 5 slots well or 4 slots very well. It's not impossible, looking at those 6, but it's hard to think it's probable after these first 4 starts.

 

Mata might be our saving grace, or someone like Whitlock or Bello pitching like or near ace level, but it looks like our pen will need to carry more weight, this year, and it does look better than it has been since 2019 or maybe even 2018.