Yankees 2023 Season Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

With the players reporting, it is time to renew the year's old tradition of the Yankees in season thread. This year promises to be one of intrigue and hope while also having a strong possibility of rage and disappointment. The Yanks came off a strong start to 2022 with a dud of a second half. They rallied to move onto the ALCS but got stomped by the Astros, who still have their number. They saw their offense wilt as the year went on and instead of add to the offense, they stood pat and added to the pitching staff. They do have some very solid young players right on the brink of being ready and a young UTIL guy in Oswaldo Cabrera who is likely to be starting in LF on opening day. If the kids come through, we should be hanging banner 28. If the offense stumbles again, we will not be close to that lofty goal.

 

In terms of offense...

 

C: Trevino, backup Higgy. We got a gold glove performance and an unexpected offensive renaissance from Trevino. Asking him to hit like this again is likely a fools errand, but the kid can catch. Higgy is a quality backup with some pop. Yanks do not need to add here. They do have Austin Wells coming down the pipe, but he might be moved off position. Beyond these two, depth is low

 

1B: Rizzo- Rizzo had a banner year in 22. He is a lefty power hitter in YS and should be helped by the banning of the shift. If he can stay healthy and avoid back woes, he could post stupid numbers in 23

 

2B: Torres- long rumored to be dealt, the Yanks held onto him and decided to upgrade the rotation via straight cash. Torres had a very solid 22 season and is heading into his prime. His issue is too many deep valleys. If he can get some level of consistency as he enters his prime, he could be a deadly bat in this order. Should the Yankees get the push from Volpe they are expecting, Torres could be an interesting trade piece at the deadline if he continues to be frustratingly hot and cold

 

SS: IKF will start, but this will be Peraza's job by June. IKF is a solid defender with a good bat to ball skill and baserunning skill who otherwise brings nothing offensively to the table. Peraza has the glove to stick and the bat to hit for average and probably 20ish bombs a year.

 

3B: Lemahieu- If DJ is healthy, he is the starting 3b on this team. Donaldson will see time, likely vs lefties, which will drop Lemahieu's stat line a bit. It will be important to get Donaldson some ABs as Lemahieu has proven to be a bit fragile

 

LF: Cabrera- kid put up some video game level defensive numbers in his 44 games and got hot at the end of the season. He could be a very sneaky level player for the Yanks who could have high OBP and power numbers mixed with stellar defensive numbers to produce a surprising WAR. Or he could come into the year and not make the adjustments teams will invariably do and end up back in Scranton. Hicks will be backing him up. Hicks is essentially a corpse at this point

 

CF: Bader- love this guy. GG level defense with some pop mixed in. Offense might be average, but should shine with the baserunning and might see a lot of good pitches to hit in this lineup. He's also going into FA after 23, so he's a pick to pop

 

RF: Judge- all rise. Guy is a future HOFer. Team far too reliant on his performance. Expecting another 22 is stupid. But with no shift, his numbers might inflate

 

DH: Stanton- guy is a world beater when healthy, but he rarely is. Last year he started off on fire, cooled off a bit and then got hurt. Came back looking like his legs were gone. They need to look at him and DJ and essentially treat them like fragile china dolls to nurse them to health by PO time. A healthy Stanton in the POs can yield some dividends

 

Overall- I see the Yanks offense crushing bad teams and still being handled by good pitching. They don't have the guys who work counts like they used to have beyond Judge and they lack a lot of contact skill to counteract the high octane K pitchers. The only counter here is the shift. Bashers took the biggest hit when the shift started. Their screaming liners into the pull side went from hits to outs and their averages plummeted. If the shift allows these bombers to see higher averages, then we could enter territory we have not seen since 2009

 

SPI: Cole- ace level guy who gets a bad rap. He's been nails for the Yanks, unless he faces Devers

SP2: Rodon- Likely to be a 5+ IP pitcher but can be dominant. Yankee stadium has been good to lefties and this guy is a good one

SP3: Sevy- in his walk year and after a year where the Yanks mothballed him for 2 months against his will, he will be looking for a big springboard year before FA. I expect him to have a monster year

SP4: Cortes- I love this guy. Reminds me of old school pitchers and has the stuff and location to match. Should have a solid season as long as he is healthy

SP5: German- I think German wins this role. He's got a deep arsenal and has proven capable of being a back end starter. I know Schmidt is the higher end pick, but Schmidt is also the better reliever due to his high GB rate and wipeout slider.

 

CL: Holmes- if healhy, he will dominate

SU: Trivino- was nails after coming over to NY

SU: Kahnle- coming off two injured seasons but showed top notch stuff at end of 22. Could be a steal

MR: Peralta- coming off a dominant year, should be in the mix for saves when Holmes is out

MR: Loaisiga- was dominant in 21, stunk to start 22 and ended being dominant

MR: King- outside chance he makes it onto the OD roster. I am leery about elbow fractures, but if he shows the same stuff as before, he will jump the pecking list

MR: Marinaccio- dominant start to his career. Firmly affixed in the Yanks plans

 

Overall, this team should be even better with the more balanced schedule. The AL East was a buzzsaw and they won 99 games. They should eclipse 100 with the other divisions having very little depth and the Yanks not seeing their own division as much. The biggest question will come in the POs. Can the team arrive there with their stars not banged up. Can they have some jobs be taken by hot shot kids. Can they hit now that the shift is dead? Can they make enough contact against dominant pitchers? Lots of questions, but still should be a good year for the boys in the Bronx. Go Yanks

[moonslav59]

Why does how well some Yankee players did at the end of 2022 matter so much, but not with guys like Turner?

[bkzwhitestrican]

Because he's a Red Sux, duh

[moonslav59]

Because he's a Red Sux, duh

 

It is pretty telling that only 2 Yankee players finished '23 strongly.

[notin]

The Yanks biggest issue is already clear - starting pitcher health, just like Boston.

 

Montas is already down. Cortes is injured, but likely not seriously. Rodon and Severino are accidents waiting to happen. So the question might how far can Cole and German carry this team?

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yanks biggest issue is already clear - starting pitcher health, just like Boston.

 

Montas is already down. Cortes is injured, but likely not seriously. Rodon and Severino are accidents waiting to happen. So the question might how far can Cole and German carry this team?

 

Yanks starting pitching will be dynamite if they can stay healthy. Their upside outstrips nearly every rotation in baseball. They have some depth with Schmidt already on the big league roster and Brito, Vasquez, Warren and Gomez in the high minors. I am not really worried about the pitching. They've got the arms in the pen and rotation and then in the minors to be a dominant staff. But they need to hit good pitching and they've almost been entirely incapable of doing so the past 3-4 years

[jacksonianmarch]

Why does how well some Yankee players did at the end of 2022 matter so much, but not with guys like Turner?

 

Turner might do very well in Boston. Or he might succumb to father time. Either way, his performance is moot on a team that is gonna s*** the bed

[notin]

Yanks starting pitching will be dynamite if they can stay healthy. Their upside outstrips nearly every rotation in baseball. They have some depth with Schmidt already on the big league roster and Brito, Vasquez, Warren and Gomez in the high minors. I am not really worried about the pitching. They've got the arms in the pen and rotation and then in the minors to be a dominant staff. But they need to hit good pitching and they've almost been entirely incapable of doing so the past 3-4 years

 

 

“If they can stay healthy” is the point.

 

A healthy Sale/Paxton/Kluber/Whitlock/Pivetta has just as much potential as the Yankees rotation. But it’s also not likely all of them stay healthy. And Bello - if healthy - can only make up for one.

 

Also - Schmidt is a relief pitcher. The Yankees need to wake up to that fact…

[bkzwhitestrican]

“If they can stay healthy” is the point.

 

A healthy Sale/Paxton/Kluber/Whitlock/Pivetta has just as much potential as the Yankees rotation.

 

 

Maybe Sale/Kluber/Paxton from 5 years ago. The difference is that Cole/Rodon/Severino/Cortes are in their prime. What does a healthy Sale even look like at this point? Same for Paxton. Kluber was healthy last year and had a 4.34 ERA.

[notin]

Maybe Sale/Kluber/Paxton from 5 years ago. The difference is that Cole/Rodon/Severino/Cortes are in their prime. What does a healthy Sale even look like at this point? Same for Paxton. Kluber was healthy last year and had a 4.34 ERA.

 

Severino has thrown 120 IP since 2018. Even Sale and Paxton have thrown more. While the bulk of Severino’s IP did come last year, he was hardly without incident. He made as many starts after June as he made during June.

 

But hey, he’s in his prime!!

[bkzwhitestrican]

The point I'm trying to make isn't about who is healthier, but what can you reasonably expect from either pitcher if they were actually healthy.

 

Severino pitched 102 innings last year with a 3.18 ERA. He's still only 28 years old. Sale will be 34 years old this year and his last sort of healthy year was 2019 when he pitched to a 4.40 ERA. Paxton is also 34 years old and his last sort of healthy year was 2019 when he pitched to a 3.82 ERA. If both were healthy this year should we expect them to pitch better than when they were 3 years younger? Maybe marginally since they should be "fresh" from not pitching for so long, but to say a healthy Sale/Paxton/Kluber is on par with a healthy Cole/Rodon/Severino seems a little delusional.

[moonslav59]

Turner might do very well in Boston. Or he might succumb to father time. Either way, his performance is moot on a team that is gonna s*** the bed

 

The more you talk, the more I get pumped up about our chances.

[Bellhorn04]

The point I'm trying to make isn't about who is healthier, but what can you reasonably expect from either pitcher if they were actually healthy.

 

Severino pitched 102 innings last year with a 3.18 ERA. He's still only 28 years old. Sale will be 34 years old this year and his last sort of healthy year was 2019 when he pitched to a 4.40 ERA. Paxton is also 34 years old and his last sort of healthy year was 2019 when he pitched to a 3.82 ERA. If both were healthy this year should we expect them to pitch better than when they were 3 years younger? Maybe marginally since they should be "fresh" from not pitching for so long, but to say a healthy Sale/Paxton/Kluber is on par with a healthy Cole/Rodon/Severino seems a little delusional.

 

ERA is not a reliable stat in itself.

[bkzwhitestrican]

ERA is not a reliable stat in itself.

 

True but I'm lazy and I think ERA (over the course of a season) is a pretty good indicator for pitching performance. You can disagree with that if you want but then that's a whole separate conversation.

[Bellhorn04]

True but I'm lazy and I think ERA (over the course of a season) is a pretty good indicator for pitching performance. You can disagree with that if you want but then that's a whole separate conversation.

 

OK, well, as far as 2019 is concerned, Sale was likely pitching hurt.

 

In 2021 he registered a 3.16 ERA in a small sample of 42.2 innings.

 

His career ERA is 3.03.

 

I don't think anyone would argue Chris Sale is a 4.40 ERA guy when he's healthy.

 

Factor in age, and a reasonable projection of his ERA this year would be 3.40 or something like that.

[Bellhorn04]

The more you talk, the more I get pumped up about our chances.

 

And he really is talking some s**t these days LOL

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox will be a 4th or 5th place team and you know it

[moonslav59]

The Sox will be a 4th or 5th place team and you know it

 

I think the projection of 4th place is not absurd, but it assumes none of the big 3, NYY, TOR and TBR decline much in 2023.

 

I see a ton of upside with the Sox- perhaps more than some of the teams ranked ahead of them, but of course there is a ton of downside, too.

 

Don't be shocked, if we give you guys a run or finish in 2nd place.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No one is saying the Red Sox are going to be good, but at least they're different, and going into a new season that has to be better.

 

The Yankees that finished the regular season 38-39 and got swept in the playoffs by Houston are just a year older.

 

The fate of both clubs just may rely on similar hopes for health from injury-prone pitchers and contributions from a few promising youngsters.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox will be a 4th or 5th place team and you know it

 

I'm well aware of that possibility. But there's no need to be obnoxious about it.

[moonslav59]

The Yankees that finished the regular season 38-39 and got swept in the playoffs by Houston are just a year older.

 

If you count that sweep and the 3-2 win over CLE, they ended the season at 41-45, and yet these Yankee fans are gloating, like they are defending champs, or something.

 

Yes, projections have them rightfully ranked ahead of us and other ALE teams, but talk about question marks and relying on dubious or injury-prone players. Their list is about as long as ours. The difference is they have 2-3 solid studs in Judge, Cole and maybe Stanton to our one (Devers), but the rest are pretty much as questionable as our and other ALE teams have.

 

Cole: He's let up 9 ERs in his last 20 IP in the postseason. His 3.84 ERA/3.90 FIP over his last 22 starts of 2022 is pretty good, but it does not match:

2.50/2.64 in 2019

2.84/3.89 in 2020

3.23/2.92 in 2021

2.78/2.56 in his first 11 starts of 2022

He turns 33, this year.

 

Judge just had perhaps the best season since Barroid Bonds, and it will be hard for him to repeat that at age 31.

 

Stanton has put together 2 seasons in a row with 450+ PAs at an .821 OPS. He's 33, and these are the 3 Yankee "givens."

 

Now, the questionables:

 

Rodon: He just turned 30 and might have the best starts for a SP'er since 2021, so why is he a question mark? Well, 310 IP in the last 2 seasons is not spectacular, and his record before 2021 can be frightening, depending on what stretch you choose to look at. 9 games started '19-'20 (5.74 ERA). His career numbers before 2021 were fine, but not great (4.14 ERA in 92 GS'd from '15-'20.)

Kluber '15-'20: 134 GS 3.07 ERA

C Sale '15-'20: 147 GS 3.21 ERA

Paxton '15-'20: 119 GS 3.72 ERA

Now, I'd be a hypocrite to say the last 2 years don't mean as much as the previous 6 years, but previous years do matter.

 

Cortes: This kid looks like the real deal, and at age 28, one could rightfully argue he is not in the "questionable category." He's had an awesome 42 starts over the last 2 seasons with a 2.61 ERA, so why am I calling doubt to his projection? Kind of a small sample size.

 

Severino: Soon to be just 29, this guy's GS'd record since 2018 is worse than Sale & Paxton, yet somehow, Yankee fans brush off Sale & Paxton while having high hopes for Sevy. . 2019-2022:

22 GS 2.85 ERA (Much better ERA, but way fewer starts)

36 GS 4.09 Sale

35 GS 4.18 Paxton

 

Montas, German, Schmidt: Some nice depth, but some are hurt and others are up and downers.

 

Holmes: He's had a nice season and a half run, and like Cortes, is close to being off the questionable list, but it's only been his last 93 IP that have been impressive. He was stunning over his first 38 outings in 2022 (0.46 ERA), but his ending raises questions: 24 games

5.92 ERA/ 4.59 FIP and .748 OPSA

 

Loaisiga: He's been a pretty good pitcher for 3 years, but nothing all that great (3.05 ERA/3.21 FIP). Unlike most Yankee pitchers, he did very well after Aug 22, but pretty much sucked over the first 4 months of the season.

 

Peralta: He's had a couple very good seasons with the Yanks

 

Trivino: He finished strongly for the Yanks, but was very unreliable before that.

 

Kahnle, Marinaccio, King, Weissert, Abreu, DGarcia: Meh.

 

Catchers: Trevino & Higgy: .655 team catching OPS in 2022. Good D, though, but these guys are not a net plus.

 

1B: Rizzo turns 34, this year. He has done well with the Yanks 0.804 OPS), but he was showing serious decline since his great 2019 season, except for '22:

.755 2020

.792 2021

.817 2022

 

2B: Torres/LeMahieu: Torres has been trade bait for a couple years and for good reason. He's never come close to how he looked from '18-'19. He's had a .730 OPS over the last 3 seasons.

 

3B: Donaldson/LeMahieu: Josh is a 37 year old cancer growth. DJ is no where near who he was in 2020. He turns 35, this summer and has a .721 OPS since 2021.

 

SS: Kiner-Falefa: Good glove: .642 OPS. Nuff said.

 

LF: Hicks/Cabrera (Stanton): LOL!

 

CF: Bader: Pretty good get by Cashman, but losing Montgomery was horrible. He turns 29, this year and hit .650 in 2022, while playing just over half a season. He's never had more than 427 PAs in a ML season, and that was back n 2018.

 

RF: Judge: He's great, but is highly unlikely to improve or even repeat 2022.

 

DH: Stanton (Donaldson): Stanton slipped to .759 in 2022 at age 32. That's about a hundred points lower than his previous worst season as a rookie baCk in 2010. Once could say he is a question and nasty or Clay are not.

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by moonslav59

[bkzwhitestrican]

If you count that sweep and the 3-2 win over CLE, they ended the season at 41-45, and yet these Yankee fans are gloating, like they are defending champs, or something.

 

 

I'd say it's more optimism than anything, at least in my case. On paper they're bringing back basically the same team as last year that at its best played like the #1 team in the league, and at its worst played like a mediocre team. Nobody knows how things will play out but the thought of our players staying healthy and playing up to their potential (like they did in the first half of last season) is exciting, and like all fan bases we're looking forward to the youngsters getting more playing time and hoping they live up to their prospect hype.

[moonslav59]

I'd say it's more optimism than anything, at least in my case. On paper they're bringing back basically the same team as last year that at its best played like the #1 team in the league, and at its worst played like a mediocre team. Nobody knows how things will play out but the thought of our players staying healthy and playing up to their potential (like they did in the first half of last season) is exciting, and like all fan bases we're looking forward to the youngsters getting more playing time and hoping they live up to their prospect hype.

 

Fair enough. Nothing is a given in baseball.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd say it's more optimism than anything, at least in my case. On paper they're bringing back basically the same team as last year that at its best played like the #1 team in the league, and at its worst played like a mediocre team. Nobody knows how things will play out but the thought of our players staying healthy and playing up to their potential (like they did in the first half of last season) is exciting, and like all fan bases we're looking forward to the youngsters getting more playing time and hoping they live up to their prospect hype.

 

Yanks are bringing back a better team for 2023. Rodon is a definite upgrade to this rotation. He slots into Montgomery's slot from last year. People seem to forget Montgomery was a solid back end guy with NY. He did to go StL and light it up, but in NY he was a serviceable 4 or 5. Rodon has been CY candidate the last two years, so pairing him with Cole at the top is a big upgrade. Outside of Montas, they enter 2023 pretty healthy. We got a good year out of Sevy and he is unscathed right now making the rotation 4 top notch starters deep. Cortes strained a hammy but he's already pitching again.

 

On defense, we add a true blue GG CFer in Bader who pushed Judge back to his GG position in RF. Cabrera in LF and his defensive prowess turns a stretch OF into a lockdown defensive outfield. Lemahieu starts out healthy. He and Donaldson will cover the defensive game at 3b well as they both are GG caliber infielders. IKF and Peraza at SS should turn that position into a defensive plus. Rizzo and Trevino are defensive pluses. Torres is the only defensive minus on the field.

 

On the offensive side is where we have some concerns. Adding Bader and subbing out Hicks should help. Adding Cabrera and subbing out our rotating door of s*** in LF could help or he could be the next kid to pop and then fade and we need to replace him. Peraza should push IKF out of the position at some point and upgrade the O from that position. The removal of the shift should help the bigger bashers in 2023. Rizzo should see a jump in his BA. Stanton should see a bump as well. The biggest question I have is, will the removal of the shift have these guys aiming to make more contact? Once the shift was prevalent, the bigger bombers altered launch angle and saw enormous jumps in K's. If we move back to a more contact driven approach, we could see some positive offensive results. Then again, this lineup has proven to go dormant against good pitching. I know most lineups can go dormant against good pitching, but the Yanks can go from league leading run totals to frustratingly impotent for prolonged stretches. I still question if they have the personnel to win the big games against the big pitchers. But I have little doubt that this team, if reasonably healthy, should run away with this division

[moonslav59]

Yanks are bringing back a better team for 2023. Rodon is a definite upgrade to this rotation. He slots into Montgomery's slot from last year. People seem to forget Montgomery was a solid back end guy with NY. He did to go StL and light it up, but in NY he was a serviceable 4 or 5. Rodon has been CY candidate the last two years, so pairing him with Cole at the top is a big upgrade. Outside of Montas, they enter 2023 pretty healthy. We got a good year out of Sevy and he is unscathed right now making the rotation 4 top notch starters deep. Cortes strained a hammy but he's already pitching again.

 

On defense, we add a true blue GG CFer in Bader who pushed Judge back to his GG position in RF. Cabrera in LF and his defensive prowess turns a stretch OF into a lockdown defensive outfield. Lemahieu starts out healthy. He and Donaldson will cover the defensive game at 3b well as they both are GG caliber infielders. IKF and Peraza at SS should turn that position into a defensive plus. Rizzo and Trevino are defensive pluses. Torres is the only defensive minus on the field.

 

On the offensive side is where we have some concerns. Adding Bader and subbing out Hicks should help. Adding Cabrera and subbing out our rotating door of s*** in LF could help or he could be the next kid to pop and then fade and we need to replace him. Peraza should push IKF out of the position at some point and upgrade the O from that position. The removal of the shift should help the bigger bashers in 2023. Rizzo should see a jump in his BA. Stanton should see a bump as well. The biggest question I have is, will the removal of the shift have these guys aiming to make more contact? Once the shift was prevalent, the bigger bombers altered launch angle and saw enormous jumps in K's. If we move back to a more contact driven approach, we could see some positive offensive results. Then again, this lineup has proven to go dormant against good pitching. I know most lineups can go dormant against good pitching, but the Yanks can go from league leading run totals to frustratingly impotent for prolonged stretches. I still question if they have the personnel to win the big games against the big pitchers. But I have little doubt that this team, if reasonably healthy, should run away with this division

 

It's always been about health for you guys, over the last half decade or more.

 

I'm not sure you can expect the same as 2022 from Rizzo & Donaldson. Judge will have a hard time repeating, too.

 

Your offense is suspect. Your pen is not as loaded as it has been, in recent years.

 

I project first place for you guys, but I do not think it's a lock.

[jacksonianmarch]

Our pen is absolutely loaded. Our issue in the pen is two fold.

 

1. We have one lefty in Peralta, and while he was awesome vs lefties last year, he is usually better vs righties

2. We have Boone managing it. Boone manages the regular season like we are in the World Series, especially early on. He rides the hot hand until they break. He needs to be a little less win at all costs early on to preserve Holmes, king et al.

 

I do agree our offense can be suspect. We will demolish bad or average pitching. We struggle against high powered arms and that has to change

[jacksonianmarch]

Chatter that Schmidt is the leader right now for the 5th spot in the rotation

[Bellhorn04]

Chatter that Schmidt is the leader right now for the 5th spot in the rotation

 

No doubt. Yankee fans will support this wholeheartedly until he throws his first clunker.

[jacksonianmarch]

Volpe is apparently making a big impression with the Yankees coaching staff. His hot start hasnt hurt. I find it VERY unlikely he breaks camp with the Yanks, but I do think he makes his debut this year. More likely, I think, is IKF starts as the SS and Peraza overtakes him. I think Volpe will be promoted to start at 2b when the Yanks deal off Torres for whatever other help they will need, likely in the OF, IMO

[Meh]

Every team has up and downs. Good teams and bad teams. You can say they went xx-xx for just about any team. To meh Cabrera is pretty crazy. Oswaldo imo if he played a full season in the of could be the 2nd best of behind judge between the yankees and red sox. He's got great defense and his bat is solid and he has some untapped power points. He may not be a hall of fame but he's exactly the kind of guy the yankees need.