A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Hall of Famer does trump versatility…

 

I thought we were avoiding political statements!

[notin]

I thought we were avoiding political statements!

 

Just Biden my time…

[moonslav59]

Oh I know, I was really only addressing the point about everyone saying JD was toast after last year. I never said it, I know that much.

 

The Turner signing was fine, I agree with that.

 

It certainly wasn’t everyone, but hyperbole romps on this site. I did not expect JD to do this well, but he started off 2022 very well, too.

[moonslav59]

Just Biden my time…

 

Stop being so Disanctimonius!

[mvp 78]

I was kind of a fan of David Ortiz, myself.

 

Let's bring that guy back!

 

They aren't talking about bringing Yordan Alvarez here, are they?

[notin]

Let's bring that guy back!

 

They aren't talking about bringing Yordan Alvarez here, are they?

 

It’s probably talked about, but that’s really as far as it will ever get…

[Bellhorn04]

Let's bring that guy back!

 

They aren't talking about bringing Yordan Alvarez here, are they?

 

No. But DHs who can OPS .900 like Ortiz and JDM are good to have IMHO.

[mvp 78]

No. But DHs who can OPS .900 like Ortiz and JDM are good to have IMHO.

 

What about ones that OPS 789 for 20M?

[Bellhorn04]

What about ones that OPS 789 for 20M?

 

Everyone has off years.

[mvp 78]

Everyone has off years.

 

He hit 818 from 4/13/21 - 10/3/21. It was more than one off year.

[moonslav59]

He hit 818 from 4/13/21 - 10/3/21. It was more than one off year.

 

Take away those first couple weeks in 2021 and you can add 2020 to the streak of meh.

[Maxbialystock]

It certainly wasn’t everyone, but hyperbole romps on this site. I did not expect JD to do this well, but he started off 2022 very well, too.

 

Maybe JDM fixed his "sucker for a slider" syndrome. I was fine with not re-signing him, and like Turner, his putative replacement.

 

With both Duvall and Story on the sidelines and Devers in a mini-slump, I'm also fine with this year's lineup--so far. I like the current rotation and the bullpen.

[Bellhorn04]

Take away those first couple weeks in 2021 and you can add 2020 to the streak of meh.

 

The facts are that JD hit .867 in the 2021 regular season and 1.135 in the 2021 postseason.

 

The rest is cherry-picking of the negative kind.

[mvp 78]

The facts are that JD hit .867 in the 2021 regular season and 1.135 in the 2021 postseason.

 

The rest is cherry-picking of the negative kind.

 

4/13/21 - 10/3/22 804 OPS isn't really cherry picking. That's a long f***ing time.

2020 - 2022 (all 3 years combined) 806 OPS

[moonslav59]

4/13/21 - 10/3/22 804 OPS isn't really cherry picking. That's a long f***ing time.

2020 - 2022 (all 3 years combined) 806 OPS

 

Turner is .818 and 121 Ops+ from 20-22.

 

JD is .805 and 116 during the same period.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hall of Famer does trump versatility…

 

If we're going to use card-playing metaphors, better stick with spades and just shoot the moon: win all the hearts and the big bad Queen--

 

-- damn, did it again; not that moon... or that queen.

[notin]

If we're going to use card-playing metaphors, better stick with spades and just shoot the moon: win all the hearts and the big bad Queen--

 

-- damn, did it again; not that moon... or that queen.

 

Or that game name. That game is Hearts, not Spades…

[mvp 78]

Figured the age of this board leaned more towards cribbage anyway.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Or that game name. That game is Hearts, not Spades…

 

Queen of Spades (not England)?

[notin]

Queen of Spades (not England)?

 

Yeah the Queen of Spades has lots of (very negative) value in Hearts…

[Bellhorn04]

Turner is .818 and 121 Ops+ from 20-22.

 

JD is .805 and 116 during the same period.

 

What about my 2023 cherries?

[mvp 78]

What about my 2023 cherries?

 

I hope he turns it around this season and plays well. I hold no ill will. I just don't know how much longer he can keep up this level of performance. The 2023 Sox needed a Justin Turner, not a JD Martinez.

[moonslav59]

Figured the age of this board leaned more towards cribbage anyway.

 

I still play bridge, so that really dates me.

[moonslav59]

I hope he turns it around this season and plays well. I hold no ill will. I just don't know how much longer he can keep up this level of performance. The 2023 Sox needed a Justin Turner, not a JD Martinez.

 

One big concern going into 2023 was trusting Casas. We had Dalbec as depth.

 

Turner gives us 1B and 3B depth.

 

If I had to bet, I'd place money on Turner ending up with a higher OPS and certainly a higher fWAR due to playing some decent D.

 

Nothing against JD. The guy brought us glory, but his time, here, was up.

[mvp 78]

One big concern going into 2023 was trusting Casas. We had Dalbec as depth.

 

Turner gives us 1B and 3B depth.

 

If I had to bet, I'd place money on Turner ending up with a higher OPS and certainly a higher fWAR due to playing some decent D.

 

Nothing against JD. The guy brought us glory, but his time, here, was up.

 

1B don't generally earn a lot of value in the field. Even a fairly decent fielder like Mitch Moreland tended to have negative dWAR. He'd get more value if he played 50% at 3B.

[moonslav59]

1B don't generally earn a lot of value in the field. Even a fairly decent fielder like Mitch Moreland tended to have negative dWAR. He'd get more value if he played 50% at 3B.

 

He has played some 3B, and isn't 1B more value than DH, though?

[moonslav59]

I keep hearing about how other teams have so much more talent than us, but let's take a look at teams not named the Rays:

 

Texas is riding high and the numbers don't lie. They have 5 SP'ers with an ERA under 3.84, but deGrom is on the IL and the others are named Nate, Perez, jon Gray and Heaney. I'm not sure those numbers hold up. Their pen is sketchy

Their offense looks pretty solid and deep. None of their top 12 batters by PAs have an OPS below .700. I'm not sure that continues, either, but I do feel like they are beatable. I'm still thinking HOU will pass them for the division win.

 

Hou, speaking of... might be the only team with more key injuries than the Yanks. They only have one batter over .795 and have 9 of their top 12 batters under .722.

 

As mudh as the Yanks were pumped up over the winter, the injuries have killed them, and some aren't or may not be back in '23. They have 3 SP'ers over 5.30, and their pen is nowhere near what they have been in recent years. If our offense looked like NY's, this board would have dumped on them to no end. 6 of their top 12 batters have an OPS under .648 and 8 are under .730. YUCK!

 

BAL has a lot of fine young talent and have been doing very well. It remains to be seen, if they can keep it up. Their rotation is Gibson, Wells, Kremer, Bradish and Rodriguez. Have they been overperforming? Their O looks pretty good, as their top 7 guys are over .701, but after that, it drops off quickly and totally.

 

If we can't stay ahead or TOR by season's end, we don't deserve a playoff slot.

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

I keep hearing about how other teams have so much more talent than us, but let's take a look at teams not named the Rays:

 

Texas is riding high and the numbers don't lie. They have 5 SP'ers with an ERA under 3.84, but deGrom is on the IL and the others are named Nate, Perez, jon Gray and Heaney. I'm not sure those numbers hold up. Their pen is sketchy

Their offense looks pretty solid and deep. None of their top 12 batters by PAs have an OPS below .700. I'm not sure that continues, either, but I do feel like they are beatable. I'm still thinking HOU will pass them for the division win.

 

Hou, speaking of... might be the only team with more key injuries than the Yanks. They only have one batter over .795 and have 9 of their top 12 batters under .722.

 

As mudh as the Yanks were pumped up over the winter, the injuries have killed them, and some aren't or may not be back in '23. They have 3 SP'ers over 5.30, and their pen is nowhere near what they have been in recent years. If our offense looked like NY's, this board would have dumped on them to no end. 6 of their top 12 batters have an OPS under .648 and 8 are under .730. YUCK!

 

BAL has a lot of fine young talent and have been doing very well. It remains to be seen, if they can keep it up. Their rotation is Gibson, Wells, Kremer, Bradish and Rodriguez. Have they been overperforming? Their O looks pretty good, as their top 7 guys are over .701, but after that, it drops off quickly and totally.

 

If we can't stay ahead or TOR by season's end, we don't deserve a playoff slot.

 

 

 

Apropos of your lengthy post, I found tonight's game more encouraging than discouraging.

[moonslav59]

Apropos of your lengthy post, I found tonight's game more encouraging than discouraging.

 

I didn't.

 

We need to beat up on teams like the Reds.

[Dipre]

I mean, they hit a team they should have hit. I just want Rodriguez off this team.