A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Dipre]

To those who think last year's performance is a good indicator of the next season's performance, the 2022>2023 Red Sox must be driving you nutty!

 

Especially the pitchers:

 

The Good

5.89> 2.23 Winckowski

5.47> 3.30 Crawford

4.71> 4.08 Bello

 

The Bad

4.56>5.77 Pivetta

 

The Ugly

3.45> 5.14 Whitlock

3.15> 5.30 Houck

4.34> 6.26 Kluber

3.55> 5.85 Bleier

 

The guy many felt was a fluke has been the closest to consistency:

2.22> 1.12 Schreiber

 

The two guys some felt was over the hill have been just as consistent:

1.46>1.32 Martin

3.38>3.45 Jansen (41 saves in 54 games> 11 in 14)

 

 

 

It's May.

[moonslav59]

I agree with your disagree. The Red Sox love Refsynder as the perfect bench guy, who accepts and thrives in his role.

 

He did pretty well starting vs RHPs, last year, too, so if we ever need him FT, he's not a black hole.

 

He's not a plus defender, but he's okay in LF.

 

Some felt 2022 was a a fluke for Ref. It looks like it was not.

[Dipre]

Refsnyder has a 117 OPS+. He hasn't hit for much power, but that should normalize as the season goes along. Why would he be on the chopping block?

[moonslav59]

It's May.

 

Indeed. I realize that.

 

Things can change, but the differentials are massive, as of now.

[notin]

Refsnyder has a 117 OPS+. He hasn't hit for much power, but that should normalize as the season goes along. Why would he be on the chopping block?

 

He’s redundant when Duvall returns and a DFA clears all roster spots.

 

 

It feels like some folks are running too far with this…

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder has a 117 OPS+. He hasn't hit for much power, but that should normalize as the season goes along. Why would he be on the chopping block?

 

Plus, we are clearly weaker vs LHPs, so he is a high need player in that respect.

[moonslav59]

He’s redundant when Duvall returns and a DFA clears all roster spots.

 

 

It feels like some folks are running too far with this…

 

Yes, Duvall hits RH'd, but he's got one year left, and our OF is overloaded with lefties.

 

I really like Tapia, and if Duran can snap out of this funk, what's not to like about him, too.

 

Duran has options, but if it comes down to Tapia v Ref, I'm keeping Ref.

 

When Story returns, the RH'd option in the OF increases and does make keeping Ref somewhat redundant, but I gotta stick with our wRC+ leader from 2022-2023- better than Devers, Bogey, JD, Dugo, Yoshida and everyone else. Yes, smaller sample size, but he started more games vs RHPs than LHPs in that sample size, so it's not tainted by that.

[moonslav59]

He’s redundant when Duvall returns and a DFA clears all roster spots.

 

 

It feels like some folks are running too far with this…

 

Doubling down on this is going to keep this running for a few more pages.

[moonslav59]

Some Sox 2023 Numbers Pro-Rated to 162 games:

 

.455 81 283 Duvall

.303 21 104 Yoshida

.242 42 142 Devers

.292 15 66 Verdugo (120 runs)

.297 13 85 Duran

.265 19 63 Turner

.243 18 62 Valdez

.286 5 86 Refsnyder

.243 21 55 Wong

.200 21 56 Casas

.235 13 67 Kike

.136 28 76 Chang

 

Pitching

IP W-L Pitcher

188 17-6 Sale

185 6-12 Crawford

179 10-13 Houck

178 17-17 Whitlock

172 10-10 Pivetta

171 14-9 Bello

158 11-11 Paxton

122 7-0 Winckowski

Edited May 29, 2023 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

He’s redundant when Duvall returns and a DFA clears all roster spots.

 

 

It feels like some folks are running too far with this…

 

Duvall is DH at Worcester tomorrow.

[moonslav59]

Let's assume we stay with 13 pitchers and 13 everyday players and everyone is healthy.

 

I'd go with...

 

McGuire/Wong

Casas/Turner

Kike(OF)/Arroyo

Story

Devers

Yoshida/Refsnyder

Duvall/Tapia

Verdugo

 

I'd prefer trading Arroyo and maybe Tapia and Reyes (DFA), but I think Duran & Valdez sent to AAA.

 

C: Wong & McGuire continue as is

1B: Casas v R and some L/ Turner v some L

2B: Kike near FT (CF some games)

SS: Story FT

3B: Devers FT

RF: Dugo FT

CF: Duvall vs most L and all R (Kike some)

LF: Yoshida vs all L and most R (Duvall some)

DH: Turner v all R and some L

No starting roles: Ref/Arroyo/Tapia

[moonslav59]

I hate days off, and we've had a lot, recently.

 

No more scheduled days off for a while, CORA!!!

[notin]

Duvall is DH at Worcester tomorrow.

 

And he might be one in Boston for a short term. But he’s probably the best defensive outfielder in the organization above AA, so I suspect he’ll put on a glove sooner rather than later…

[Dipre]

He’s redundant when Duvall returns and a DFA clears all roster spots.

 

 

It feels like some folks are running too far with this…

 

Refsnyder can play some IF in a pinch, which Duvall cannot, and he's a righty bat on a lefty heavy roster. I don't see it.

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder can play some IF in a pinch, which Duvall cannot, and he's a righty bat on a lefty heavy roster. I don't see it.

 

One point that might affect the choice might be who plays 2B, when Story returns. My guess it will be Kike, but they could uses a Valdez/Arroyo platoon and use Kike in the OF as much as possible with some play at 2B. If Kike is viewed more as an OF'er, that would change the L-R dynamic of the OF:

 

LHP:

Verdugo FT RF

Yoshida LF/DH

Duran AAA?

Tapia Traded?

 

RHB

Duvall CF/LF

Kike CF

Refsnyder LF/ some RF

 

It's not so lopsided, anymore.

[Dipre]

I really want them to roll until Duran as long as possible. That kid has talent.

[notin]

Refsnyder can play some IF in a pinch, which Duvall cannot, and he's a righty bat on a lefty heavy roster. I don't see it.

 

Refsnyder has played 5 games in the infield in his last 6 years, all of them at 1b. I don’t think this versatility is part of his repertoire anymore…

[notin]

I really want them to roll until Duran as long as possible. That kid has talent.

 

He’s the only outsider on the roster with an option. He’ll be back…

[Old Red]

Refsnyder has played 5 games in the infield in his last 6 years, all of them at 1b. I don’t think this versatility is part of his repertoire anymore…

 

Or needed for that matter. Just like the OF the IF has a possible numbers crunch too, and something will have to be done with Arroyo soon.

[moonslav59]

I really want them to roll until Duran as long as possible. That kid has talent.

 

I do, too, but the question might come down to losing Tapia for good vs keeping Duran in the system but at AAA. I prefer Duran in MLB but keeping all options has advantages, too.

 

DFAing Reyes and keeping both sounds great but we’d severely limit our IF depth.

[Old Red]

I do, too, but the question might come down to losing Tapia for good vs keeping Duran in the system but at AAA. I prefer Duran in MLB but keeping all options has advantages, too.

 

DFAing Reyes and keeping both sounds great but we’d severely limit our IF depth.

 

Like I said earlier the next 10-14 days are big for Duran. Play like he has the past week, or so, and it’s a easy decision to send him back down, but play somewhat like he did when he was called up, and it will be a harder decision. At any rate the Red Sox do not need 6 OF. Arroyo will be back soon, and most likely Reyes will be gone anyway. Valdez has come back down to earth too let’s remember all these guys (Duran, Chang, Reyes, and Valdez) were only called up, because of injury. All have contributed, but all can go back down too.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

Logan Allen pitched a gem and CLE beat BAL. Stroman pitched a one hitter to beat the Rays. HOU is losing. The Yanks play SEA, tonight.

[notin]

I do, too, but the question might come down to losing Tapia for good vs keeping Duran in the system but at AAA. I prefer Duran in MLB but keeping all options has advantages, too.

 

DFAing Reyes and keeping both sounds great but we’d severely limit our IF depth.

 

DFA Sherriff and demote Duran. If Sherriff clears waivers AGAIN, then no loss of depth anywhere. If someone claims Sherriff, not really a big loss.

 

Substitute “Bleier” for Sherriff as you please. But I think Bleier is more likely to declare free agency than accept a demotion…

[notin]

Like I said earlier the next 10-14 days are big for Duran. Play like he has the past week, or so, and it’s a easy decision to send him back down, but play somewhat like he did when he was called up, and it will be a harder decision. At any rate the Red Sox do not need 6 OF. Arroyo will be back soon, and most likely Reyes will be gone anyway. Valdez has come back down to earth too let’s remember all these guys (Duran, Chang, Reyes, and Valdez) were only called up, because of injury. All have contributed, but all can go back down too.

 

Can Reyes be demoted without being exposed to waivers?

 

If not, Valdez can…

[moonslav59]

Can Reyes be demoted without being exposed to waivers?

 

If not, Valdez can…

 

According to SPs, Reyes has no options. DFA’ing Reyes or demoting Valdez makes sense when Story returns, but doing it for Duvall leaves our IF depth thin.

 

When is Arroyo due back? Valdez may be demoted for him, leaving 2 infielders without options remaining when Story returns.

[Nick]

I don't see a $75K player getting picked by anyone.

[notin]

According to SPs, Reyes has no options. DFA’ing Reyes or demoting Valdez makes sense when Story returns, but doing it for Duvall leaves our IF depth thin.

 

When is Arroyo due back? Valdez may be demoted for him, leaving 2 infielders without options remaining when Story returns.

 

I think Sherriff is first in line…

[notin]

I don't see a $75K player getting picked by anyone.

 

$750k?

[Nick]

$750k?

 

We paid the A's $75K.

 

Obviously he's earning minimum major league wage.

[moonslav59]

I think Sherriff is first in line…

 

Garza might be close.

 

If anybody takes on part/most of the remaining salaries or Kluver, Pivetta or Bleier, we could deal them for nothing but salary relief. Freeing up more budget space for the deadline might be helpful.

 

I still have Ort ahead or Sheriff and Garza on my DFA list.