A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

Love that "not many teams have 8 hitters over .778 OPS."

 

Unfortunately, however, OPS don't bring home the bacon. Right now the Sox are 9th in MLB in runs scored. Historically--feel free to go as far back as you want to--they need to be 5th or better in runs scored to have any hope of making the postseason.

 

So if their OPS is high, why aren't they scoring runs?

[Old Red]

So if their OPS is high, why aren't they scoring runs?

 

Not enough big hits. Outside of JT who else would you want up there to get a big hit? I believe 9th in runs scored now when they were in top 5 for a long time. Way down the list in HR too. Stats can be very deceiving sometimes.

[mvp 78]

Not enough big hits. Outside of JT who else would you want up there to get a big hit? I believe 9th in runs scored now when they were in top 5 for a long time. Way down the list in HR too. Stats can be very deceiving sometimes.

 

They are 6th in SLG.

[Bellhorn04]

So if their OPS is high, why aren't they scoring runs?

 

August OPS is .688.

[Old Red]

They are 6th in SLG.

 

Even though Raffy’s power numbers are good he’s had a number of long droughts too.

[moonslav59]

Love that "not many teams have 8 hitters over .778 OPS."

 

Unfortunately, however, OPS don't bring home the bacon. Right now the Sox are 9th in MLB in runs scored. Historically--feel free to go as far back as you want to--they need to be 5th or better in runs scored to have any hope of making the postseason.

 

OPS is one of the most related stats to runs scored, and we are not pretty close in rankings in both:

 

OPS

5. LAA .772

6. STL .761

7. BOS .759

8. CHC .754

9. TOR .749

10. BAL & CIN .743

 

Runs

5. CHC 582

6. LAA 567

7. CIN 564

8. BAL 562

9. BOS 556

10. HOU 553

 

We are maybe one 10 run game away from being 7th in both.

 

We are maybe two ten run games from being 6th in both.

[mvp 78]

So the issue is more about the quirkiness of having a certain amount of hitters over an arbitrary OPS line rather than actual production. I see. I guess that's what having a black hole at 2B and SS does for runs scored.

[moonslav59]

Not enough big hits. Outside of JT who else would you want up there to get a big hit? I believe 9th in runs scored now when they were in top 5 for a long time. Way down the list in HR too. Stats can be very deceiving sometimes.

 

Devers, Duran, Duvall, Ref and Reyes have done well, when needed, although these stats may go against "the eye test."

 

OPS Late & Close

1.347 Duvall (.908 High Leverage)

1.064 Reyes (1.018 High Leverage)

.967 Turner (.995)

.855 Duran (.821)

.794 Devers (.922)

.762 Casas (.703)

(.516 Ref .740)

 

RISP

1.031 Devers

1.006 Turner

.964 Reyes

.870 Duran

.812 Dugo

.812 Ref

.790 Yoshida

.751 Duvall

 

[Bellhorn04]

IMHO the offense does its job when they score 5 runs or more, and the defense does its job when they allow 4 runs or less.

[Old Red]

Devers, Duran, Duvall, Ref and Reyes have done well, when needed, although these stats may go against "the eye test."

 

OPS Late & Close

1.347 Duvall (.908 High Leverage)

1.064 Reyes (1.018 High Leverage)

.967 Turner (.995)

.855 Duran (.821)

.794 Devers (.922)

.762 Casas (.703)

(.516 Ref .740)

 

RISP

1.031 Devers

1.006 Turner

.964 Reyes

.870 Duran

.812 Dugo

.812 Ref

.790 Yoshida

.751 Duvall

 

How much of Duvall was early on, and Reyes hasn’t really played enough. Dugy had some bigs hits earlier in the season. Sometimes you have to use the eye test with the stats.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the hitting will be fine. Not having Turner for a couple nights hurt.

 

I think Story and Duvall will find their stride- hopefully sooner rather than later.

 

Not many teams have 8 hitters over .778.

 

.849 Duran

.847 Devers

.839 Yoshida

.826 Turner

.817 Duvall

.779 Reyes

.778 Verdugo

 

Refsnyder is at .728 but .907 v LHPS.

 

 

I'm glad you included Pablo -- tonight's leadoff batter!

[moonslav59]

So the issue is more about the quirkiness of having a certain amount of hitters over an arbitrary OPS line rather than actual production. I see. I guess that's what having a black hole at 2B and SS does for runs scored.

 

Maybe not having many black holes was overblown.

 

Most people tend to think a balanced line-up is better than unbalanced. Maybe that is not the case. It's better to bunch up the hits- not spread them out evenly. Maybe...

[Dipre]

IMHO the offense does its job when they score 5 runs or more, and the defense does its job when they allow 4 runs or less.

 

So simple yet so hard to execute consistently for this team.

[notin]

So if their OPS is high, why aren't they scoring runs?

 

Two out doubles?

[moonslav59]

Sox 2023 line BA/OBP/SLG/OPS

.261/.328/.431/.759

 

RISP

.281/.355/.441/.796

 

Men On Base

.259/.326/.420/.747

 

Late & Close

.266/.363/.426/.789

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Good night all around for the Sox. A rarity.

 

Everyone lost, except BAL, who we probably wanted them to beat HOU.

 

Updated WC Standings

 

TBR +4.0

HOU +1.5

TOR ---

 

SEA -1.5

BOS -4.0

NYY -5.0

LAA -6.5

 

We need to pass two teams with 47 games to go:

 

-2.5 SEA (3 in loss column)

-4.0 TOR (3 in loss column)

-5.5 HOU (5 in loss column)

-8.0 TEX (8 in loss column)

 

We have the 12th best record in MLB at 60-55. That's on pace for 85 wins (84.56.)

-1.5 from 11th (MIL)

-2.0 from 10th (SFG)

-2.5 from 9th (SEA)

-3.5 from 8th (PHI)

-4.0 from 7th (TOR)

 

That being said, we are also just...

+1.0 from 15th/16th/17th/18th tie (CIN, MIN, CHC, NYY)

+2.5 19th LAA

+3.0 20th AZ

+4.5 21st CLE

+5.0 22nd SDP

 

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sox ERA Leaders

20-40 IP

1.41 Martin

2.61 Bernardino

3.05 Jansen

3.23 Murphy

3.33 Schreiber

(Walter is at 3.07 with 14.2 IP)

 

40+ IP

2.86 Winckowski

3.36 Paxton

3.64 Bello

3.80 Crawford

4.16 Pivetta

4.58 Sale

 

The killers:

5.05 Houck (67.2)

7.04 Kluber (55 IP)

5.23 Whitlock (51.2)

5.28 Bleier (30.2)

6.26 K Ort (23.0)

5.85 Jacques (20.0)

6.55 Joely (11.0)

6.75 Dermody (4.0)

 

Offense

OPS Leaders

.846 Devers

.845 Duran

.839 Yoshida

.832 Casas

.827 Turner

.826 Duvall

.800 Reyes

.772 Verdugo

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Offense

OPS Leaders

.846 Devers

.845 Duran

.839 Yoshida

.832 Casas

.827 Turner

.826 Duvall

.800 Reyes

.772 Verdugo

 

Here is a look at other team's leaders:

 

BAL has 11 players over 100 PAs and a .717 OPS, but their leaders are not close to ours:

.838 O'Hearn

.813 Rutschman

.801 Mullins

.801 Santander

.791 Henderson

.791 Mountcastle

.784 Hicks

.763 Hays

.761 Westburg

 

The Rays have 9 guys over 240 PAs and a .753 OPS:

.901 Diaz

.856 Paredes

.847 Raley

.814 Franco

.806 J Lowe

.788 Arozarena

.775 H Ramirez

.773 Siri

.753 B Lowe

 

TOR has 8 guys over 235 PAs and a .729 OPS

.846 Bichette

.815 Belt

.802 Chapman

.787 Guerrero

.769 Merrifield

.751 Kiermaier

.745 Jansen

.729 Springer

[mvp 78]

Good night all around for the Sox. A rarity.

 

Everyone lost, except BAL, who we probably wanted them to beat HOU.

 

Updated WC Standings

 

TBR +4.0

HOU +1.5

TOR ---

 

SEA -1.5

BOS -4.0

NYY -5.0

LAA -6.5

 

We need to pass two teams with 47 games to go:

 

-2.5 SEA (3 in loss column)

-4.0 TOR (3 in loss column)

-5.5 HOU (5 in loss column)

-8.0 TEX (8 in loss column)

 

We have the 12th best record in MLB at 60-55. That's on pace for 85 wins (84.56.)

-1.5 from 11th (MIL)

-2.0 from 10th (SFG)

-2.5 from 9th (SEA)

-3.5 from 8th (PHI)

-4.0 from 7th (TOR)

 

That being said, we are also just...

+1.0 from 15th/16th/17th/18th tie (CIN, MIN, CHC, NYY)

+2.5 19th LAA

+3.0 20th AZ

+4.5 21st CLE

+5.0 22nd SDP

 

 

 

Their pace should look better after this current 10 game stretch against KC/DET/WSH. The two HOU series later this month are far more important and a better barometer of where this team actually is.

 

Hard to get too excited right now? They should be beating up a team with a .316 win %.

[mvp 78]

Two out doubles?

 

I think the original premise was faulty.

 

R - 9th

OBP - 8th

SLG - 7th

OPS - 8th

[moonslav59]

Their pace should look better after this current 10 game stretch against KC/DET/WSH. The two HOU series later this month are far more important and a better barometer of where this team actually is.

 

Hard to get too excited right now? They should be beating up a team with a .316 win %.

 

Agreed, and our poorer record vs weaker teams is the main reason we are this far behind. We need to gain some ground, before we lay the stronger teams, and then keep up our winning percentage vs those stronger teams.

 

We have yet to play the Astros, and probably have to go, at least 4-3 vs them. We need to also win vs TOR, so we can see those TWO GAME SWINGS help us jump one of both of these two teams in the standings.

[moonslav59]

I think the original premise was faulty.

 

R - 9th

OBP - 8th

SLG - 7th

OPS - 8th

 

And when you look at how close we are to being at the same ranking in every category, I don't think we should read too much into one ranking being 1 or 2 slots from another.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, and our poorer record vs weaker teams is the main reason we are this far behind. We need to gain some ground, before we lay the stronger teams, and then keep up our winning percentage vs those stronger teams.

 

We have yet to play the Astros, and probably have to go, at least 4-3 vs them. We need to also win vs TOR, so we can see those TWO GAME SWINGS help us jump one of both of these two teams in the standings.

 

Hopefully, the umps will give them some TWO PITCH SWINGS and allow them two balls every time HOU throws a bad pitch.

[mvp 78]

Just to note:

 

SOX ONLY HAVE 7 PLAYERS OVER 778 OPS. EVERYONE PANIC.

 

Vs LHP, only 6!

[notin]

If Sale, Houck and Whitlock all actually come back healthy and can pitch the last 6 weeks of the season, the Sox’ chances go up immensely…

[Bellhorn04]

If Sale, Houck and Whitlock all actually come back healthy and can pitch the last 6 weeks of the season, the Sox’ chances go up immensely…

 

The pitchin' might get bitchin'

But the lumber must rise from slumber

[Dipre]

Just to note:

 

SOX ONLY HAVE 7 PLAYERS OVER 778 OPS. EVERYONE PANIC.

 

Vs LHP, only 6!

 

Fire Bloom

[Dipre]

If Sale, Houck and Whitlock all actually come back healthy and can pitch the last 6 weeks of the season, the Sox’ chances go up immensely…

 

I mean, there's a non-zero chance that happens.

[mvp 78]

Fire Bloom

 

Brave to say that around all these apologists.

[Dipre]

I'll write up the "future endeavors" letter myself.