A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Question then becomes do we empty the farm JUST to get into the playoffs?

 

I really don't want to give up on our top prospects this year.

 

I'm not sure we ever take the big plunge on a trade for an ace, again.

 

Bloom might have to be handcuffed.

 

I have mixed feelings about making a big trade. We've been pretty lucky with our returns, but any trade is a gamble. We just seem to do better with trades than FAs.

[moonslav59]

The interesting thing about this discussion is that we are having it. The vast majority of talksoxers this season expected the Sox to have a losing record. I was definitely one of them.

 

But you gotta play the games, and statistically--which very few talksoxers, including you (I think), realize--there are no big gaps between/among teams, except the 2 or 3 at the top.

 

Try this on for size. Figure a target of 90 wins to get into the playoffs. That's a winning percentage of .556. The Sox are currently 24-20, winning percentage of .545. If they had won just one more game and were 25-19, they would be at .568, which would translate to 92 wins. As it is, .545 becomes 88 wins in a 162 game season.

 

Last year in the American League the wild card teams won 92 games (Toronto), 86 games (Tampa), and 90 games (Seattle).

 

In 2021 the AL wild card teams were Boston with 92 wins and NYY with 92 wins.

 

Playing way less ALE games was a big part of my belief we'd win much more, this year. We did very well, last year vs non ALE teams, and we got better, on paper. It seemed simple, to me, but the season is far from over, and I could be proven wrong, again.

[Maxbialystock]

My "Realistic View of 2023" is that the Sox are, very surprisingly, definitely in the hunt.

 

And it's not luck--it's the hitting combined with now and then decent pitching which I think is about to get better. Sale, Paxton, and Bello are a good start on a rotation, and backing them up Cora can choose among Kluber, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock (soon to come off the IL), and Crawford (also soon to come off the IL). Jansen's 2 recent blown saves notwithstanding, I think the bullpen will continue to be good, especially with Whitlock and Crawford coming off the IL.

 

Lurking in the distance are Duvall, Story, and Mondesi, who may or may not contribute down the road. Also further injuries, heaven forbid.

[Maxbialystock]

Playing way less ALE games was a big part of my belief we'd win much more, this year. We did very well, last year vs non ALE teams, and we got better, on paper. It seemed simple, to me, but the season is far from over, and I could be proven wrong, again.

 

Good call on fewer ALE games--the "fewer" amounts to 24 games.

[Bellhorn04]

Crawford - 16th round, 2017 draft

Bello - Intl FA, 2017

Casas - 1st round, 2018 draft

Duran - 7th round, 2018 draft

 

All from that old farm-builder Dave.

[Maxbialystock]

Crawford - 16th round, 2017 draft

Bello - Intl FA, 2017

Casas - 1st round, 2018 draft

Duran - 7th round, 2018 draft

 

All from that old farm-builder Dave.

 

Meh.

[Nick]

My favorite topic is coming up with the 'core' group for multiple playoff chase. I do think there's more positive than negative for Bloom.

 

Position Players (under contract as of 2024 + options, if any)

 

CC Wong (5)/McGuire (2)

1B Casas (5)

2B Valdez (5)

SS Story (4+1)

3B Devers (10)

LF Yoshida (4)

CF Duran (5)

RF Verdugo (1)

DH Turner (1)

UT Arroyo (1)

UT Refsnyder (1)

UT Chang (2)

UT Abreau (6)

UT Dalbec (3)

 

I believe this is a good start from which to improve upon. This group can use a power right handed bat that can play 1B and maybe corner outfield. (at least left)

 

Pitching (it appears deep but Starting Pitching is 'thin' from quality standpoint)

SP Sale (1+1)

SP Bello (5)

SP Whitlock (3+2)

SP

SP

CL Jansen (1)

RP Martin (1)

RP Bleier (0+1)

RP Rodriguez (2)

RP Pivetta (1) No I don't want him to start

RP Schreiber (3)

RP Houck (4)

RP Kutter (5)

RP Winckowski (5)

RP Bernardino (5)

RP Sherriff (4)

RP Ort (5)

 

As you can see, I think our bullpen is deep.

 

How do we fill the void at starting pitching?

 

I understand the short term deals to Wacha, Hill, Kluber (I don't think Sox will pick up the option for 2024) but if we are to be a serious player for World Series chase, don't we need something better than a Kluber type signing? (I think we all agree and the answer is yes)

 

This is why we need to keep a close eye on the development of Drohan who was just promoted to AAA. He looks to me like a young Chris Sale. He will be 25 on January 1 so he's not a BABY. I think it was DD that thought the jump from AA to majors was doable. It appears he'll have 4 months to prove himself in AAA. Perhaps he'll be next year's version of this year's Bello.

 

Do we try Kutter? Do we keep working with Houck? Do we give Winckowski another shot? To me, Pivetta is or should be our #7 starter.

 

We're really not that far off. Aren't we just a young Freakin' Sale away from chasing the World Series title?

Edited May 18, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

Cot's show $81M available for next year based on luxury tax limit.

 

Verdugo I'm thinking will need about $10M (he's earning $6.3M this year). Let's say another $10M for arbitration raises.

 

I'm assuming Pivetta will be traded and Kike not signed (along with Duvall).

 

Now we're talking about $60M.

 

We have the money to significantly improve this ball club next year, without going over the limit. We can buy a lot for $80M if we want to go there.

[moonslav59]

Good call on fewer ALE games--the "fewer" amounts to 24 games.

 

We were 52-34, last year outside our division. That's a 98 win team projected over 162 games.

 

I know some posters don't want to hear about that, and it's true, we need to beat teams in our division, and pass at least 1 to make the playoffs, but a losing record?

 

Just the schedule change alone gets us to .500 or better.

[moonslav59]

My favorite topic is coming up with the 'core' group for multiple playoff chase. I do think there's more positive than negative for Bloom.

 

Position Players (under contract as of 2024 + options, if any)

 

CC Wong (5)/McGuire (2)

1B Casas (5)

2B Valdez (5)

SS Story (4+1)

3B Devers (10)

LF Yoshida (4)

CF Duran (5)

RF Verdugo (1)

DH Turner (1)

UT Arroyo (1)

UT Refsnyder (1)

UT Chang (2)

UT Abreau (6)

UT Dalbec (3)

 

I believe this is a good start from which to improve upon. This group can use a power right handed bat that can play 1B and maybe corner outfield. (at least left)

 

Pitching (it appears deep but Starting Pitching is 'thin' from quality standpoint)

SP Sale (1+1)

SP Bello (5)

SP Whitlock (3+2)

SP

SP

CL Jansen (1)

RP Martin (1)

RP Bleier (0+1)

RP Rodriguez (2)

RP Pivetta (1) No I don't want him to start

RP Schreiber (3)

RP Houck (4)

RP Kutter (5)

RP Winckowski (5)

RP Bernardino (5)

RP Sherriff (4)

RP Ort (5)

 

As you can see, I think our bullpen is deep.

 

How do we fill the void at starting pitching?

 

I understand the short term deals to Wacha, Hill, Kluber (I don't think Sox will pick up the option for 2024) but if we are to be a serious player for World Series chase, don't we need something better than a Kluber type signing? (I think we all agree and the answer is yes)

 

This is why we need to keep a close eye on the development of Drohan who was just promoted to AAA. He looks to me like a young Chris Sale. He will be 25 on January 1 so he's not a BABY. I think it was DD that thought the jump from AA to majors was doable. It appears he'll have 4 months to prove himself in AAA. Perhaps he'll be next year's version of this year's Bello.

 

Do we try Kutter? Do we keep working with Houck? Do we give Winckowski another shot? To me, Pivetta is or should be our #7 starter.

 

We're really not that far off. Aren't we just a young Freakin' Sale away from chasing the World Series title?

 

Something will happen, this year that gives Crawford another chance at starting.

 

I once had hopes that just one from Mata, Walter and Murphy could fill a 4 or 5 slot, well, but those hopes have taken a severe hit. Drohan brightens that hope up, some, but you are right, we need to bolster the rotation, and to put it bluntly, I'm pissed off we keep building at the 3-4 slots in hopes we find a #2.

 

At some point we need to shoot for a number 1 and maybe end up with a 2.

 

Maybe it is part of "the plan," but the idea is to wait until the rest of the roster is in place that makes it a team that is an ace away from being a top contender.

 

I don't think any of us have felt we have been that close since 2018 or pre 2019.

 

Your graphic shows the rest of the team is taking shape, so maybe next winter, or this deadline will be the time we make that serious move.

[moonslav59]

Cot's show $81M available for next year based on luxury tax limit.

 

Verdugo I'm thinking will need about $10M (he's earning $6.3M this year). Let's say another $10M for arbitration raises.

 

I'm assuming Pivetta will be traded and Kike not signed (along with Duvall).

 

Now we're talking about $60M.

 

We have the money to significantly improve this ball club next year, without going over the limit. We can buy a lot for $80M if we want to go there.

 

By the end of the season, we should know if we trust Duran to be the FT CF'er, allowing us to let Kike ($10M) and Duvall ($7M) go without replacing them via free agency. Passing on Kluber's option seems a cinch, as of now. Mondesi will likely be gone, too.

 

I've talked about Bloom's first duty being to repair and rebuild the 40 man roster depth and beyond (to the farm,) and he has largely done that, even at the expense of all the tireless 1 year patch signings and not addressing the top of the rotation, but one can ask, "Why add an ace 2-3 years before the team is ready to go for it all??

 

What I like about our 2024 (and beyond) roster look is that most of the positions, except the rotation, has more than one hopeful candidate as well as long term hopes. (The OF is a bit weak on ML ready depth.)

 

C: Wong & McGuire (Hickey)

 

1B: Casas & Turner, plus a less hopeful Dalbec (Jordan/Kavadas)

 

2B: [story?] EValdez & Arroyo (Yorke & Bonaci)

 

SS: [story] Chang & Reyes (Hamilton & Mayer/Romero)

 

3B: Devers Forevers should be all we need (Koss & Paulino)

 

LF: Yoshida (Rosier)

 

CF: Duran (Rafaela & Bleis)

 

RF: Verdugo & Abreu

 

DH: Turner

 

The pen looks fine, despite having some aging RP'ers in the key closer and set-up roles.

 

Short:

Jansen & Martin

Schreiber & Joely

(Mills & Fernandez)

 

Mid/Long:

Houck, Whitlock (SP?) & Pivetta (SP?)

Wink & Crawford

(Mata, Walter & Murphy)

 

The big gaps- the rotation:

 

1. _____

2. Sale

3. _____

4. Bello

5. _____ maybe Whitlock or Pivetta

(Drohan & ______)

3. ____

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Meh.

 

That's just rude, Max. You don't think those 4 are promising?

[mvp 78]

From BTV

 

Yorke (9.8), Anthony (6.5) and Mata (3.8) for Lucas Giolito (20.8)

 

Or

 

Romero (8.7) and Walter (7.8) for Jordan Montgomery (16.1)…

 

Selling low on Anthony IMO.

[mvp 78]

Crawford - 16th round, 2017 draft

Bello - Intl FA, 2017

Casas - 1st round, 2018 draft

Duran - 7th round, 2018 draft

 

All from that old farm-builder Dave.

 

Players that have been in the system longer are more likely to be in MLB. Soon, there will be no more DD guys left to promote.

[Bellhorn04]

Players that have been in the system longer are more likely to be in MLB. Soon, there will be no more DD guys left to promote.

 

You're no fun either. I'm trying to be excited about some homegrown players and this is what I get.

[mvp 78]

You're no fun either. I'm trying to be excited about some homegrown players and this is what I get.

 

It's not my fault that you fell into the Dombrowski farm builder comment trope.

 

I think those players are good. I think the Sox development system isn't a dumpster fire like some people believe.

 

Also, don't expect arms to come through the system anytime soon if you look at how Bloom has amassed talent. It's a hitters first org.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not my fault that you fell into the Dombrowski farm builder comment trope.

 

I think those players are good. I think the Sox development system isn't a dumpster fire like some people believe.

 

Also, don't expect arms to come through the system anytime soon if you look at how Bloom has amassed talent. It's a hitters first org.

 

OK, you got me on the first point.

 

As for Bloom and arms, that is the enigma. If we're not gonna grow 'em, we have to buy 'em or trade for 'em. Which of these things does Chaim actually like?

[mvp 78]

OK, you got me on the first point.

 

As for Bloom and arms, that is the enigma. If we're not gonna grow 'em, we have to buy 'em or trade for 'em. Which of these things does Chaim actually like?

 

Right now, he just likes the DFA guys it seems.

[moonslav59]

Bloom does not strike me as the type of guy that reaches out to GMs to offer big packages of top prospects for an ace or a young and possible ace-to-be, but who knows?

 

I was convinced Ben was going to make a big trade or two, right before he was replaced, but I'll never know on that one.

 

It's hard to imagine parting with Mayer, when SS seems like our second biggest hole, next to ace. Romero is farther away. I had mentioned Casas, last year, but I'm not sure how many teams trade an ace for a 1B prospect, even with his "value" being very high, according to several sites and ranking lists.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

OK, you got me on the first point.

 

As for Bloom and arms, that is the enigma. If we're not gonna grow 'em, we have to buy 'em or trade for 'em. Which of these things does Chaim actually like?

 

I don't know if he likes any of them, but the only one he has done is buy old vets who are either past their primes or trying to comeback from age-related injuries (and yes, both characteristics are interchangeable on the cause-and-effect barometer).

 

And even though Bloom obviously has set a budget limit on the annual salaries he'll pay for starting pitchers, I'll bet someone like Moon can add up all the cut-rate contracts (below market of #1 or #2 guys) expenditures on the Richards, Klubers and Paxtons of the Bloom Era to see just how much the Red Sox -- I won't say wasted -- allocated on rotations...

[moonslav59]

Well, we gained a half game on 3 division rivals, which may not have ever happened, this year.

 

We did lose a half game to our closest rival- the Yanks. We are...

 

-1.0 NYY & TOR

-4.0 BAL

-7.5 TBR

 

In the WC race, all 3 other ALE teams hold all 3 slots, with HOU between us and NYY and TOR

+3 BAL

0 NYY

0 TOR

-0.5 HOU

-1.0 BOS

-2.5 LAA

-3.5 SEA

-4.5 CLE/DET

 

[moonslav59]

I don't know if he likes any of them, but the only one he has done is buy old vets who are either past their primes or trying to comeback from age-related injuries (and yes, both characteristics are interchangeable on the cause-and-effect barometer).

 

And even though Bloom obviously has set a budget limit on the annual salaries he'll pay for starting pitchers, I'll bet someone like Moon can add up all the cut-rate contracts (below market of #1 or #2 guys) expenditures on the Richards, Klubers and Paxtons of the Bloom Era to see just how much the Red Sox -- I won't say wasted -- allocated on rotations...

 

I really think Bloom's SP choices have been made with the budget in mind, but I think there is one significant factor above the budget, particularly the long term budget, and that is TIMING.

 

I think he chose shorter term deals, because the rest of the roster was not good enough to make "the big push." Sure, he could have pooled all the money we spent on shorter term rentals and gotten one better, longer term pitcher 2-3 years ago, but by the time the team was going to be ready for ring competition, that starter would be 2-3 years older, and probably not as good, anymore.

 

I hated the $5-10 bridge starters, but I understood why that was the choice... UNTIL, last winter. Bloom had the budget and a pretty strong and deep foundation with several prospects very near MLB readiness in the wings. IMO, last winter was "the time," but it seems they may feel next winter is- maybe even the one after.

 

Maybe signing one pitcher at $13-15M x 3 years back in 2021 would have worked better, but IMO, the 2 guys (Wacha & Hill) he added, last winter worked out pretty well. The funny thing is, the year we did well, 2021, the two (Richards & Perez) he added sucked.

 

2021: Richards $10M + Perez $6M

2022: Wacha $7M + Paxton $6M + Hill $5M

2023: Kluber $10M + Paxton $4M

 

What one pitcher could we have signed for $48M/3? ($16M x 3)

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know if he likes any of them, but the only one he has done is buy old vets who are either past their primes or trying to comeback from age-related injuries (and yes, both characteristics are interchangeable on the cause-and-effect barometer).

 

And even though Bloom obviously has set a budget limit on the annual salaries he'll pay for starting pitchers, I'll bet someone like Moon can add up all the cut-rate contracts (below market of #1 or #2 guys) expenditures on the Richards, Klubers and Paxtons of the Bloom Era to see just how much the Red Sox -- I won't say wasted -- allocated on rotations...

 

I give Bloom a pass on the low-cost acquisitions up until the past offseason. This offseason I thought we were going to make a bigger acquisition than Corey Kluber.

[mvp 78]

I give Bloom a pass on the low-cost acquisitions up until the past offseason. This offseason I thought we were going to make a bigger acquisition than Corey Kluber.

 

Team would look much better if it was Eflin instead of Kluber. Maybe should have offered him more $$$ rather than trying to stay under the cap?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I really think Bloom's SP choices have been made with the budget in mind, but I think there is one significant factor above the budget, particularly the long term budget, and that is TIMING.

 

I think he chose shorter term deals, because the rest of the roster was not good enough to make "the big push." Sure, he could have pooled all the money we spent on shorter term rentals and gotten one better, longer term pitcher 2-3 years ago, but by the time the team was going to be ready for ring competition, that starter would be 2-3 years older, and probably not as good, anymore.

 

I hated the $5-10 bridge starters, but I understood why that was the choice... UNTIL, last winter. Bloom had the budget and a pretty strong and deep foundation with several prospects very near MLB readiness in the wings. IMO, last winter was "the time," but it seems they may feel next winter is- maybe even the one after.

 

Maybe signing one pitcher at $13-15M x 3 years back in 2021 would have worked better, but IMO, the 2 guys (Wacha & Hill) he added, last winter worked out pretty well. The funny thing is, the year we did well, 2021, the two (Richards & Perez) he added sucked.

 

2021: Richards $10M + Perez $6M

2022: Wacha $7M + Paxton $6M + Hill $5M

2023: Kluber $10M + Paxton $4M

 

What one pitcher could we have signed for $48M/3? ($16M x 3)

 

 

 

If it was Eflin -- who was reportedly offered $40M/3 (which would've made him the costliest "starter" of the Bloom Era, at $13,333,333 AAV) -- then Kluber was a blah Plan B consolation prize.

 

And was it really just coincidence that Bloom's old colleagues were just as interested in his prize target... or that he even had to fall back and take one of their leftovers? Hey, it worked with Wacha -- but can he think outside the Trop and get someone actually good from somewhere with his old Tampa brain before the like-minded Rays nerds out-swoop him?

[Bellhorn04]

Jays signings of Gausman for 5/110 and Bassitt for 3/63 look very good right now. Their combined AAV of 43 million is not chicken feed, but a total risk of 173 million seems reasonable by today's standards.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Jays signings of Gausman for 5/110 and Bassitt for 3/63 look very good right now. Their combined AAV of 43 million is not chicken feed, but a total risk of 173 million seems reasonable by today's standards.

 

Good examples. The Jays are a club that wants to win, willing to pay market prices for good starters.

 

The trade for Berrios hasn't set the world on fire, but it was also the right approach: acquiring a durable All-Star just entering his prime, and then locking him up longterm.

[moonslav59]

I give Bloom a pass on the low-cost acquisitions up until the past offseason. This offseason I thought we were going to make a bigger acquisition than Corey Kluber.

 

Me too, and I'm not backing off my statements that included these phrases...

 

"Make or break winter"

 

"His defining moment"

 

"This is now Bloom's team."

 

That being said, I really did not like any of the big FA pitchers, last winter, so I was okay with not signing Rodon, Verlander, deGrom and some of the other big names, but there were trades made, and he could have blown TB away with an offer for Eflin- not that he is an ace or that I knew he was going to look real good to start 2023. I also don't blame him for not signing Nate to more than the QO he offered him. This does not take him off the hook. he obviously thought he could make up for our short-comings in the rotation by beefing up the O and pen. Let's see, if it works.

 

I do think the rotation showed some promise-perhaps too much promise and not enough actual recent results by the pitchers vying for a slot in the 2023 rotation. I n some ways, the rotation looked more promising that it did in March 2021 and March 2022.

 

1. We had all tired of hoping for Sale's return and many felt that even if he returned for 24+ GS'd, his level might be as a 3rd starter, at best.

2. Paxton? Kinda the same outlook as Sale.

3. Pivetta was viewed as a solid and reliable #5 SP'er that could be okay as a #4, but no better.

4. Kluber was old, but had shown signs of being a good #3. He had more and better recent success than Richards, Perez, Wacha and maybe Hill had before we signed them.

5. Bello had a pretty nice ceiling and finished strongly in 2022.

6. Whitlock was coming off an injury, but had been our best 2021-2022 pitcher.

7. Houck was also coming off an injury and was just about as good as Whitlock from 2021-2022.

8. Interestingly, 2 of our best 2023 pitchers were viewed with the most skepticism in March 2023: Winckowski & Crawford. (they started 26 games, combined in 2022.)

9. Mata, Walter and Murphy offered some glimmer of hope from the farm as ML ready or near ML ready pitchers who had success in 2022 at WOO.

 

That was over 10 pitchers- back in March. I guess Bloom hoped we could find 5 in quicker fashion.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Jays signings of Gausman for 5/110 and Bassitt for 3/63 look very good right now. Their combined AAV of 43 million is not chicken feed, but a total risk of 173 million seems reasonable by today's standards.

 

I meant in 2021, instead of the guys we signed.

 

About this year's signings, for every Gausman and Bassitt, there are 2 or more Rodon & Verlanders.

[Bellhorn04]

Good examples. The Jays are a club that wants to win, willing to pay market prices for good starters.

 

The trade for Berrios hasn't set the world on fire, but it was also the right approach: acquiring a durable All-Star just entering his prime, and then locking him up longterm.

 

Agreed. And you're not going to have a 100% success rate no matter what you do.