A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

Philly can restrict Song to low leverage situations. They can phantom DL him. They can return him, right?

 

And in any case they're a pretty safe bet to make the playoffs.

 

Edit re phantom DL: he has to be on the active roster for 90 days. But that's only half the season.

 

Phantom IL time doesn’t count towards his Rule 5 status. He needs a full season re: 162 games. If the Phillies fake an injury and hide him for 50 games, he will still be a Rule 5 player for the first 50 games of 2024.

 

We saw this kind of thing with Adam Stern (whom the Sox got sick of waiting on and just traded away)…

[notin]

Philly is trying to win a WS, for them to keep Song on the roster doesn't make more sense. I can see why WSH, PIT or OAK would stash him though. I think it's more likely that's how he sticks in MLB this season.

 

Or Philly could complete a trade with Boston for him. Happens all the time..,

[mvp 78]

Or Philly could complete a trade with Boston for him. Happens all the time..,

 

Like I said, Sox should scout him and send Brasier over there.

[moonslav59]

Like I said, Sox should scout him and send Brasier over there.

 

Or Ort.

[mvp 78]

Or Ort.

 

DD likes his guys. He even traded for CJ Chatham. He has no connection to Ort.

[moonslav59]

DD likes his guys. He even traded for CJ Chatham. He has no connection to Ort.

 

He doesn’t like ONLY his guys,but if Song looks good, give him Duran.

[mvp 78]

He doesn’t like ONLY his guys,but if Song looks good, give him Duran.

 

If Song looks good, DD isn't letting him go most likely. Sox would do best if he remains intriguing, but the stuff is rough after being out for so long.

[moonslav59]

If Song looks good, DD isn't letting him go most likely. Sox would do best if he remains intriguing, but the stuff is rough after being out for so long.

 

I meant looked good in ST'ing for his predicament- not ML ready good.

[notin]

Like I said, Sox should scout him and send Brasier over there.

 

Not how that trade works. They would send the Sox someone, like maybe RHP Andy McFarlane or RHP Alex Baker…

[moonslav59]

If the Phillies give him back to the Sox, we don't have to keep him on our 26 man roster, but if we trade for him, do the same rules apply like other teams that may trade for him?

[notin]

If the Phillies give him back to the Sox, we don't have to keep him on our 26 man roster, but if we trade for him, do the same rules apply like other teams that may trade for him?

 

If he comes back to Boston, he would need to clear waivers first. (I looked this up.). Any claiming team accepts his Rule 5 status. If he goes unclaimed, he goes back to Boston.

 

His Rule 5 status follows him in any trades as well. Unless Philly works out a trade with Boston to keep him as their own. Then his Rule 5 status ends and he is property of Philadelphia…

[moonslav59]

If he comes back to Boston, he would need to clear waivers first. (I looked this up.). Any claiming team accepts his Rule 5 status. If he goes unclaimed, he goes back to Boston.

 

Good to know.

[moonslav59]

His Rule 5 status follows him in any trades as well. Unless Philly works out a trade with Boston to keep him as their own. Then his Rule 5 status ends and he is property of Philadelphia…

 

That seems strange.

[moonslav59]

McGuire & Wong:

Reese McGuire, Connor Wong praised in Red Sox camp

WWW.MLB.COM

---

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- While the recent Spring Training arrival of non-roster invite Jorge Alfaro added some drama to the Red Sox’s catching situation, manager Alex Cora on Wednesday endorsed the duo of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong. McGuire and Wong split duties over the final two months of the

 

 

Nick Pivetta with 3rd bout of COVID:

Nick Pivetta won't pitch in World Baseball Classic

WWW.MLB.COM

---

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Calling it a “really difficult decision," Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta has decided not to pitch for Team Canada in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Pivetta had COVID shortly before Spring Training, and he has been dealing with the aftereffects in the first week or so

 

Jim Rice speaks to team:

Jim Rice speaks to Red Sox during Spring Training

WWW.MLB.COM

---

This story was excerpted from Ian Browne’s Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

[moonslav59]

If it all comes down to who has the best rotation in the AL East, and using projections from STEAMERS, it looks like it depends on how you value rotations.

 

The Yanks should walk away with the division, if you look at the top 2 SP'er, only.

 

If you value the top 3-4 slots pretty equally, maybe NYY, TOR & TBR look best.

 

But, if you value SP'er depth to 5-7 slot, the Sox are the only team with over 5 SP'ers with a projected 1.0 or better WAR, and we have 7!

 

Steamer rankings:

 

NYY

3. Rodon 4.4

4. Cole 4.4

43. Severino 2.3

55. Cortes 2.2

139. German 1.0

 

TBR

8. McClanahan 4.0

19. Glasnow 3.4

49. Rasmussen 2.2

76. Springs 1.8

97. Eflin 1.4

 

TOR

16. Gausman 3.6

35. Manoah 2.6

53. Bassitt 2.2

65. Berrios 1.9

128. Kikuchi 1.1

 

BOS

30. Sale 2.9

64. Whitlock 2.0

77. Bello 1.8

85. Kluber 1.7

94. Pivetta 1.5

98. Paxton 1.4

142. Houck 1.0

 

BAL

74 Rodriguez 1.8

105. Gibson 1.3

106. Bradish 1.3

 

I'd be hypocritical, if I started saying SP'er depth is better than having quality pitchers at the top of your rotation. I've said over and over, I prefer building a rotation from the top not the 4/5 slots. I still believe that, but I will say, about our rotation, all 6 or 7 of them have some serious upside. Their rankings are low due to injury history, youth or lack of experience as a 150+ SP'er.

 

A guy like Sale would be top 5 or 10, if we knew he'd be 100% healthy, all year.

Kluber and Paxton would be ranked much higher, too, with known good health.

Whitlock, Bello and Houck just need to prove they can go 150+ IP (maybe just 130+) and maintain what they have show, thus far.

Pivetta probably has the least amount of upside, but the guy has had some seriously long stretches of pitching like a strong 2/3 slot pitcher, that one can easily imagine he might string together a full season like this:

 

3.51 ERA from AUG 11, 2020 to June 7, 2021 (14 GS/74 IP)

4.02 ERA full year (Aug 11, 2021 to Aug 13, 2022 (25 GS/134 IP)

4.17 ERA from opening day 2021 to Aug 13, 2021 (23/GS/74 IP)

3.62 ERA May 7, 2022 to Aug 21 (20 GS/122 IP)

4.13 ERA May 7th to end of 2022 (28 GS/159 IP)

 

Those are some decent stretches of good to very good pitching. He's never put 32 GS'd in a row, like any of these stretches. Maybe 2023 is "that year." We saw Big Dick do it!

 

[notin]

That seems strange.

 

What is strange?

[moonslav59]

What is strange?

 

That if any other team trades for him, he has to stay on the 26, but if Philly gives us something, he no longer does.

 

Just seems strange, but baseball has many strange rules.

[notin]

That if any other team trades for him, he has to stay on the 26, but if Philly gives us something, he no longer does.

 

Just seems strange, but baseball has many strange rules.

 

If Philly completes a trade with Boston for Song, he becomes their property just like any other player they trade for. But otherwise he’s on this status where he can’t be optioned to the minors, and that status follows him in trades for a full season..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bobby DEEEEEEEEE: two blasts to Right, double and 2-run tater. He's hitting 2,000!

[Tedballgame]

Ort is in mid-season form: 1 inning, 2 runs allowed. That's about right. Meanwhile, Song is with the Phillies and Ort is on the Red Sox 40 man roster.

[moonslav59]

If Philly completes a trade with Boston for Song, he becomes their property just like any other player they trade for. But otherwise he’s on this status where he can’t be optioned to the minors, and that status follows him in trades for a full season..

 

I understand it.

 

It just seems strange that if Philly trades him to the Pirates, he still needs to stay on the 26.

[Tedballgame]

I understand it.

 

It just seems strange that if Philly trades him to the Pirates, he still needs to stay on the 26.

 

Why does that seem strange? If teams could trade a Rule 5 without him having to stay on that team's 26 man roster a lot of teams would abuse the system.

[notin]

I understand it.

 

It just seems strange that if Philly trades him to the Pirates, he still needs to stay on the 26.

 

Right.

 

He’s a Rule 5 pick until he completes a year on the 26 or until someone buys (or trades) for him with Boston.

 

Song is like a leased car, and the Sox are his auto dealer. If Philly wants out of the lease in less than the one year (re: agreed upon lease length), they can exercise their “option to buy” him from Boston and work something out a deal. But until they do, the terms of the lease are in effect, no matter who’s driving.

[moonslav59]

Right.

 

He’s a Rule 5 pick until he completes a year on the 26 or until someone buys (or trades) for him with Boston.

 

Song is like a leased car, and the Sox are his auto dealer. If Philly wants out of the lease in less than the one year (re: agreed upon lease length), they can exercise their “option to buy” him from Boston and work something out a deal. But until they do, the terms of the lease are in effect, no matter who’s driving.

 

You keep explaining it to me, like I don't understand it. I get it. I just think it's strange.

 

I get how, had we protected him, we'd only have to keep him on our 40, so if a trade is made, that situations transfers to that other team, but it still seems strange to me that he needs to stay on their 26, unless they gives us something for him, so they can put him on just their 40.

[moonslav59]

If it all comes down to who has the best rotation in the AL East, and using projections from STEAMERS, it looks like it depends on how you value rotations.

 

The Yanks should walk away with the division, if you look at the top 2 SP'er, only.

 

If you value the top 3-4 slots pretty equally, maybe NYY, TOR & TBR look best.

 

But, if you value SP'er depth to 5-7 slot, the Sox are the only team with over 5 SP'ers with a projected 1.0 or better WAR, and we have 7!

 

Steamer rankings:

 

NYY

3. Rodon 4.4

4. Cole 4.4

43. Severino 2.3

55. Cortes 2.2

139. German 1.0

 

TBR

8. McClanahan 4.0

19. Glasnow 3.4

49. Rasmussen 2.2

76. Springs 1.8

97. Eflin 1.4

 

TOR

16. Gausman 3.6

35. Manoah 2.6

53. Bassitt 2.2

65. Berrios 1.9

128. Kikuchi 1.1

 

BOS

30. Sale 2.9

64. Whitlock 2.0

77. Bello 1.8

85. Kluber 1.7

94. Pivetta 1.5

98. Paxton 1.4

142. Houck 1.0

 

BAL

74 Rodriguez 1.8

105. Gibson 1.3

106. Bradish 1.3

 

I'd be hypocritical, if I started saying SP'er depth is better than having quality pitchers at the top of your rotation. I've said over and over, I prefer building a rotation from the top not the 4/5 slots. I still believe that, but I will say, about our rotation, all 6 or 7 of them have some serious upside. Their rankings are low due to injury history, youth or lack of experience as a 150+ SP'er.

 

A guy like Sale would be top 5 or 10, if we knew he'd be 100% healthy, all year.

Kluber and Paxton would be ranked much higher, too, with known good health.

Whitlock, Bello and Houck just need to prove they can go 150+ IP (maybe just 130+) and maintain what they have show, thus far.

Pivetta probably has the least amount of upside, but the guy has had some seriously long stretches of pitching like a strong 2/3 slot pitcher, that one can easily imagine he might string together a full season like this:

 

3.51 ERA from AUG 11, 2020 to June 7, 2021 (14 GS/74 IP)

4.02 ERA full year (Aug 11, 2021 to Aug 13, 2022 (25 GS/134 IP)

4.17 ERA from opening day 2021 to Aug 13, 2021 (23/GS/74 IP)

3.62 ERA May 7, 2022 to Aug 21 (20 GS/122 IP)

4.13 ERA May 7th to end of 2022 (28 GS/159 IP)

 

Those are some decent stretches of good to very good pitching. He's never put 32 GS'd in a row, like any of these stretches. Maybe 2023 is "that year." We saw Big Dick do it!

 

 

The more I think about our SP'ers, the more optimistic I get about 2023.

 

I'm pumped that Chris Sale is not only healthy, this time of year, but seems like he has the perfect attitude to create a magical 2023 season.

 

I'm not confident that Kluber can ever repeat some of is prime seasons, but it's not out of the question. It's certainly possible he improves on 2022, evan as he turns 37. He has a 4.15 ERA and 3.66 FIP since 2020, and that would be fine, too. Just give us 24+ starts.

 

Paxton is healthy, now, too, but he seems like a longer shot than Sale & Kluber. He's 34 and did have a nice stretch from 2017-2019: 81 GS with a 3.54 ERA and 3.26 FIP. There might still be some life left in that arm.

 

Pivetta seems like a lock on 30 GS'd. (See this post for his possibilities.)

 

Whitlock and Bello have very little history of pitching long seasons as SP'ers, but both have enormous talent. They also have 4 solid vets to learn from sitting right next to them.

 

I'm also very hopeful 1 or 2 from Mata, Crawford, Walter, Wink and Murphy show some plus value, this season. We may only need one to do so. Let's hope it's the first guy they pick.

[Larry Cook]

Ort is in mid-season form: 1 inning, 2 runs allowed. That's about right. Meanwhile, Song is with the Phillies and Ort is on the Red Sox 40 man roster.

 

A toothless 99 year old great grandmother has more bite in her than an ort breaking ball.

[moonslav59]

A toothless 99 year old great grandmother has more bite in her than an ort breaking ball.

 

LMAO!

 

Good one, but hey, that fastball!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Manny Machado isn't going anywhere...thanks to a new $350 million extension.

[notin]

Manny Machado isn't going anywhere...thanks to a new $350 million extension.

 

Make a move for Soto!!

[moonslav59]

$350M/11 on top of the Bogey deal.

 

WOW!

 

If they sign Soto, we'll get to see, up close and personal, if a team can sustain winning by having 3 studs paid like that on the same team, at the same time.

 

(Allusions to Betts, Bogey and Devers.)