A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

Padres are not shy with the dinero, just ask Xander.

 

They might have to choose between Machado and Soto. Their once-thriving farm system isn’t producing the minimum wage gap fillers anymore…

[Bobe2]

No doubt, but if they don't win a ring soon, where does it leave them.

 

It leaves them having to trim $50 or $60 million from the budget in a couple years, there are at least 3 teams with payrolls over $270. Million so far this year,

[Bobe2]

With Wil E Coyote and the Acme anvil.

 

But at least their GM will never get to say, "If we signed Bogaerts, we could'nt have added Carpenter and Wacha, and extended Yu!"

 

Amen

[moonslav59]

Wish we had signed Fulmer for $4.1M.

 

I guess Brasier is da man.

 

[mvp 78]

Wish we had signed Fulmer for $4.1M.

 

I guess Brasier is da man.

 

 

He is in the lower quintile in BB%. Sox are trying to get away from that type of pitcher. Maybe also don't like the profile of a guy that throws a slider 60% of the time?

[notin]

He is in the lower quintile in BB%. Sox are trying to get away from that type of pitcher. Maybe also don't like the profile of a guy that throws a slider 60% of the time?

 

But he’s had TJ surgery, and they do seem to like that …

[mvp 78]

But he’s had TJ surgery, and they do seem to like that …

 

They treat those guys like pokémon.

[notin]

They treat those guys like pokémon.

 

They treat those guys like starting pitchers.

 

If the Sox role out an opening day 5 man rotation of Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Whitlock and Pivetta, all of them have had TJ except Pivetta…

[notin]

With Wil E Coyote and the Acme anvil.

 

But at least their GM will never get to say, "If we signed Bogaerts, we could'nt have added Carpenter and Wacha, and extended Yu!"

 

Darvish is there Sale. You know, the guy they extended along with signing Bogaerts that made it impossible to afford their future Hall of Fame talent…

[Bellhorn04]

Darvish is there Sale. You know, the guy they extended along with signing Bogaerts that made it impossible to afford their future Hall of Fame talent…

 

You're just trying to sucker us into yet another DDDebate...

[Bobe2]

Darvish is there Sale. You know, the guy they extended along with signing Bogaerts that made it impossible to afford their future Hall of Fame talent…

 

 

What they need to do to avoid that is don’t start spending like a small market team or funneling their money into a soccer club or hire Bloom

[notin]

You're just trying to sucker us into yet another DDDebate...

 

There’s no debate on that part.

 

Im just hoping we can be the Dodgers and sign that Hall of Famers…

[Bellhorn04]

There’s no debate on that part.

 

Im just hoping we can be the Dodgers and sign that Hall of Famers…

 

Put it this way, you can blame DD for Sale and maybe for losing Bogaerts.

 

But Betts, the HOFer, that was strictly on ownership. They did not really go after him hard. They made a respectable offer, yes, but then they said screw you when they saw Mookie's counter-offer.

 

If DD was in control of the situation he would have gladly paid Mookie 375 million or whatever it took.

[moonslav59]

Put it this way, you can blame DD for Sale and maybe for losing Bogaerts.

 

But Betts, the HOFer, that was strictly on ownership. They did not really go after him hard. They made a respectable offer, yes, but then they said screw you when they saw Mookie's counter-offer.

 

If DD was in control of the situation he would have gladly paid Mookie 375 million or whatever it took.

 

Are you 100% sure DD did all he could to talk JH into going higher on Betts?

 

I'm not disagreeing with you, but we just don't know.

 

Maybe JH told DD he could choose between $350 for Betts or $150M on Sale + $200M on Bogey, but not both, and DD chose the latter.

[moonslav59]

Could this be the final records of 2023?

 

100-62 NYY

100-62 HOU

92-70 TOR WC1

90-72 CLE

86-76 SEA WC2

85-77 BOS WC3

 

84-78 TBR

81-81 MIN & BAL

 

78-84 CWS, TEX & LAA

 

62-100 DET & KCR

52-110 OAK

[Deja Doh]

Could this be the final records of 2023?

 

100-62 NYY

100-62 HOU

92-70 TOR WC1

90-72 CLE

86-76 SEA WC2

85-77 BOS WC3

 

84-78 TBR

81-81 MIN & BAL

 

78-84 CWS, TEX & LAA

 

62-100 DET & KCR

52-110 OAK

 

No chance for us. 72-90. We have like 3 players and and a bunch of not so much.

[harmony]

Could this be the final records of 2023?

 

100-62 NYY

100-62 HOU

92-70 TOR WC1

90-72 CLE

86-76 SEA WC2

85-77 BOS WC3

 

84-78 TBR

81-81 MIN & BAL

 

78-84 CWS, TEX & LAA

 

62-100 DET & KCR

52-110 OAK

The chances of the Red Sox winning at least 85 games are less than the chances of the Athletics winning at least 62 games.

 

IMHO

 

ZiPS projects the Red Sox to win only seven games more than the Athletics:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

 

More projections:

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

Edited February 16, 2023 by harmony

[moonslav59]

No chance for us. 72-90. We have like 3 players and and a bunch of not so much.

 

We won 78 games playing the toughest schedule in MLB, last year.

 

We got worse at 2 positions (SS and 2B) and maybe the rotation, but that is debatable.

 

We stayed about the same at 3B, C, DH and CF.

 

We improved at 1B, LF, RF and the pen.

 

Our team is deeper than we've seen since 2018.

The pen looks as good as any Sox team, on paper, in a long time.

We have 6-10 young players looking to make a mark.

 

Sure, we have enough question marks to make anyone's head spin and think negatively, but we don't need them all to go right to improve on 2022.

 

I'm surprised we've had our first Sox fan say "no chance," and it's still mid February.

Edited February 16, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The chances of the Red Sox winning at least 85 games are less than the chances of the Athletics winning at least 62 games.

 

IMHO

 

ZiPS projects the Red Sox to winning only seven games more than the Athletics:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

 

More projections:

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

Okay, give the A's 66 wins and call it a day.

[Bellhorn04]

Are you 100% sure DD did all he could to talk JH into going higher on Betts?

 

I'm not disagreeing with you, but we just don't know.

 

Maybe JH told DD he could choose between $350 for Betts or $150M on Sale + $200M on Bogey, but not both, and DD chose the latter.

 

I'll always believe that the offers to Betts were an ownership call.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'll always believe that the offers to Betts were an ownership call.

 

Dombrowski throws money at star players -- always has, always will. Some of them, he even pays for past performances.

 

Mookie wasn't even in his prime...

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski throws money at star players -- always has, always will. Some of them, he even pays for past performances.

 

Mookie wasn't even in his prime...

 

It's only logical that with a Mookie Betts, a guy on track to be one of the very best players in franchise history, it's up to the owners to decide how much is enough to keep him.

[sk7326]

I'll always believe that the offers to Betts were an ownership call.

 

Contracts at that level are always ownership's call. Yes the GM can be a company man - but ultimately owners are largely not giving unchecked spending authorities on amounts that high.

[moonslav59]

I'll always believe that the offers to Betts were an ownership call.

 

I tend to agree, but I do wonder how hard DD pushed for signing Betts vs Sale & Bogey. You know that had to be the choice being discussed.

 

Ultimately, the final call came down on Henry, but he may have been acting on the advice from DD and others.

 

Had there not been an opt out in Bogey's deal and Sale not been hurt every year, maybe the choice they made would have been the better one. Maybe, maybe, maybe...

 

I don't think it's a coincidence the money it would have taken to get Betts was very close to the same they ended up paying Sale + Bogey.

[mvp 78]

What they need to do to avoid that is don’t start spending like a small market team or funneling their money into a soccer club or hire Bloom

 

That's not a thing.

[mvp 78]

Are you 100% sure DD did all he could to talk JH into going higher on Betts?

 

I'm not disagreeing with you, but we just don't know.

 

Maybe JH told DD he could choose between $350 for Betts or $150M on Sale + $200M on Bogey, but not both, and DD chose the latter.

 

Henry dumped DD because they weren't aligned. Henry doesn't want to spend. DD does. Henry fired him.

[Old Red]

We won 78 games playing the toughest schedule in MLB, last year.

 

We got worse at 2 positions (SS and 2B) and maybe the rotation, but that is debatable.

 

We stayed about the same at 3B, C, DH and CF.

 

We improved at 1B, LF, RF and the pen.

 

Our team is deeper than we've seen since 2018.

The pen looks as good as any Sox team, on paper, in a long time.

We have 6-10 young players looking to make a mark.

 

Sure, we have enough question marks to make anyone's head spin and think negatively, but we don't need them all to go right to improve on 2022.

 

I'm surprised we've had our first Sox fan say "no chance," and it's still mid February.

 

Oh that tough schedule again! We won’t know if we got worse, or better at any position until the games are played, and being deeper does not necessarily translate to being better.

[sk7326]

That's not a thing.

 

As someone who roots for Liverpool (Salah!), FSG is accused of being cheapskates.

[moonslav59]

Oh that tough schedule again! We won’t know if we got worse, or better at any position until the games are played, and being deeper does not necessarily translate to being better.

 

Of course we "don't know," but we can speculate, and that is largely what this site is for.

 

When there are massive differences in strength of schedule, it's worthy of mentioning. Maybe I say it too often for your liking, but to me it's a major point, so I repeat it like many here do with their points.

 

I'm not sure why you don't tell Deja Doh that "We don't know...," so my guess is you agree more with his take than mine- which is fine.

 

I've tried to point out that my takes on what slots got better or worse are "only on paper," and yes, we could get worse at several positions I called even or improved, especially if an injury occurs.

 

I think it's easy to think, "we lost Bogey, JD and Nate plus some players that did well in '22 for us, like Wacha, Hill and Strahm, but I think, and this is just my opinion, guys like JD, Nate and Bogey are maybe thought of in their 2018 forms- not their 2022 form and even some other off or less than expected seasons.

 

Nate was great for 2 months at the end of 2018. he sucked in 2019 and did well in the short 2020 season and very well in 2021. @022 was good, but he missed more than a third of the season. Which Nate did we lose?

 

JD has been a great signing by us- no doubt. He turns 36, this year and had a bad 2020 short season and saw his OPS+ drop from 173 in 2018 to 139in '19, 128 in '21 and 117 in '23 (.790.) Which JD did we lose?

 

Bogey was a fantastic player for us. As you know, I have questioned his defense at a very important position, but he has always been a clear major plus player, every year. That being said, his OPS+ dropped from 2019, but stayed level at a very nice level: 135 ('18)> 139 ('19)> 128 ('20)> 129 ('21)> [131 ('22.) I'm not one to use RBIs to make points, but it was concerning to see his RBI totals drop, so much. 220 ('18-'19) to 152 ('21-'22.) Which Bogey did we lose?

 

Also, Vaz has been a yo-yo at the plate over his time, here. One good hitting year- then bad, then good... I've questioned his handling of the staff many times, but it certainly remains to be seen, if McGuire and Wong can do better.

 

Two of our biggest weaknesses were addressed: OF offense and the pen. Both could end up being better than average- maybe not. 1B was our worst position, in terms of O and D. It might be a big plus on both sides, but maybe not.

 

The games will show, if Bloom's remake worked, or not. I like our chances- others don't. I can understand their position and they have a lot of facts and evidence on their side, too.

[moonslav59]

Henry dumped DD because they weren't aligned. Henry doesn't want to spend. DD does. Henry fired him.

 

I've always felt this way, too.

 

My point was about choosing Sale and Bogey over Betts, back when DD was still allowed to spend. What came afterwards was a whole new ball game. I do not think DD was aware a huge budget cut was coming after 2019, until the 2019 deadline. (Pure speculation by me on the timeline. He probably saw the writing on the wall before that, when Betts was not extended.)