2023 Prospects

[moonslav59]

But there's no reason to bump him up that much over the offseason. What new info is there on him? Until additional games are played, I don't see him making a huge jump.

 

My bad. I thought they jumped him up to #10 on their July 6th rankings list, but they did not. He played 25 or so more games, afterwards, and I was thinking he could have jumped more due to those games.

 

You are right. He won't jump more than 1-2 slots.

[mvp 78]

My bad. I thought they jumped him up to #10 on their July 6th rankings list, but they did not. He played 25 or so more games, afterwards, and I was thinking he could have jumped more due to those games.

 

You are right. He won't jump more than 1-2 slots.

 

And I'm not trying to slight him by any means. He's a very interesting prospect and could move up quickly once he reaches stateside. He is a little on the shorter side, but he's a great all around player. He's probably the guy that pushed Raffy off of 3B and fans may not be upset by it. It is still early though. A lot can change as he just turned 18 last month.

[notin]

This is my point about Anthony or Mayer, or even Teel, if he somehow gets a call-up by midseason.

 

All three are hyped by both the Red Sox and fans like us as future big league stars... not just prospects who'll make the majors.

 

None of Boston's players on the parent club at catcher, shortstop or in the outfield are All-Stars. But all have flaws, and deficient tools of some sort...

 

Last winter, when Bloom told Red Sox Nation, "You know what's coming!" he didn't mean more mediocrity. Then again, maybe he was so far off, they decided to can him...

 

Except for Trevor Story, who has been an All Star.

 

Twice…

[moonslav59]

 

Last winter, when Bloom told Red Sox Nation, "You know what's coming!" he didn't mean more mediocrity. Then again, maybe he was so far off, they decided to can him...

 

By drafting mostly HS players he pushed the rebuild plan from 2-4 years to 4-6 years and lost his job.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Except for Trevor Story, who has been an All Star.

 

Twice…

 

I agree -- with the juxtaposition of "has" and "been"... Story was once a star, in the National League in a city that isn't Boston. He's not even close now. His OPS in 43 games this year was .566... the two worst qualifying batters in baseball were Tim Anderson at .582 and Javier Baez at .593. They're not stars anymore, either.

 

Story's flaw is pointing the barrel of his bat at the ground behind his back, from where he can't whip it into position through the strike zone in time to make consistent contact with big league pitching.

 

His deficient tool is a bum elbow, which has kept him from full-time status in each of his two Red Sox seasons, and maybe even contributes to his flaw.

[moonslav59]

I agree -- with the juxtaposition of "has" and "been"... Story was once a star, in the National League in a city that isn't Boston. He's not even close now. His OPS in 43 games this year was .566... the two worst qualifying batters in baseball were Tim Anderson at .582 and Javier Baez at .593. They're not stars anymore, either.

 

Story's flaw is pointing the barrel of his bat at the ground behind his back, from where he can't whip it into position through the strike zone in time to make consistent contact with big league pitching.

 

His deficient tool is a bum elbow, which has kept him from full-time status in each of his two Red Sox seasons, and maybe even contributes to his flaw.

 

Have you totally given up on any chance with Story?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Have you totally given up on any chance with Story?

 

Of course not. While not "phenomenal" like NESN constantly insisted on air the last two months, he's a good big league infielder who can run.

 

We'll see how the new regime views Story's future. Right now, unfortunately, he represents the second-biggest failure of the Bloom Era: the replacement for a longtime fan favorite who loved Boston, who was recruited prematurely and paid what Bogaerts most likely would've signed for (who was instead insulted with a lowball, one-year offer).

 

Some posters who dig budget threads can gloat over the bloat of Xander's SD contract. Most of us sense the Sox would've been a lot closer to the playoffs with the shortstop all year who led the NL in OPS+... Meanwhile, Story's struggles to stay on the field and produce in the batter's box only leave a bitter taste in the mouths of Red Sox fans --

 

-- desperate for reform from the radical change in their team's direction the past four years.

[moonslav59]

Of course not. While not "phenomenal" like NESN constantly insisted on air the last two months, he's a good big league infielder who can run.

 

We'll see how the new regime views Story's future. Right now, unfortunately, he represents the second-biggest failure of the Bloom Era: the replacement for a longtime fan favorite who loved Boston, who was recruited prematurely and paid what Bogaerts most likely would've signed for (who was instead insulted with a lowball, one-year offer).

 

Some posters who dig budget threads can gloat over the bloat of Xander's SD contract. Most of us sense the Sox would've been a lot closer to the playoffs with the shortstop all year who led the NL in OPS+... Meanwhile, Story's struggles to stay on the field and produce in the batter's box only leave a bitter taste in the mouths of Red Sox fans --

 

-- desperate for reform from the radical change in their team's direction the past four years.

 

1. We have no idea what Bogey would have signed for 1, 2, 3 or more years ago.

 

I disagree. I think Story is a phenomenal defender at SS and 2B.

 

He was Bloom's biggest FA signing, and has fallen way short of expectations, for sure. The injury was known, and that is on Bloom

[mvp 78]

By drafting mostly HS players he pushed the rebuild plan from 2-4 years to 4-6 years and lost his job.

 

The combination of starting off with a relatively barren farm, drafting HS guys and being generally inept at acquiring MLB talent each offseason was the stew that led to his downfall.

[mvp 78]

1. We have no idea what Bogey would have signed for 1, 2, 3 or more years ago.

 

I disagree. I think Story is a phenomenal defender at SS and 2B.

 

He was Bloom's biggest FA signing, and has fallen way short of expectations, for sure. The injury was known, and that is on Bloom

 

Story has a chance to really turn fan perception around quickly, but it's far from a guarantee.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1. We have no idea what Bogey would have signed for 1, 2, 3 or more years ago.

 

I disagree. I think Story is a phenomenal defender at SS and 2B.

 

He was Bloom's biggest FA signing, and has fallen way short of expectations, for sure. The injury was known, and that is on Bloom

 

I'm not going to re-read old threads, but let's not pretend posters didn't question the Story signing nor surmise Bogey would've stayed for a similar deal... at the time.

 

With all the big-name middle infielders hitting free agency at once, Xander and his agents knew he had equivalent numbers and deserved a market-correction salary if he opted out. But he certainly talked like he was open to extend if the Boston brass just gave him a little respect.

 

To their ignominy, it was the opposite.

[moonslav59]

Story has a chance to really turn fan perception around quickly, but it's far from a guarantee.

 

He is one of our hardest returning players to predict performance in 2024.

 

He's barely player for us, and had a couple min hot streaks mixed in with really horrific small sample size stretches. In now way do I see those sample sizes as something we should expect over a 500+ PA season, assuming he gives us one, but it does seem possible he could lay an egg on O.

 

I've said this a number of times, but most players have a few hot streaks that pad their stats to the points of acceptability to greatness, ot they don't last long- even the great fielders. Story is no exception, and he the last two seasons of limited action have seen some wildly bad streaks:

 

2022:

.561 in first 127 PAs

1.154 middle 81 PAs

.687 last 188 PAs, which included a .569 stretch of 86 PAs

 

2023 saw only 168 PAs, so the breakdowns will be super small sample sizes:

.348 first 12 PAs

1.667 next 12 PAs (.751 in these 12 + the next 39 PAs)

.257 in his next 40 PAs

.679 in his last 69 PAs, including .812 in his last 31 PAs

 

I know big K guys bother many people. They do me, as well, when they aren't walking or hitting HRs. Story needs to do more walking and homering.

 

[moonslav59]

I'm not going to re-read old threads, but let's not pretend posters didn't question the Story signing nor surmise Bogey would've stayed for a similar deal... at the time.

 

With all the big-name middle infielders hitting free agency at once, Xander and his agents knew he had equivalent numbers and deserved a market-correction salary if he opted out. But he certainly talked like he was open to extend if the Boston brass just gave him a little respect.

 

To their ignominy, it was the opposite.

 

No doubt, it was a hot debate for years. Many assumed Bogey would have signed for a reasonable deal a year or two before reaching free agency or even earlier in 2022.

 

I do think he'd have signed for less than the Padres gave him, but I'm not so sure the $160M/6 deal many seemed to think he'd have taken would actually have been taken, except maybe way back when he signed the extension under DD, with the opt out.

 

I think the Sox felt Story was similar in value as Boey- better D but worse on O. They felt $140M was better that whatever Bogey would have taken. I'm not sure I buy all the shock and awe Bloom put forth, when Bogey signed with SD. I think he knew they were too far apart, all along in the process, and that is why he jumped at Story in March '22.

 

I was not against bringing Bogey back, at what I felt was market value, but clearly we all miscalculated what that 2023 value was. Maybe Bogey knew all along he'd get way more than what Boston was floating.

 

I will say, departing players almost always say the same things. It's hard to know everything that went down and the true feelings Bogey had. If he thought he was worth $240M/8 or even $200M/7, and we never got close to those offers, I don't bame him for bolting. While $200M/7 looks pretty good, right now, back then, it seemed like a lot, and I can understand not offering that, especially with Story in the system, already.

 

I guess the best time would have been before we signed Story, or way back when DD extended him. We should have paid him more and not had an opt-out.

[Hugh2]

No doubt, it was a hot debate for years. Many assumed Bogey would have signed for a reasonable deal a year or two before reaching free agency or even earlier in 2022.

 

I do think he'd have signed for less than the Padres gave him, but I'm not so sure the $160M/6 deal many seemed to think he'd have taken would actually have been taken, except maybe way back when he signed the extension under DD, with the opt out.

 

I think the Sox felt Story was similar in value as Boey- better D but worse on O. They felt $140M was better that whatever Bogey would have taken. I'm not sure I buy all the shock and awe Bloom put forth, when Bogey signed with SD. I think he knew they were too far apart, all along in the process, and that is why he jumped at Story in March '22.

 

I was not against bringing Bogey back, at what I felt was market value, but clearly we all miscalculated what that 2023 value was. Maybe Bogey knew all along he'd get way more than what Boston was floating.

 

I will say, departing players almost always say the same things. It's hard to know everything that went down and the true feelings Bogey had. If he thought he was worth $240M/8 or even $200M/7, and we never got close to those offers, I don't bame him for bolting. While $200M/7 looks pretty good, right now, back then, it seemed like a lot, and I can understand not offering that, especially with Story in the system, already.

 

I guess the best time would have been before we signed Story, or way back when DD extended him. We should have paid him more and not had an opt-out.

 

Worse on O?

 

I never bought that story, ehhh? never bought that Story!!! hahaha

 

Ok, at the time of the Trevor Signing here is his career slash line vs. Xanders.

 

TS .276/.341/.537 OPS .878

XB .293/.354/.460 OPS .814

 

Now everyone at the time cried "it's all coors field"

 

Ok, lets look at their career AWAY splits at the time.

 

TS .751 OPS

XB .755 OPS

 

Xander had a little bit more OBP and Story more SLG, when you took away Coors field they were almost IDENTICAL in OPS. With the plus glove, you could have made the argument that at THAT point in time Trevor Story was the better player.

[mvp 78]

There's only one way he pads his stats:

 

2023: Home vs LHP 944 OPS

2022: Home vs LHP 1073 OPS

2021: Home vs LHP 1079 OPS

2020: Home vs LHP 1240 OPS

2019: Home vs LHP 921 OPS

2018: Home vs LHP 1312 OPS

2017: Home vs LHP 1125 OPS

2016: Home vs LHP 1101 OPS

Career: Home vs LHP 1113 OPS (886 vs RHP, 830 Away vs LHP, 684 Away vs RHP)

[mvp 78]

Since his injury in 2021, Story's offensive value has tanked.

 

Story: Career 107 wRC+, 114 prior to 2021 season

Xander: Career 118 wRC+, 113 prior to 2021 season

 

Before 2021, Story was a better hitter and a better defender. Story then got injured and Xander fixed his defensive issues. Sox chose poorly.

[moonslav59]

Worse on O?

 

I never bought that story, ehhh? never bought that Story!!! hahaha

 

Ok, at the time of the Trevor Signing here is his career slash line vs. Xanders.

 

TS .276/.341/.537 OPS .878

XB .293/.354/.460 OPS .814

 

Now everyone at the time cried "it's all coors field"

 

Ok, lets look at their career AWAY splits at the time.

 

TS .751 OPS

XB .755 OPS

 

Xander had a little bit more OBP and Story more SLG, when you took away Coors field they were almost IDENTICAL in OPS. With the plus glove, you could have made the argument that at THAT point in time Trevor Story was the better player.

 

Just use park adjusted numbers:

 

OPS+

 

112 Story w COL

117 Bogey w BOS

 

Bogey was better on O. I stick to my position. Not by a whole lot, but better.

 

[Hugh2]

so the career AWAY OPS for Bogaerts vs. Story being equal amounts to Story just being a better RHB vs. LHP.

 

WHich....kind of fits the roster much better right now. If healthy, Story would have been the better deal at SS. He could make a lot of people look bad if he could ever stay healthy.

[Hugh2]

Just use park adjusted numbers:

 

OPS+

 

112 Story w COL

117 Bogey w BOS

 

Bogey was better on O. I stick to my position. Not by a whole lot, but better.

 

 

By 5 basis points? for all intents and purposes that's equal.

[moonslav59]

Since his injury in 2021, Story's offensive value has tanked.

 

Story: Career 107 wRC+, 114 prior to 2021 season

Xander: Career 118 wRC+, 113 prior to 2021 season

 

Before 2021, Story was a better hitter and a better defender. Story then got injured and Xander fixed his defensive issues. Sox chose poorly.

 

OPS+/wRC+ Before FA signings...

 

Bogey

2018: 135/133

2019: 139/141

2020: 128/129

2021: 129/129

2022: 131/133

 

Story:

'17: 84/82 (Throw out, if you wish.)

'18: 127/128

'19: 120/122

'20: 120/117

'21: 102/98

 

[moonslav59]

By 5 basis points? for all intents and purposes that's equal.

 

Look at their last 4-5 years before signing. See my last post. It's more than 5 base points in OPS+ and wRC+.

 

OPS+ for 4 seasons before singing:

 

117 Story

133 Bogey

 

I'm being kind to Story by dropping the 5th year back: Bogey 135 to 84.

Last 5 years:

110 Story

133 Bogey

Edited October 31, 2023 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

OPS is one metric. Bogaerts makes better contact, period -- a .291 career batting average for a shortstop is excellent. Story hasn't even approached his career .265 average in Boston.

 

Xander's career K-rate of 18.1% is also superior to Trevor's 28.2%.

[Bellhorn04]

Since his injury in 2021, Story's offensive value has tanked.

 

I notice the "T word" is really getting a lot of play lately.

[Dipre]

OPS is one metric. Bogaerts makes better contact, period -- a .291 career batting average for a shortstop is excellent. Story hasn't even approached his career .265 average in Boston.

 

Xander's career K-rate of 18.1% is also superior to Trevor's 28.2%.

 

Batting average has absolutely nothing to do with quality of contact.

[Bellhorn04]

so the career AWAY OPS for Bogaerts vs. Story being equal amounts to Story just being a better RHB vs. LHP.

 

WHich....kind of fits the roster much better right now. If healthy, Story would have been the better deal at SS. He could make a lot of people look bad if he could ever stay healthy.

 

I think it's 2 concerns now:

 

1) Can he stay healthy?

2) Can he still catch up to high heat?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Batting average has absolutely nothing to do with quality of contact.

 

No one said anything about quality. Bogaerts makes better contact -- as in more contact is better -- because he strikes out 10% less than Story... over their entire careers.

[mvp 78]

OPS+/wRC+ Before FA signings...

 

Bogey

2018: 135/133

2019: 139/141

2020: 128/129

2021: 129/129

2022: 131/133

 

Story:

'17: 84/82 (Throw out, if you wish.)

'18: 127/128

'19: 120/122

'20: 120/117

'21: 102/98

 

 

Why include Bogey's '22? The time periods aren't the same.

 

Bogey '17 was 95 wRC+. Throw out if you wish?

[mvp 78]

OPS is one metric. Bogaerts makes better contact, period -- a .291 career batting average for a shortstop is excellent. Story hasn't even approached his career .265 average in Boston.

 

Xander's career K-rate of 18.1% is also superior to Trevor's 28.2%.

 

Sweet Spot %:

 

Xander 30.5

Story 37.8

 

Barrel %:

 

Xander 6.2

Story 10.8

[mvp 78]

Story also has a higher WOBA and Hard Hit %.

 

Xander's a more patient hitter, but he's also more likely to watch a pitch go right down the middle of the plate.

 

Meatball Swing %

 

Xander 67.4

Story 77.9

[mvp 78]

I notice the "T word" is really getting a lot of play lately.

 

I'll drop it!