2023 Prospects

[sk7326]

Wikelman had the highest strikeout rate for starting pitchers in the minors -- and his ceiling is only mid-rotation?

 

What does a guy have to do for Soxprospects.com to rate a top-of-the-ro ceiling, lead the minors in no-hitters rate?

 

Throw strikes

[sk7326]

2. Weird about Roman since Mayer was awful in AA and Roman was good in a SSS.

4. No, Rafaela will never fix his plate discipline. He will always swing at everything he can reach.

6. If they trade Verdugo, Abreu will be featured heavily for the '23 Sox IMO. I think he's fine as the 4th OFer since he can play all 4 positions.

7. No.

8. My guess is that '23 looks similar to '22 and that his bat is not transcendent. At least his glove is adequate now. I'd trade him.

9. He has a better chance to start than #7.

10. We won't know until '25 most likely. He'll most likely tear up the FCL. He won't see advanced pitching until Salem.

 

Mayer played through a shoulder injury and was one of the youngest regulars in the league (Anthony of course was even younger) ... if he is awful after an offseason of rest/rehab I would get the skepticism. And there is likely positional value things too.

 

Agreed on Rafaela - though that doesn't preclude being a solid big leaguer. There is enough power and defense that he just has to improve a little in the discipline area.

[sk7326]

Pretty close to soxprospects.com

 

I think the top 3 have a pretty big gap between them and the next set of 2-3 prospects.

 

Yes. Cespedes is a wild card though just because he smoked a level as a 17-year old. The range of outcomes is wide - but the age-performance combination is what you want.

[moonslav59]

2. Weird about Roman since Mayer was awful in AA and Roman was good in a SSS.

4. No, Rafaela will never fix his plate discipline. He will always swing at everything he can reach.

6. If they trade Verdugo, Abreu will be featured heavily for the '23 Sox IMO. I think he's fine as the 4th OFer since he can play all 4 positions.

7. No.

8. My guess is that '23 looks similar to '22 and that his bat is not transcendent. At least his glove is adequate now. I'd trade him.

9. He has a better chance to start than #7.

10. We won't know until '25 most likely. He'll most likely tear up the FCL. He won't see advanced pitching until Salem.

 

I think Rafaela will be an okay MLB hitter (.700-.725 through prime years.) I would guess the odds are he does worse than this over better.

[Bellhorn04]

Speier's Top 10 Sox Prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/01/sports/red-sox-top-prospects/

 

1. Marcelo Mayer

2. Roman Anthony - key question: Why Mayer over Anthony as the top prospect (short answer, longer track record of performance against older peers)

3. Kyle Teel - key question: Can Teel swim in the deep end? (already in AA, being aggressively moved for his position)

4. Ceddane Rafaela - key: Can his swing decisions improve?

5. Miguel Bleis - key: How will he come back from shoulder surgery?

6. Wilyer Abreu - key: Will he open the year in the Boston lineup? (he is probably the most likely of the prospects for 2024 impact)

7. Wikelman Gonzalez - key Can he throw enough strikes to start?

8. Nick Yorke - key: Which path will he take? (2021, 2022, 2023 gave three very different answers)

9. Luis Perales - key: Can he throw enough strikes to start?

10. Yoellin Cespedes - key: Will he keep dominating against more advanced pitching? (crazy exit velos for his age, but it's still low level)

 

Nice recap.

[moonslav59]

Yes. Cespedes is a wild card though just because he smoked a level as a 17-year old. The range of outcomes is wide - but the age-performance combination is what you want.

 

I just have a sneaky feeling Cespedes is going to be very special.

[moonslav59]

Throw strikes

 

Throw over 95 mph as a starter?

[Larry Cook]

Which of our top prospects should we be willing to part with as trade bait????

[moonslav59]

Which of our top prospects should we be willing to part with as trade bait????

 

We'll have to give to get.

 

Of course, I'd prefer a larger package of mid tier prospects than one of our top 4, but that's a pipedream, if we want an ace or possible one.

 

To me, the trade order is this, and it's not about who I think is the 4th best, 3rd best... It's about current trade value to other teams, our current needs and my perception of these guys' ceilings:

 

1. Mayer

2. Bleis, but I'm not sure his trade value is worth his very high ceiling.

T3. Teel, since great catching prospects are hard to come by.

T3. Anthony, because this guy seems to be most likely to be a stud, to me, and I think other GMs would prefer Mayer or Teel.

 

Rafaela is probably #5, but the gap is big between 4 & 5.

 

Yorke, Perales, Wikelman, Abreu and Cespedes will not get us an ace. I'm not sure two or three would.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

I would not trade Anthony or Teel. I'd probably hold onto Cespedes as well just because his trade value is much lower than what his value could be next September. Everyone else could be available in the right trade.

[moonslav59]

I would not trade Anthony or Teel. I'd probably hold onto Cespedes as well just because his trade value is much lower than what his value could be next September. Everyone else could be available in the right trade.

 

I totally agree.

 

I do worry more about trading Bleis than Mayer, because I doubt Bleis brings us a very good pitcher, even if coupled with two tier two prospects.

 

I think Mayer has high trade value and is the logical one to trade. We also have a SS for the next 3-4 years.

[sk7326]

Which of our top prospects should we be willing to part with as trade bait????

 

Mayer maybe is #1. That said, I think his trade value is likely slightly diminished until he shows his shoulder is healthy. And - again, Anthony's performance last year kind of skews how we look at Mayer. Boston could very well decide that Mayer is among the level of prospects that orgs like Boston keep for themselves. And that would make sense to me.

 

Honestly, this question is where the org-wide lack of pitching REALLY hurts. If we had more high level organizational pitching prospects, they become good candidates as high level trade bait.

[Larry Cook]

Mayer maybe is #1. That said, I think his trade value is likely slightly diminished until he shows his shoulder is healthy. And - again, Anthony's performance last year kind of skews how we look at Mayer. Boston could very well decide that Mayer is among the level of prospects that orgs like Boston keep for themselves. And that would make sense to me.

 

Honestly, this question is where the org-wide lack of pitching REALLY hurts. If we had more high level organizational pitching prospects, they become good candidates as high level trade bait.

 

Good news bres-slow got us 4 pitchers today.

 

Bad news - none of them have electric stuff

[moonslav59]

Good news bres-slow got us 4 pitchers today.

 

Bad news - none of them have electric stuff

 

We got 4 pitchers.

 

We lost 6 pitchers: Drohan, Fernandez, Ryan Ammons (traded for Slaten), and minor league Rule 5'ers: Jose Ramirez, Railin Perez, Brock Bell

[moonslav59]

Mayer maybe is #1. That said, I think his trade value is likely slightly diminished until he shows his shoulder is healthy. And - again, Anthony's performance last year kind of skews how we look at Mayer. Boston could very well decide that Mayer is among the level of prospects that orgs like Boston keep for themselves. And that would make sense to me.

 

Honestly, this question is where the org-wide lack of pitching REALLY hurts. If we had more high level organizational pitching prospects, they become good candidates as high level trade bait.

 

I think we would keep our high level pitchers, but who knows.

 

I think most MLB teams are looking at MLB ready prospects, or those close enough to be worth taking. For all we know, Teel could be in the bigs before Mayer. Teel's value is not as high as Mayer's according to BTV. His sample size is small.

 

Mayer might have to struggle to allow Anthony to make the bigs before him. soxprospects.com has these ETAs:

Teel- early '25

Mayer- '25

Anthony- mid '25

 

The next tier might take 2-4 to come close to matching what we could get for a top 3.

 

Rafaela- '24

Bleis- late '26

Yorke- late '24

Perales- '26

Abreu- '24

Wikelman- mid '25

Cespedes mid '27

Zanetello- late '27

 

BTV:

44.5 Mayer

41.8 Anthony

34.0 Duran (not a prospect, but I couldn't resist.)

21.5 Bleis

17.8 Teel

13.3 Yorke

8.1 EValdez

7.8 Abreu

7.1 Cespedes

5.7 Wikelman

4.4 Walter

4.2 Zanetello & Romero

3.5 Perales

Edited December 7, 2023 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think we would keep our high level pitchers, but who knows.

 

I think most MLB teams are looking at MLB ready prospects, or those close enough to be worth taking. For all we know, Teel could be in the bigs before Mayer. Teel's value is not as high as Mayer's according to BTV. His sample size is small.

 

Mayer might have to struggle to allow Anthony to make the bigs before him. soxprospects.com has these ETAs:

Teel- early '25

Mayer- '25

Anthony- mid '25

 

The next tier might take 2-4 to come close to matching what we could get for a top 3.

 

Rafaela- '24

Bleis- late '26

Yorke- late '24

Perales- '26

Abreu- '24

Wikelman- mid '25

Cespedes mid '27

Zanetello- late '27

 

BTV:

44.5 Mayer

41.8 Anthony

34.0 Duran (not a prospect, but I couldn't resist.)

21.5 Bleis

17.8 Teel

13.3 Yorke

8.1 EValdez

7.8 Abreu

7.1 Cespedes

5.7 Wikelman

4.4 Walter

4.2 Zanetello & Romero

3.5 Perales

 

A few notions we should prepare for: if Breslow isn't going to overpay for a free agent pitcher, then at least one of the red names will be traded soon; also, if the org decides instead to go with the org, the ETA for others may be accelerated (to even 2024)... especially, mound prospects, who the new pitching regime may want to work with more in-person; finally, look for some of the names at the bottom of the list to double or triple their value next season -- who do you like?

[moonslav59]

A few notions we should prepare for: if Breslow isn't going to overpay for a free agent pitcher, then at least one of the red names will be traded soon; also, if the org decides instead to go with the org, the ETA for others may be accelerated (to even 2024)... especially, mound prospects, who the new pitching regime may want to work with more in-person; finally, look for some of the names at the bottom of the list to double or triple their value next season -- who do you like?

 

I don't see any Sox pitching prospects making a significant showing on the big club in 2024.

 

As much as our staff has two big holes at the TOTR, we have some very decent 3-16 or even 18 pitchers after those two slots are filled.

 

If they are not filled, I still see 16-18 experienced pitchers who will get a look-see before we jump Wikelman, Perales, Dobbins or Hoppe a shot.

 

Maybe Gambrel or Guerrero get a shot.

 

Mata is out of options. If not traded, he will get a look, at least through ST'ing.

[mvp 78]

I don't see any Sox pitching prospects making a significant showing on the big club in 2024.

 

As much as our staff has two big holes at the TOTR, we have some very decent 3-16 or even 18 pitchers after those two slots are filled.

 

If they are not filled, I still see 16-18 experienced pitchers who will get a look-see before we jump Wikelman, Perales, Dobbins or Hoppe a shot.

 

Maybe Gambrel or Guerrero get a shot.

 

Mata is out of options. If not traded, he will get a look, at least through ST'ing.

 

The AAA staff should be much more able to contribute this year than in previous years as some of the younger arms have advanced. I don't think the higher octane arms are quite ready as you already mentioned. No reason to rush those guys.

 

I think there should be a good competition between Mata and Slaten for the final relief spot this Spring Training. We'll see how it shakes out. I'd be surprised if they went with both.

[moonslav59]

The AAA staff should be much more able to contribute this year than in previous years as some of the younger arms have advanced. I don't think the higher octane arms are quite ready as you already mentioned. No reason to rush those guys.

 

I think there should be a good competition between Mata and Slaten for the final relief spot this Spring Training. We'll see how it shakes out. I'd be surprised if they went with both.

 

A lot depends on injuries, and how many pitchers we add before opening day.

 

I suppose we could start the year with Schreiber abd Bernardino in AAA, if both Mata and Slaten look good, but I agree: I doubt both make the 26.

[moonslav59]

MLB Pipeline, supposedly paced Fitts at #10 in the Sox rankings, but who knows?

 

I wonder where Slater fits in.

 

I might put Fitts in Drohan's #15 slot.

 

Maybe Slater slots at #20, ahead of DHam, or somewhere mixed in with all the pitching prospects listed between 23 and 39. Maybe he takes Fernandez's #31 slot.

[mvp 78]

MLB Pipeline, supposedly paced Fitts at #10 in the Sox rankings, but who knows?

 

I wonder where Slater fits in.

 

I might put Fitts in Drohan's #15 slot.

 

Maybe Slater slots at #20, ahead of DHam, or somewhere mixed in with all the pitching prospects listed between 23 and 39. Maybe he takes Fernandez's #31 slot.

 

SlateN. SoxProspects don't like putting relievers higher than 20.

 

Maybe they put Fitts 11th? Somewhere 11-15 IMO.

[moonslav59]

SlateN. SoxProspects don't like putting relievers higher than 20.

 

Maybe they put Fitts 11th? Somewhere 11-15 IMO.

 

It would be easy for them to just put Fitts in Drohan's slot at #15 and Slaten in the 31 slot, formerly held by R Fernandez.

 

It seems about right, as well.

[mvp 78]

It would be easy for them to just put Fitts in Drohan's slot at #15 and Slaten in the 31 slot, formerly held by R Fernandez.

 

It seems about right, as well.

 

I think Slaten is better than Fernandez (doesn't have the health concerns). Fitts at 15 is fine?

[moonslav59]

I think Slaten is better than Fernandez (doesn't have the health concerns).

 

Anywhere from 20-39 looks okay to me. They all are pretty interchangeable in that group.

[mvp 78]

Anywhere from 20-39 looks okay to me. They all are pretty interchangeable in that group.

 

I think there is a dropoff after Mata at 27.

[moonslav59]

I think there is a dropoff after Mata at 27.

 

I like some after 27 more than DHam at 21, but I can see your point.

[mvp 78]

I like some after 27 more than DHam at 21, but I can see your point.

 

I agree with you. I'd put Hamilton after Alcantara for now.

[Bellhorn04]

You guys are in deep.

[moonslav59]

You guys are in deep.

 

We could both be wrong. DHam could end up the best prospect below #20.

[Bellhorn04]

We could both be wrong. DHam could end up the best prospect below #20.

 

I just mean you're in deep in general, with the prospect and roster stuff.