2023 Prospects

[mvp 78]

Also, Chaim isn't drafting players. The people who run the draft are still here, I'd suspect in 2024 the Sox take anywhere from 6-8 short stops again.

 

Chaim probably had a say in the top few rounds and the overall direction of the draft. The CBO is the one setting the tone. The scouts and others are grading the players.

[moonslav59]

It's true that pitching is very risky.

 

Think of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. Leiter isn't a top 100 prospect now. Kumar Rocker got TJS.

 

I'm happy we draft SSs not pitchers.

 

I just wish we'd trade some for pitchers we know more about, later on.

[moonslav59]

Chaim probably had a say in the top few rounds and the overall direction of the draft. The CBO is the one setting the tone. The scouts and others are grading the players.

 

I'm sure they come to a consensus on the overall philosophy on drafting and positional risks vs rewards factors is part of the conversation.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm happy we draft SSs not pitchers.

 

I just wish we'd trade some for pitchers we know more about, later on.

 

Yeah, I guess it's smart to draft piles of SS's.

 

But can we really say the Sox have been great drafters over the long run? And obviously, our inability to draft and develop pitchers is like a hallmark of the franchise.

[Hugh2]

Chaim probably had a say in the top few rounds and the overall direction of the draft. The CBO is the one setting the tone. The scouts and others are grading the players.

 

Exactly, which means the vast majority of short stops getting drafted are guys he probably never even heard of.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Exactly, which means the vast majority of short stops getting drafted are guys he probably never even heard of.

 

This may be wrong, because maybe Bloom actually invested more time on the farm than in the big city.

 

We don't know how much time and resources he devoted to scouting and developing prospects... but we do know that overall, Bloom was a terrible judge of big league "talent" -- based on what he added to the roster (including acceptable players forced into unacceptable roles), and what he passed on or let walk.

 

And saying he wasn't allowed to spend is an excuse, considering big money was spent on positional free agents with (so far) mediocre results.

 

So -- giving him the benefit of the doubt -- he was either too busy with the future, or just sucked at the present. Glad that's in the past (maybe... we'll see).

[mvp 78]

This may be wrong, because maybe Bloom actually invested more time on the farm than in the big city.

 

We don't know how much time and resources he devoted to scouting and developing prospects... but we do know that overall, Bloom was a terrible judge of big league "talent" -- based on what he added to the roster (including acceptable players forced into unacceptable roles), and what he passed on or let walk.

 

And saying he wasn't allowed to spend is an excuse, considering big money was spent on positional free agents with (so far) mediocre results.

 

So -- giving him the benefit of the doubt -- he was either too busy with the future, or just sucked at the present. Glad that's in the past (maybe... we'll see).

 

Bloom's issue was that he gave every MLB player a preset value and wouldn't budget on that value when handing out contracts. That's why we wound up with a lot of mediocre FA guys. The FA market went up and he wasn't willing to pay those prices. He wasn't willing to improve the MLB team at the trade deadline because he was never willing to "lose" on a trade because of his preassigned values he had on players. He was more apt to sit back and stay with what he already had as the market passed him by.

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/SotoC803/status/1707611475299188787

 

Sox have a 11% chance to get a #6 pick or higher.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom's issue was that he gave every MLB player a preset value and wouldn't budget on that value when handing out contracts. That's why we wound up with a lot of mediocre FA guys. The FA market went up and he wasn't willing to pay those prices. He wasn't willing to improve the MLB team at the trade deadline because he was never willing to "lose" on a trade because of his preassigned values he had on players. He was more apt to sit back and stay with what he already had as the market passed him by.

 

The question, as it pertains to 2023, is whether ownership had the budget clamps on him so tight that he had little choice but to stay cheap.

[mvp 78]

The question, as it pertains to 2023, is whether ownership had the budget clamps on him so tight that he had little choice but to stay cheap.

 

Even if he had to "stay cheap" he should have allocated his resources in a different manner. It was just poor spending to ignore the SP the way he did. Anyway, this is the Prospects thread in the Minors forum...

[Hugh2]

This may be wrong, because maybe Bloom actually invested more time on the farm than in the big city.

 

We don't know how much time and resources he devoted to scouting and developing prospects... but we do know that overall, Bloom was a terrible judge of big league "talent" -- based on what he added to the roster (including acceptable players forced into unacceptable roles), and what he passed on or let walk.

 

And saying he wasn't allowed to spend is an excuse, considering big money was spent on positional free agents with (so far) mediocre results.

 

So -- giving him the benefit of the doubt -- he was either too busy with the future, or just sucked at the present. Glad that's in the past (maybe... we'll see).

 

He invested in the farm, he didn’t invest more time into scouting guys personally. The Sox, under his guidance increased how much money they spend on trainer, player development, and increased the number of scouts nation wide.

 

Like MVP said, he likely knew the guy at the top, as is with most GMs/CBOs, I doubt he has anything to do with 17-19 of the 20 guys drafted.

 

Honestly, this is the way I like it. Sometimes your job at the top isn’t to be an expert at something but to put the right guys in the right places.

 

As horrible a job Bloom did at the big league level, many of the changes and additions he made at the lower level may pay dividends for years to come.

[moonslav59]

The question, as it pertains to 2023, is whether ownership had the budget clamps on him so tight that he had little choice but to stay cheap.

 

Bloom did spend a lot of money, last winter. He also had a lot of talent to replace, even though some of that talent had been in some sort of decline for a year or more.

 

He did offer Nate a pretty big contract, which was later withdrawn.

 

He did offer Eflin a pretty big sum of money and more years than he ended up giving Kluber.

 

I do think the budget restrictions did hamper his overall spending, but I think where he spent it seemed to be up to him, and he apparently did want to boost the rotation, earlier in the signing period. Once he missed out on plan A and plan B, it seems plan C did not involved nearly as much spending on the rotation. More was shifted to hitting and the pen.

 

Maybe he viewed Kluber as a near equal as Nate or Eflin, and maybe that looks like a bigger mistake now than it did then, in hindsight, but the fact is he seemed willing to spend a lot on the rotation, then did not.

 

There didn't seem to be any effort to bring Wacha back, and I don't recall many othe rumors on major SP'er signings. I seem to recall Seth Lugo's name and maybe one or two others, but nobody that made me think, "Wow!"

 

Another factor, I'd like to know about is whether there was a directive on not trading higher level prospects for shorter term gains, or was that mostly a Bloom choice.

[moonslav59]

He invested in the farm, he didn’t invest more time into scouting guys personally. The Sox, under his guidance increased how much money they spend on trainer, player development, and increased the number of scouts nation wide.

 

Like MVP said, he likely knew the guy at the top, as is with most GMs/CBOs, I doubt he has anything to do with 17-19 of the 20 guys drafted.

 

Honestly, this is the way I like it. Sometimes your job at the top isn’t to be an expert at something but to put the right guys in the right places.

 

As horrible a job Bloom did at the big league level, many of the changes and additions he made at the lower level may pay dividends for years to come.

 

Great points.

 

That investment made in the farm may or will take time to start seeing tangible results at the big league level.

 

To me, I have already seen enough to think improvements have been made and results have already started to be seen, including more pitching help from our own farm than we have seen in a long time. While several of the contributing players were not "Bloom kids," he did not trade them, some of "his guys" might have been involved in some of the "development" aspect of their rise or success at the big league level. He added several prospects and younger players outside of the draft and IFA, including Abreu, Whitlock, Wink, Wong, Schreiber and others not yet at the MLB level. He hardly traded any prospects, of note, over 4 years.

 

Recent prospect pitching graduates (not all Bloom kids:)

Bello

Crawford

Whitlock

Houck

Winckowski

Bernardino, Kelly, Murphy & Robertson

 

One can easily argue there doesn't seem to be many top pitching prospects on the farm, right now, and I would agree, but the above list is still encouraging, when compared to the list of homegrown pitchers we've seen between Lester and Houck.

 

My list of the best pitchers on the farm (with SP's projected starting level in '24:)

Wikelman AA

Perales A+

Gambrell AAA

Monegro A+

Drohan, Walter AAA, Hagenman AAA, Mata

Dobbins AA, E R-C A+, Bastardo AA, Rogers A+, ICoffey AA, Penrod AA, Song AA, Paez A+

RP: Kelly, Guerrero, Liu, Hoppe, Troye, Denlinger, Fernandez, Broadway, Webb, Bell

 

We may lack on blue chippers, but there are a lot of pitchers with promise and hopes.

 

The everyday player list is deeper and of higher quality.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bloom did spend a lot of money, last winter. He also had a lot of talent to replace, even though some of that talent had been in some sort of decline for a year or more.

 

He did offer Nate a pretty big contract, which was later withdrawn.

 

He did offer Eflin a pretty big sum of money and more years than he ended up giving Kluber.

 

I do think the budget restrictions did hamper his overall spending, but I think where he spent it seemed to be up to him, and he apparently did want to boost the rotation, earlier in the signing period. Once he missed out on plan A and plan B, it seems plan C did not involved nearly as much spending on the rotation. More was shifted to hitting and the pen.

 

Maybe he viewed Kluber as a near equal as Nate or Eflin, and maybe that looks like a bigger mistake now than it did then, in hindsight, but the fact is he seemed willing to spend a lot on the rotation, then did not.

 

There didn't seem to be any effort to bring Wacha back, and I don't recall many othe rumors on major SP'er signings. I seem to recall Seth Lugo's name and maybe one or two others, but nobody that made me think, "Wow!"

 

Another factor, I'd like to know about is whether there was a directive on not trading higher level prospects for shorter term gains, or was that mostly a Bloom choice.

 

We sat here the past four winters typing about which positions needed to be filled or upgraded, which free agents the Sox should pursue, and which guys they could add to the roster to make the team better. We even offered plenty of reasonable trades that were accepted on Baseball Trade Values (which no interns posing as posters relayed to their Chief).

 

But every offseason, Bloom pivoted to Plan C pitchers... almost as if his Plan A was to only ink Plan Cs. Now he pivots to Plan Couch.

[Larry Cook]

To add injury to insult, Hang’em Chaim assembled some of the worst defensive teams ever. Our infield was leakier than the titanic (post iceberg) bad pitching, terrible defense and good hitting do not win many championships

[moonslav59]

We sat here the past four winters typing about which positions needed to be filled or upgraded, which free agents the Sox should pursue, and which guys they could add to the roster to make the team better. We even offered plenty of reasonable trades that were accepted on Baseball Trade Values (which no interns posing as posters relayed to their Chief).

 

But every offseason, Bloom pivoted to Plan C pitchers... almost as if his Plan A was to only ink Plan Cs. Now he pivots to Plan Couch.

 

Winter 1, there was not enough money to spend to fill even 1/10 of our needs.

Winter 2, 1/5th.

 

To me, it's been two winters, and IMO, Bloom did pretty well with the budget in 2022 on pitching. The Story signing really hurt.

 

Winter 4 saw just $10M go to the rotation and no trades that helped it, either.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Winter 1, there was not enough money to spend to fill even 1/10 of our needs.

Winter 2, 1/5th.

 

To me, it's been two winters, and IMO, Bloom did pretty well with the budget in 2022 on pitching. The Story signing really hurt.

 

Winter 4 saw just $10M go to the rotation and no trades that helped it, either.

 

In '22, Wacha and Hill were ok, but neither top-of-the-rotation when they were signed by Bloom, or by their next clubs, for that matter. We knew that winter they wouldn't be enough, because they were prone to injury -- just like many others Bloom was counting on: Sale, Eovaldi, and the rumor of Paxton.

 

But let's agree that no matter what Bloom's budget -- though he spent big on good hit/bad glove or good glove/bad bat position players -- he never signed the Sox most important need: a top free agent starting pitcher.

[moonslav59]

In '22, Wacha and Hill were ok, but neither top-of-the-rotation when they were signed by Bloom, or by their next clubs, for that matter. We knew that winter they wouldn't be enough, because they were prone to injury -- just like many others Bloom was counting on: Sale, Eovaldi, and the rumor of Paxton.

 

But let's agree that no matter what Bloom's budget -- though he spent big on good hit/bad glove or good glove/bad bat position players -- he never signed the Sox most important need: a top free agent starting pitcher.

 

Agreed, They should have spent the Story money on an ace and had Wacha and Hill as the #3 and #4's. That would have helped the pen, too.

[Larry Cook]

Last night, Rafeala scored from third on a dribbler to the pitcher. This is what the kind of excitement and guts he brings to the lineup. I hope he and abreau start the year in Boston next year and verdugo and Duran (sell high) are traded away.

 

We can always sign Hunter Renfro and stash him in Worcester

[moonslav59]

Last night, Rafeala scored from third on a dribbler to the pitcher. This is what the kind of excitement and guts he brings to the lineup. I hope he and abreau start the year in Boston next year and verdugo and Duran (sell high) are traded away.

 

 

That was fun to watch.

[notin]

Last night, Rafeala scored from third on a dribbler to the pitcher. This is what the kind of excitement and guts he brings to the lineup. I hope he and abreau start the year in Boston next year and verdugo and Duran (sell high) are traded away.

 

We can always sign Hunter Renfro and stash him in Worcester

 

Abreu has been exciting so far, but 77 PA and a .438 BABIP might create some false expectations…

[moonslav59]

Abreu has been exciting so far, but 77 PA and a .438 BABIP might create some false expectations…

 

Sometimes, I think the BAbip number does not show the whole story.

 

While Abreu (.438) and Rafaela (.346) seem to be lucky, so far, due to their high BAbip, I'm not so sure. They have been hitting the ball hard, so they should have higher BAbips.

 

Sox leaders in LD%

28 Rafaela

27 Refsnyder

26 Duran

23 Duvall & Turner

22 Wong & Abreu

 

21 Casas & Dugo

20 McGuire

19 Reyes & Chang

18 Story, Devers & Yoshida

17 Valdez

13 Urias

 

Hard Hit %

42 Devers

40 Abreu

39 Chang

37 Casas

36 Dugo

35 Duvall & Duran

32 Wong

31 Story, Reyes & Turner

 

30 Yoshida & Valdez

26 Refsnyder

23 McGuire

19 Rafaela

[notin]

Sometimes, I think the BAbip number does not show the whole story.

 

While Abreu (.438) and Rafaela (.346) seem to be lucky, so far, due to their high BAbip, I'm not so sure. They have been hitting the ball hard, so they should have higher BAbips.

 

Sox leaders in LD%

28 Rafaela

27 Refsnyder

26 Duran

23 Duvall & Turner

22 Wong & Abreu

 

21 Casas & Dugo

20 McGuire

19 Reyes & Chang

18 Story, Devers & Yoshida

17 Valdez

13 Urias

 

Hard Hit %

42 Devers

40 Abreu

39 Chang

37 Casas

36 Dugo

35 Duvall & Duran

32 Wong

31 Story, Reyes & Turner

 

30 Yoshida & Valdez

26 Refsnyder

23 McGuire

19 Rafaela

 

And don’t you think as he piles on to his career total 77 PA, Abreu’s line drive percentage and hard hit percentage will come down? And Rafaela’s?

[moonslav59]

And don’t you think as he piles on to his career total 77 PA, Abreu’s line drive percentage and hard hit percentage will come down? And Rafaela’s?

 

Yes, but using the BAbip against him without context seemed to be hinting at him not being as good as he might be.

 

An .890 OPS is probably his ceiling and not what we should expect off 77 PAs. I'm not saying you were projecting .690 due to is BAbip, but I felt that BAbip needed context.

 

He got off to a good start, and it's not all luck.

[Larry Cook]

And don’t you think as he piles on to his career total 77 PA, Abreu’s line drive percentage and hard hit percentage will come down? And Rafaela’s?

 

Duran, dalbec, and cassas all started slow when they became full time starters, two out of the three figured it out, made the adjustments and contributed.

 

Abreau and Rafeala have earned the right to have that same chance!!!

 

Valdez defense is so bad, I am not sure he is in the same category as them!

[moonslav59]

Duran, dalbec, and cassas all started slow when they became full time starters, two out of the three figured it out, made the adjustments and contributed.

 

Abreau and Rafeala have earned the right to have that same chance!!!

 

Valdez defense is so bad, I am not sure he is in the same category as them!

 

Abreu and Rafaela will be given a chance. I don't see anyone saying otherwise.

 

Should they both be handed separate FT jobs for 2024, right now? That is a debate.

 

I think letting the two fight for one slot: CF, while giving Abreu the back up RF and maybe LF job, when not playing CF should give both plenty of opportunity to play enough to both earn a FT job during 2024.

 

If Dugo and Duran are playing so well, there is a squeeze, then trade Dugo or Duran (and/or Ref.)

 

[notin]

Duran, dalbec, and cassas all started slow when they became full time starters, two out of the three figured it out, made the adjustments and contributed.

 

Abreau and Rafeala have earned the right to have that same chance!!!

 

Valdez defense is so bad, I am not sure he is in the same category as them!

 

It’s one thing to give them s as chance. But I would temper expectations.

 

Rafaela at least has a high defensive floor. Abreu might be better off starting in Worcester and waiting for an injury or a trade of a starter…

[moonslav59]

It’s one thing to give them s as chance. But I would temper expectations.

 

Rafaela at least has a high defensive floor. Abreu might be better off starting in Worcester and waiting for an injury or a trade of a starter…

 

How would you compare Abreu's defense to these guys:

 

Dugo in RF

Duvall in RF

 

Duvall in CF

Duran in CF

 

Duran in LF

Duvall in LF

Refsnyder in LF

Yoshida in LF

 

I'd say he's worse than Dugo in RF, maybe equal to Duvall in RF.

Better than anyone else in CF, except Rafaela.

Better than anyone in LF I listed.

[Larry Cook]

How would you compare Abreu's defense to these guys:

 

Dugo in RF

Duvall in RF

 

Duvall in CF

Duran in CF

 

Duran in LF

Duvall in LF

Refsnyder in LF

Yoshida in LF

 

I'd say he's worse than Dugo in RF, maybe equal to Duvall in RF.

Better than anyone else in CF, except Rafaela.

Better than anyone in LF I listed.

 

Duvall is a free agent. Duran’s trade value is probably at an all time high. Verdugo is an extra left handed bat with trade value.

 

It is easier to trade for an outfielder and stash an AAAA outfield bat at Worcester than any other position.

 

We move verdugo and Duran and see kind of pitching prospect we can get in return

[moonslav59]

Duvall is a free agent. Duran’s trade value is probably at an all time high. Verdugo is an extra left handed bat with trade value.

 

It is easier to trade for an outfielder and stash an AAAA outfield bat at Worcester than any other position.

 

We move verdugo and Duran and see kind of pitching prospect we can get in return

 

I know Duvall is a FA, but I included him in the comps because I'm wondering if Abreu would be an improvement on D, and there is chance Duvall is brought back.

 

We will not trade both Dugo and Duran.