2023 Prospects

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They have to protect Bear Claw, at least for all the future merchandising profits: t-shirts, bumper stickers, bobble-hand night, etc.

[mvp 78]

Here's the Rule 5 list:

 

Rivaldo Avila

Angel Bastardo - maybe

Brock Bell

Royman Blanco

Brainer Bonaci - maybe

Zach Bryant

Maceo Campbell

Allan Castro - maybe

Brendan Cellucci

Felix Cepeda

Juan Chacon

Casey Cobb

Nathanael Cruz

Luis De La Rosa

Nick Decker

Kelvin Diaz

Jordan DiValerio

Shane Drohan - maybe

Juan Daniel Encarnación

Alex Erro

Albert Feliz

Ryan Fernandez - maybe

Ryan Fitzgerald

Grant Gambrell - maybe

Jhostynxon Garcia

Wikelman Gonzalez - maybe

Bryan Gonzalez

Justin Hagenman - maybe

Alexis Hernandez

Gabriel Jackson

Lyonell James

Gilberto Jimenez

Christian Koss

Robert Kwiatkowski

Chih-Jung Liu - maybe

Eduardo Lopez

Matthew Lugo

Elih Marrero

Yorberto Mejicano

Ryan Miller

Andrés Núñez

Yusniel Padron-Artiles

Eddinson Paulino

Luis Perales - maybe

Railin Perez

AJ Politi

Jose Ramirez

Oscar Rangel

Jorge Rodriguez

Ronald Rosario

Cesar Ruiz

Johnfrank Salazar

Stephen Scott - maybe

Cody Scroggins

Reidis Sena

Chase Shugart

Karson Simas

Nick Sogard

Noah Song

Dylan Spacke

Joey Stock

Luis Talavera

Nate Tellier

Michael Valera

Brian Van Belle

Diego Viloria

Jeremy Wu-Yelland

Ryan Zeferjahn

 

That's 11 guys they have to consider protecting and they won't put all of them on the 40 man roster. That's why there's a risk they'll lose a few guys to the Rule 5 draft. They can't stash a bunch of guys on the 40 man roster that they won't have any intention of using. They can probably stash 3-4 at most. The current 40 man includes Mata, Rafaela, Abreu and Hamilton, but they were reluctant to use any of them this season. Would they be willing to stash Castro for 2 years? If Bonaci is added, will they actually use his 40 man spot and call him up for his defense? Is Scott's defense good enough to be the 3rd catcher in this org? I could see an outside organization taking those 3 guys in Rule 5 if the Sox don't protect them.

[moonslav59]

Here's the Rule 5 list:

 

Rivaldo Avila

Angel Bastardo - maybe

Brock Bell

Royman Blanco

Brainer Bonaci - maybe

Zach Bryant

Maceo Campbell

Allan Castro - maybe

Brendan Cellucci

Felix Cepeda

Juan Chacon

Casey Cobb

Nathanael Cruz

Luis De La Rosa

Nick Decker

Kelvin Diaz

Jordan DiValerio

Shane Drohan - maybe

Juan Daniel Encarnación

Alex Erro

Albert Feliz

Ryan Fernandez - maybe

Ryan Fitzgerald

Grant Gambrell - maybe

Jhostynxon Garcia

Wikelman Gonzalez - maybe

Bryan Gonzalez

Justin Hagenman - maybe

Alexis Hernandez

Gabriel Jackson

Lyonell James

Gilberto Jimenez

Christian Koss

Robert Kwiatkowski

Chih-Jung Liu - maybe

Eduardo Lopez

Matthew Lugo

Elih Marrero

Yorberto Mejicano

Ryan Miller

Andrés Núñez

Yusniel Padron-Artiles

Eddinson Paulino

Luis Perales - maybe

Railin Perez

AJ Politi

Jose Ramirez

Oscar Rangel

Jorge Rodriguez

Ronald Rosario

Cesar Ruiz

Johnfrank Salazar

Stephen Scott - maybe

Cody Scroggins

Reidis Sena

Chase Shugart

Karson Simas

Nick Sogard

Noah Song

Dylan Spacke

Joey Stock

Luis Talavera

Nate Tellier

Michael Valera

Brian Van Belle

Diego Viloria

Jeremy Wu-Yelland

Ryan Zeferjahn

 

That's 11 guys they have to consider protecting and they won't put all of them on the 40 man roster. That's why there's a risk they'll lose a few guys to the Rule 5 draft. They can't stash a bunch of guys on the 40 man roster that they won't have any intention of using. They can probably stash 3-4 at most. The current 40 man includes Mata, Rafaela, Abreu and Hamilton, but they were reluctant to use any of them this season. Would they be willing to stash Castro for 2 years? If Bonaci is added, will they actually use his 40 man spot and call him up for his defense? Is Scott's defense good enough to be the 3rd catcher in this org? I could see an outside organization taking those 3 guys in Rule 5 if the Sox don't protect them.

 

Can you list your 11, and put them into 2-3 categories?

 

Must keep

 

Should keep

 

Bubble keep

[mvp 78]

Can you list your 11, and put them into 2-3 categories?

 

Must keep

 

Should keep

 

Bubble keep

 

I did list them. They were all noted as maybe.

 

I'm not going to sort them into must/should/bubble as there's no way the Sox are going to retain 11 guys.

[Bellhorn04]

Time for some more Noah Song talk!

[moonslav59]

I did list them. They were all noted as maybe.

 

I'm not going to sort them into must/should/bubble as there's no way the Sox are going to retain 11 guys.

 

OK. I was asking if you could go beyond "maybe," but you won't. That fine.

[mvp 78]

Time for some more Noah Song talk!

 

Last 2 starts in Greenville:

7 Innings

1 K

5 ER

[mvp 78]

Must Keep: Wikelman, Perales (guys I would put on the 40 man immediately after the season)

Should Keep: Bonaci, Drohan, Gambrell (guys I have to fit in prior to the Rule 5)

Bubble Keep: Liu, Castro, Bastardo, Fernandez, Hagenman, Scott (guys I would like to keep, but am going to leave unprotected even though some may be picked)

 

Liu should be pushed to the pen as his arm will play up there and he could reduce his pitch selection. Castro is looking like a really solid prospect right now and a team could jump on him, but it's more likely he goes unselected. Bastardo and Fernandez are bullpen arms the typically get scooped up via Rule 5. Neither of those two have late inning upside so I wouldn't bother protecting. Hagenman was a deadline acquisition for Bloom this year, so there's a good chance he is put onto the 40 man (I wouldn't protect for the same reason as Bastardo/Fernandez). Scott is terrible at throwing out runners and his pop time would be the worst in MLB. He'd be useful as a mix and match guy (C/1B/LF), but you don't want him catching too often and his bat still needs to play up. I could see a team selecting Scott for sure.

 

There are some other relievers in the org that could also get selected in Rule 5 like Zeferjahn, Politi, Shugart and BELL. The only guy from that group that I'd personally regret losing would be Brock Bell as he just got back from an extensive injury rehab and is still a little bit of a mystery, but probably should be up in the Portland bullpen right now.

[moonslav59]

Must Keep: Wikelman, Perales (guys I would put on the 40 man immediately after the season)

Should Keep: Bonaci, Drohan, Gambrell (guys I have to fit in prior to the Rule 5)

Bubble Keep: Liu, Castro, Bastardo, Fernandez, Hagenman, Scott (guys I would like to keep, but am going to leave unprotected even though some may be picked)

 

Liu should be pushed to the pen as his arm will play up there and he could reduce his pitch selection. Castro is looking like a really solid prospect right now and a team could jump on him, but it's more likely he goes unselected. Bastardo and Fernandez are bullpen arms the typically get scooped up via Rule 5. Neither of those two have late inning upside so I wouldn't bother protecting. Hagenman was a deadline acquisition for Bloom this year, so there's a good chance he is put onto the 40 man (I wouldn't protect for the same reason as Bastardo/Fernandez). Scott is terrible at throwing out runners and his pop time would be the worst in MLB. He'd be useful as a mix and match guy (C/1B/LF), but you don't want him catching too often and his bat still needs to play up. I could see a team selecting Scott for sure.

 

There are some other relievers in the org that could also get selected in Rule 5 like Zeferjahn, Politi, Shugart and BELL. The only guy from that group that I'd personally regret losing would be Brock Bell as he just got back from an extensive injury rehab and is still a little bit of a mystery, but probably should be up in the Portland bullpen right now.

 

Thanks for breaking it down further.

 

I think I had Paulino as a bubble guy. I don't know enough about Hagenman to respond to that choice. I'm not sure I'm all that afraid of losing Liu, Fernandez or Hagenman.

 

Castro seems far away, but I don't want to risk losing him.

 

Drohan has fallen off a cliff, but should be protected.

[mvp 78]

Thanks for breaking it down further.

 

I think I had Paulino as a bubble guy. I don't know enough about Hagenman to respond to that choice. I'm not sure I'm all that afraid of losing Liu, Fernandez or Hagenman.

 

Castro seems far away, but I don't want to risk losing him.

 

Drohan has fallen off a cliff, but should be protected.

 

Castro is far away so maybe that's his protection? He's not going to be ready to play in MLB next season IMO. I'd punt that 40 man spot for him until December '24.

 

Pitchers with starter upside (Drohan, Gambrell, Wikelman and Perales) were all retained per my rankings. Just a priority thing for me.

 

I'm not worried about losing middle relievers in Rule 5. Bloom spends all year picking more up anyway.

 

Bonaci is already in AA and he's getting all the SS reps with Mayer out. He's just a solid all around player. He's an easy fit for a 40 man spot IMO as he'd 100% get selected, but also can 100% help BOS next season at least in a part time role.

[moonslav59]

Castro is far away so maybe that's his protection? He's not going to be ready to play in MLB next season IMO. I'd punt that 40 man spot for him until December '24.

 

Pitchers with starter upside (Drohan, Gambrell, Wikelman and Perales) were all retained per my rankings. Just a priority thing for me.

 

I'm not worried about losing middle relievers in Rule 5. Bloom spends all year picking more up anyway.

 

Bonaci is already in AA and he's getting all the SS reps with Mayer out. He's just a solid all around player. He's an easy fit for a 40 man spot IMO as he'd 100% get selected, but also can 100% help BOS next season at least in a part time role.

 

Nice take.

 

One question: do you put Bonaci above DHam, if it comes to a choice?

[Dipre]

Must Keep: Wikelman, Perales (guys I would put on the 40 man immediately after the season)

Should Keep: Bonaci, Drohan, Gambrell (guys I have to fit in prior to the Rule 5)

Bubble Keep: Liu, Castro, Bastardo, Fernandez, Hagenman, Scott (guys I would like to keep, but am going to leave unprotected even though some may be picked)

 

Liu should be pushed to the pen as his arm will play up there and he could reduce his pitch selection. Castro is looking like a really solid prospect right now and a team could jump on him, but it's more likely he goes unselected. Bastardo and Fernandez are bullpen arms the typically get scooped up via Rule 5. Neither of those two have late inning upside so I wouldn't bother protecting. Hagenman was a deadline acquisition for Bloom this year, so there's a good chance he is put onto the 40 man (I wouldn't protect for the same reason as Bastardo/Fernandez). Scott is terrible at throwing out runners and his pop time would be the worst in MLB. He'd be useful as a mix and match guy (C/1B/LF), but you don't want him catching too often and his bat still needs to play up. I could see a team selecting Scott for sure.

 

There are some other relievers in the org that could also get selected in Rule 5 like Zeferjahn, Politi, Shugart and BELL. The only guy from that group that I'd personally regret losing would be Brock Bell as he just got back from an extensive injury rehab and is still a little bit of a mystery, but probably should be up in the Portland bullpen right now.

 

Very nice breakdown.

[moonslav59]

How many 40 man roster slots do you lock down for middle IF?

 

4 or 5?

 

1. Story

2. Urias

3. Reyes

4. EValdez

T5. DHam

T5. Bonaci

 

Do we add someone from outside the system?

Is EValdez trade bait?

 

[moonslav59]

How many 40 man roster slots do we lock down for OF'ers?

 

1. Dugo (trade?)

2. Duran

3. Refsnyder

4. Yoshida (DH?)

5. Rafaela

6. Abreu

 

Do we add someone from outside the system?

Is Duran trade bait?

 

(Rosier does not need Rule 5 protection, but could be in season depth, if needed.)

 

[moonslav59]

Does Dalbec make the 40, or will he be traded?

 

Who would be the back-up 1Bman?

 

Devers?

EValdez?

 

(Jordan and kavadas do not need Rule 5 protection.)

[mvp 78]

Does Dalbec make the 40, or will he be traded?

 

Who would be the back-up 1Bman?

 

Devers?

EValdez?

 

(Jordan and kavadas do not need Rule 5 protection.)

 

Dalbec will probably get called up the end of this year and we'll see him get a little bit of run. He's probably traded or released this offseason. It was a complete waste of a roster spot this season. Putting him at SS? LOL

[mvp 78]

To answer your question, I think they bring back either Turner or Duvall, both of whom have 1B experience. I don't think they want Kavadas playing 1B at the MLB level. They usually grab some 28 year old AAAA 1B every offseason, so I'd expect them to do that as well.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec will probably get called up the end of this year and we'll see him get a little bit of run. He's probably traded or released this offseason. It was a complete waste of a roster spot this season. Putting him at SS? LOL

 

We ionly get one everyday players slot on Sept 1st. I think we keep Rafaela and Abreu up, when Duran returns.

[mvp 78]

We ionly get one everyday players slot on Sept 1st. I think we keep Rafaela and Abreu up, when Duran returns.

 

Duran is out for the year due to surgery?

[Old Red]

Song 5 IP- 1 H- 3 BB- 1 K- 0 Runs tonight.

[mvp 78]

Song 5 IP- 1 H- 3 BB- 1 K- 0 Runs tonight.

 

Last 12 Innings:

 

2 K

[mvp 78]

Ian Cundall from SoxProspects was at Greenville last night so it'll be interesting to hear what he has to say about Song's start. It's good that he was able to go 5 innings. I'm not going to get too excited about it because of the extreme lack of strike outs.

 

@IanCundall

Noah Song tonight in Greenville: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 K. 71 p/37 s. FB, SL, CH, CB. Mostly FB 89-93 & SL 80-84. Delivery is a work in progress which is understandable given time off. Arm gets out of sync & inconsistent release point, but he executed when needed w/runners on.

 

https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1696681957172658561

 

I'm glad that the Sox are giving him a chance to start again. He wasn't going to get that staying with the Phillies.

[Old Red]

Last 12 Innings:

 

2 K

 

Yes, that is not an eye opener for sure.

[Bellhorn04]

Song 5 IP- 1 H- 3 BB- 1 K- 0 Runs tonight.

 

It's a start.

[moonslav59]

Duran is out for the year due to surgery?

 

Yes, I saw that after my post.

 

I'm still not sure Dalbec gets that one Sept 1st slot, though.

 

DHam?

EValdez?

Maybe add Stephen Scott?

 

[Old Red]

It's a start.

 

Maybe an offseason strengthening, and conditioning program can help him improve. There is nothing to lose in trying, and it would be a good story if it worked out.

Edited August 30, 2023 by Old Red

[Old Red]

Mayer still out, and hasn’t begun to swing a bat yet. The manager doesn’t know if he will be back this year, or not. He is expected to play in the Arizona Fall League.

[Hugh2]

I think he might have reached 8th or 9th on SPs, but I never considered him a "top prospect."

 

I was convinced Ben was going to pull the trigger on a big prospect deal or two, before he was replaced by DD, and I think Bloom will, at some point. The question is, when not if, to me.

 

IMO, we just went through a 5 year rebuild, without anyone in management saying it. All the telltale signs are there.

 

No top prospects dealt.

Almost every deal that brought us a vet had a prospect attached to it.

No long term deals for almost 3 years (until Story in March '22,) and that goes back to the spring 2019 extensions to Sale, Bogey and Nate.

A ton of one year deals.

 

It wasn't a full blown teardown rebuild, of course, but it seems obvious, to me, the number one priority has been to build up the farm.

 

That begs the question, "For what?"

 

I honestly think the plan has been to wait to splurge and go for it all, again, until they think the farm is set up where we already have some young players who recently graduated and also a pretty well set up expected pipeline of incoming prospects. Are we there yet?

 

I do think we have the graduated core in place: Casas, Duran, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Winckowski & Whitlock, (Urias & Devers are younger than Whitlock), and to me, we have a pretty nicely set up stream of projected prospects being called up:

 

Now to 2024: Rafaela, Abreu, Bernardino, Kelly, Murphy, Walter, EValdeez, DHam and maybe Mayer, Wikelman, Yorke, Mata, Drohan or Guerrero.

 

We also have a very nice looking set of prospects due to join the club between 2025 and 2026 and another set is 2026 or beyond.

 

I'd say, we have arrived, but I'm not sure JH, Bloom & Co. agree.

 

I'd like to see us pull of one major prospect trade for a solid SP'er who is 27 or younger and has 3+ years of control. Then, sign Urias or YY from Japan. Add some OF and MI depth and we can be a solid contender in 2024.,

 

8th in a much weaker system to me is not an impactful prospect. Mayb he's a MLBer some day, but if I had to guess he might not even be in the top 20 in this system. He'd probably be right around 20.

[Hugh2]

Time for some more Noah Song talk!

 

The thing about Song is, that every single team had a chance to acquire him thru waivers BEFORE he got returned to Boston this year. So that hints there's very good chance he's not going to be picked again. And given what he showed, he may not be worth the risk anymore.

[Hugh2]

Ian Cundall from SoxProspects was at Greenville last night so it'll be interesting to hear what he has to say about Song's start. It's good that he was able to go 5 innings. I'm not going to get too excited about it because of the extreme lack of strike outs.

 

@IanCundall

Noah Song tonight in Greenville: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 K. 71 p/37 s. FB, SL, CH, CB. Mostly FB 89-93 & SL 80-84. Delivery is a work in progress which is understandable given time off. Arm gets out of sync & inconsistent release point, but he executed when needed w/runners on.

 

https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1696681957172658561

 

I'm glad that the Sox are giving him a chance to start again. He wasn't going to get that staying with the Phillies.

 

No he wasn't. He's still more likely a reliever now at this point in time, but even then it makes all the sense in the world to let him start. If for no other reason than to get him the reps he's missed over the years.