2023 Prospects

[Fan_since_Boggs]

@gfstarr1

Red Sox outfield prospect Wilyer Abreu is the International League’s Player of the Week for August 7-13.

 

In 6 games during that span, he went 13-for-22 with 6 HR, including a grand slam on Saturday and the first-ever 3-homer game by a WooSox player on Sunday.

 

The Red Sox starting OF next year: Duran (LF), Rafaela (CF) and Abreu (RF). That should be an excellent defensive OF and Rafaela and Abreu have now proven they can hit at the AAA level. With Devers, Casas (2nd year), Yoshida (2nd year), and Story, they will have enough established hitters to carry two rookies in the OF. They can also play Yoshida from time to time in the OF, move Duran to CF or RF to give one of the rookies a day off (if struggling). In that scenario, the Red Sox should think about bringing in a veteran hitter who can DH when Yoshida plays in the OF.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox starting OF next year: Duran (LF), Rafaela (CF) and Abreu (RF). That should be an excellent defensive OF and Rafaela and Abreu have now proven they can hit at the AAA level. With Devers, Casas (2nd year), Yoshida (2nd year), and Story, they will have enough established hitters to carry two rookies in the OF. They can also play Yoshida from time to time in the OF, move Duran to CF or RF to give one of the rookies a day off (if struggling). In that scenario, the Red Sox should think about bringing in a veteran hitter who can DH when Yoshida plays in the OF.

 

I might be okay with Refsnyder as the 4th OF'er and Yoshida as the DH and 5th OF'er, and roll the dice, but adding a decent depth OF'er might be smarter.

 

[moonslav59]

MLB.com ranks our farm #14- a bit lower than some other rankings. Here is what they wrote:

 

The Red Sox may have the most imbalanced system in the game, heavy on hitters and light on pitchers. Their eight best prospects are all position players, including Top 100 talent in Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Kyle Teel, with former Top 100 guys Miguel Bleis and Nick Yorke right behind them. Boston's international scouting department is doing its best to pick up the slack by finding arms such as Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales...

 

Overall, the Red Sox are encouraged by the improvement of their farm system since Chaim Bloom took over as chief baseball officer of the club in October 2019.

 

Here is their top 30 list:

 

Red Sox Top Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

[Bellhorn04]

I might be okay with Refsnyder as the 4th OF'er and Yoshida as the DH and 5th OF'er, and roll the dice, but adding a decent depth OF'er might be smarter.

 

 

Refsnyder was already re-signed for next year.

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder was already re-signed for next year.

 

Yes, I know. I'm saying I don't think we need to add an OF'er, even if we trade Dugo, but some depth, maybe like bringing Duvall back might be smart.

 

Rolling the dice on rafaela and Abreu as having major roles on the 2024 team is a big gamble. I like both, but we'd need probably insurance.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox starting OF next year: Duran (LF), Rafaela (CF) and Abreu (RF). That should be an excellent defensive OF and Rafaela and Abreu have now proven they can hit at the AAA level. With Devers, Casas (2nd year), Yoshida (2nd year), and Story, they will have enough established hitters to carry two rookies in the OF. They can also play Yoshida from time to time in the OF, move Duran to CF or RF to give one of the rookies a day off (if struggling). In that scenario, the Red Sox should think about bringing in a veteran hitter who can DH when Yoshida plays in the OF.

 

I don't think they go with Abreu as a fulltime guy. I think he could be that guy at some point, but they don't seem to be pushing him that way. Maybe he's a bench guy who backs up all three OF positions?

[mvp 78]

From Baseball America's Hot Sheet:

 

1. Wilyer Abreu, OF, Red Sox

Team: Triple-A Worcester (International)

Age: 24

 

Why He’s Here: .591/.625/1.500 (13-for-22), 7 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 16 RBIs, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0-for-0 SB

 

The Scoop: Last week Abreu’s power display was similar to a fireworks show, as he built up with each game, culminating in a three-home run game on Sunday. Over the course of the series with Buffalo, Abreu reached base two or more times in all six games while hitting a home run in four out of the six games. Acquired from the Astros alongside Enmanuel Valdez at the 2022 trade deadline, Abreu is hitting .268/.380/.521 with 20 home runs over 80 games with Triple-A Worcester this season. He has above-average on-base skills, solid bat-to-ball skills, average power and the ability to play all three outfield positions. Abreu is able to get the most out of his average raw power with excellent launch angles, as he consistently shows the ability to elevate the ball on his best-struck contact and to his pull side. (GP)

 

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Looks like Red Sox recent Korean IFA signing RHP Chansol Lee has reported to Fort Myers, per his Instagram.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Johanfran Garcia will bat cleanup for Salem tonight in his full season debut. The Sox Prospects guys were on him this spring, and after his impressive FCL showing, other publications are catching up. Garcia has a powerful bat with solid approach, and could stick behind the plate.

[Hugh2]

I don't think they go with Abreu as a fulltime guy. I think he could be that guy at some point, but they don't seem to be pushing him that way. Maybe he's a bench guy who backs up all three OF positions?

 

I don't see him as a regular either, but I could be wrong, as can be everyone else.

 

I like your assessment, a bench guy who gets 400 at-bats a season backing up all outfield positions and pinch-hitting.

 

He's the type of guy that when you have on your roster you don't have to go out and throw money at Adam Duvall.

[moonslav59]

It's likely too early to know what outcome Abreu will have.

 

He may bomb out.

He may barely stick to a ML roster.

He may be mostly a 4th OF'er.

He may be a platoon OF'er.

He may be a FT'er.

He may be a star.

 

[mvp 78]

I don't see him as a regular either, but I could be wrong, as can be everyone else.

 

I like your assessment, a bench guy who gets 400 at-bats a season backing up all outfield positions and pinch-hitting.

 

He's the type of guy that when you have on your roster you don't have to go out and throw money at Adam Duvall.

 

SoxProspects called him a "second division regular," so like a starter for the Pirates or Nats. Honestly, why can't that work in the short term for the Sox until someone better comes along internally?

 

He's patient at the plate, has really good defense and a little pop. I think they can squeeze him onto the roster next year and give him a shot. Use the money saved on the pitching staff.

[mvp 78]

It's likely too early to know what outcome Abreu will have.

 

He may bomb out.

He may barely stick to a ML roster.

He may be mostly a 4th OF'er.

He may be a platoon OF'er.

He may be a FT'er.

He may be a star.

 

 

Well, yeah.

[mvp 78]

Romero was promoted to High A.

[Hugh2]

SoxProspects called him a "second division regular," so like a starter for the Pirates or Nats. Honestly, why can't that work in the short term for the Sox until someone better comes along internally?

 

He's patient at the plate, has really good defense and a little pop. I think they can squeeze him onto the roster next year and give him a shot. Use the money saved on the pitching staff.

 

He's also a lefty, maybe he crushes righties at the next level and a ref/Wil platoon = the same production as an all-star corner outfielder. Hey, the Gomes/Nava platoon was a wonderful thing. He can also back up other positions on top of the platoon too.

[mvp 78]

Natanael Yuten (#44, OF) was also called up to Salem today. He hit really well in the FCL, but has a very skinny frame with not much athletic build at all (150 lbs is being generous). He hits the ball all over the place and runs well, so it should be interesting to see him against a little better competition (880 OPS FCL).

[moonslav59]

Also...

 

GRE>POR: Bonaci

 

SAL>GRE: C Coffey

 

FCL>SAL: Alcantara

 

 

[moonslav59]

SPs reports on the farm's playoff picture

 

Playoff update

 

The Triple-A season doesn't end until September 24, but the Red Sox are 24-14 in the second half, tied with Lehigh Valley for the second-half International League lead. The two squads are 1.5 games ahead of Durham, Jacksonville and St. Paul.

 

Portland also has more than a month left in its season and trails the Northeast Division's first-half winner, Somerset, by 2.5 games, with a 19-20 record. Binghamton is between them at two games back and would earn the playoff spot if Somerset wins the division.

 

Greenville, which has already clinched a playoff spot by virtue of winning the first half of the South Division, sits at 20-22. The Drive's season ends September 10, and the team will then face the second-half division winner.

 

Salem's season will conclude September 10. The Red Sox are at 18-24, nine games back in the North Division.

 

The FCL season ends August 22 and the Red Sox are in the thick of the playoff chase. They're two games back of the Pirates and are a half-game up on the Phillies in the wild card race. The Red Sox have seven games left, including Tuesday's contest.

 

The DSL squads, Red and Blue, have been eliminated from the division, which has been clinched by Pirates Gold. They're also eliminated from the wild card race.

[moonslav59]

Fernandez blew a big WOO lead in the 9th.

Drohan had his best game in AAA, tonight:

6IP, 3H, 0ER, 1BB, 10K

Scott went 2-4 w HR (1.028 OPS) Will he be protected on Rule 5?

Rafaela 1-5 w 3B

 

POR won 9-6 as Gambrell struggled a bit.

Yorke 2-4 w HR, BB

Dearden 2-4 w HR, BB

Rosier 2-4 2 2B

Binelas 2-4 w 2B

Bonaci 1-3 w 2BB

 

GRE & Encarnacio got killed, but...

Anthony 4-5 (1.042)

Romero 0-5 in A+ debut.

 

SAL won 6-2

Joh Garcia 1-5 w 2B

Yuten 0-1 w BB in A- debut

 

FCL and both DSL teams won

Zantello 1-3 w 2B

Cespedes 1-5 w 2B

Ruiz 3-5 w 3B

Asenccio 2-5 w 2B

 

[sk7326]

very very small sample - but Teel raking in Greenville. That he raked on the complex and in Greenville is something we should expect from an accomplished collegian - he probably faced better competition in the ACC.

 

He'd probably be no worse than 2nd in the position players in terms of "first to Boston" - excluding September callups.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB Pipeline just ranked all 30 farm systems. Red Sox were #16... they were #11 a year ago... and #12 two years ago. I'm so confused -- Bloom!

[sk7326]

MLB Pipeline just ranked all 30 farm systems. Red Sox were #16... they were #11 a year ago... and #12 two years ago. I'm so confused -- Bloom!

 

Rankings are not gospel. that said - for the most part - the differences in assessment of the Red Sox system comes down to:

 

95% - what do you think of the Red Sox org pitching

5% - how do you rank Bleis

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Rankings are not gospel. that said - for the most part - the differences in assessment of the Red Sox system comes down to:

 

95% - what do you think of the Red Sox org pitching

5% - how do you rank Bleis

 

Fangraphs had Boston #4...

 

... but when you say "you" is that me, specifically, or all analysts in general?

 

And that would include fans, websites, media and voters; for instance, a decade ago, the Red Sox had the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year in 2013, Anthony Ranaudo, and 2014, Henry Owens. That certainly had to help Boston's rankings -- at least as far as pitching prospects. But alas, those awards may have been the highlights of both of their professional careers...

[moonslav59]

MLB Pipeline just ranked all 30 farm systems. Red Sox were #16... they were #11 a year ago... and #12 two years ago. I'm so confused -- Bloom!

 

I'm not big on their ranking system, but we did graduate a few very good players:

Bello

Casas

Wong

Murphy

[Larry Cook]

I'm not big on their ranking system, but we did graduate a few very good players:

Bello

Casas

Wong

Murphy

 

I agree. Graduation is definitely affecting our ranking negatively!! Good call on that.

 

Two other things holding us back in the rankings:

 

First: we have some vastly underrated prospects because of the power bias in the rankings: for example rosier, A Castro, and bonaci. They do not have much power. But they hit well, play defense and can steal bags! They barely get noticed outside of diehard Sox fans.

 

Second: the lack of pitching in our system is always going to hold us back in the rankings. We got two guys with stuff that plays. Winkleman and montgero! Also the guy with the best stuff in the system, mata, is injured and before he was injured, he had command and control issues! Most every other pitcher we have is JAG in terms of stuff.

 

Hang’em Chaim is building an incredible pipeline of offense. And I think he is a year ahead of schedule in terms of rebuilding our offensive pipeline. However only he knows what his pitching pipeline philosophy is, and I am not sure even he has a clue what he is doing because right now, it is a mess!!!!

[moonslav59]

I agree. Graduation is definitely affecting our ranking negatively!! Good call on that.

 

Two other things holding us back in the rankings:

 

First: we have some vastly underrated prospects because of the power bias in the rankings: for example rosier, A Castro, and bonaci. They do not have much power. But they hit well, play defense and can steal bags! They barely get noticed outside of diehard Sox fans.

 

Second: the lack of pitching in our system is always going to hold us back in the rankings. We got two guys with stuff that plays. Winkleman and montgero! Also the guy with the best stuff in the system, mata, is injured and before he was injured, he had command and control issues! Most every other pitcher we have is JAG in terms of stuff.

 

Hang’em Chaim is building an incredible pipeline of offense. And I think he is a year ahead of schedule in terms of rebuilding our offensive pipeline. However only he knows what his pitching pipeline philosophy is, and I am not sure even he has a clue what he is doing because right now, it is a mess!!!!

 

Other teams graduated some top prospects, too, so that can't be all of it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Other teams graduated some top prospects, too, so that can't be all of it.

 

Fair point. I'm now a Moon apologist.

[moonslav59]

Fair point. I'm now a Moon apologist.

 

I don't think Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Bleis or Yorke graduate, next season, so I think we rise, some more. Rafaela may graduate mid or late 2024. Maybe Abreu and Walter.

 

We have a few guys that have dropped, like Yorke, Bleis and Mata who might rebound, next year, but I'm really high on so many of our lower level prospects that I have to think some are going to jump a ton, next year, or even in the next month.

 

Cespedes

Monegro

Zantello

Joh Garcia

Castro

AAnderson

C & I Coffey

Yuten, Arias and others

 

Maybe 1 or 2 from these guys surprise between now and next August:

Wikelman, Perales, Drohan and E R-C

 

or this group:

Hickey, Meidroth, Bonaci, EValdez, DHam, Paulino, Guerrero, Kavadas and Scott

 

Or this...

Romero, Jordan, Alcantara, Dobbins, Bastardo, Rogers, Paez and more...

 

 

[moonslav59]

Houck pitched well for Woo, in their 8-1 win.

4IP 1H 0ER 0BB 4K

Abreu homered, again- (1-2 w 2BB)

Scott homered (1-3 w BB)

DHam homered (1-3 w 2BB)

 

POR is winning 7-1

Dobbins 7IP, 5H, 1ER, 0BB, 8K

Meidroth 2-4

Sikes 1-3 HR

 

 

[moonslav59]

On SPs, there are some interesting projections on what players will start at certain levels in the system.

 

Some felt Mayer might be near MLB ready by AUG/SEP 2023, but they have him starting 2024 in AA. The projected Portland team looks pretty good: Wikelman, Bastardo, Gambrell, ICoffey, and Dobbins in the rotation. C- Hickey, 1B-Jordan, 2B-Bonaci, SS- Mayer, 3B-Paulino, OF-McDonough, Sikes & BGon with Lugo at DH.

 

AAA has Drohan, Walter, Van Belle, Liu and Hadenman in the rotation, but maybe Murphy ends up there. The pen might make for some nice ML depth: Kelly, Guerrero, Politi, Robertson, Jacques and Fernandez.

C- Scott, 1B-Dalbec, 2B-Yorke, SS-DHam, 3B-Meidroth, OF- Rosier, Rafaela, Abreu w EValdez at DH.

 

It seems the upper levels of the farm should be pretty good.

 

GRE (A+): Perales, Paez, Rogers, E R-C

Teel, Ravelo, CCoffey, Romero, Anthony, Castro...

 

SAL (A-): Monegro

Joh Garcia, Alcantara, AAnderson, Zanetello, Bleis, Yuten, Brannon

 

Projected Prospects ML ready by the end of 2025:

 

P: Wikelman, Walter, Drohan, Mata, Guerrero, Dobbins, Hoppe, Robertson, Troye, ICoffey

C: Teel, Scott

1B: (Dalbec), Jordan

2B: Yorke, EValdez

3B: Bonaci, Meidroth, Paulino

SS: Mayer, DHam

OF: Rafaela, Abreu, Rosier

DH: Hickey, EValdez, Kavadas, Lugo

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by moonslav59