Devers next deal

[notin]

A Minnesota vulture is circling the Rafael Devers prey:

 

A Potential Trade for Rafael Devers - Minnesota Twins Free Agents & Trade Rumors - Twins Daily

TWINSDAILY.COM

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While reading “3 Third Baseman Trades that Could Provide the Twins a Productive Bat” posted by Nate Palmer, I got a very interesting idea. The first trade he proposed is one for Rafael Devers, which got me thinking… The Minnesota Twins are in a unique place where depth isn’t quite a concern anymo...

 

And judging by the comments, not garnering much support. One of those “hey let’s trade our spare parts for a superstar” blogs.

 

If the Sox shop Devers, they will absolutely see more exciting packages than Kepler and Arraez…

[moonslav59]

And judging by the comments, not garnering much support. One of those “hey let’s trade our spare parts for a superstar” blogs.

 

If the Sox shop Devers, they will absolutely see more exciting packages than Kepler and Arraez…

 

All Sox are grossly over-rated, although BTV rates that deal as pretty close to even.

[notin]

All Sox are grossly over-rated, although BTV rates that deal as pretty close to even.

 

And a deal for Miranda and Ober would be equally close and make even more sense for Boston…

[harmony]

And judging by the comments, not garnering much support. One of those “hey let’s trade our spare parts for a superstar” blogs.

 

If the Sox shop Devers, they will absolutely see more exciting packages than Kepler and Arraez…

Even with the former's down season, Max Kepler and Luis Arraez, who come with multiple years of team control, this year combined for more fWAR than Rafael Devers posted.

 

The Red Sox should hope to better a package of Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong.

[moonslav59]

Even with the former's down season, Max Kepler and Luis Arraez, who come with multiple years of team control, this year combined for more fWAR than Rafael Devers posted.

 

The Red Sox should hope to better a package of Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong.

 

We are not including Sale, so yes, it should be better, although Verdugo was a pretty prized player, at the time, and Downs was a consensus top 100. They both did not come through as hoped, but it's always somewhat of a guessing game with any trade.

 

I'm not sure getting Graterol, instead moves the needle, much, nor the reported Padres offer. Maybe we could have held out for more. Maybe not.

 

I do wonder what we get without Half-Price sewn to Betts' back..

Edited December 27, 2022 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ok, Red Sox, it's next year and you're on the clock.

 

Opening Day is March 30.

 

89 days to decide about Devers...

[moonslav59]

I'm sure the Sox have a point where they will never go over.

I'm pretty sure that point is lower than I'd suggest they should go.

They must know what Devers wants and how close or far away they are.

It's when they get to this point something happens, actually, it seems like nothing happens, and that's the beginning of the end.

 

Just make up your minds and pull the trigger. I hope that would mean locking him up large and long, but if not, just pull off the bandaid and trade him for the best you can get- which should be a pretty damn good return. Don't attach Sale.

 

Make up your minds!

[Bellhorn04]

We are not including Sale, so yes, it should be better, although Verdugo was a pretty prized player, at the time, and Downs was a consensus top 100. They both did not come through as hoped, but it's always somewhat of a guessing game with any trade.

 

I'm not sure getting Graterol, instead moves the needle, much, nor the reported Padres offer. Maybe we could have held out for more. Maybe not.

 

I do wonder what we get without Half-Price sewn to Betts' back..

 

What's Raffy's BTV?

[notin]

What's Raffy's BTV?

 

Surplus value of $37mill…

[Bellhorn04]

Surplus value of $37mill…

 

Thanks, makes sense.

[notin]

Thanks, makes sense.

 

Thinking they have him as a 6+ fWAR player making $17mill for one season.

 

Of course the value of one WAR went up noticeably this off-season…

[moonslav59]

Surplus value of $37mill…

 

And, Sale is -$13M, so Devers, alone brings back $37M and a Devers/Sale package brings back $24M.

 

I'm not sure what 1 year of Betts was worth, when we traded him, and how much Price was under, at that time.

[Bellhorn04]

And, Sale is -$13M, so Devers, alone brings back $37M and a Devers/Sale package brings back $24M.

 

I'm not sure what 1 year of Betts was worth, when we traded him, and how much Price was under, at that time.

 

Can you get retroactive BTV's?

[notin]

And, Sale is -$13M, so Devers, alone brings back $37M and a Devers/Sale package brings back $24M.

 

I'm not sure what 1 year of Betts was worth, when we traded him, and how much Price was under, at that time.

 

 

Looking though my history, in October 2019, Betts had a surplus value of $49.9mill while Price had a surplus value of -$69.9 mill

[moonslav59]

Can you get retroactive BTV's?

 

The trade was:

 

50.7 Mookie

-55.3 Price

78M Cash

 

for

 

47.7 Verdugo (almost worth equal to Mookie due to yrs of control)

21.7 Downs

4.3 Wong

 

These values compare to...

 

48 Verduo = Between 55 Mayer or 41 Casas

 

22 Downs = more than 19 Schreiber or Houck

 

4 Wong = between 5 Paulino or 3.8 Mata

 

[notin]

The trade was:

 

50.7 Mookie

-55.3 Price

78M Cash

 

for

 

47.7 Verdugo (almost worth equal to Mookie due to yrs of control)

21.7 Downs

4.3 Wong

 

These values compare to...

 

48 Verduo = Between 55 Mayer or 41 Casas

 

22 Downs = more than 19 Schreiber or Houck

 

4 Wong = between 5 Paulino or 3.8 Mata

 

 

The Sox did add $45mill in cash, but I believe the $78mill was only added on the site so the trade could get approved…

[moonslav59]

The Sox did add $45mill in cash, but I believe the $78mill was only added on the site so the trade could get approved…

 

Ahhh, sounds right, and when half=Price opted out of 2020, the Dodgers and Sox both saved about $15M each.

 

So, we paid $30M with Price and Betts (about +$25M on BTV)

for

Verdugo, Downs and Wong (about +$70M on BTV)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Remember when fans and media predicted this offseason would define Bloom's tenure in Boston? With all that money freed up to make the Red Sox way better, he signed a handful of back-end relievers, a #4 starter, and a Japanese star yet to play a game in the majors. He also lost his three-four batters, one of whom was an All-Star shortstop.

 

Now it all comes down to Devers. How Raffy is resolved may really define Chaim Bloom's legacy. Whether or not to meet Devers' price and extend him will ultimately be up to ownership. But any trade return is all on Bloom.

 

Please don't bore us with the limited exchanges for "only one year" of Devers. Bloom has been here since 2019; what could he have received for two years or three years of Raffy?

 

No more excuses about misreading the market. If ownership can't hire executives who can read the market, then they should just sell the franchise to new owners who can.

[Hugh2]

Remember when fans and media predicted this offseason would define Bloom's tenure in Boston? With all that money freed up to make the Red Sox way better, he signed a handful of back-end relievers, a #4 starter, and a Japanese star yet to play a game in the majors. He also lost his three-four batters, one of whom was an All-Star shortstop.

 

Now it all comes down to Devers. How Raffy is resolved may really define Chaim Bloom's legacy. Whether or not to meet Devers' price and extend him will ultimately be up to ownership. But any trade return is all on Bloom.

 

Please don't bore us with the limited exchanges for "only one year" of Devers. Bloom has been here since 2019; what could he have received for two years or three years of Raffy?

 

No more excuses about misreading the market. If ownership can't hire executives who can read the market, then they should just sell the franchise to new owners who can.

 

I think there’s a difference between excuses and a reason. There’s a reason for everything. Saying something like “The Red Sox misread the market” is fact. Perhaps it’s conjecture and not fact but it feels obvious to me. But! I do agree that if the people you hire are showing a track record of misreading the market, then start hiring people who can.

 

In terms of Raffy, I think it’s a hindsight reaction to say “well if they aren’t going to get a return for one year then we should have traded him longer ago”. Well, you’re only one step closer to, let’s trade everyone before they get to arbitration years. Even if a guy is determined to get to FA (and many are and may chose to never sign extensions) having 2-3 years of a premium player is worth it to an organization that is expected to compete year in and year out.

 

It’s like the old saying goes “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush”

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think there’s a difference between excuses and a reason. There’s a reason for everything. Saying something like “The Red Sox misread the market” is fact. Perhaps it’s conjecture and not fact but it feels obvious to me. But! I do agree that if the people you hire are showing a track record of misreading the market, then start hiring people who can.

 

In terms of Raffy, I think it’s a hindsight reaction to say “well if they aren’t going to get a return for one year then we should have traded him longer ago”. Well, you’re only one step closer to, let’s trade everyone before they get to arbitration years. Even if a guy is determined to get to FA (and many are and may chose to never sign extensions) having 2-3 years of a premium player is worth it to an organization that is expected to compete year in and year out.

 

It’s like the old saying goes “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush”

 

Just as long as when you trade him, the return is more than just two bush leaguers...

[Old Red]

Remember when fans and media predicted this offseason would define Bloom's tenure in Boston? With all that money freed up to make the Red Sox way better, he signed a handful of back-end relievers, a #4 starter, and a Japanese star yet to play a game in the majors. He also lost his three-four batters, one of whom was an All-Star shortstop.

 

Now it all comes down to Devers. How Raffy is resolved may really define Chaim Bloom's legacy. Whether or not to meet Devers' price and extend him will ultimately be up to ownership. But any trade return is all on Bloom.

 

Please don't bore us with the limited exchanges for "only one year" of Devers. Bloom has been here since 2019; what could he have received for two years or three years of Raffy?

 

No more excuses about misreading the market. If ownership can't hire executives who can read the market, then they should just sell the franchise to new owners who can.

 

I would say this sums things up things pretty well. Three years of Bloom is three years to many, and like I’ve been say JH as good an owner as he has been might have used up his usefulness, and his commitment to winning.

[notin]

Remember when fans and media predicted this offseason would define Bloom's tenure in Boston? With all that money freed up to make the Red Sox way better, he signed a handful of back-end relievers, a #4 starter, and a Japanese star yet to play a game in the majors. He also lost his three-four batters, one of whom was an All-Star shortstop.

 

Now it all comes down to Devers. How Raffy is resolved may really define Chaim Bloom's legacy. Whether or not to meet Devers' price and extend him will ultimately be up to ownership. But any trade return is all on Bloom.

 

Please don't bore us with the limited exchanges for "only one year" of Devers. Bloom has been here since 2019; what could he have received for two years or three years of Raffy?

 

No more excuses about misreading the market. If ownership can't hire executives who can read the market, then they should just sell the franchise to new owners who can.

 

So you think the Sox should prioritize maximizing trade value over playing baseball?

 

The Sox made a lot of noise in 2021 and probably expected to do so again in 2022. One bad season is not a reason to rewrite history and retroactively dump everyone…

[Bellhorn04]

The conventional wisdom in situations like this, of course, has been to trade the player at the deadline if out of contention.

 

The ever-expanding playoffs have made the decision process a little muddier, as we saw with the Red Sox last year.

[notin]

The conventional wisdom in situations like this, of course, has been to trade the player at the deadline if out of contention.

 

The ever-expanding playoffs have made the decision process a little muddier, as we saw with the Red Sox last year.

 

But what hasn’t changed in the effectiveness of unloading players for prospects. It does work sometimes when you get major leaguer future talent, but other times you just get minor leaguers…

[Bellhorn04]

But what hasn’t changed in the effectiveness of unloading players for prospects. It does work sometimes when you get major leaguer future talent, but other times you just get minor leaguers…

 

Agreed.

 

And the BTV analysis shows that Bloom did about as well as he could have on the Betts trade.

[moonslav59]

Remember when fans and media predicted this offseason would define Bloom's tenure in Boston? With all that money freed up to make the Red Sox way better, he signed a handful of back-end relievers, a #4 starter, and a Japanese star yet to play a game in the majors. He also lost his three-four batters, one of whom was an All-Star shortstop.

 

Now it all comes down to Devers. How Raffy is resolved may really define Chaim Bloom's legacy. Whether or not to meet Devers' price and extend him will ultimately be up to ownership. But any trade return is all on Bloom.

 

Please don't bore us with the limited exchanges for "only one year" of Devers. Bloom has been here since 2019; what could he have received for two years or three years of Raffy?

 

No more excuses about misreading the market. If ownership can't hire executives who can read the market, then they should just sell the franchise to new owners who can.

 

Only the Sale contract remains as a minor excuse for Bloom. This is his team, now- budget restrictions and farm building priorities and all. It was his make or break winter, and there seems little more he will do, other than handle the Devers situation and maybe make one bold trade.

 

I have serious doubts about the areas he chose to address with the limited but not meager winter spending budget given him, this off season. Frankly, I'm surprised he spent so much on a DH/L'er and DH/3B/1Bman. I do applaud his pen repair, and even though I'd prefer keeping Whitlock and Houck in this upgraded pen, making it a big strength, I'm okay with Whilock getting his chance to start and give us 150+ IP over 100-110. I expected a better winter with more emphasis on quality over quantity. I thought the whole quantity philosophy had run its course. The explosion of top end contracts, by itself, limited what I hoped we could have done with the expected $90M winter budget, and not spending it all, yet is a bit surprising, too.

 

All this being said, when I look at our line-up., I see more odds-on chances for improvement than decline. Will 5-6 improved slots outweigh losing Bogey and to a lesser extent JD? If we think about losing the 2018-2019 or to a lesser extent, even the 2021 JD, I'm not sure Turner & Co. can do that, but I do see a good chance for improvement over the 2020 or 2022 JD. Improving ob Bogey's D might not be that hard to do, but it may take 3-4 improvements from 1B, DH, 2B, LF, CF or RF to just break even with Bogey's offense, but again, the 2018-2021 Bogey offense and not the 2017 or to a lesser extend the 2022 Bogey O. It's not a simple formula, and bringing back and aging JD and Bogey that for some reason has seen his XBH and RBI totals tumble since 2019 may not have given us what we remember these two hitters giving us over the last 4 years. I'm not dissing these two, but had we spent most of our budget bringing bac kBogey, JD, Nate and others, how could we expect major improvement from 2022, either?

 

It's going to come down to how well Bloom's additions do in 2023, and not just this winter's newbies. This is Bloom's team.

 

C McGuire and Wong

1B Casas (is DD'd prospect, but Bloom did not trade him)

2B hopefully Story or Arroyo

SS hopefully Andrus or someone like M Rojas or Story

LF Yohida

CF Kike

RF Verdugo/ Refsnyder

DH Turner

 

SP Whitlock, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton (Wink & Seabold)

Pen Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Barnes (extension), Joely, Mills, Kelly, German, Ort

 

All that is left over from the 2018-2019 teams are Sale, Barnes, Brasier and Taylor. Again, this is Bloom's team with a few ifs ands or buts, but the 2023 results will be squarely on Bloom's shoulders, fully deserving or not.

[Bellhorn04]

The starting pitching will make or break us.

[moonslav59]

I think there’s a difference between excuses and a reason. There’s a reason for everything. Saying something like “The Red Sox misread the market” is fact. Perhaps it’s conjecture and not fact but it feels obvious to me. But! I do agree that if the people you hire are showing a track record of misreading the market, then start hiring people who can.

 

In terms of Raffy, I think it’s a hindsight reaction to say “well if they aren’t going to get a return for one year then we should have traded him longer ago”. Well, you’re only one step closer to, let’s trade everyone before they get to arbitration years. Even if a guy is determined to get to FA (and many are and may chose to never sign extensions) having 2-3 years of a premium player is worth it to an organization that is expected to compete year in and year out.

 

It’s like the old saying goes “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush”

 

The term "misreading" is a bit loaded with context, and in the case of Bogey could cover a wide range of situations and happenings that we may not have all the facts on to know for sure what was misread and by how much.

 

I'm pretty sure most GMs, fans and the media misread the explosion of contract prices for high end FAs. Counting Bloom in the large group makes total sense, but by itself, does not mean it was a "mistake" in the Bogey case, if they felt all along and still do, that Bogey was never worth paying what the FA market rates was at any point along the timeline or what they felt BorA$$ would accept. Maybe they didn't feel like he was worth $165M/6 at the time of the Story signings, and even if they did, do we know Bogey would have accepted it? We can plus in any numbers to make similar points along the timeline. Of course, one can easily say, "We should have locked him up way earlier for a much lower price than he got," and that looks like a great idea and a major mistake by Bloom, but only if two things happened/happen:

1. Bogey agreed to it. (This could go back to the DD extension agreed to, as well, and why didn't he pay more to erase the opt out clause?)

2. Bogey earns it, afterwards.

 

If one looks at it like, "Bloom should have seen $280M/11 was coming and got Bogey to sign for $250M/10 a couple weeks earlier or $200M/7 last March, I'm not so sure it was a mistake not doing that. Only time will tell.

 

It seems Ole Red's "misreading the room" includes the idea that Bloom convinced JH & Co that Bogey was not worth offering anything they felt he'd accept and/or that they could still get him once he reached free agency, because he misread the market and what anyone would offer him.

 

Ultimately, to me, the biggest "mistake" was getting a lousy comp pick for Bogey. Whether Bloom begged to trade him and wasn't allowed to, or he recommended we extend him and wasn't allowed to, it's on him. I realize those are two big ifs and neither seem likely, so it does appear Bloom deserves some or much of the blame for the return we got on Bogey.

 

Bogey's production from here on out will ultimately determine how bad, or perhaps good, it was letting him go. The return will always be a mistake that may or may not have involved "misreading the room" to any or to a varying extent.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So you think the Sox should prioritize maximizing trade value over playing baseball?

 

The Sox made a lot of noise in 2021 and probably expected to do so again in 2022. One bad season is not a reason to rewrite history and retroactively dump everyone…

 

If you're asking if I'd rather trade Devers before the season than at the deadline, my answer is yes.

 

Don't go the prom with me, just so you can dress up and look good for all the scholar-athletes. If we're breaking up, let's get it over with now, so we can all get a fresh start.

[moonslav59]

The starting pitching will make or break us.

 

Agreed. Our offense should be about as good as 2022- maybe better.

Our defense should be as good, despite a drop in RF and maybe LF.

Our pen should be better, despite losing Whitlock to the rotation.

 

It's going to come down to the rotation.

 

We have 6 SP'er with nearly all of them being question marks.

 

Pivetta is the one that is not, but the unknown is whether we need him to be our solid #5 SP'er of our #3. If it's #3 or maybe even #4, we are in trouble.

 

Whitlock and Bello look super promising, and we haven't had a young SP'er duo like this in a long time. Uncertainty about their 2023 production and IP levels abound, but at least I feel good about these two. The next 3, not so much.

 

Sale is and has been a big question mark for many years, and the answer to the question has not been good for several years in a row.

 

Paxton is Sale B.

 

Kluber looks somewhat promising, but with his age, injury history and being a reinvented pitcher, there is always doubts.

 

One promising thing about our rotation, to me, is the depth beyond 1-6. I know much of my hopes are purely conjecture, but I'd rather have hopes than what I've had the last 4 years in this area. (Remember, even in 2018, we needed to trade for Nate due to a lack of SP depth in the system.) Mata really excites me. Walter has hope, too. I think Murphy may be better suited for the pen, but he may shine as a fill-in SP'er, if needed. I've still not given up on Crawford, Wink and Seabold, but admittedly, my hopes have lowered from previous years. My hope, now, is one will find a key role in 2023, and do well at it. I don't think that hope is a long shot, but I worry about needing to cycle through 2 poor performances before the third one does okay. It might be too late by then.

 

I'd like to see us add another solid SP'er, but I doubt that happens. Maybe adding a Fulmer-type RP'er would allow Houck a chance to start, if needed, but we need to stop jerking him and Whitlock around.

 

At this point, I'm just hoping we find a defensive SS who is not an embarrassment at the plate and maybe a real RF'er, even if it means trading Dugo. There is budget room and trade possibilities for both, and doing both might take some stress of the rotation in 2023. Improved D at SS and RF would help the whole staff.