2023 Free Agents

[mvp 78]

I thought I read somewhere, the Dodgers said they will not cut payroll to get under the line.

 

They are slightly over due to the Rojas trade and signing, but can still get under if they trade someone. Being over for 3 straight years comes with additional penalties and Friedman has frequently called being over the CBT "not sustainable" because of the impact on player development.

[Bellhorn04]

wRC+ the 4 years prior to 2022 for Elvis Andrus:

74

57

76

76

 

DRS the past 4 seasons:

-4

-10

-3

-9

 

Maybe the Red Sox just don't think Elvis Andrus is that good?

 

Good points. We did hear they were interested in him. Sure seems like it wasn't the price tag that disinterested them.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe they do.

 

Arroyo could certainly be better than Andrus, but his history has a lot of risks. I’m surprised they didn’t try harder for Andrus, who certainly wasn’t looking for big money or long years. At least not at this point…

 

I'm surprised too.

 

One thing is abundantly clear - Bloom really likes Arroyo.

[Bellhorn04]

Had Bogey not opted out, they did spend $300M+ on Sale and Bogey ($400+ with Nate.)

 

That's right. And at their 2018 season-ending press conference they told everyone they wouldn't be able to keep all of Betts, Bogey and Sale.

[notin]

I'm surprised too.

 

One thing is abundantly clear - Bloom really likes Arroyo.

 

I actually think Cora is pretty fond of him as well. Arroyo’s issue isn’t talent…

[Bellhorn04]

They had to reset the luxury tax! Don't want to hurt Henry's checkbook! When you let QO guys go, you don't want to be over the luxury tax because then your picks drop 2 rounds! Can't let that happen, silly!

 

There are some fairly nasty penalties, though, and the nastiest ones impact your draft picks and signing bonuses and IFA pool money.

[notin]

wRC+ the 4 years prior to 2022 for Elvis Andrus:

74

57

76

76

 

DRS the past 4 seasons:

-4

-10

-3

-9

 

Maybe the Red Sox just don't think Elvis Andrus is that good?

 

Very possible. Most of Bloom’s acquisitions do seem to fare pretty well with Defensive Runs Saved…

[mvp 78]

Good points. We did hear they were interested in him. Sure seems like it wasn't the price tag that disinterested them.

 

Maybe Elvis' price tag was still higher before the Sox signed Chang and traded for Mondesi? IDK. I heard Elvis was still looking for multiple years a few weeks ago. That ship apparently sailed at some point, but maybe because the Sox closed their doors to him.

[mvp 78]

I'm surprised too.

 

One thing is abundantly clear - Bloom really likes Arroyo.

 

IF he stayed healthy!

[Bellhorn04]

I actually think Cora is pretty fond of him as well. Arroyo’s issue isn’t talent…

 

Kind of the middle infield version of Eovaldi...

[mvp 78]

That's right. And at their 2018 season-ending press conference they told everyone they wouldn't be able to keep all of Betts, Bogey and Sale.

 

They chose... POORLY!

[mvp 78]

There are some fairly nasty penalties, though, and the nastiest ones impact your draft picks and signing bonuses and IFA pool money.

 

I believe they could have signed Betts and gotten under the cap at some point. The problem goes back to the other signings post-2018 that we have discussed over and over and over again.

[Bellhorn04]

They chose... POORLY!

 

Some day we'll get the real story on those Mookie negotiations...

[Bellhorn04]

I believe they could have signed Betts and gotten under the cap at some point. The problem goes back to the other signings post-2018 that we have discussed over and over and over again.

 

Yeah, they screwed up, I don't disagree.

[moonslav59]

I believe they could have signed Betts and gotten under the cap at some point. The problem goes back to the other signings post-2018 that we have discussed over and over and over again.

 

Just Betts, instead of Sale could have made this happen, but it would have been difficult without the half-Price dumping, too.

 

Also, imagine trying to reach the low budget number of 2020 with Betts and Price on the roster. Even if we could have found a buyer on half-Price with maybe a prospect thrown in, how do we meet the $185M lux tax line in 2020?

 

No Nate. No Sale. No half Price. Is that enough?

 

It's easy to pick and choose who we would not have signed for 2021 to stay under the tax line, but even all the meh signings don't equal Mookie's numbers.

 

It would have been tight as hell, and we'd have very few quality players to put around Betts, assuming the budgets stayed equal from 2020-2022.

[moonslav59]

Some day we'll get the real story on those Mookie negotiations...

 

At least the reported offer was not a slap in the face- like Lester & to some extent, Bogey.

[mvp 78]

Just Betts, instead of Sale could have made this happen, but it would have been difficult without the half-Price dumping, too.

 

Also, imagine trying to reach the low budget number of 2020 with Betts and Price on the roster. Even if we could have found a buyer on half-Price with maybe a prospect thrown in, how do we meet the $185M lux tax line in 2020?

 

No Nate. No Sale. No half Price. Is that enough?

 

It's easy to pick and choose who we would not have signed for 2021 to stay under the tax line, but even all the meh signings don't equal Mookie's numbers.

 

It would have been tight as hell, and we'd have very few quality players to put around Betts, assuming the budgets stayed equal from 2020-2022.

 

The CBT threshold in 2020 was $208.

[moonslav59]

The CBT threshold in 2020 was $208.

 

Yes, but JH chose not to get to $207M. I guess he might not have minded going there, by keeping Betts, but I think he chose to save more money, that year.

 

He could have also traded Betts, alone, gotten more for him and afforded the extra $16M for Price and still stayed under. It seems to me, it was not just about not going over the line in 2020. I think we could assume the same budgets we had, each year to play the mix and match game of keeping Betts over others. Just my opinion.

[mvp 78]

Yes, but JH chose not to get to $207M. I guess he might not have minded going there, by keeping Betts, but I think he chose to save more money, that year.

 

He could have also traded Betts, alone, gotten more for him and afforded the extra $16M for Price and still stayed under. It seems to me, it was not just about not going over the line in 2020. I think we could assume the same budgets we had, each year to play the mix and match game of keeping Betts over others. Just my opinion.

 

If you are serious about competing, why not spend up to the line every year? Why be so far under it? Just sign 1 year deals!

[Bellhorn04]

At least the reported offer was not a slap in the face- like Lester & to some extent, Bogey.

 

True, but how that went down was still pretty strange.

 

Contrast it to the negotiations with Devers. The whole gang went and visited him at his home in the Dominican, and made an offer they virtually knew would get it done.

[moonslav59]

If you are serious about competing, why not spend up to the line every year? Why be so far under it? Just sign 1 year deals!

 

Take that up with Henry. I question that strategy, too.

 

I think 2020 was a write off, but had we kept Betts, Bogey and Sale, despite them saying they would not, maybe they'd have treated 2020 differently.

 

I still think'd need to find another way to dump at least half-Price and maybe not extend Sale, Bogey or Nate.

[moonslav59]

True, but how that went down was still pretty strange.

 

Contrast it to the negotiations with Devers. The whole gang went and visited him at his home in the Dominican, and made an offer they virtually knew would get it done.

 

I think they felt the offer made to Betts was more than adequate, and he was determined to reach free agency. I never got that sense from Devers wanting to get to the open market. Maybe that's a slight difference, but meaningful enough to make the difference in approach.

 

I also think that losing Betts then Bogey created a whole new dynamic in the public relations area that made how they handled Devers a seed change.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's right. And at their 2018 season-ending press conference they told everyone they wouldn't be able to keep all of Betts, Bogey and Sale.

 

Geez, but remember, Kennedy said, "there's a way we can keep both Mookie and JD."

 

I believe everything Sam says.

 

And keeping good players -- like your ace pitcher, and your homegrown star shortstop and rightfielder -- is part of retaining a sustained contender.

[Bellhorn04]

Geez, but remember, Kennedy said, "there's a way we can keep both Mookie and JD."

 

I believe everything Sam says.

 

And keeping good players -- like your ace pitcher, and your homegrown star shortstop and rightfielder -- is part of retaining a sustained contender.

 

The problem, of course, is that the cost of keeping those players has skyrocketed over the years to the point that you have to take on a staggering amount of risk.

 

As much as we lament losing Mookie, his contract has 10 more years to run, and it's still way too early to say if it's going to be a good contract or not.

[Nick]

I guess the real question is would you rather have Betts at $29M or Story at $23M per year for 6 of Betts' contract years. Look to cut $6M elsewhere.

 

No brainer to me.

 

I see that we are still under the cap by $22M. Trading away Alex Verdugo would take care of having Betts' contract.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Geez, but remember, Kennedy said, "there's a way we can keep both Mookie and JD."

 

I believe everything Sam says.

 

And keeping good players -- like your ace pitcher, and your homegrown star shortstop and rightfielder -- is part of retaining a sustained contender.

 

Sam is the used carsalesman of the bunch. He's the corporate doublespeak guy. I don't care for him at all.

[mvp 78]

The problem, of course, is that the cost of keeping those players has skyrocketed over the years to the point that you have to take on a staggering amount of risk.

 

As much as we lament losing Mookie, his contract has 10 more years to run, and it's still way too early to say if it's going to be a good contract or not.

 

2020: 2.8 fWAR partial season

2021: 3.8 fWAR injured and considered his "down year" with a 130 wRC+, 854 OPS

2022: 6.6 fWAR ho hum

 

According to FanGraphs, he's already been worth over 100M to the Dodgers in just 2.5 years.

[Bellhorn04]

2020: 2.8 fWAR partial season

2021: 3.8 fWAR injured and considered his "down year" with a 130 wRC+, 854 OPS

2022: 6.6 fWAR ho hum

 

According to FanGraphs, he's already been worth over 100M to the Dodgers in just 2.5 years.

 

Oh I know. He's also 30.5 years old now.

 

I would bet it turns out to be a good contract, but I wouldn't bet much.

[mvp 78]

Oh I know. He's also 30.5 years old now.

 

I would bet it turns out to be a good contract, but I wouldn't bet much.

 

The last time a half year in age mattered was when I was able to sit for my license. At age 30?

 

Yes, last season was his age 29 season. This year is his age 30 season. Are you expecting him to fall off a cliff? He has almost another decade to amass 25 fWAR and make his contract work out. He could do that by age 36. They'll be "eating" his deal at the end of it, but they are making money off of him right now. It's no different than what the Padres are doing 3 hours south of them.

[Bellhorn04]

The last time a half year in age mattered was when I was able to sit for my license. At age 30?

 

Yes, last season was his age 29 season. This year is his age 30 season. Are you expecting him to fall off a cliff?

 

I'm not expecting that, no, but stuff happens. Injuries are the really scary thing. The risk can't be ignored like it doesn't exist.