2023 Free Agents

[moonslav59]

Not much left for catching options.

 

There was talk we wanted to "add a catcher," but no word on him being a starter, back-up or organizational depth beyond Kaleb Hamilton.

 

Alex Scherff!!

 

What are everyone’s thoughts on signing Rodon to 200/6?

 

Otherwise the best option is between Eovaldi/Kluber. Who will be much cheaper

 

Kluber and or a trade.

 

Rodon is the next Sale.

[Hugh2]

I don't know what it would take to sign Swanson. He is not on the same level as the other shortstops that have signed elsewhere, but he could do some damage at Fenway. I don't know if his being the last of the " big 4 " would raise or lower the amount it would take. Probably not going to happen anyway.

 

I would have called myself crazy a month ago but I can see him getting 225/9 225/10 now

[a700hitter]

Thor is going to LA. Another pitcher is off the board.

[Bellhorn04]

Thor is going to LA. Another pitcher is off the board.

 

Thank God, huh? Wouldn't want them to give into temptation and sign somebody.

[Bellhorn04]

Rodon is the next Sale.

 

We've got enough sour grapes to make a case of Joey Gallo wine.

 

(Looks like 5 Gloves's insane punning is starting to rub off on me.)

[moonslav59]

Thank God, huh? Wouldn't want them to give into temptation and sign somebody.

 

$13M/1. Compared to other contracts, recently, it's not bad, but we don't need another wing and prayer pitcher.

[notin]

$13M/1. Compared to other contracts, recently, it's not bad, but we don't need another wing and prayer pitcher.

 

It’s one thing to gamble that Rodon will give you 7 years. Syndergaard is about as risky as Kike on this deal…

[notin]

I would have called myself crazy a month ago but I can see him getting 225/9 225/10 now

 

If Story cannot play shortstop because of his arm strength, Swanson’s healthy arm strength is the same as Story’s post-elbow inflammation arm strength. Story was down to 79.1mph after getting hurt; Swanson was at 79.2mph last year.

 

Just imagine what it will be if Swanson has elbow issues…

[dgalehouse]

Thor is going to LA. Another pitcher is off the board.

 

About time the Dodgers joined the party. They have been very quiet.

[moonslav59]

 

About time the Dodgers joined the party. They have been very quiet.

 

The Sox aren't the only big spending team that periodically resets.

[moonslav59]

If Story cannot play shortstop because of his arm strength, Swanson’s healthy arm strength is the same as Story’s post-elbow inflammation arm strength. Story was down to 79.1mph after getting hurt; Swanson was at 79.2mph last year.

 

Just imagine what it will be if Swanson has elbow issues…

 

Anthony Franco suggested Segura as the best fit for Boston with Story playing SS.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox are doing the rebuild 101 off-season plan. They’ll swoop in now and buy low on short term deals for guys they can spin off at the deadline. Even the Jansen signing is one that could be spun off at the deadline. You guys do realize the Sox are trending to be horrible next year, right?

[dgalehouse]

$13M/1. Compared to other contracts, recently, it's not bad, but we don't need another wing and prayer pitcher.

 

Aren't most of them wing and a prayer ?

[notin]

Anthony Franco suggested Segura as the best fit for Boston with Story playing SS.

 

I could see it but I’m not wild about it.

 

Best at this point:

 

2b: Story

SS: E Hernandez

CF: Laureano

RF: Gallo

 

But for pitching? Maybe sign Fulmer and move Houck back to the rotation like they clearly want to…

[moonslav59]

I could see it but I’m not wild about it.

 

Best at this point:

 

2b: Story

SS: E Hernandez

CF: Laureano

RF: Gallo

 

But for pitching? Maybe sign Fulmer and move Houck back to the rotation like they clearly want to…

 

Just get Andrus and not force two players off their better positions, just se Segura finds a home.

[Hugh2]

This of long-term contracts makes one ponder.

 

Are these teams banking on the luxury tax line being much higher at the end term of these contracts? in ten years from now the lowest threshold may be $300 million.

 

I keep thinking about the whole structure of the CBA in general; the luxury tax limits, the extra loss of draft picks and reduced value of picks gained from exceeding such thresholds, revenue sharing, loss of international spending money, and the competitive balance compensation draft picks. All of these structures have been put in place to keep big market teams such as LA and NY from being able to dominate the game.

 

If these teams decide to just blow past these thresholds and that leads to lopsided success then I have to believe harsher penalties are coming in the future. Harsher penalties? or perhaps even a hard cap like the NFL. That may be the fairest and most interesting.

 

However the next CBA isn't up for 5 years. There was plenty of talent in this market that could have had for 5 years or less. The whole middle starting pitcher market (with upside) signed for 5 years or less and to date the Sox have not added one starter.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

However the next CBA isn't up for 5 years. There was plenty of talent in this market that could have had for 5 years or less. The whole middle starting pitcher market (with upside) signed for 5 years or less and to date the Sox have not added one starter.

 

Correct, and they lost their three best from last year's cellar dwellers. Is it coincidence that Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill are among the last remaining decent unsigned starters?

 

The Sox have a ton of money coming off the books and are intent on adding 4 or 5 more guys to make them a lot better next year...

[mvp 78]

This of long-term contracts makes one ponder.

 

Are these teams banking on the luxury tax line being much higher at the end term of these contracts? in ten years from now the lowest threshold may be $300 million.

 

I keep thinking about the whole structure of the CBA in general; the luxury tax limits, the extra loss of draft picks and reduced value of picks gained from exceeding such thresholds, revenue sharing, loss of international spending money, and the competitive balance compensation draft picks. All of these structures have been put in place to keep big market teams such as LA and NY from being able to dominate the game.

 

If these teams decide to just blow past these thresholds and that leads to lopsided success then I have to believe harsher penalties are coming in the future. Harsher penalties? or perhaps even a hard cap like the NFL. That may be the fairest and most interesting.

 

However the next CBA isn't up for 5 years. There was plenty of talent in this market that could have had for 5 years or less. The whole middle starting pitcher market (with upside) signed for 5 years or less and to date the Sox have not added one starter.

 

They are doing a few things:

1. Reducing the AAV by stretching the contracts out to a ridiculous length that teams know the players won't be productive during. This helps reduce the luxury tax in the near future.

2. Spending now and worrying about next year's needs at a later point. Basically what I do after Christmas when I take all the lights down and don't put them away neatly. It's a problem for future MVP, not today MVP. Future MVP really hates today MVP.

3. The GM's in charge realize that they will most likely not have to worry about their team in 10 years as they will be elsewhere.

4. Just sign the guys you want and horde the best assets. Once you have those assets, you can deal them off at a later date.

[mvp 78]

Correct, and they lost their three best from last year's cellar dwellers. Is it coincidence that Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill are among the last remaining decent unsigned starters?

 

The Sox have a ton of money coming off the books and are intent on adding 4 or 5 more guys to make them a lot better next year...

 

The team was 22nd in pitching fWAR. If Bello had the same amount of innings as Eovaldi, he would have had the highest fWAR for BOS pitchers. Whitlock had higher fWAR than Eovaldi and is going to be given a larger role this year. If Sale can pitch twice the amount of innings he did in 2021 and provide the same production, his fWAR will be exceed Wacha's.

[moonslav59]

This of long-term contracts makes one ponder.

 

Are these teams banking on the luxury tax line being much higher at the end term of these contracts? in ten years from now the lowest threshold may be $300 million.

 

I keep thinking about the whole structure of the CBA in general; the luxury tax limits, the extra loss of draft picks and reduced value of picks gained from exceeding such thresholds, revenue sharing, loss of international spending money, and the competitive balance compensation draft picks. All of these structures have been put in place to keep big market teams such as LA and NY from being able to dominate the game.

 

If these teams decide to just blow past these thresholds and that leads to lopsided success then I have to believe harsher penalties are coming in the future. Harsher penalties? or perhaps even a hard cap like the NFL. That may be the fairest and most interesting.

 

However the next CBA isn't up for 5 years. There was plenty of talent in this market that could have had for 5 years or less. The whole middle starting pitcher market (with upside) signed for 5 years or less and to date the Sox have not added one starter.

 

Great points.

 

My guess is, if some sort of hard cap is coming in 5 years, some sort of grandfather clause will be part of the deal, or there will be some way to exempt current players' big raises from fully counting vs the cap.

 

To me, and I said this during the last talks, the top players keep getting major advances and it doesn't really trickle down as many hoped it would- sound familiar?

 

The union needs to push hard for a floor level on team budgets that rises significantly and a major raise on min wage and arb levels. If they force the lower and mid level players to get substantial raises while increasing penalties for going over. This will almost surely force top salaries to not go up so much or even come down.

 

The non spending teams will be forced to bring up their budgets by signing lower to mid range players, and there will actually be stronger competition for second and third tier free agents.

[mvp 78]

Why would the union ever allow a hard cap? Even the luxury tax artificially deflates salaries.

[moonslav59]

They are doing a few things:

1. Reducing the AAV by stretching the contracts out to a ridiculous length that teams know the players won't be productive during. This helps reduce the luxury tax in the near future.

2. Spending now and worrying about next year's needs at a later point. Basically what I do after Christmas when I take all the lights down and don't put them away neatly. It's a problem for future MVP, not today MVP. Future MVP really hates today MVP.

3. The GM's in charge realize that they will most likely not have to worry about their team in 10 years as they will be elsewhere.

4. Just sign the guys you want and horde the best assets. Once you have those assets, you can deal them off at a later date.

 

Very well put.

 

It seems Bloom and the new Sox philosophy is not on this page, except for maybe hording prospect assets.

 

Going back to DD's time, starting with right after the trades at the 2018 deadline, we've traded away almost no prospects and no top ones, at all. August 2018 to now is going on 4.5 years!

 

Then, look at all the trades we made to acquire prospects, despite hardly any looking all that great, right now. It's obvious what we are hording.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They are doing a few things:

1. Reducing the AAV by stretching the contracts out to a ridiculous length that teams know the players won't be productive during. This helps reduce the luxury tax in the near future.

2. Spending now and worrying about next year's needs at a later point. Basically what I do after Christmas when I take all the lights down and don't put them away neatly. It's a problem for future MVP, not today MVP. Future MVP really hates today MVP.

3. The GM's in charge realize that they will most likely not have to worry about their team in 10 years as they will be elsewhere.

4. Just sign the guys you want and horde the best assets. Once you have those assets, you can deal them off at a later date.

 

All good points, but the most chilling is #3... what if our guy in charge won't make risky moves because he knows he'll still be here?

[mvp 78]

All good points, but the most chilling is #3... what if our guy in charge won't make risky moves because he knows he'll still be here?

 

If Bloom had a press conference where he came out and said "look, I'm just trying to be careful to not sign Hanley and Pablo 2.0" I think he'd win a few people over.

[Hugh2]

Great points.

 

My guess is, if some sort of hard cap is coming in 5 years, some sort of grandfather clause will be part of the deal, or there will be some way to exempt current players' big raises from fully counting vs the cap.

 

To me, and I said this during the last talks, the top players keep getting major advances and it doesn't really trickle down as many hoped it would- sound familiar?

 

The union needs to push hard for a floor level on team budgets that rises significantly and a major raise on min wage and arb levels. If they force the lower and mid level players to get substantial raises while increasing penalties for going over. This will almost surely force top salaries to not go up so much or even come down.

 

The non spending teams will be forced to bring up their budgets by signing lower to mid range players, and there will actually be stronger competition for second and third tier free agents.

 

That type of change would be interesting. As we know with big changes always comes resistance, some people would hate it and others would love it.

 

Personally, I think baseball needs more of a HARD cap, perhaps a salary floor needs to be implemented too. A team that receives revenue sharing should not be allowed to go as low as Tampa for example.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Bloom had a press conference where he came out and said "look, I'm just trying to be careful to not sign Hanley and Pablo 2.0" I think he'd win a few people over.

 

We get it, we can handle it, but as far the Nation, he's screwed no matter what:

 

... when he has to trade Raffy, the average fan will never accept the reasons a billionaire owner won't pay their homegrown superstar favorites market rates to stay in Boston.

 

... but even if he signs Devers, the team is most likely going to blow, unless Sale and Paxton find a time machine and turn back into their 2017-18 selves.

[moonslav59]

The team was 22nd in pitching fWAR. If Bello had the same amount of innings as Eovaldi, he would have had the highest fWAR for BOS pitchers. Whitlock had higher fWAR than Eovaldi and is going to be given a larger role this year. If Sale can pitch twice the amount of innings he did in 2021 and provide the same production, his fWAR will be exceed Wacha's.

 

Lots of ifs, but 2 of the 3 probably will happen.

 

A stronger pen should boost the overall pitching fWAR.

 

Much of our poor numbers had to do with our bottom 8-20 pitchers, and the "too high" amount of IP they got in 2022, partially due to injuries, but also because our #9-13 pitchers were not all that good to start with.

 

We should see some addition by subtraction and not just from pitchers no longer here, but by seeing less of way less IP from some of our bad ones. I know I say that every year, but I have more confidence in the pitchers we have added to the pen and some of the incoming younger players and prospects than I have in a long time.

 

The biggest drag on the 2022 staff... (Should/could see less IP or no IP in 2023)

 

Listed by IP Ranking with (IP/fWAR) and bWAR- not how many IP our #13-19 pitchers by IP had.)

 

6. Crawford? (77/0.5) 0.2 bWAR

7. Winckowski (70/0.0) -0.3

9. Brasier (62/0.5) -0.8

12. Austin (54/0.3) -0.4

13. Sawamura (51/0.0) 0.7

15. Danish (40/-0.4) -0.1

17. Diekman (38/-0.5) 0.3

18. Ort (28/-0.1) -0.4

19. Robles (25/-0.7) -0.8

20. Seabold (18/-0.2) -1.0

21. Valdez (16/0.0) -0.1

22. Bazardo (16/-0.2) 0.3

24. Familia (10/-0.1) -0.1

25. DHern (7/-0.5) -0.9

Others (11/-0.3) 0.0

 

In all fairness, we also lost:

2. Wacha (127/1.5) 3.3 bWAR

3. R Hill (124/1.8) 0.9

4. Nate (109/1.0) 1.5

14. Strahm (45/0.3) 0.3

 

 

[moonslav59]

That type of change would be interesting. As we know with big changes always comes resistance, some people would hate it and others would love it.

 

Personally, I think baseball needs more of a HARD cap, perhaps a salary floor needs to be implemented too. A team that receives revenue sharing should not be allowed to go as low as Tampa for example.

 

IMO, the vast majority of players would see a significant raise while maybe the overall hit on owners would be minimal, except to cheap teams forced to spend more. That could be rectified with more revenue sharing to poorer teams.

 

It could be a win-win to everyone but the top 4-5% of players, in theory.

[Bellhorn04]

Why would the union ever allow a hard cap? Even the luxury tax artificially deflates salaries.

 

It also generates a pile of extra revenue.

[Hugh2]

It also generates a pile of extra revenue.

 

They could also do some sort of revenue sharing with players.