2023 Free Agents

[Old Red]

But then there was their ludicrous offer before the season.

 

I just can't give them the benefit of the doubt anymore.

 

Actions speak louder than words, and that ridiculous offer last offseason spoke loud, and clear. Their words were hollow.

[a700hitter]

These brainiacs get paid to judge the market correctly. To swing and miss by a mile is incompetence.

[Old Red]

These brainiacs get paid to judge the market correctly. To swing and miss by a mile is incompetence.

 

If this was done with analytics how did that work out?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think he was, I think the Sox legitimately wanted to work a deal out. They misjudged his market, or the market, and had no ambition to match $280 million.

 

The fact that they didn’t resign him doesn’t mean he isn’t or wasn’t a priority. It just means they failed.

 

Then here's the really scary part: if the Red Sox were sincere, someone in charge actually thought it was a good idea to offer Boras a one-year extension last spring that, when combined with the three years remaining on Xander's previous contract, equated to less AAV than what they just gave to newcomer Trevor Story.

 

If the Red Sox were sincere about keeping Bogaerts, that stunt was abjectly incompetent. Don't you wish they were just lying and intentionally trying to piss off his camp to make it easier for him to agree to a midseason trade (which they also blew)?

[Old Red]

Then here's the really scary part: if the Red Sox were sincere, someone in charge actually thought it was a good idea to offer Boras a one-year extension last spring that, when combined with the three years remaining on Xander's previous contract, equated to less AAV than what they just gave to newcomer Trevor Story.

 

If the Red Sox were sincere about keeping Bogaerts, that stunt was abjectly incompetent. Don't you wish they were just lying and intentionally trying to piss off his camp to make it easier for him to agree to a midseason trade (which they also blew)?

 

I think this is the more likely scenario, and just Bloom being in way over his head. Like I’ve said many times before that doesn’t really qualify as a offer as ridiculous as it was, and certainly didn’t warrant any counter offer. Dumb, and dumber, which led to a bummer.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I think Henry is clearly the guy who's most responsible for the departures of Betts and Bogey. He's decided that handing out contracts of that size is not the way to go, and now he's digging in deep on that belief.

 

I read an interview with Dombrowski, and he made it sound like the way he was let go was extremely cold. Henry never said a word to him at the time or since then. Dombrowski didn't say much about it, he said he'd rather not talk about it.

 

But we're seeing a pretty long pattern of Henry being a prick, starting really with the exits of Epstein and Francona.

[Old Red]

Personally I think Henry is clearly the guy who's most responsible for the departures of Betts and Bogey. He's decided that handing out contracts of that size is not the way to go, and now he's digging in deep on that belief.

 

I read an interview with Dombrowski, and he made it sound like the way he was let go was extremely cold. Henry never said a word to him at the time or since then. Dombrowski didn't say much about it, he said he'd rather not talk about it.

 

But we're seeing a pretty long pattern of Henry being a prick, starting really with the exits of Epstein and Francona.

Agree with most except I think Bloom not reading the market correctly had more to do with Bogey leaving. I believe JH gets his info from Bloom, but it wouldn’t surprise me either that Henry didn’t want to pay even $150M to retain Bogey.

[Hugh2]

I’m not for the emotional reactionary responses most seem to succumb too. Perhaps it’s the business man in me that’s operated a successful business and grown it 7 fold in 20 years in me. Emotions lead to mistakes, I suppose that doesn’t matter rooting for a team but it’s ingrained in me.

 

It’s irrefutable this management messed up somewhere, but the narrative spewed about it is illogical, emotional, and doesn’t make sense. It just sounds like angry people to me

 

Hear me out.

 

Let’s ask ourselves one question. Of the free agent signings the Sox have made this year how many did we hear about until it happened? You guessed it, none. Love him or hate him, it’s indisputable that the Bloom regime doesn’t leak a thing, all the information we have is coming from the Boras side. This is obvious. Excuse me for not abiding my opinions purely shaped by the drivel of Boras. The low ball offer reported in spring training came from the Boras camp. I’d like to see what the Sox final offer was. Have any of y’all mad about that ever not punched a clock for a living? Let me tell you how it’s done.

 

Boras asks for 300/10 the Sox ask for 90/10

 

Both seem absurd to the other side. The Sox know damn well they need to offer more, and Boras knows damn well he has to come down from his price. It’s a dance, it’s a negotiation, no one is getting “insulted” if you think a starting offer is insulting you don’t know business. STOP. Do not pass go, do not collect $200, leave the conversation now. At the very least don’t ever go into business….you will fail.

 

That narrative obviously came from camp Boras. It is logical, leak to the media the low ball opening offer (that both sides know damn well is just a starting talking point). You leak it to the media because you know the narrative will be “look how incompetent management is with their insulting offer” so Boras can come back and say “see how ridiculous this offer is, now move first and tell me how much better you can do”

 

That’s business, that’s negotiability, no one is getting insulted, so let’s just stop with that. It’s not a real thing. In the name of intellectual debate just please drop that archaic stupid argument.

 

It’s been put out there that Bogaerts would have taken the Story contract in spring training. If this is true then it’s obvious the Sox drastically under estimated Bogaerts market and royally f***ed this up. I mean, they definitely messed it up, but to what degree is yet to be determined….unless of course you’re a boras stooge.

 

But hey! Here’s a nice consolation prize for you. By regurgitating Boras talking points you’re indirectly contributing to the proliferation of baseball player salary inflation. As a matter of fact one could say you may be ever so slightly responsible for Betts, and Bogaerts being gone….so give yourself a pat on the back and thank you very much. Ok the last paragraph may be a bit of a stretch. But everything else is spot on. The crying of “they insulted him with their offer” narrative really really really really needs to die.

Edited December 13, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

If I remember correctly many in here called me crazy for suggesting Bogaerts gets $217 million. Now it seems that even I under estimated his value.

[Bellhorn04]

Agree with most except I think Bloom not reading the market correctly had more to do with Bogey leaving. I believe JH gets his info from Bloom, but it wouldn’t surprise me either that Henry didn’t want to pay even $150M to retain Bogey.

 

But Henry's fingerprints are all over the pre-season offer. He already did it once, with Lester, so there's a strong precedent.

 

I don't think Bogey was ever in the plans for 2023 and beyond.

[Bellhorn04]

If I remember correctly many in here called me crazy for suggesting Bogaerts gets $217 million. Now it seems that even I under estimated his value.

 

Well, it illustrates that "market value" in baseball is sometimes just a phrase. $280 million was absurd.

[Hugh2]

These brainiacs get paid to judge the market correctly. To swing and miss by a mile is incompetence.

 

This can not be stressed enough.

 

It’s also worth noting Bloom didn’t really bring over any of his guys. The guys he’s signing and the prospects he’s trading for are being done by him through the information of the Red Sox scouting and evaluators.

 

If the Sox decide to move on from Bloom and hire a new GM, they need a lot more than just that. They need to invest more money into pro and amateur scouting.

[moonslav59]

But Bloom said Bogey was the #1 priority, so it wasn't all media lies.

 

True, but you know it is not really a lie, if he was their number one priority but got outbid. He probably got the highest offer of anyone, this winter, from the Sox.

 

I still think the last media reports is what got everyone all jacked up and then the letdown was more severe.

[moonslav59]

I think this is the more likely scenario, and just Bloom being in way over his head. Like I’ve said many times before that doesn’t really qualify as a offer as ridiculous as it was, and certainly didn’t warrant any counter offer. Dumb, and dumber, which led to a bummer.

 

You really think that first offer was all Bloom?

[Old Red]

But Henry's fingerprints are all over the pre-season offer. He already did it once, with Lester, so there's a strong precedent.

 

I don't think Bogey was ever in the plans for 2023 and beyond.

I get all this, but what purpose does it serve to come out with that ridiculous lowball offer that I believe happened 100%, and that narrative will continue to play no matter if other believes it, or not. What do the Red Sox gain by doing that?

[Bobe2]

This can not be stressed enough.

 

It’s also worth noting Bloom didn’t really bring over any of his guys. The guys he’s signing and the prospects he’s trading for are being done by him through the information of the Red Sox scouting and evaluators.

 

If the Sox decide to move on from Bloom and hire a new GM, they need a lot more than just that. They need to invest more money into pro and amateur scouting.

 

Are you saying the only reason Bloom was successful in Tampa was because of his guys?

[moonslav59]

I’m not for the emotional reactionary responses most seem to succumb too. Perhaps it’s the business man in me that’s operated a successful business and grown it 7 fold in 20 years in me. Emotions lead to mistakes, I suppose that doesn’t matter rooting for a team but it’s ingrained in me.

 

It’s irrefutable this management messed up somewhere, but the narrative spewed about it is illogical, emotional, and doesn’t make sense. It just sounds like angry people to me

 

Hear me out.

 

Let’s ask ourselves one question. Of the free agent signings the Sox have made this year how many did we hear about until it happened? You guessed it, none. Love him or hate him, it’s indisputable that the Bloom regime doesn’t leak a thing, all the information we have is coming from the Boras side. This is obvious. Excuse me for not abiding my opinions purely shaped by the drivel of Boras. The low ball offer reported in spring training came from the Boras camp. I’d like to see what the Sox final offer was. Have any of y’all mad about that ever not punched a clock for a living? Let me tell you how it’s done.

 

Boras asks for 300/10 the Sox ask for 90/10

 

Both seem absurd to the other side. The Sox know damn well they need to offer more, and Boras knows damn well he has to come down from his price. It’s a dance, it’s a negotiation, no one is getting “insulted” if you think a starting offer is insulting you don’t know business. STOP. Do not pass go, do not collect $200, leave the conversation now. At the very least don’t ever go into business….you will fail.

 

That narrative obviously came from camp Boras. It is logical, leak to the media the low ball opening offer (that both sides know damn well is just a starting talking point). You leak it to the media because you know the narrative will be “look how incompetent management is with their insulting offer” so Boras can come back and say “see how ridiculous this offer is, now move first and tell me how much better you can do”

 

That’s business, that’s negotiability, no one is getting insulted, so let’s just stop with that. It’s not a real thing. In the name of intellectual debate just please drop that archaic stupid argument.

 

It’s been put out there that Bogaerts would have taken the Story contract in spring training. If this is true then it’s obvious the Sox drastically under estimated Bogaerts market and royally f***ed this up. I mean, they definitely messed it up, but to what degree is yet to be determined….unless of course you’re a boras stooge.

 

But hey! Here’s a nice consolation prize for you. By regurgitating Boras talking points you’re indirectly contributing to the proliferation of baseball player salary inflation. As a matter of fact one could say you may be ever so slightly responsible for Betts, and Bogaerts being gone….so give yourself a pat on the back and thank you very much. Ok the last paragraph may be a bit of a stretch. But everything else is spot on. The crying of “they insulted him with their offer” narrative really really really really needs to die.

 

Well said, and you can fault the Sox and other teams for miscalculating the spike in market rates for the top free agents, but maybe they just never thought Bogey was worth near what the lowest point BorA$$ countered with. Knowing BorA$$, it's not necessarily a bad thing they didn't jump at any numbers BorA$$ threw out there. We don't know what the numbers were, for sure.

 

We can look back, now, and say wow, we coulda, shoulda, I woulda all we want, but I don't necessarily fault the Sox for sticking to their price line. In hindsight, sure, maybe the lowest number BorA$$ offered was way less than what he got fro SD, but that doesn't mean he's worth it or will earn it.

 

I think Henry is going the way of the Astros.

 

Build the farm.

 

Okay to go large.

 

Okay to go long.

 

Not okay to go large & long.

 

It's not a bad strategy and pretty simple to understand.

[Old Red]

Are you saying the only reason Bloom was successful in Tampa was because of his guys?

 

That would explain it all wouldn’t it. Maybe they picked the wrong guy.

[moonslav59]

Agree with most except I think Bloom not reading the market correctly had more to do with Bogey leaving. I believe JH gets his info from Bloom, but it wouldn’t surprise me either that Henry didn’t want to pay even $150M to retain Bogey.

 

Maybe $150-160M, now, but not back when the market was near $170-180.

[Bobe2]

Well said, and you can fault the Sox and other teams for miscalculating the spike in market rates for the top free agents, but maybe they just never thought Bogey was worth near what the lowest point BorA$$ countered with. Knowing BorA$$, it's not necessarily a bad thing they didn't jump at any numbers BorA$$ threw out there. We don't know what the numbers were, for sure.

 

We can look back, now, and say wow, we coulda, shoulda, I woulda all we want, but I don't necessarily fault the Sox for sticking to their price line. In hindsight, sure, maybe the lowest number BorA$$ offered was way less than what he got fro SD, but that doesn't mean he's worth it or will earn it.

 

I think Henry is going the way of the Astros.

 

Build the farm.

 

Okay to go large.

 

Okay to go long.

 

Not okay to go large & long.

 

It's not a bad strategy and pretty simple to understand.

 

The only thing that really matters is the product that’s being put on the field, players salaries will continue to go up uncontrolled it seems to be what the owners want, otherwise they would have at least tried to get a salary cap in last negotiations with union, only sport nfl, nba, nhl without one

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox don't seem to have anyone in their front office who knows anything about PR anymore. That's what Lucchino was good at. Now they're a PR disaster.

[Bobe2]

The Red Sox don't seem to have anyone in their front office who knows anything about PR anymore. That's what Lucchino was good at. Now they're a PR disaster.

 

I liked Lucchino, he was outspoken, but he did give us the Panda and Hanley

[Bobe2]

That would explain it all wouldn’t it. Maybe they picked the wrong guy.

 

You never know

[Bellhorn04]

I liked Lucchino, he was outspoken, but he did give us the Panda and Hanley

 

Or it was a 50/50 deal. Larry cornered Ben and said "You pick one and I'll pick one. And we'll announce them both on the same day."

[moonslav59]

I think this is the more likely scenario, and just Bloom being in way over his head. Like I’ve said many times before that doesn’t really qualify as a offer as ridiculous as it was, and certainly didn’t warrant any counter offer. Dumb, and dumber, which led to a bummer.

 

Do you think what I am about to present was likely, possible or not likely.

 

Henry & Co. interviews Bloom as something like this is presented:

 

"We like what you guys did in Tampa Bay with a limited budget. We want to go in a different direction from where we have been headed for the last 4 years. It may not be pretty. We let our farm decline to the point where our last major impact homegrown player was Devers, and we're not sure when the next one is going to be called up. We don't even have a name, yet. We want your number one priority to be to build up the farm and 40 man foundation, while we get the budget in order. You are going to experience a lot of criticism, as the fanbase here is nowhere near as tolerant as what you had in Tampa. You will be blamed for trading Betts and Price, and yes, that will be your other major task, to start with.

 

We will slowly increase your winter spending budget after year one and two, but we will not be going over the tax line for more than a year, until we've reached a point where our farm and 40 man foundation is strong enough to warrant spending big to get us over the top. You will have a budget like you never had in Tampa, and we expect you to get the team to respectability by 2021 or 2022 and in a position to step it up by maybe 2023 or 2024. We realize it may take 3-4 years to build a strong and deep system and another 1-2 years for some of the younger players to mature into high impact players. It's basically a 5 year plan, but we will never tell the fanbase this. We will try to do just enough to keep the fans interested and thinking we have a chance to make the playoffs by year 2 or 3- maybe 4. You will not be trading any top prospects for at least 3-4 years, maybe 4-5. You will need to fill about 12 roster slots with less money than Betts and Price make in your first year. You may get about $40M in winter two, and we expect you only need to fill 8-10 slots by then. In winter 3, you may get near $60M to spend on 6-8 slots. You will be faced with the Bogey and Devers situations that may turn out like what we had to do with Betts. The fans will hate and blame you, if we lose one or both.

 

Are you up to the task?

 

Bloom, "Sir! Yes, sir! Where do I sign?"

[Bobe2]

Or it was a 50/50 deal. Larry cornered Ben and said "You pick one and I'll pick one. And we'll announce them both on the same day."

 

They both should have stayed home that day

[moonslav59]

The only thing that really matters is the product that’s being put on the field, players salaries will continue to go up uncontrolled it seems to be what the owners want, otherwise they would have at least tried to get a salary cap in last negotiations with union, only sport nfl, nba, nhl without one

 

I totally agree.

 

I'm just looking at what should have been expected given the long stretch with no meaningful impact players coming from within the system, and how long a new GM needs to be given to turn that around. No GM can build up a farm and start seeing meaningful results in 3 short years. It's kind of amazing he acquired the prospect Whitlock through Rule 5.

 

I'm just looking at what should have been expected when the 2019 team, fresh off of losing Kimbrel, Kelly was then forced to trim Betts, Price, Porcello and others, then given a fraction of their contractual total to spend on the 2020 team- a team with a dozen open slots and just $40M to spend. This while watching Sale and ERod miss 2020, and and Pedey & Sale miss almost every game afterwards but still taking up a big chunk of your budget. This while watching sporadic decline from JD and some other vets. This while having your bosses tell you to sell a rosy picture and never ever, ever even consider trading away a top prospect for a quick fix to help you save some face.

 

What GM can start with a roster full of holes and contractual albatrosses and a farm with a 5 year window of producing nobody but Houck and then told, cut the budget and then spend enough to break even, afterwards until March of 2022, when he's thrown one bone- the Story signing.

 

Call this excuse making, but it's reality. Expecting a great team by 2022 was all but impossible.

 

To be honest, I thought we might get there this winter, but with the absurd contracts being thrown around, the $80M I thought could do wonders, is now enough for 2-3 major players, not the 4-5 I hoped for and 3-4 less than we ended up being able to afford.

[Hugh2]

Are you saying the only reason Bloom was successful in Tampa was because of his guys?

 

No.

[moonslav59]

Not much left for catching options.

 

There was talk we wanted to "add a catcher," but no word on him being a starter, back-up or organizational depth beyond Kaleb Hamilton.

 

Alex Scherff!!

 

This can not be stressed enough.

 

It’s also worth noting Bloom didn’t really bring over any of his guys. The guys he’s signing and the prospects he’s trading for are being done by him through the information of the Red Sox scouting and evaluators.

 

If the Sox decide to move on from Bloom and hire a new GM, they need a lot more than just that. They need to invest more money into pro and amateur scouting.

 

The scouts and evaluators did not trade away 20 top or previously top 20 prospects under DD's reign, although one could look at how they turned out and shrug. Winning and spending under DD made draft picks lower and bonus pools lower, yet, IMO, many of DD'd draft picks surpassed expectations and are now beginning to make their way onto the big club. (Note: see how long it takes to see results from your own farm building? Most Sox recent GMs are gone before they see them.)

 

The IFA penalties given to the Sox under Ben, were not their fault either.

 

They've swung and missed on a few higher picks, but seem to have done a fine job rebuilding the farm to respectability while adding depth through trades that don't seem to look all that good, right now, except maybe for German and possibly EValdez.

 

I'm not sure a total overhaul is needed. Maybe some fresh blood added, especially in the area of finding pitchers and developing them into gems.

[Bobe2]

I totally agree.

 

I'm just looking at what should have been expected given the long stretch with no meaningful impact players coming from within the system, and how long a new GM needs to be given to turn that around. No GM can build up a farm and start seeing meaningful results in 3 short years. It's kind of amazing he acquired the prospect Whitlock through Rule 5.

 

I'm just looking at what should have been expected when the 2019 team, fresh off of losing Kimbrel, Kelly was then forced to trim Betts, Price, Porcello and others, then given a fraction of their contractual total to spend on the 2020 team- a team with a dozen open slots and just $40M to spend. This while watching Sale and ERod miss 2020, and and Pedey & Sale miss almost every game afterwards but still taking up a big chunk of your budget. This while watching sporadic decline from JD and some other vets. This while having your bosses tell you to sell a rosy picture and never ever, ever even consider trading away a top prospect for a quick fix to help you save some face.

 

What GM can start with a roster full of holes and contractual albatrosses and a farm with a 5 year window of producing nobody but Houck and then told, cut the budget and then spend enough to break even, afterwards until March of 2022, when he's thrown one bone- the Story signing.

 

Call this excuse making, but it's reality. Expecting a great team by 2022 was all but impossible.

 

To be honest, I thought we might get there this winter, but with the absurd contracts being thrown around, the $80M I thought could do wonders, is now enough for 2-3 major players, not the 4-5 I hoped for and 3-4 less than we ended up being able to afford.

I agree with that, the only thing that keeps sticking in my craw is we treaded some race horses and got back all pony’s not one ready to make the jump, I think this set us back more than you know, our farm is rated better but we are no better off now as when he started we still have no prospects ready to move up, except some that have been in the system for a while, and no way to get more prospects except the draft and wire unless we trade another starter