2023 Free Agents

[mvp 78]

It doesn't. I said it could be viewed as such, especially after we saw what happened in 2022. To few injuries in '21 or too many in '22- maybe it was not fluke.

 

Maybe the cliff was just 1 year, and we were wrong about the length of the cliff.

 

One thing is for certain, if the cliff was just one year long, it wasn't because we rebuilt the farm overnight like many cliff deniers claimed we could do.

 

If the cliff is only really one down year, who cares? Why post about it endlessly for year on end?

[mvp 78]

Again, I did not. I said it "COULD" be called...

 

It's funny how some bring up our feelings before 2019 as evidence 2019 was not the start of the cliff, but how we felt before 2021 matters little.

 

It matters because you've been complaining about the cliff since as long as I can remember.

[mvp 78]

How many times do I need to say we were wrong about the length?

 

I did bring up that 2022 could be called part of the cliff, if you can view 2021 as a fluke- like many viewed 2013, but I never said that is fact.

 

I don't view it as a fluke, you stated it was a fluke. I've said over and over that the 2021 squad had many of the same players as the 2018 squad.

[notin]

I don't view it as a fluke, you stated it was a fluke. I've said over and over that the 2021 squad had many of the same players as the 2018 squad.

 

It had more members of the 2020 squad…

[Bellhorn04]

It had more members of the 2020 squad…

 

Do we have to list the core players still around from 2018?

[mvp 78]

Do we have to list the core players still around from 2018?

 

Having just 1 Martin Perez removes all value any remaining 2018 Red Sox players could have. I mean, that guy couldn't possibly have been good in 2021 or later.

[Old Red]

I don't view it as a fluke, you stated it was a fluke. I've said over and over that the 2021 squad had many of the same players as the 2018 squad.

 

If Bogey, Raffy, or JD, and co. Only thought they were only on a cliff any of these past few years they probably would have jumped.

[moonslav59]

On one hand you say things like "some of use predicted tough times ahead" and couch it with 2021 being a fluke year stuck between 2020 and 2022.

 

However, you also said:

 

 

 

C'mon man...

 

You can't say you predicted "tough times" but then have your own Realistic View Part II thread state a prediction of 92 wins for 2022... At least stick with the same argument.

 

The cliff WAS 2020 for you. Bloom used magic and wits to get back to the ALCS in 2021. The cliff is gone... You said so last offseason. If there is poor performance now, it's due to Bloom and not due to the cliff...

 

I have admitted many times I was wrong about the cliff being this short. I'm not sure what more I have to say.

 

I don't hear any cliff deniers admitting anything. Why not say something to them?

 

Why not say something to those who swore the farm could be rebuilt to prominence in 1-2 years?

 

I brought up the "fluke" nature of 2021 within the context of what happened in 2022. I like our chances of making the playoffs, this year, too, but as it turned out, maybe the cliff of 2020 is carrying over- not as a cliff by name, but not really being at "cliff level."

 

IMO, we are still feeling the effects of what happened during and after 2019.

 

[moonslav59]

If Bogey, Raffy, or JD, and co. Only thought they were only on a cliff any of these past few years they probably would have jumped.

 

Betts jumped.

JD had a contract and will not return.

Bogey is about to jump.

Devers may soon.

[moonslav59]

I don't view it as a fluke, you stated it was a fluke. I've said over and over that the 2021 squad had many of the same players as the 2018 squad.

 

Stop. I said some could have called it a fluke.

 

[moonslav59]

If the cliff is only really one down year, who cares? Why post about it endlessly for year on end?

 

I'm responding to you and others.

 

Why do the deniers keep bringing it up?

[redsoxrules]

I view last year as a fluke as they basically had to come from behind in the very last game of the season to make the last playoff spot. They lose that game they weren't beating Toronto with that crazy offense they had in a one hame play off. Not to mention Kike turned into Babe Ruth for the playoffs. Kike will never duplicate that in his life. Last years Red Sox is basically the version of the Phillies this year. Eventgough they made it that far it doesn't mean they were that great. They just happen to get a hot stretch at the right time. I'll obviously take it as a Sox fan but it was a fluke. That team was so s*** last year down the stretch. You didn't know what you were getting from one week to another

[moonslav59]

I view last year as a fluke as they basically had to come from behind in the very last game of the season to make the last playoff spot. They lose that game they weren't beating Toronto with that crazy offense they had in a one hame play off. Not to mention Kike turned into Babe Ruth for the playoffs. Kike will never duplicate that in his life. Last years Red Sox is basically the version of the Phillies this year. Eventgough they made it that far it doesn't mean they were that great. They just happen to get a hot stretch at the right time. I'll obviously take it as a Sox fan but it was a fluke. That team was so s*** last year down the stretch. You didn't know what you were getting from one week to another

 

I do think one could look at the totality of 2020-2022 and maybe not call it a "cliff." I'm fine with saying that term was wrong, because it implies more than just one year, but these last 3 years were far from the level of 2018.

 

Say I'm moving the goalpost. I am.

 

Say a cliff can't be just one year. Fine.

 

The fact is going all in for the window from 2026-2019 had severe consequences and some are being felt, right now, too.

 

At the risk of sounding like a broken record:

 

1. From Devers in mid 2017 to Bello & Casas in 2022, we went 5 years with only Houck, Dalbec and Duran being noteworthy call-ups, and two of them are nothing to be excited about anymore.

 

2. The budget crunch caused by the signings and extensions made before 2019 caused some very impactful decisions to be made by top brass and Bloom, including dumping Price's contract and letting Betts go a year before his time was up. It may have also contributed to why Bogey and or Devers might be leaving, as well.

 

3. The decline of many of the biggest and brightest stars of 2018 was inevitable and predictable.

 

It was not some extreme position to think a downturn was coming. We can argue about what word to call it or how long it occured, but let's not say there were no effects from that window. While nobody is actually saying "no effects," I do get the sense some are b ending over backwards to minimize it while accusing us for bending over backwards to show the downturn happened as predicted.

 

I'm not denying I thought it would be longer than 1 year. I did not think 2019 would be the start of the decline. I even argued, with luck and investment, we could extend the window to 2020. The s*** hit the fan. No moves were made at the 2019 deadline, and rightfully so, and a big part of the team was blown up heading into 2020, despite the Sale injury and ERod COVID issue. The 2020 team, even if relatively healthy, was not even close to the 2018 team, and there was no hope for anything from the farm arriving to bail us out. To me, that is reality.

 

We can say there never was a cliff. Those who denied it can point fingers and gloat all you want, and in many respects, you were right. There is also much they got wrong, but nis anyone of them admitting it?

 

Did we rebuild the farm in 1-2 short years?

 

Did JH "just spend more" to keep us on top?

 

That is what the cliff-deniers were saying? Were they right? Were they more right than the "cliff dwellers?"

 

I don't think you can answer that with a clear yes. IMO, the answer is No, but that is just my opinion which could easily be biased. (lol)

 

[Hugh2]

I view last year as a fluke as they basically had to come from behind in the very last game of the season to make the last playoff spot. They lose that game they weren't beating Toronto with that crazy offense they had in a one hame play off. Not to mention Kike turned into Babe Ruth for the playoffs. Kike will never duplicate that in his life. Last years Red Sox is basically the version of the Phillies this year. Eventgough they made it that far it doesn't mean they were that great. They just happen to get a hot stretch at the right time. I'll obviously take it as a Sox fan but it was a fluke. That team was so s*** last year down the stretch. You didn't know what you were getting from one week to another

 

2nd 1/2 ops went from .761 to .798 they went 17-11 in September and pitched good. They had a funk late July early agust but besides that they were mint in the second half. But of course it was a fluke, all seasons are flukey to some extent, that works both ways too. Have to accept both

[Hugh2]

I think people take cliff literal to mean will suck, rather I view a team hitting the cliff but willing to spend over 200 having a seasons like 2021, not great but good enough to get lucky.

[moonslav59]

So, Montero signed for about $35M/3.

 

Would anyone here have offered him $12M x 3?

 

I might have.

 

Diaz got $102M/5. Big NOPE from me on outbidding that.

[moonslav59]

I think people take cliff literal to mean will suck, rather I view a team hitting the cliff but willing to spend over 200 having a seasons like 2021, not great but good enough to get lucky.

 

The thing I look at is winter spending in light of what salary was shed those winters.

 

From 2019 to 2020, we saw a massive budget cut led by shedding the Price and Betts contracts, but also some other players no re-signed. We basically filled many slots with about $40M in winter spending- mostly 1 year deals.

 

There were less holes to fill between 2020 and 2021, thanks in part to some crafty deadline trades, but we still only spent about $40M that winter, too, in new spending.

 

This past winter, it looked like we were heading to the same end result, until the Story signing jumped our new spending by quite a bit. The first major signing since the Bogey and Sale extensions.

 

Even if we had a normal infusion of quality prospects from 2018 to mid 2022, the budget restraints, alone, would have made it very tough to put together a top contending team. I get the crapshoot argument. I get the results from 2021 being a strong counterpoint to the whole idea of there being an extended downturn or "cliff." It's a great point. I'm not denying it, but I'm also not going to sugarcoat the long term affects the "all in" nature of the 2016-2019 window had on the 2019-2022 team outlook and results. It was a significant factor in our struggles these past 3-4 years.

 

I'll say it again. The term cliff and the implied longer term nature of that word was not a good choice of words, in hindsight. I was wrong to think we'd be bad for 2-3 years straight. I can write it a hundred times, if that would help some of you understand I mean it. I was wrong.

 

I was not wrong about the team having struggles for multiple years due to everything that was done before Bloom took over. The degree and nonconsecutiveness of the struggles shows it was not as bad as many of us felt it would be. I'd like to point out that it has not been as rosy as those denying a downturn was unavoidable made it out to be, either.

[redsoxrules]

2nd 1/2 ops went from .761 to .798 they went 17-11 in September and pitched good. They had a funk late July early agust but besides that they were mint in the second half. But of course it was a fluke, all seasons are flukey to some extent, that works both ways too. Have to accept both

 

They finished 29-30 in their last 59 games with a run differential of +11. They limped into the playoffs thanks to their hot start to the season.

[notin]

They finished 29-30 in their last 59 games with a run differential of +11. They limped into the playoffs thanks to their hot start to the season.

 

That 29-30 stretch started off with a 2-10 stretch. After that they went 27-20 in their last 47 games. I suppose it depends when you like to start.

 

July was the only month in which they were under .500…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So, Montero signed for about $35M/3.

 

Would anyone here have offered him $12M x 3?

 

I might have.

 

Diaz got $102M/5. Big NOPE from me on outbidding that.

 

You Get What You Pay For doesn't always work with the relief specialist, which may be the most mercurial of positions.

 

But the Astros are paying Pressly $14M, Montero $11.5M and Nerris $8M. And they're in the ALCS every year.

[Hugh2]

They finished 29-30 in their last 59 games with a run differential of +11. They limped into the playoffs thanks to their hot start to the season.

 

Yes, that was due to a huge slump they had the last week of July and early august, after that they went on a run ending the season. Try again.

[Hugh2]

That 29-30 stretch started off with a 2-10 stretch. After that they went 27-20 in their last 47 games. I suppose it depends when you like to start.

 

July was the only month in which they were under .500…

 

Exactly, it’s amazing how someone can rewrite the 2021 campaign by saying they limped down the stretch. They eventually got Sale back and Schwarber got healthy and they went on a run all the way up to game 6 of the ALCS.

 

You can overperform and be fluky, but that can’t be all luck during a 162 game season. That’s just silly.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Exactly, it’s amazing how someone can rewrite the 2021 campaign by saying they limped down the stretch. They eventually got Sale back and Schwarber got healthy and they went on a run all the way up to game 6 of the ALCS.

 

You can overperform and be fluky, but that can’t be all luck during a 162 game season. That’s just silly.

 

It may have seemed lucky the '21 Sox had to sweep last-place Washington the final three games to make the playoffs -- but even that was a struggle. The Nats were all done, but the Sox still had to pull the last two out in the 9th inning -- including one that Houck pitched a perfect game through five.

[Hugh2]

It may have seemed lucky the '21 Sox had to sweep last-place Washington the final three games to make the playoffs -- but even that was a struggle. The Nats were all done, but the Sox still had to pull the last two out in the 9th inning -- including one that Houck pitched a perfect game through five.

 

So what? they were in a position to do that because of what they did the other 159 games during the year. It's a 162-game season. Can't cherry-pick the season. If they beat last-place Washington in June and then swept the Yankees at the very end of the season would that be the same thing? They still won 92 games. They then beat the Yankees and the 100-win Rays in a series.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So what? they were in a position to do that because of what they did the other 159 games during the year. It's a 162-game season. Can't cherry-pick the season. If they beat last-place Washington in June and then swept the Yankees at the very end of the season would that be the same thing? They still won 92 games. They then beat the Yankees and the 100-win Rays in a series.

 

Sports is all about cherry-picking -- fans don't care about chronology, because the media's only focus is on the end of seasons, and the pile-up celebration of the next champions, over and over again. So that great run in the postseason was made possible by a two-run homer by Devers in the last inning of the regular season. It doesn't negate any other game-winning hits by Raffy or teammates leading up to it, but it's still the most memorable... until the next one.

[Hugh2]

Sports is all about cherry-picking -- fans don't care about chronology, because the media's only focus is on the end of seasons, and the pile-up celebration of the next champions, over and over again. So that great run in the postseason was made possible by a two-run homer by Devers in the last inning of the regular season. It doesn't negate any other game-winning hits by Raffy or teammates leading up to it, but it's still the most memorable... until the next one.

 

I disagree, that's the fans perception and how we perceive the game. The reality is game 1 is just as important as game 162. And in that 162-game season, we won 92 and game 2 games short of a world series. No amount of cherry-picking can change that fact. Because that's exactly what happened.

[notin]

Sports is all about cherry-picking -- fans don't care about chronology, because the media's only focus is on the end of seasons, and the pile-up celebration of the next champions, over and over again. So that great run in the postseason was made possible by a two-run homer by Devers in the last inning of the regular season. It doesn't negate any other game-winning hits by Raffy or teammates leading up to it, but it's still the most memorable... until the next one.

 

 

No.

 

Baseball is all about cherry-picking, because teams play 162 games and everyone wins between 40% and 60% of them. (And those rarities that do fall outside that range don’t fall outside it by much.) You can literally find bad stretches for any team. It just depends how much you emphasize them to support whatever point you’re trying to make.

 

You can’t always do that to football teams…

[moonslav59]

You Get What You Pay For doesn't always work with the relief specialist, which may be the most mercurial of positions.

 

But the Astros are paying Pressly $14M, Montero $11.5M and Nerris $8M. And they're in the ALCS every year.

 

Their pen was their weakest or one of the weakest area a few years back, so it's not like that is what has gotten them to the ALCS "every year."

[Bellhorn04]

I have admitted many times I was wrong about the cliff being this short. I'm not sure what more I have to say.

 

Maybe just stop using the term. File it. All of us.

[mvp 78]

Betts jumped.

JD had a contract and will not return.

Bogey is about to jump.

Devers may soon.

 

Mookie was traded.