A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Hugh2]

Are we seriously complaining about Mickey Romero and Nick Yorke here???? haha

[notin]

(Not) Fun stat you probably didn’t know:

 

Since April 16:

 

Casas: .782 OPS

Devers: .745 OPS

[Old Red]

(Not) Fun stat you probably didn’t know:

 

Since April 16:

 

Casas: .782 OPS

Devers: .745 OPS

 

And the eye test has shown you neither one has been that good. Raffy has definitely not been as good as his power numbers suggest. The eye test gives you a lot better idea how these guys have done.

Edited June 26, 2023 by Old Red

[mvp 78]

since when has BLOOM taken the best player available with his 1st rd pick other than Mayer?

 

We don't know what the Red Sox' drafting board looked like. Yorke and Romero could have been the best picks available at the time.

 

Also, there are advantages to going underslot in the first round to spread the money throughout the draft.

[mvp 78]

And the eye test has shown you neither one has been that good. Raffy has definitely not been as good as his power numbers suggest. The eye test gives you a lot better idea how these guys have done.

 

Your eye test is wrong about Casas. Maybe it needs to be retired. Seems like the settings are still stuck in April.

[Old Red]

Your eye test is wrong about Casas. Maybe it needs to be retired. Seems like the settings are still stuck in April.

 

My eyes are good enough to tell me that Casas doesn’t have much of a clue on playing 1B, and while his hitting has improved he is not anyone I would want to give a long term Braves like contract to just yet.

[mvp 78]

My eyes are good enough to tell me that Casas doesn’t have much of a clue on playing 1B, and while his hitting has improved he is not anyone I would want to give a long term Braves like contract to just yet.

 

My eye test is telling me that those goal posts just moved pretty substantially from "hasn't been that good" to "wouldn't give a massive long term extension to."

[Old Red]

My eye test is telling me that those goal posts just moved pretty substantially from "hasn't been that good" to "wouldn't give a massive long term extension to."

 

For all the hype before his arrival I would say he’s been a failure to me so far at 1B, and with the bat. I’m sure you feel differently, but as always we see things differently.

[redsoxrules]

(Not) Fun stat you probably didn’t know:

 

Since April 16:

 

Casas: .782 OPS

Devers: .745 OPS

 

Woah, don't be showing numbers like that around here. The people who said to give Devers whatever he wants will not like this and will make excuses about it.

[sk7326]

And the eye test has shown you neither one has been that good. Raffy has definitely not been as good as his power numbers suggest. The eye test gives you a lot better idea how these guys have done.

 

It is always worth remembering that in his first exposure to the bigs, it looked more or less like Dustin Pedroia was totally incapable of playing major league baseball. Then 2007 happened, and the next year he was the MVP.

 

The progress on Casas has been slow - but it has been real. He has always had command of the strike zone - but now he is making more regular contact. I don't worry as much about the defense - but he has to get a bit better there. He is hardly the main culprit of the Sox' wretched defense.

[mvp 78]

Woah, don't be showing numbers like that around here. The people who said to give Devers whatever he wants will not like this and will make excuses about it.

 

They should just DFA him.

[Maxbialystock]

My eyes are good enough to tell me that Casas doesn’t have much of a clue on playing 1B, and while his hitting has improved he is not anyone I would want to give a long term Braves like contract to just yet.

 

Meh. I think he's pretty good at catching throws to first base. He uses his height well. Plus very recently he made a terrific flip toss to the pitcher on what was probably one of the best Sox defensive plays of the season. Nevertheless, his DWAR right now is -0.9, largely, I think, because he does not have great hands on fielding grounders. Plus he weighs 244 lbs and does not move all that well.

 

The real test, however, is his hitting. If he can hit, he will play. This year his April OPS was .585, May was .766, and June .848. That's a pretty nice progression. He's 23, so the Sox have plenty of time to decide on any long term contract.

[mvp 78]

Casas' defense is a problem.

 

The 1B with worse OAA than Casas:

Vlad Jr

Spencer Steer

 

The 1B with worse DRS:

None (tied with Trey Mancini and Spencer Torkelson)

 

His UZR/150 of 0.9 is fine. It's the picking at 1B that's been a problem.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec was a negative DRS/OAA guy at 1B too. Casas needs to put the work in.

[moonslav59]

Something about 1B defense with this team. Everyone ends up worse than expected.

[redsoxrules]

I'm not sold on Casas yet but I'm not giving up on him quite yet. He's still only 23 years old. He's ranked 20 amongst 1st basemen at 99 WRC+

 

His OPS+ is only 95 so far this year.

Hasn't been able to hit much for AVG so far either.

 

He also hasn't played 100 games yet in the Majors so I'll cut him some slack for now

[Hugh2]

I'm not sold on Casas yet but I'm not giving up on him quite yet. He's still only 23 years old. He's ranked 20 amongst 1st basemen at 99 WRC+

 

His OPS+ is only 95 so far this year.

Hasn't been able to hit much for AVG so far either.

 

He also hasn't played 100 games yet in the Majors so I'll cut him some slack for now

 

His average/ops by month

 

April .137/.585

May .257/.766

June .267/.848

 

Keep in mind, the average batting average and OPS for 2023 so far is .248/.729

 

You take out his first month this seasn (as a 23 year old rookie) and he's an above-average hitter. It's not unreasonable at all given his talent, age, and upward mobility that he's only going to get better.

[Dipre]

Woah, don't be showing numbers like that around here. The people who said to give Devers whatever he wants will not like this and will make excuses about it.

 

Did you lend Devers money and he never paid you back?

[redsoxrules]

Did you lend Devers money and he never paid you back?

 

Nope!

Can I not have an opinion that they overpaid him too much and he won't be worth it?

[Maxbialystock]

Nope!

Can I not have an opinion that they overpaid him too much and he won't be worth it?

 

You can certainly have that opinion. It's even possible you are right. But I like his age, 26, and the fact that he's hit pretty well--with a career OPS of .848--since he came up in 2017.

 

It's .798 right now, which isn't exactly calamitous, plus he leads the Sox in total bases and in rbi's (he has 60 and Turner has the next most with 41).

 

His DWAR (0.0) says he is not hurting the team defensively and he been the AL All-Star third baseman the last two years.

[redsoxrules]

You can certainly have that opinion. It's even possible you are right. But I like his age, 26, and the fact that he's hit pretty well--with a career OPS of .848--since he came up in 2017.

 

It's .798 right now, which isn't exactly calamitous, plus he leads the Sox in total bases and in rbi's (he has 60 and Turner has the next most with 41).

 

His DWAR (0.0) says he is not hurting the team defensively and he been the AL All-Star third baseman the last two years.

 

I understand and I could also be wrong in then end. I just don't see the point in giving a boat load contract to a player where his only strength it hitting. I just feel for this contract to be worth it he would need to OPS in the range of 950 year in and year out just because his D is avg at best and he isn't exactly a speedster in the basepath

[Dipre]

Nope!

Can I not have an opinion that they overpaid him too much and he won't be worth it?

 

Sure, but he's three months into the extension, and your Devers hate borders on irrational.

[redsoxrules]

Sure, but he's three months into the extension, and your Devers hate borders on irrational.

 

This is not based on 3 months. I've mentioned many times before I don't think it's a great idea to offer a large contract like that unless it's to a player that's great on both sides. Meaning a gold glover who can also have a huge impact on D. Otherwise he would have to hit like Ortiz did when he was here and he is certainly no Ortiz.

 

 

 

And FYI Devers has been like this since August 1 of last year. It hasn't just been 3 months.

[notin]

This is not based on 3 months. I've mentioned many times before I don't think it's a great idea to offer a large contract like that unless it's to a player that's great on both sides. Meaning a gold glover who can also have a huge impact on D. Otherwise he would have to hit like Ortiz did when he was here and he is certainly no Ortiz.

 

 

 

And FYI Devers has been like this since August 1 of last year. It hasn't just been 3 months.

 

Last August/September, Devers was dealing with injuries. I haven’t heard if that’s the case this year…

[vegasbob]

I think the RS had little choice , given the fan base and loss of Bogaerts, except to extend Devers in a market rate contract. I only hope I live long enough to see the outcome of this one in 2033+-.

 

RSR has a point about Devers overall effectiveness, forget the money. Raffy's longevity is ,at minimum, a concern , but on a team with no real other star players yet, it's ok to have one in the fold. Good luck to him and the team . Call me when he weighs 260 and can only DH. It should be about 2028. Meanwhile knock the cover off the ball, you full of joy kid ( O'Bs quote)

[Dipre]

This is not based on 3 months. I've mentioned many times before I don't think it's a great idea to offer a large contract like that unless it's to a player that's great on both sides. Meaning a gold glover who can also have a huge impact on D. Otherwise he would have to hit like Ortiz did when he was here and he is certainly no Ortiz.

 

 

 

And FYI Devers has been like this since August 1 of last year. It hasn't just been 3 months.

 

They paid him about market rate the way salaries are exploding. I think that's where we mainly differ. He's also very young, and will spend a large portion of the contract on the right side of 30.