A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

That starting line-up features one guy who has played a full MLB season at his listed position: Rafael Devers.

 

But let's say all the guys returning from injuries have great comebacks, all the rookies transition into good big leaguers without painful adjustments, Turner becomes an instant leader, and Verdugo reaches his potential. And the old pitchers don't break down, the new bullpen does its job, and Bello dominates like at every level in his climb to the majors.

 

In those best-case scenarios, the Red Sox are bound to improve...

 

There's only one question about the new balanced schedule: while Boston will play less games vs. tough AL East teams... wouldn't that mean that they will, too?

 

I love this comment especially: "all the rookies transition into good big leaguers without painful adjustments." There are 3 rookies listed with one being a backup catcher and another being a 29 year old from overseas that the Sox have scouted for and drooled over for years.

[mvp 78]

I like Valdez, and I think he has an MLB future but I have two big concerns about him. His ability to hit LHP, and his defense. His defense is very subpar, and if he's a blackhole against LHP he's most definitely a platoon bat. I think he will contribute in 2023 but if the Sox are counting on him to play every day at some point for a prolonged period of time I think they are in trouble.

 

I don't think the Sox see him as an everyday player.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I love this comment especially: "all the rookies transition into good big leaguers without painful adjustments." There are 3 rookies listed with one being a backup catcher and another being a 29 year old from overseas that the Sox have scouted for and drooled over for years.

 

One rookie already stirred some aches and pains into his cup of coffee last fall.

 

Another MLB top 100 prospect could be the best rookie from a non-American continent.

 

The third was so highly regarded they traded a Hall of Famer for him.

 

It's going to be like having Lynn, Rice and Fisk all make it in the same season!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like Valdez, and I think he has an MLB future but I have two big concerns about him. His ability to hit LHP, and his defense. His defense is very subpar, and if he's a blackhole against LHP he's most definitely a platoon bat. I think he will contribute in 2023 but if the Sox are counting on him to play every day at some point for a prolonged period of time I think they are in trouble.

 

He has that Rougned Odor vibe. Sox would take three 30 home run seasons from him.

[notin]

One rookie already stirred some aches and pains into his cup of coffee last fall.

 

Another MLB top 100 prospect could be the best rookie from a non-American continent.

 

The third was so highly regarded they traded a Hall of Famer for him.

 

It's going to be like having Lynn, Rice and Fisk all make it in the same season!

.

 

So you’re saying the entire point was to get Wong? And not that Wong just happened to be determined to be acceptable in the final iteration of a trade that was essentially a salary dump?

[Nick]

“His defense is elite and he’s a 70 runner as well, so he doesn’t have to hit that much to be a solid big leaguer, and he could be an above-average regular as a low-OBP, 20+ homer guy. The hope is that he improves the choices he’s making as a hitter and that he recognizes pitch types sooner with experience and reduces some of that chase to give himself a chance to be a high-average hitter and potential star on both sides of the ball.”

 

To that ******* Yankee fan, I never said he was Betts, just that his defense was as good. He plays elite level DEFENSIVELY at TWO PREMIUM POSITIONS. Shove it.

 

#37 on the Athletics List of 100 top prospects.

 

For all the naysayers, our farm is better.

[Hugh2]

He has that Rougned Odor vibe. Sox would take three 30 home run seasons from him.

 

Odor gave you even platoon splits. He was a career .725-.681 hitter vs RHP/LHP the last 3 seasons Valdez has had much larger platoon splits. 2022 (.598-.388) 2021 (.926-.665) 2020 (.722-.567).

 

Unlike Odor who is maybe a fringey starter, Valdez is a prototypical platoon player.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

.

 

So you’re saying the entire point was to get Wong? And not that Wong just happened to be determined to be acceptable in the final iteration of a trade that was essentially a salary dump?

 

Wong again.

[Bellhorn04]

There's only one question about the new balanced schedule: while Boston will play less games vs. tough AL East teams... wouldn't that mean that they will, too?

 

Yeah, it shouldn't really specifically benefit the Red Sox.

[notin]

Yeah, it shouldn't really specifically benefit the Red Sox.

 

It’s doubtful the Sox will continue the most recent pace of both their ineptitude against the AL East nor dominance of everyone else.

 

Certainly if they continue only one pace, the ineptitude one is a lot easier…

[notin]

Wong again.

 

Hey I’m not trying one who said Wong was so highly regarded they dealt a Hall of Famer to get him. That position might be more supported if Wong was actually in the first (and much better) version of that trade…

[sk7326]

“His defense is elite and he’s a 70 runner as well, so he doesn’t have to hit that much to be a solid big leaguer, and he could be an above-average regular as a low-OBP, 20+ homer guy. The hope is that he improves the choices he’s making as a hitter and that he recognizes pitch types sooner with experience and reduces some of that chase to give himself a chance to be a high-average hitter and potential star on both sides of the ball.”

 

To that ******* Yankee fan, I never said he was Betts, just that his defense was as good. He plays elite level DEFENSIVELY at TWO PREMIUM POSITIONS. Shove it.

 

#37 on the Athletics List of 100 top prospects.

 

For all the naysayers, our farm is better.

 

Not exactly. He is a fine 2B prospect - but it was when he moved to CF that you started getting those 70-80 defense scout ratings.

 

The thing with his approach is that he seems to track like a Nomar or Vlad - where he is up there to swing, but he is very good at getting the barrel of the bat on pitches. He just needs to work on chasing less. And of course he is tiny - though he clearly is generating good leverage. That said, .278/.330/.500 as a 21 year old in AA plus elite CF defense is a very very encouraging prospect. Absolutely worth being excited.

[Bellhorn04]

Hey I’m not trying one who said Wong was so highly regarded they dealt a Hall of Famer to get him. That position might be more supported if Wong was actually in the first (and much better) version of that trade…

 

You are really fond of Graterol.

[mvp 78]

“His defense is elite and he’s a 70 runner as well, so he doesn’t have to hit that much to be a solid big leaguer, and he could be an above-average regular as a low-OBP, 20+ homer guy. The hope is that he improves the choices he’s making as a hitter and that he recognizes pitch types sooner with experience and reduces some of that chase to give himself a chance to be a high-average hitter and potential star on both sides of the ball.”

 

To that ******* Yankee fan, I never said he was Betts, just that his defense was as good. He plays elite level DEFENSIVELY at TWO PREMIUM POSITIONS. Shove it.

 

#37 on the Athletics List of 100 top prospects.

 

For all the naysayers, our farm is better.

 

I think his defense is good at SS, but I think his defense is elite in CF. I'm not sure he has GG SS defense.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hey I’m not trying one who said Wong was so highly regarded they dealt a Hall of Famer to get him. That position might be more supported if Wong was actually in the first (and much better) version of that trade…

 

It is undeniable that someone who works for the Red Sox agreed to take Connor Wong in a trade for Mookie Betts.

 

It is yet to be proven that someone who works for the Sox also posts on talksox...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Red Sox MLB reporter Ian Browne today: "Rafaela, whose wiry 5-foot-8 frame and spectacular defense are enough to remind you of a young Mookie Betts..."

[mvp 78]

It is undeniable that someone who works for the Red Sox agreed to take Connor Wong in a trade for Mookie Betts.

 

It is yet to be proven that someone who works for the Sox also posts on talksox...

 

No, we have standards here...

[notin]

It is undeniable that someone who works for the Red Sox agreed to take Connor Wong in a trade for Mookie Betts.

 

It is yet to be proven that someone who works for the Sox also posts on talksox...

 

But that doesn’t mean Wong was “highly regarded” as opposed to “the best they could get”…

[mvp 78]

Well, the return on the Beni deal could have been worse.

 

@NBCSEdgeBB

Report: Khalil Lee accused of domestic abuse

[mvp 78]

@jcmccaffrey

Red Sox announce 10 non-roster invitees to big league camp:

 

RHPs Dan Altavilla, Taylor Broadway, Durbin Feltman, Victor Santos and Chase Shugart

INFs Christian Koss and Matthew Lugo

INF/OFs Ryan Fitzgerald and Nick Sogard

C Stephen Scott

 

Aside from Scott and Lugo, doesn't seem like anyone else interesting in this group. I believe other NRI's have already been announced.

[Bellhorn04]

It would be cool if Taylor Broadway sticks, though.

[mvp 78]

@BillKoch25

Red Sox had previously announced 11 other non-roster invitees to spring training:

- Ps Matt Dermody, Norwith Gudino, Oddanier Mosqueda, Ryan Sherriff

- Cs Jorge Alfaro, Caleb Hamilton, Ronaldo Hernández

- OFs Greg Allen, Narciso Crook, Raimel Tapia

- INF/OF Niko Goodrum

 

This group should have more impact on the MLB roster this season IMO.

[mvp 78]

It would be cool if Taylor Broadway sticks, though.

 

Because of his name, his history or his arm?

[mvp 78]

https://beyondthemonster.substack.com/p/can-the-red-sox-rely-on-alex-verdugo

 

A long feature on the issue of Verdugo's defense. Frankly, I think he's not going to be very good in RF even if he gets consistent reps out there. Year by year he's gotten slower. The plays he was noted as earning "5 stars" for were kind of embarrassing TBH. My guess is that he'll be below zero for OAA and DRS in RF. He might not be a disaster, but I'd expect like -3DRS and -2OAA. UZR/150 should be closer to zero than the -17 he had in RF last season.

[Hugh2]

It would be cool if Taylor Broadway sticks, though.

 

And becomes a closer. With a name like that, lord make it happen.

[Bellhorn04]

Because of his name, his history or his arm?

 

Name, of course.

[notin]

And becomes a closer. With a name like that, lord make it happen.

 

Walk up song suggestions?

[moonslav59]

That starting line-up features one guy who has played a full MLB season at his listed position: Rafael Devers.

 

But let's say all the guys returning from injuries have great comebacks, all the rookies transition into good big leaguers without painful adjustments, Turner becomes an instant leader, and Verdugo reaches his potential. And the old pitchers don't break down, the new bullpen does its job, and Bello dominates like at every level in his climb to the majors.

 

In those best-case scenarios, the Red Sox are bound to improve...

 

There's only one question about the new balanced schedule: while Boston will play less games vs. tough AL East teams... wouldn't that mean that they will, too?

 

Yes, but when looking at just win totals, the schedule should help us win more.

 

(Less chances of a non- AL East team making it, in theory.)

[moonslav59]

Yeah, it shouldn't really specifically benefit the Red Sox.

 

Well, it benefits more than just the Sox, but one other aspect of the schedule change beyond playing more games vs non AL East teams, but out of all the AL East teams, the Sox had the worst inter-division record, so in that sense, if you believe in a carry over effect, the schedule change should help us more than any other AL East team, and maybe any team in MLB.

 

vs AL East

26-50 BOS

34-42 BAL

40-36 TBR

43-33 TOR

47-29 NYY

 

We play 24 less games vs AL East. The 2022 record would indicate we'd go 8-16 in those 24 games. The Sox went 52-34 in games vs non AL East teams in 2022. Using that 60% win rate, we'd have gone 14-10 in those "24 games, instead of 8-16. That's 6 more wins just on the schedule change based on this formula, which of course is not a good projection tool.\

 

My guess is, the schedule change may help us win 3-5 more games and maybe other AL East teams 2-4 more.

 

 

[Bobe2]

But that doesn’t mean Wong was “highly regarded” as opposed to “the best they could get”…

 

The original deal was a 3 team deal with dodgers and twins, dodgers get Betts, Price and money, Redsox get Verdugo and Brusdar Graterol from twins and twins get Kenta Maeda,