A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Old Red]

Henry is the one who is mandating the budget and what to spend. Henry is the one who decided that Dombrowski needed to go because Dombrowski probably would have tried to retain Betts at the LA contract. When Henry went on WEEI, what did he complain about? Spending money! CC's contract that he didn't want to sign! What did Henry state was the reason for expensive ticket prices? Ballplayer salaries! Any and all contracts now have to run through that cheapskate unless there is overwhelming outside pressure.

 

Like lagging ticket sales, and sponsorships?

[mvp 78]

Not to mention, let’s not go and reverse position on defense and suddenly start overvaluing it. I kept hearing Evan White was the greatest defensive 1b ever. And after you’ve watched him play, it becomes impossible to differentiate his MLB counterparts from 6yo T-ballers. And then Seattle went out and extended him accordingly.

 

And now he just sort of looks like an overpaid Doug Mientkiewicz out there. I mean, no one was wrong about him being good defensively. But it turns out that when you can’t hit, sometimes even great defense just isn’t enough…

 

Agreed. I hope that Rafaela can be an everyday CFer. I want to watch GG defense out there. Even if his bat isn't amazing (the 20+ HR Law projects or whatever), I'll be happy to watch him.

 

On the recent SoxProspects podcast, they mentioned a good outcome for him would be a 15/15 guy who has an OBP that is enough to stick in MLB. We'd all take that. He's probably the bottom third of the order. Fine. There is the rare chance that his bat turns into something better, but I don't think we can really expect it right now.

 

I am glad that they didn't dump him on the Marlins in a Pablo Lopez deal.

[Old Red]

It has to be Henry. He's the link between all these lowball offers we've seen over the years and the weird dealings. He undervalues the guys that are in house, ends up looking foolish and then has to overpay in some other manner.

 

Right! He overpaid on Price, and probably overpaid on Raffy when they didn’t lock him up last offseason.

[Bobe2]

It has to be Henry. He's the link between all these lowball offers we've seen over the years and the weird dealings. He undervalues the guys that are in house, ends up looking foolish and then has to overpay in some other manner.

 

This article might answer your question

https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/12/19/23516972/moneyball-the-big-short-and-the-ultimate-bait-and-switch-john-henry-chaim-bloom-bogaerts-xander

[moonslav59]

It has to be Henry. He's the link between all these lowball offers we've seen over the years and the weird dealings. He undervalues the guys that are in house, ends up looking foolish and then has to overpay in some other manner.

 

It sure looks that way, although I do think the Betts offer was fair or close enough to fair to not be a "mistake.".

 

I would add that the original Bogy extension he signed seemed like a lowball, too, but he agreed.

 

Personally, I think it was a mistake not to try to lock up Bogey earlier, and even a few months ago, especially if he'd have agreed to not have a no-trade clause. If Bogey would have demanded a no-trade clause, I'd want to know the minimum amount he'd have acc4epted to judge whether it was a "mistake" or not, and even then, it would just be my opinion, before the true judgment occurs..

[mvp 78]

Like lagging ticket sales, and sponsorships?

 

How lagging are the ticket sales these days? You got numbers? Their attendance last year was pretty strong for what it was. 4th in the AL is about where they've been lately ('22, '21, '18, '17, '16). If the overall attendance is down, it's down because it's also down across baseball. They averaged 800 less fans than the Astros, who were coming off a WS loss and heading to a WS win. Seems like a pretty strong attendance record then?

 

They haven't averaged 37,000 fans per game since 2012. Is that Bloom's fault too? Oversaturation by the Red Sox from 04-11?

[mvp 78]

It sure looks that way, although I do think the Betts offer was fair or close enough to fair to not be a "mistake.".

 

I would add that the original Bogy extension he signed seemed like a lowball, too, but he agreed.

 

Personally, I think it was a mistake not to try to lock up Bogey earlier, and even a few months ago, especially if he'd have agreed to not have a no-trade clause. If Bogey would have demanded a no-trade clause, I'd want to know the minimum amount he'd have acc4epted to judge whether it was a "mistake" or not, and even then, it would just be my opinion, before the true judgment occurs..

 

It was a "mistake" because he's no longer wearing the team's laundry.

 

It's also a mistake if you aren't locking up good players early. I hope Bloom's action with Whitlock portends extensions for Bello, Casas and others going forward.

[Old Red]

How lagging are the ticket sales these days? You got numbers? Their attendance last year was pretty strong for what it was. 4th in the AL is about where they've been lately ('22, '21, '18, '17, '16). If the overall attendance is down, it's down because it's also down across baseball. They averaged 800 less fans than the Astros, who were coming off a WS loss and heading to a WS win. Seems like a pretty strong attendance record then?

 

They haven't averaged 37,000 fans per game since 2012. Is that Bloom's fault too? Oversaturation by the Red Sox from 04-11?

 

I don’t have numbers, but only that ticket sales were down from previous years, and sponsorship for TV, and radio were also lagging. Attendance may be down everywhere, but I think coming off a losing last place in the div season, and the gift from JH of raising ticket prices again has more to do with it. Losing Bogey hasn’t helped either.

[moonslav59]

Right! He overpaid on Price, and probably overpaid on Raffy when they didn’t lock him up last offseason.

 

That's probably true on every player that has ever left the Sox for another team or signed an extension.

 

On some players, like ERod, I'm glad we didn't offer an extension a year before he bolted.

[mvp 78]

This article might answer your question

https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/12/19/23516972/moneyball-the-big-short-and-the-ultimate-bait-and-switch-john-henry-chaim-bloom-bogaerts-xander

 

I agree with some of the ideas espoused by the article, but I think it just comes down to Henry not wanting to pay players. I'm not sure he really cares about the next title since he's already got a few of them on the mantle at home. I think the $$$ is the driving factor for him.

[mvp 78]

That's probably true on every player that has ever left the Sox for another team or signed an extension.

 

On some players, like ERod, I'm glad we didn't offer an extension a year before he bolted.

 

Why? He pitched almost as many innings last year as the beloved Rich Hills, Eovaldis, and Wachas of the world.

[moonslav59]

It was a "mistake" because he's no longer wearing the team's laundry.

 

It's also a mistake if you aren't locking up good players early. I hope Bloom's action with Whitlock portends extensions for Bello, Casas and others going forward.

 

Then, it was a "mistake" to not lock up Ellsbury?

[moonslav59]

Why? He pitched almost as many innings last year as the beloved Rich Hills, Eovaldis, and Wachas of the world.

 

So, you wish we extended him?

[a700hitter]

Bloom has painted himself into a corner. He didn’t want to pay top $ for starting pitching and now the only unsigned quality arm is Wacha and he wants 2 years /$30 million. Good job.

[Old Red]

Then, it was a "mistake" to not lock up Ellsbury?

 

As it turned out no, but at the time it was not good watching him go to the Yankees.

[moonslav59]

As it turned out no, but at the time it was not good watching him go to the Yankees.

 

That's all I'm saying.

 

I agree the initial $30M offer was a slap in his face.

 

I agree we should have offered him a reasonable deal, even if just to save face with fans. (We both were pretty close in what we thought the top offer should have been: $170M/6 to $190M/7ish.)

 

The reported $162M/6 offer at the very end was likely just a lame attempt at trying to save face, and we'll always be left to wonder if Bogey would have taken that offer 4, 6 or 12 months ago. It sucks we'll never know. It sucks Bloom didn't make an offer like that, Before. It makes me wonder, if he never felt he was worth that amount, and he was afraid he might have said yes.

 

As to it being a mistake- like Ellsbury, only time will tell.

 

As for the Ellsbury departure, I was thrilled he signed with the Yanks at that cost, but yes, much of Red Sox Nation were upset we didn't re-sign him or extend him much earlier at a lower rate.

 

We'll know more about the Bogey negotiations being botched or not, in a few years, but also, the lingering question about what he would have accepted will always cast a shadow on all the speculation.

[moonslav59]

Bloom has painted himself into a corner. He didn’t want to pay top $ for starting pitching and now the only unsigned quality arm is Wacha and he wants 2 years /$30 million. Good job.

 

He got his guy, apparently, in Kluber.

 

He must trust Whitlock, Bello and Pivetta more than we do.

 

He must believe Sale and or Paxton will be healthy enough.

 

Or, he must have a lot of faith in Mata, Crawford, Winckowski, Walter and Murphy.

 

He certainly has a lot of arms to hope 5 do well, but I prefer quality to quantity when it comes to pitching.

 

[Bobe2]

I agree with some of the ideas espoused by the article, but I think it just comes down to Henry not wanting to pay players. I'm not sure he really cares about the next title since he's already got a few of them on the mantle at home. I think the $$$ is the driving factor for him.

 

I agree money is his thing and I understand what he’s trying to do, he just has the wrong guy doing it

[notin]

It has to be Henry. He's the link between all these lowball offers we've seen over the years and the weird dealings. He undervalues the guys that are in house, ends up looking foolish and then has to overpay in some other manner.

 

Or maybe he thinks new stars = increased interest?

[mvp 78]

Then, it was a "mistake" to not lock up Ellsbury?

 

Are they locking him up before everyone knew he was made up of glass or after?

 

If you extend him prior to 2010, you probably sign him for 6-7 years to buy out the ARB years and it was prior to the monster 2011 year that boosted his FA value. That contract would have been fine. If they are trying to extend him prior to 2013? Dumb.

[mvp 78]

So, you wish we extended him?

 

15 AAV for 5 years is pretty reasonable for what he can do. Sox would have extended him for cheaper.

[mvp 78]

Bloom has painted himself into a corner. He didn’t want to pay top $ for starting pitching and now the only unsigned quality arm is Wacha and he wants 2 years /$30 million. Good job.

 

Wonder why he's still unsigned!

[mvp 78]

Or maybe he thinks new stars = increased interest?

 

He would not be a smart man then. Is that why they went all in with the panda hats?

[dgalehouse]

There are different kinds of fans. And there often is a disconnect between them. On a site like this, there will be some of the more deep thinking , analytic types. They tend to like and identify with a guy like Bloom. They like browsing through the multitude of stats and metrics. They do want the team to win , but they seem to really enjoy the whole process more than the actual ballgame. On the other hand , you have the beer and hot dog fans. They know, like and sometimes get attached to many of the players. They have knowledge and strong opinions too, but little or no interest in fangraphs , MLBTR or the other more geeky sites and the ever growing alphabet soup of metrics. These are often the paying customers, so management would be smart to pay attention to their concerns as well. Losing their favorite players , then seeing ticket and concession prices go up does not sit well. One thing both types of fans should agree on: Finishing in the cellar , 21 games behind a flawed Yankee team is an abomination. That has to change .

[moonslav59]

Are they locking him up before everyone knew he was made up of glass or after?

 

If you extend him prior to 2010, you probably sign him for 6-7 years to buy out the ARB years and it was prior to the monster 2011 year that boosted his FA value. That contract would have been fine. If they are trying to extend him prior to 2013? Dumb.

 

In the context of the conversation about Bogey, yes many want to blame DD for not locking him up for longer or without an opt out for more money, but we are talking about a few months to a year or tow before becoming a FA.

 

If we tried to extend Jacoby right after his 2011 season, my guess is the price would have been high. If after 2012, maybe the cost would have been lower, but either situation would have been a mistake. His 2013 season was pretty good, but had we extended him then, it would have been a mistake.

 

Why take this way off tangent? It's clear expending some promising, home-grown players would be a mistake.

 

The point is, it's hard to know until after some years have passed.

 

I think we all agree, Bogey looked to be worth $160M/6, and it seems like a mistake to have lost him, IF he would have taken that (big if,) but it's just opinion, as of now.

[Nick]

He got his guy, apparently, in Kluber.

 

He must trust Whitlock, Bello and Pivetta more than we do.

 

He must believe Sale and or Paxton will be healthy enough.

 

Or, he must have a lot of faith in Mata, Crawford, Winckowski, Walter and Murphy.

 

He certainly has a lot of arms to hope 5 do well, but I prefer quality to quantity when it comes to pitching.

 

 

Rays don't seem to worry too much. I'm good with a one year deal for Wacha. Might as well see some of our youngsters.

 

This year, we need both Bello and Whitlock to become legitimate starters. I think we have six years of team control for both.

[moonslav59]

There are different kinds of fans. And there often is a disconnect between them. On a site like this, there will be some of the more deep thinking , analytic types. They tend to like and identify with a guy like Bloom. They like browsing through the multitude of stats and metrics. They do want the team to win , but they seem to really enjoy the whole process more than the actual ballgame.

 

I disagree with this assessment. The "whole process more than the actual game?" Totally wrong, and not even close.

 

Many of us fans who like stats and metrics have also played the great game for many years and love it for what it is: the greatest game on the planet. (I've played football and basketball, and was better at each of them than baseball, but baseball is in my heart.

 

As for "identifying" with Bloom, I don't see myself as being a Bloom lover or even admirer. I find myself defending some of the things he's done out of noticing a total or near total lack of context provided in the attacks.

 

To me, Bloom has not done a good job on his major signings, so far, although there haven't been many, and the ones he's made are too recent to judge for sure.

 

To me, Bloom was hired to find decent players at a low cost, and he's not really done all that great in that area, either. Sure, Whitlock, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo and maybe McGuire might be the types we hoped for, but there hasn't been enough, and even some of them may end up just being 1-2 year splash players.

 

To me, I didn't expect a winning team, for a while, so I wouldn't judge any GM harshly based on W-L records after the slash taken to the 2019 team and budget, and the fact that the farm was pretty much desolate for 5 straight years. It's not about loving or admiring Bloom. It's about context. The 2021 season was an accomplishment, under those circumstances. The 2022 season was an under accomplishment, but not by much, when you factor in the context, the injuries and the declining seasons by too many vets- many of whom were not "Bloom guy."

 

To me, any GM who followed DD would have been handed the same priorities, and number one was to build up the farm. To me, we don't know jack about how well Bloom has done here, so no kudos should be given, but on paper, it looks like he's done a p0retty good job- both developing some of DD's prospects, who were not ranked or regarded all that highly as well as adding some quality and quantity to the whole farm system. The jury is still out on this one, but it looks good, to me, so far. (That could all go in the crapper, pretty quickly, if these big promises are broken.)

 

In reality, I don't really have a great opinion on Bloom. I expected better with the "finding gems in the rough" I've mentioned several times. I had hoped he'd have done better with moderate FA signings, but I realize you get what you pay for, and when you can't pay much, you don't get much, either. This winter, he had way more to spend than ever before. It's his flashpoint time. Other than Sale, this is basically his team, now. His legacy may very well hinge on what happens in 2023. I'm cautiously optimistic things will work out, and I hope the farm and younger players shine, this year, as I see them as our best hope for future rings, but the season could just as easily become a disaster.

 

Anyway, I think your characterization of fans who enjoy stats is all wrong, at least to me. Watching a game is heavenly, to me. Not only do I try my hardest to watch every single game by the Sox, I try to never even miss one pitch or every game out of sheer enjoyment- not out of some mathematical formula in my head.

[moonslav59]

Rays don't seem to worry too much. I'm good with a one year deal for Wacha. Might as well see some of our youngsters.

 

This year, we need both Bello and Whitlock to become legitimate starters. I think we have six years of team control for both.

 

I liked Wacha and hoped we'd bring him back. I guess Bloom & Co. thought otherwise. (Not the first time on that, for sure.)

[Old Red]

Matt Barnes to the Marlins for Bleier!

[Bellhorn04]

Matt Barnes to the Marlins for Bleier!

 

Bleier has a career ERA of 3.06.

 

Old Schoolers should be lauding this heist!