A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Seems to me like a sensible strategy for this year.

 

And, the last 3 years, too.

 

Short term experienced, bridge players.

[Old Red]

It's almost all speculation, but with the increase in the amount of promising prospects called up last summer and scheduled to see time in 2023, I'm thinking there is good reason to be optimistic that some will help, perhaps greatly.

 

I'm sure several will fail, but I count 15 recent grads and upcoming prospects that should or may see time, this season:

 

5 Recent Grads: Bello, Wong, Crawford, Wink & Ort

 

3 Second Seasons: Casas, Kelly, German

 

8 First Timers in 2023: Mayer, Rafaela, Mata, Walter, Murphy, EValdez, RHern, Hamilton

 

There is certainly reason for caution and doubt, but I sense you are not very optimistic about the new crop of prospects.

 

I could be wrong, but it looks vastly better than...

 

Houck

Dalbec

Duran

Downs

Chavis

DHern

Shawaryn

BJohnson

Lakins

 

That's only 9 guys from Devers in 2017 to Bello in 2022 (5 years!)

 

Less names.

 

Worse names.

 

I think we have good reason to be cautiously optimistic.

 

On this area, I think Bloom and even DD deserve some credit, but we'll know more, soon enough.

Outside of Bello, and Casas for this year I’m not very optimistic, and if lots of others come up this year, and given a chance it’s probably a bad sign, and a season like last season is underway again. I get prospects are needed, and the Sox wouldn’t have been as bad off now if Duran, and Jeter had worked out.

[harmony]

The Red Sox placed five on the Top 100 prospect list released Wednesday at Baseball America:

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/01/18/mayer-yoshida-headline-red-sox-prospect-baseball-america-list/

[moonslav59]

Outside of Bello, and Casas for this year I’m not very optimistic, and if lots of others come up this year, and given a chance it’s probably a bad sign, and a season like last season is underway again. I get prospects are needed, and the Sox wouldn’t have been as bad off now if Duran, and Jeter had worked out.

 

It goes way beyond just the failures of Downs and Duran. We've seen just Houck be successful from mid 2017 (Devers) to mid 2022 (Bello & Casas), if you even want to call them successes, at this point.

 

It makes the life of any GM extremely difficult to succeed. Saying this is not meant to give props to Bloom or make excuses. It is what it is.

 

While Bello and Casas do seem like the surest bets, this year, I think Kelly and Wong will fill key and important support roles, something we haven't even seen for 5+ years. I really like Mata, Walter and have some middling hopes for German and EValdez, but there is a decent chance none shine in 2023. I am hopeful Crawford or Wink take a step up, but I'm not counting on it.

 

If Mayer or Rafaela get a long look, it will likely be because of injury, a failed season or they are just going bananas on the farm and are screaming for a ML chance.

 

Hamilton, RHern and Ort are long shots, so my list could really be viewed as 13 not 16, with 8-10 having a realistic shot at getting a long enough look to win a key slot on the 26. That is pretty amazing, when you think that's a third of a roster full of veterans with successful seasons under their belt in the last 2-3 years plus Yoshida.

 

9 is over a third of 26.

 

We've had 9 in the past 5 years combined.

 

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox placed five on the Top 100 prospect list released Wednesday at Baseball America:

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/01/18/mayer-yoshida-headline-red-sox-prospect-baseball-america-list/

 

I can understand counting Yoshida, but if you are going to count him, how is he just 87th?

 

2 in the top 30 is pretty impressive with Bello being a very recent grad who would have been near top 30, too.

[Old Red]

It goes way beyond just the failures of Downs and Duran. We've seen just Houck be successful from mid 2017 (Devers) to mid 2022 (Bello & Casas), if you even want to call them successes, at this point.

 

It makes the life of any GM extremely difficult to succeed. Saying this is not meant to give props to Bloom or make excuses. It is what it is.

 

While Bello and Casas do seem like the surest bets, this year, I think Kelly and Wong will fill key and important support roles, something we haven't even seen for 5+ years. I really like Mata, Walter and have some middling hopes for German and EValdez, but there is a decent chance none shine in 2023. I am hopeful Crawford or Wink take a step up, but I'm not counting on it.

 

If Mayer or Rafaela get a long look, it will likely be because of injury, a failed season or they are just going bananas on the farm and are screaming for a ML chance.

 

Hamilton, RHern and Ort are long shots, so my list could really be viewed as 13 not 16, with 8-10 having a realistic shot at getting a long enough look to win a key slot on the 26. That is pretty amazing, when you think that's a third of a roster full of veterans with successful seasons under their belt in the last 2-3 years plus Yoshida.

 

9 is over a third of 26.

 

We've had 9 in the past 5 years combined.

 

I know it goes beyond just the failures of Duran, and Downs. I’ve watched it, and I’ve read the to many to count times you’ve mentioned it on here, but I was just talking about the recent failures in the here, and now. I’m not impressed with Wong, and he might not even get much playing time except In Worcester, or an injury fill in. As for the rest you mentioned meh.

[Bellhorn04]

I can understand counting Yoshida, but if you are going to count him, how is he just 87th?

 

Seems totally arbitrary. Do a bunch of guys vote and then they count up the votes? I don't know what the process is.

[moonslav59]

I know it goes beyond just the failures of Duran, and Downs. I’ve watched it, and I’ve read the to many to count times you’ve mentioned it on here, but I was just talking about the recent failures in the here, and now. I’m not impressed with Wong, and he might not even get much playing time except In Worcester, or an injury fill in. As for the rest you mentioned meh.

 

Certainly, several will end up not impressing, and if we continue the one for nine hit rate we saw with Houck out of the 9 prospects over the last 5 years, "meh" is a good choice of words.

 

I'm one to value quality over quantity, but the odds have gone up with 13-15 prospects now vs 9 over the last 5 years, combined.

 

Casas and Bello already look as promising as Houck. Mata, Walter and Kelly look pretty good. Mayer and Rafaela may be too raw to give us anything in 2023, but it is nice to have super promising kids like them very near to ML ready.

 

Call me an eternal optimist, but I'd rather have 13+ promising prospects than 2-3.

[Bellhorn04]

Things are looking up in the youth movement, no question.

[moonslav59]

Seems totally arbitrary. Do a bunch of guys vote and then they count up the votes? I don't know what the process is.

 

They have a group of people who assign values to various tools, but yes, much has to be subjective or arbitrary.

 

I'd think Yoshida has proven he has some high scores for various tools more than many guys ahead of him, but the upside factor plays into it, too.

[moonslav59]

Things are looking up in the youth movement, no question.

 

It is highly speculative, but I see nothing wrong with being optimistic about having so many highly rated and ranked prospects and more that aren't ranked, yet.

 

Many of us were super high on the farm DD inherited, and many of them never panned out like we hoped for. Fortunately, we traded many of them when their stock was higher than they ever deserved. Maybe, this farm is the same, and we should trade many before they are exposed. DD did the right thing by keeping Devers, and apparently Bello, Casas and Mata, but we'll see.

 

I'm thinking, to have a real chance at sustainable winning, the farm needs to keep a steady infusion of top talent to the big club. I'm hoping we give that plan a chance.

 

[notin]

They have a group of people who assign values to various tools, but yes, much has to be subjective or arbitrary.

 

I'd think Yoshida has proven he has some high scores for various tools more than many guys ahead of him, but the upside factor plays into it, too.

 

 

What works against Yoshida is he’s already 29. None of the other 99 players listed are 2 years into their prime …

[Bellhorn04]

What works against Yoshida is he’s already 29. None of the other 99 players listed are 2 years into their prime …

 

Quite frankly, 29 should keep him off the list altogether. Not that I care that much about it.

[notin]

Quite frankly, 29 should keep him off the list altogether. Not that I care that much about it.

 

Agreed.

 

But this is not exactly a new behavior from BA; they’ve always listed Japanese free agents as prospects regardless of age..

[moonslav59]

What works against Yoshida is he’s already 29. None of the other 99 players listed are 2 years into their prime …

 

None have put up numbers like he has for so long at a level probably better than AAA, either.

[moonslav59]

Agreed.

 

But this is not exactly a new behavior from BA; they’ve always listed Japanese free agents as prospects regardless of age..

 

Not just Japanese.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally, I'm starting to regain some confidence in the Sox front office. Liked the Kluber signing, loved the Raffy extension, liked the Duvall signing. We're not punting and the future is looking up. Now sign Andrus or come up with a legit shortstop some other way...

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

But this is not exactly a new behavior from BA; they’ve always listed Japanese free agents as prospects regardless of age..

 

They can do whatever they want, honestly, it's not an important issue for me.

[moonslav59]

Personally, I'm starting to regain some confidence in the Sox front office. Liked the Kluber signing, loved the Raffy extension, liked the Duvall signing. We're not punting and the future is looking up. Now sign Andrus or come up with a legit shortstop some other way...

 

I know many don't believe it, but we are better than last year, on paper, and likely a lot better.

 

We got worse at SS and now 2B with the Story surgery, but when compared to the 2022 team, we look better or even at just about every other slot on the 26 and maybe even the 40. We even have prospects not on the 40 that may be added during the season that look better than a few players on last year's 40.

 

This is a pretty good line-up:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Kike SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Dugo RF

8. R Arroyo 2B (Maybe we add Andrus, Iggy, Harrison or trade for Wendle or the like.)

9. L McGuire

Bench: R Wong C, R Refsnyder OF, R Dalbec 1B, L Duran, EValdez or Tapia

 

The rotation may not match last year's level, but a bounce back from Sale or Paxton may be all we need to improve:

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Paxton (Houck)

 

Our pen is much better, even without Whitlock:

Closer: Jansen

RP2: Martin

RP3: Houck

RP4: Schreiber

RP5: Barnes

RP6: Rodriguez

RP7: Taylor

RP8: Brasier

 

The ML Ready farm depth is better than last year.

 

C: Alfaro, Hamilton, RHern, Scott

IF: Mayer, Rafaela, EValdez, Hamilton, Goodrum, Koss (weak area)

OF: Rafaela, Tapia, Duran, Allen, Crook, Abreu

SP: Mata, Walter, Santos, Drohan

SP/RP: Crawford, Winckowski, Murphy

RP: Kelly, German, Ort

 

[notin]

Wendle looks less likely now that Miami has dealt Rojas, but he certainly fits my DRS theory as a 2b.

 

I’d still prefer a SS…

[notin]

I know many don't believe it, but we are better than last year, on paper, and likely a lot better.

 

We got worse at SS and now 2B with the Story surgery, but when compared to the 2022 team, we look better or even at just about every other slot on the 26 and maybe even the 40. We even have prospects not on the 40 that may be added during the season that look better than a few players on last year's 40.

 

This is a pretty good line-up:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Kike SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Dugo RF

8. R Arroyo 2B (Maybe we add Andrus, Iggy, Harrison or trade for Wendle or the like.)

9. L McGuire

Bench: R Wong C, R Refsnyder OF, R Dalbec 1B, L Duran, EValdez or Tapia

 

The rotation may not match last year's level, but a bounce back from Sale or Paxton may be all we need to improve:

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Paxton (Houck)

 

Our pen is much better, even without Whitlock:

Closer: Jansen

RP2: Martin

RP3: Houck

RP4: Schreiber

RP5: Barnes

RP6: Rodriguez

RP7: Taylor

RP8: Brasier

 

The ML Ready farm depth is better than last year.

 

C: Alfaro, Hamilton, RHern, Scott

IF: Mayer, Rafaela, EValdez, Hamilton, Goodrum, Koss (weak area)

OF: Rafaela, Tapia, Duran, Allen, Crook, Abreu

SP: Mata, Walter, Santos, Drohan

SP/RP: Crawford, Winckowski, Murphy

RP: Kelly, German, Ort

 

 

And Wyatt Mills

[harmony]

I know many don't believe it, but we are better than last year, on paper, and likely a lot better.

 

We got worse at SS and now 2B with the Story surgery, but when compared to the 2022 team, we look better or even at just about every other slot on the 26 and maybe even the 40. We even have prospects not on the 40 that may be added during the season that look better than a few players on last year's 40.

 

This is a pretty good line-up:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Kike SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Dugo RF

8. R Arroyo 2B (Maybe we add Andrus, Iggy, Harrison or trade for Wendle or the like.)

9. L McGuire

Bench: R Wong C, R Refsnyder OF, R Dalbec 1B, L Duran, EValdez or Tapia

 

The rotation may not match last year's level, but a bounce back from Sale or Paxton may be all we need to improve:

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Paxton (Houck)

 

Our pen is much better, even without Whitlock:

Closer: Jansen

RP2: Martin

RP3: Houck

RP4: Schreiber

RP5: Barnes

RP6: Rodriguez

RP7: Taylor

RP8: Brasier

 

The ML Ready farm depth is better than last year.

 

C: Alfaro, Hamilton, RHern, Scott

IF: Mayer, Rafaela, EValdez, Hamilton, Goodrum, Koss (weak area)

OF: Rafaela, Tapia, Duran, Allen, Crook, Abreu

SP: Mata, Walter, Santos, Drohan

SP/RP: Crawford, Winckowski, Murphy

RP: Kelly, German, Ort

 

The glass is half full.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Two Red Sox in MLB.com rankings for third base: Machado, Ramirez, Riley, Devers, Arenado, Bregman, Turner, Muncy, Diaz, DJ.

 

I'll take Arenado and Bregman ahead of Machado, but Raffy would be the one I'd build a team around right now...

 

Two Red Sox are also in the rankings for first base prospects, including Casas at #1 and Kavadas at #10. The Rays, A's and Rockies also have two in the top 10 (1B/DH prospects?).

[moonslav59]

And Wyatt Mills

 

Yes, who has an option, and so may begin in AAA.

[moonslav59]

The glass is half full.

 

You honestly think last year's line-up and pen were better?

 

.661 RF

.671 CF

.683 1B

.694 C

.694 LF

 

.724 2B

.763 DH

 

.815 SS

.856 3B

 

Yes, we basically lost 2 FT SP'ers with 26 GS from Hill, 23 from Wacha and 20 from Nate, but what the half empty guys fail to see is that we added Kluber, and more from Whitlock & Bello and also have the 3rd SP'er to replace, which should be very easy to improve upon:

14 Winckowski 5.89

12 Crawford 5.47

5 Seabold 11.29

3 Davis 5.47

That's 34 awful starts and Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Bello, Whitlock and maybe Houck, Mata and Walter to fill up that half of the glass.

 

BTW, I'm only saying we should significantly improve on a last place team and NOT winning any WS ring.

[Hugh2]

Agreed.

 

But this is not exactly a new behavior from BA; they’ve always listed Japanese free agents as prospects regardless of age..

 

Unfortunately I think they are the only one. If Yoshida was a top 100 on another outlet the Sox would be eligible for draft picks depending on how well Yoshida does in the ROY voting.

 

Oh well, they still have Casas.

[mvp 78]

If Mayer or Rafaela get a long look, it will likely be because of injury, a failed season or they are just going bananas on the farm and are screaming for a ML chance.

 

 

The only way they are being called up is if they are ready. Bloom will use the other "prospects" or the waiver wire if there's an injury before he calls those two up.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately I think they are the only one. If Yoshida was a top 100 on another outlet the Sox would be eligible for draft picks depending on how well Yoshida does in the ROY voting.

 

Oh well, they still have Casas.

 

Too bad Bello graduated by a hair.

[moonslav59]

The only way they are being called up is if they are ready. Bloom will use the other "prospects" or the waiver wire if there's an injury before he calls those two up.

 

Agreed, and that would likely mean they were going "bananas."

[Old Red]

You honestly think last year's line-up and pen were better?

 

.661 RF

.671 CF

.683 1B

.694 C

.694 LF

 

.724 2B

.763 DH

 

.815 SS

.856 3B

 

Yes, we basically lost 2 FT SP'ers with 26 GS from Hill, 23 from Wacha and 20 from Nate, but what the half empty guys fail to see is that we added Kluber, and more from Whitlock & Bello and also have the 3rd SP'er to replace, which should be very easy to improve upon:

14 Winckowski 5.89

12 Crawford 5.47

5 Seabold 11.29

3 Davis 5.47

That's 34 awful starts and Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Bello, Whitlock and maybe Houck, Mata and Walter to fill up that half of the glass.

 

BTW, I'm only saying we should significantly improve on a last place team and NOT winning any WS ring.

On paper I believe last year’s lineup was better to start the season. The BP looks to be improved, and the starting rotation has just as many questions as last years. How it works out is another story, and TBD.