A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Today is the deadline day for both clubs and players to submit figures to MLB for salary arbitration.

 

Does this mean we are pretty much locked into Brasier being on our opening day roster, barring a trade?

 

Yes.

[moonslav59]

Yes.

 

My brain hurts just thinking about this.

[moonslav59]

A simple look at Bloom's team vs what he inherited:

 

https://theathletic.com/3992437/2022/12/12/red-sox-roster-changes-bloom/

[moonslav59]

MLBTR....

 

The 2023 signing period for international free agency is set to begin on Sunday, January 15th. This period, which has been moved to January in recent seasons after years of July signing periods, gives all 30 clubs the opportunity to inject their farm systems with fresh talent. While these players are all almost assuredly several years away from impacting the major leagues, many of the biggest superstars of today’s game were acquired by their clubs through the IFA signing process. Most top prospects in a given IFA class likely unofficially made handshake agreements with clubs long before the official opening of their IFA signing period, so most of these top prospects already have publicly available expected landing spots. MLB and the MLBPA tried to come to an agreement on an international draft this summer following CBA negotiations but were unable to do so, leaving the current system in place for the foreseeable future.

[Old Red]

And like I keep asking why do we have to keep talking, or settling on skimping? Ref Man, Duran, and Arroyo or the likes. Bloom needs to go out, and make some trades that I kept hearing he was going to do.

[Bellhorn04]

A simple look at Bloom's team vs what he inherited:

 

https://theathletic.com/3992437/2022/12/12/red-sox-roster-changes-bloom/

 

Doesn't get the blood moving much, does it.

[Bellhorn04]

My brain hurts just thinking about this.

 

I don't know why anyone experiences anguish about Brasier. He's just a cheap and disposable bullpen arm.

 

We have much larger things to be concerned about.

[notin]

I don't know why anyone experiences anguish about Brasier. He's just a cheap and disposable bullpen arm.

 

We have much larger things to be concerned about.

 

That players such as Thad Ward and Darwinzon Hernandez, and maybe a few other were let go while he stayed out…

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure there will be more additions to the 26 and 40 man rosters, but here's how I see it now:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Kike SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. L Verdugo RF

7. R Refsnyder CF

8. L McGuire

9. R Arroyo 2B

Bench: Wong C, EValdez 2B/1B, Duran OF, Dalbec 1B

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Kluber

SP3 Whitlock

SP4 Bello

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Paxton

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Houck

RP4 Schreiber

RP5 Barnes

RP6 J Rodriguez

RP7 Brasier

 

Other 14 on the 40:

Story to 60 day IL

Hamilton

Rafaela

Abreu

Crawford

Winckowski

Mata

Walter

Murphy

Mills

Taylor

Kelly

German

Ort

 

[moonslav59]

I don't know why anyone experiences anguish about Brasier. He's just a cheap and disposable bullpen arm.

 

We have much larger things to be concerned about.

 

It would not be an issue for me, if he had options and was on the 40. He's interchangeable, but on the 26 forces Mills, kelly, German, Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter, Murphy and others to AAA, when maybe all are better.

 

True, it's not a real big deal, but what else can we talk about?

[moonslav59]

Doesn't get the blood moving much, does it.

 

That's what a limited spending budget and a farm that produces just Houck from mid 2017 to mid 2022 will do.

[Bellhorn04]

It would not be an issue for me, if he had options and was on the 40. He's interchangeable, but on the 26 forces Mills, kelly, German, Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter, Murphy and others to AAA, when maybe all are better.

 

True, it's not a real big deal, but what else can we talk about?

 

The metrics have been given for why Brasier is still around.

 

It's not a big deal though, as you say, just something to jabber about while waiting for the Tortoise's next move.

[Bellhorn04]

That's what a limited spending budget and a farm that produces just Houck from mid 2017 to mid 2022 will do.

 

And the one big acquisition, Story, being a bust.

[moonslav59]

The metrics have been given for why Brasier is still around.

 

It's not a big deal though, as you say, just something to jabber about while waiting for the Tortoise's next move.

 

Well, we can pretty sure 2-3 of these guys start the year on the IL, so maybe Brasier is not keeping anyone too promising down:

 

Sale

Paxton

Taylor

 

We also know all the more deserving pitchers I mentioned will get ample opportunities to prove they deserve and can keep a slot, once they earn one, so in that sense, it matters little. I guess I'm just antsy about giving these younger guys as chance right out of the gate.

 

No real biggie.

[moonslav59]

And the one big acquisition, Story, being a bust.

 

So far, yes, and a big one!

 

All of the biggest contracts, except Sale's contract are on Bloom, now.

 

29.1 x 10 Devers

25.6 x 2 Sale

18.0 x 5 Yoshida

16.0 x 2 Jansen

10.9 x 2 Turner (including option)

10.0 x 1 Kike

10.0 x 1 Kluber (+ option)

9.38 x 1 Barnes (+ option)

7.50 x 2 Martin

 

Also, we are seeing more deals longer than 1 year than any other season under Bloom.

 

[mvp 78]

With Kike maybe playing IF, are we sure Dugo starts RF?

 

Could it be:

LF Yoshida

CF Dugo

RF Refsnyder/Duran

 

How many tv's do you want Sale to break this season?

[mvp 78]

That players such as Thad Ward and Darwinzon Hernandez, and maybe a few other were let go while he stayed out…

 

Darwinzon's best season was comparable to what Jake Diekman provided last year. He wasn't improving in AAA. He wasn't improving in winter ball. He hasn't been under 6 BB/9 since A+.

 

Thaddeus is a legit complaint.

[moonslav59]

How many tv's do you want Sale to break this season?

 

I don't like this, but it's better than Duran starting anywhere.

 

I'd actually prefer Dugo in RF and Ref in CF, if forced to choose.

 

The question was, are we certain Dugo is our starting RF'er?

[mvp 78]

It would not be an issue for me, if he had options and was on the 40. He's interchangeable, but on the 26 forces Mills, kelly, German, Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter, Murphy and others to AAA, when maybe all are better.

 

True, it's not a real big deal, but what else can we talk about?

 

German is not better right now and has no secondary pitches.

Walter needs time and has barely pitching in AAA as he missed the second half with a significant injury.

Wink could use time in the pen to ramp up his arm.

Murphy ended his season on a sour note in AAA with a bloated ERA and is not close to being ready.

Wyatt Mills is all of a sudden better than Brasier? How? K's less guys. BB's more guys. He's a project right now.

Mata is still slotted as a starter for now.

Kelly and Crawford will probably make the Opening Day roster along with Brasier.

[mvp 78]

I don't like this, but it's better than Duran starting anywhere.

 

I'd actually prefer Dugo in RF and Ref in CF, if forced to choose.

 

The question was, are we certain Dugo is our starting RF'er?

 

Dugo CF '21: -7 DRS in 337 Innings

Duran CF '22: -9 DRS in 416 Innings

 

They are basically the same defender in CF. Dugo was slow in '21, but was even slower in '22 per Statcast. His defensive number could be even worse than Duran's now.

[moonslav59]

Dugo CF '21: -7 DRS in 337 Innings

Duran CF '22: -9 DRS in 416 Innings

 

They are basically the same defender in CF. Dugo was slow in '21, but was even slower in '22 per Statcast. His defensive number could be even worse than Duran's now.

 

Are you certain Dugo is the starting RF'er?

[moonslav59]

German is not better right now and has no secondary pitches.

Walter needs time and has barely pitching in AAA as he missed the second half with a significant injury.

Wink could use time in the pen to ramp up his arm.

Murphy ended his season on a sour note in AAA with a bloated ERA and is not close to being ready.

Wyatt Mills is all of a sudden better than Brasier? How? K's less guys. BB's more guys. He's a project right now.

Mata is still slotted as a starter for now.

Kelly and Crawford will probably make the Opening Day roster along with Brasier.

 

I'll take all of these guys over Brasier, right now, in the pen over Brasier. Some are close calls, granted, and all have options, making it easier to move 'em around, if needed.

 

Would you place Kelly & Crawford above Brasier, if it came to choosing one?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Friday the 13th talksox debate on the '23 Red Sox outfield:

 

Looks like we'll be ok, as long as we have Moe and Larry as our corner outfielders.

 

But who do we want to play center: Curly or Shemp?

[mvp 78]

Are you certain Dugo is the starting RF'er?

 

I'm not certain he's on this team in April.

[dgalehouse]

Too much interest here about Ryan Brasier. He is just your basic veteran ham and egger with a career 4 plus ERA. Not the worst reliever in the league. He can have a place in the bullpen , but don't count on him too much. Not a big deal either way.

[notin]

I'm not certain he's on this team in April.

 

Certainly possible. But I think he will be…

[notin]

Friday the 13th talksox debate on the '23 Red Sox outfield:

 

Looks like we'll be ok, as long as we have Moe and Larry as our corner outfielders.

 

But who do we want to play center: Curly or Shemp?

 

Curly!!! Is this even a question?

[mvp 78]

I'll take all of these guys over Brasier, right now, in the pen over Brasier. Some are close calls, granted, and all have options, making it easier to move 'em around, if needed.

 

Would you place Kelly & Crawford above Brasier, if it came to choosing one?

 

Kelly doesn't have a good walk rate. His k rate didn't play up at the MLB level last season. Until it does, that walk rate keeps him behind Brasier. He still had a 4 ERA.

 

Crawford didn't pitch all that great out of the pen. His walk rate was really bad out there.

 

Neither guy has anything greater than a middle relief ceiling in the pen. I think they are about in the same tier of pitcher. Brasier is much more expensive though.

[mvp 78]

Friday the 13th talksox debate on the '23 Red Sox outfield:

 

Looks like we'll be ok, as long as we have Moe and Larry as our corner outfielders.

 

But who do we want to play center: Curly or Shemp?

 

Shemp's the OG so he gets the call.

[Old Red]

Raffy Devers, and the ????????? Sounds like a winning combination to me.