A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[oldtimer]

The cards are on the table for Devers who is looking for $300 Mil over a 10 year period. Are the Sox willing to go that high? Some have opined that Devers might go anyways unless Bogaerts is signed. So far the Sox have not shown a willingness to meet Devers view of his worth. How would you feel if Devers winds up on the hated Yankees?

[notin]

It takes a combination of fiscal responsibility, a strong farm system and luck. The Sox have been a mixed bag in that regard.

 

Don’t you think that’s why Bloom was hired?

 

Build a competitive team, get in the postseason, and do so without going over the limit?

 

Tampa has a dirt poor payroll but has made the postseason 4 years in a row…

[moonslav59]

Actually, scratch that, it's whatever their revenue share refund would have been. If they stay over for 3 years they become a disqualified market and 1/2 the money goes back into the pool and 1/2 goes to a players benefits fund.

 

I think the big take away is there are very harsh penalties for staying over the line for a prolonged period of time. It's very narrow-sighted and naive to just sit around and say "well it ain't my money". If we are going to have intellectual, realistic, and rational baseball conversations moving forward then it should be under the assumption that the Boston Red Sox are going to go under the luxury tax line either this off-season or the next.

 

Well said, you damn Bloom apologist!

[mvp 78]

Don’t you think that’s why Bloom was hired?

 

Build a competitive team, get in the postseason, and do so without going over the limit?

 

Tampa has a dirt poor payroll but has made the postseason 4 years in a row…

 

If he was trying to get in the postseason without going over the limit, going over the limit by 4M in 2022 is indefensible IMO. If Bloom was hired to stay under, why go over but just barely? It makes no sense.

 

If he didn't sign James Paxton, the easily can get under the threshold at the deadline. If he didn't take on JBJ's salary, the threshold isn't a concern at all. Seems like the threshold wasn't priority #1.

 

Tampa has the history of outperforming, Boston doesn't. Maybe he can shove it in the doubters faces in 2023, but the "luck" factor could also just derail the whole process.

[moonslav59]

Easiest way to beat it is to simply not go over ever. It does make it more difficult to win the title, but with the extra wild card, it’sa little easier to get into the postseason than it was in years past…

 

Or, just pick a single season, when you feel your hopes are highest.

[notin]

If he was trying to get in the postseason without going over the limit, going over the limit by 4M in 2022 is indefensible IMO. If Bloom was hired to stay under, why go over but just barely? It makes no sense.

 

If he didn't sign James Paxton, the easily can get under the threshold at the deadline. If he didn't take on JBJ's salary, the threshold isn't a concern at all. Seems like the threshold wasn't priority #1.

 

Tampa has the history of outperforming, Boston doesn't. Maybe he can shove it in the doubters faces in 2023, but the "luck" factor could also just derail the whole process.

 

 

I think there was some payroll leeway until the farm was in place. The Sox did go over, but half of the payroll was heavily paid aging contracts Bloom inherited…

[moonslav59]

If he was trying to get in the postseason without going over the limit, going over the limit by 4M in 2022 is indefensible IMO. If Bloom was hired to stay under, why go over but just barely? It makes no sense.

 

If he didn't sign James Paxton, the easily can get under the threshold at the deadline. If he didn't take on JBJ's salary, the threshold isn't a concern at all. Seems like the threshold wasn't priority #1.

 

Tampa has the history of outperforming, Boston doesn't. Maybe he can shove it in the doubters faces in 2023, but the "luck" factor could also just derail the whole process.

 

What I find interesting is the biggest complaint many of us have on Bloom is going over the line in in 2022 while not even coming close to being competitive, not to mention highly competitive, but those who complain the most about Bloom do not bring this part up very much. Perhaps that is linked to their idea that he should be spending more, despite it not really being an option for him..

 

If the budget is a concern, going over should only occur when the team is highly competitive. I understand, management might have felt we could have been highly competitive, after we signed Story, but once it became clear we were not, Bloom & Co. should have traded away enough salary to get under.

[moonslav59]

I think there was some payroll leeway until the farm was in place. The Sox did go over, but half of the payroll was heavily paid aging contracts Bloom inherited…

 

While true, we had a golden opportunity to get under at the deadline and chose not to. That is on Bloom and upper management.

 

I understand the pressure to appear to be staying competitive for the fans and consumers, but they just made that more difficult for 2023 and 2014 by not getting under the line.

 

The hear and now won over the future at the deadline, while it seemed obvious, to me anyway, this was not "the year."

[notin]

While true, we had a golden opportunity to get under at the deadline and chose not to. That is on Bloom and upper management.

 

I understand the pressure to appear to be staying competitive for the fans and consumers, but they just made that more difficult for 2023 and 2014 by not getting under the line.

 

The hear and now won over the future at the deadline, while it seemed obvious, to me anyway, this was not "the year."

 

 

I know.

 

But maybe mvp was right (I didn’t type that) and they prioritized ratings and keeping a semi-watchable team…

[mvp 78]

I think there was some payroll leeway until the farm was in place. The Sox did go over, but half of the payroll was heavily paid aging contracts Bloom inherited…

 

Is the farm in place now? I think we are closer. Maybe 2024/2025? Is that when they can truly have a better handle on finances and farm additions? Luck will never be something they can count on, though signing injured and/or aging veterans isn't necessarily the blueprint for a healthy starting rotation. Hopefully Bloom learned from his 2022 mistakes.

[mvp 78]

What I find interesting is the biggest complaint many of us have on Bloom is going over the line in in 2022 while not even coming close to being competitive, not to mention highly competitive, but those who complain the most about Bloom do not bring this part up very much. Perhaps that is linked to their idea that he should be spending more, despite it not really being an option for him..

 

If the budget is a concern, going over should only occur when the team is highly competitive. I understand, management might have felt we could have been highly competitive, after we signed Story, but once it became clear we were not, Bloom & Co. should have traded away enough salary to get under.

 

They were on the outside looking in with injured starting pitchers. It was time to get under the cap IMO.

[mvp 78]

I know.

 

But maybe mvp was right (I didn’t type that) and they prioritized ratings and keeping a semi-watchable team…

 

I don't necessarily know if it was ratings or concessions or ticket sales or if they just thought "we'll get under pretty easily in one of the next two years anyway." I'm sure they had long conversations about it and weren't shocked when they went over. My guess it was a lot of 2014, 2015 and 2020 really sucked for this fanbase and our budget, let's try to at least make this team be more like 2010 and just reset soon. Personally, I think it's just easier to stay under whenever you can. Then you have the flexibility to go over in additional future years.

[notin]

Is the farm in place now? I think we are closer. Maybe 2024/2025? Is that when they can truly have a better handle on finances and farm additions? Luck will never be something they can count on, though signing injured and/or aging veterans isn't necessarily the blueprint for a healthy starting rotation. Hopefully Bloom learned from his 2022 mistakes.

 

 

I think they will keep going over until they think the farm is ready.

 

They shouldn’t hold off building a good team while waiting on the farm. Don’t let the farm influence being competitive. That makes no sense. But it’s probably ok to let it influence payroll…

[notin]

I don't necessarily know if it was ratings or concessions or ticket sales or if they just thought "we'll get under pretty easily in one of the next two years anyway." I'm sure they had long conversations about it and weren't shocked when they went over. My guess it was a lot of 2014, 2015 and 2020 really sucked for this fanbase and our budget, let's try to at least make this team be more like 2010 and just reset soon. Personally, I think it's just easier to stay under whenever you can. Then you have the flexibility to go over in additional future years.

 

 

I didn’t expect you to know whether or not it was the case. The bottom line is it’s another consideration a lot of us never really thought of (or at least vocalized on this forum).

 

We’re all probably right less often than we realize. So being aware of other alternatives becomes a necessity…

[harmony]

The consensus is Paxton takes $4M?

James Paxton, who turns 34 years old next weekend, has pitched 21.2 innings over the last three MLB seasons (20.1 in 2020, 1.1 in 2021 and 0 in 2022)*

 

As a point of reference, the durable Rick Porcello, who is the same age as the fragile Paxton, has pitched 59 MLB innings over that period.

 

From a strictly financial standpoint, Paxton should exercise a $4 million player option. However, Paxton may prefer to try out for a contender.

* this year in the rookie-level Florida Complex League, Paxton recorded two outs before exiting with a lat injury

Edited October 28, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

James Paxton, who turns 34 years old next weekend, has pitched 21.2 innings over the last three MLB seasons (20.1 in 2020, 1.1 in 2021 and 0 in 2022)*

 

As a point of reference, the durable Rick Porcello, who is the same age as the fragile Paxton, has pitched 59 MLB innings over that period.

 

From a strictly financial standpoint, Paxton should exercise a $4 million player option. However, Paxton may prefer to try out for a contender.

* this year in the rookie-level Florida Complex League, Paxton recorded two out before exiting with a lat injury

 

We gave him $10M after a similar previous record. I think he'd get more than $4M/1 on the FA market, assuming he is healthy, now.

[notin]

James Paxton, who turns 34 years old next weekend, has pitched 21.2 innings over the last three MLB seasons (20.1 in 2020, 1.1 in 2021 and 0 in 2022)*

 

As a point of reference, the durable Rick Porcello, who is the same age as the fragile Paxton, has pitched 59 MLB innings over that period.

 

From a strictly financial standpoint, Paxton should exercise a $4 million player option. However, Paxton may prefer to try out for a contender.

* this year in the rookie-level Florida Complex League, Paxton recorded two out before exiting with a lat injury

 

So you think he’d prefer a team that already has 5 pitchers in the rotation?

 

I would be willing to bet Paxton has prioritized pitching and getting the ball every fifth day over having a shot at a title.

 

Boston might not be where he ends up, but they certainly are in a position to give him more opportunities n than most other teams…

[mvp 78]

James Paxton, who turns 34 years old next weekend, has pitched 21.2 innings over the last three MLB seasons (20.1 in 2020, 1.1 in 2021 and 0 in 2022)*

 

As a point of reference, the durable Rick Porcello, who is the same age as the fragile Paxton, has pitched 59 MLB innings over that period.

 

From a strictly financial standpoint, Paxton should exercise a $4 million player option. However, Paxton may prefer to try out for a contender.

* this year in the rookie-level Florida Complex League, Paxton recorded two out before exiting with a lat injury

 

The durable Rick Porcello hasn't had an MLB contract since 2020, so I don't know if that's necessarily fair. If 2020 was a full season, he probably throws another 170 innings. If he was given a shot at a contract with any MLB team, he probably keeps piling up the injuries. He's not out because he's hurt.

[mvp 78]

So you think he’d prefer a team that already has 5 pitchers in the rotation?

 

I would be willing to bet Paxton has prioritized pitching and getting the ball every fifth day over having a shot at a title.

 

Boston might not be where he ends up, but they certainly are in a position to give him more opportunities n than most other teams…

 

At Paxton's age, he probably goes wherever the money is the highest.

[harmony]

So you think he’d prefer a team that already has 5 pitchers in the rotation?

 

I would be willing to bet Paxton has prioritized pitching and getting the ball every fifth day over having a shot at a title.

 

Boston might not be where he ends up, but they certainly are in a position to give him more opportunities n than most other teams…

No argument with that point.

[moonslav59]

At Paxton's age, he probably goes wherever the money is the highest.

 

...and he will likely get more than $4M/1.

[Hugh2]

I can't find the source anymore so I don't remember how reliable it is. But I was hearing rumors there is a lot of interest in Paxtons camp to exercise his 4 million option.

[notin]

At Paxton's age, he probably goes wherever the money is the highest.

 

Money and opportunity. The man only has so many games left, and probably prefers he not spend too many of them on the bench.

 

As for which is more important, only Paxton himself really knows.

 

(Although the MLBPA does have an opinion on which one is more important.)

[notin]

I can't find the source anymore so I don't remember how reliable it is. But I was hearing rumors there is a lot of interest in Paxtons camp to exercise his 4 million option.

 

The source right now is every article on the subject. The media feels it’s a no-brainer. Not sure if any of them have spoken with Paxton or they all just making assumptions…

[moonslav59]

I can't find the source anymore so I don't remember how reliable it is. But I was hearing rumors there is a lot of interest in Paxtons camp to exercise his 4 million option.

 

I'd be surprised, but I'd also feel like he'd be a promising player for only $4M. We paid $10M for Richards, 2 years ago and $6M for Paxton, last year (with the $4M option counting on the 2022 tax line.)

 

I'm not confident he'll produce for us, but I think it's a good gamble at that low cost. We signed Diekman to $8M/2. This looks better, to me.

[harmony]

...and he will likely get more than $4M/1.

Last offseason righthander Chris Archer, who is the same age as James Paxton, landed a one-year, $3.5 million contract. Archer had pitched only 19.1 MLB innings over the two previous seasons.

 

Archer had posted a career fWAR of 20.2 (bWAR 13.6) while Paxton has a career fWAR of 17.4 (bWAR 12.6).

 

Other comparable one-year contracts for starting pitchers last offseason:*

 

Drew Smyly $4.25 million

Martin Perez $4 million

Rich Hill $5 million

Dylan Bundy $5 million

* according to MLB Trade Rumors Transaction Tracker: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/transactiontracker

[harmony]

Money and opportunity. The man only has so many games left, and probably prefers he not spend too many of them on the bench.

 

As for which is more important, only Paxton himself really knows.

 

(Although the MLBPA does have an opinion on which one is more important.)

FWIW James Paxton has expressed his support for the MLBPA:

 

[moonslav59]

Last offseason righthander Chris Archer, who is the same age as James Paxton, landed a one-year, $3.5 million contract. Archer had pitched only 19.1 MLB innings over the two previous seasons.

 

Archer had posted a career fWAR of 20.2 (bWAR 13.6) while Paxton has a career fWAR of 17.4 (bWAR 12.6).

 

Other comparable one-year contracts for starting pitchers last offseason:*

 

Drew Smyly $4.25 million

Martin Perez $4 million

Rich Hill $5 million

Dylan Bundy $5 million

* according to MLB Trade Rumors Transaction Tracker: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/transactiontracker

 

Add Paxton at $10M/1 to that list.

Richards $9M

Kluber $8M

[harmony]

Add Paxton at $10M/1 to that list.

Idiom: Throw good money after bad.

 

The Seattle Mariners in 2021 paid James Paxton $8.25 million to pitch 1.1 innings at a 6.75 ERA.

 

The Boston Red Sox turned around and guaranteed Paxton $10 million in 2022 when the lefthander pitched no MLB innings.

 

Paxton remains well-regarded in Seattle as a former MLB player but his active days may be over.

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Idiom: Throw good money after bad.

 

I would not be thrilled having Paxton back, but at $4M/1, I think it's a decent low-risk gamble.

 

Martin Perez was a good gamble. Archer & Hill, too.

 

Were they "good money after bad?"

 

BTW, I'd be just as happy, if paxton declines the deal and moves on.