A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

We had a Carvel cake in the freezer at my old house when our fridge died. We put it on the front porch for a few hours as it was late November and thought the cake would last a little while. The damn thing stained the s*** out of the concrete and it never came off even after it was power washed. This was in MA not FL obviously.

 

Carvel cakes are made from space age polymers

[notin]

If we are looking for a DH and a boost in team OBP, what about Michael Brantley?

 

Getting older but he’d be a good 1-2 year solution. Might even solve the Sox leadoff problems…

[moonslav59]

Getting older but he’d be a good 1-2 year solution. Might even solve the Sox leadoff problems…

 

Certainly just a very short term idea, but not a bad one.

[moonslav59]

Getting older but he’d be a good 1-2 year solution. Might even solve the Sox leadoff problems…

 

I think it would have to be an either or on Brantley and Beni. We'd be back to 3 lefty left fielders and reluctantly moving Dugo to RF.

[harmony]

I think it would have to be an either or on Brantley and Beni. We'd be back to 3 lefty left fielders and reluctantly moving Dugo to RF.

What if the choice for a high OBP outfielder was between 35-year-old Michael Brantley at a projected two-year, $16 million contract or 28-year-old Andrew Benintendi at a projected six-year, $104 million contract?

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/market-value/

 

Would Brantley and Benintendi be better options than a trade for one year of 29-year-old lefthand-hitting outfielder Jesse Winker with a 2023 salary of $8.25 million?

[Hugh2]

The last thing this team should be doing is spending money on a DH. This is not the year or the team to be allocating resources in that direction.

[Hugh2]

Just another left fielder on a team that needs CF/RF. Just go out and pay Nimmo, he'd be a better lead off hitter and fill an actual hole on this team.

[notin]

What if the choice for a high OBP outfielder was between 35-year-old Michael Brantley at a projected two-year, $16 million contract or 28-year-old Andrew Benintendi at a projected six-year, $104 million contract?

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/market-value/

 

Would Brantley and Benintendi be better options than a trade for one year of 29-year-old lefthand-hitting outfielder Jesse Winker with a 2023 salary of $8.25 million?

 

Seriously?

[notin]

The last thing this team should be doing is spending money on a DH. This is not the year or the team to be allocating resources in that direction.

 

Why not? They play 162 games this year.

 

They have some holes but free agency isn’t going to give as many solutions as fans want, especially if they avoid any player(s) that receive a QO. If that’s the case, you have to take the holes free agency gives you, which will likely be bullpen and DH and maybe 1or 2 others…

Edited October 26, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

Just another left fielder on a team that needs CF/RF. Just go out and pay Nimmo, he'd be a better lead off hitter and fill an actual hole on this team.

That's my plan A. Plan B might be to trade for a RF'er.

 

I am not for spending big at DH, even if JH opens his wallet more than I expect him to do.

 

[moonslav59]

Seriously?

 

Full circle.

[notin]

Full circle.

 

He’s due to ask about Flexen again soon…

[Hugh2]

Why not? They play 162 games this year.

 

They have some holes but free agency isn’t going to give as many solutions as fans want, especially if they avoid any player(s) that receive a QO. If that’s the case, you have to take the holes free agency gives you, which will likely be bullpen and DH and maybe 1or 2 others…

 

Why not? because if the Sox have any money left over to spend on a DH I think the team gets better by spending it on pitching instead. It would be a mismanagement of resources to spend money on an LFer who can DH. One of our biggest issues this year was we had all left fielders and no CF/RF. Sure, he'd be a little better with the bat but why not get better offensively and get a guy who can field RF/CF???? Nimmo? I'd rather do that and spend on Bogaerts/Pitching and rotate the DH, or give it to whoever can hit with who is left over.

[moonslav59]

Why not? because if the Sox have any money left over to spend on a DH I think the team gets better by spending it on pitching instead. It would be a mismanagement of resources to spend money on an LFer who can DH. One of our biggest issues this year was we had all left fielders and no CF/RF. Sure, he'd be a little better with the bat but why not get better offensively and get a guy who can field RF/CF???? Nimmo? I'd rather do that and spend on Bogaerts/Pitching and rotate the DH, or give it to whoever can hit with who is left over.

 

I agree, and even if JH decides to spend way over the tax line, I'd still rather see all of it go towards pitching, RF, SS and a Devers extension.

[notin]

Why not? because if the Sox have any money left over to spend on a DH I think the team gets better by spending it on pitching instead. It would be a mismanagement of resources to spend money on an LFer who can DH. One of our biggest issues this year was we had all left fielders and no CF/RF. Sure, he'd be a little better with the bat but why not get better offensively and get a guy who can field RF/CF???? Nimmo? I'd rather do that and spend on Bogaerts/Pitching and rotate the DH, or give it to whoever can hit with who is left over.

 

I have touting Nimmo longer than anyone. I do doubt the Sox target him because he is very likely to get a QO, and I think the Sox limit QO free agents to anyone worth surrendering two draft picks for, if anyone at all. (Bogaets being the obvious exception as he won’t cost them any draft picks.). Is Nimmo a player worth giving up two draft picks for? I would be surprised if they ranked him that way. But they might. Not sure.

 

The non-QO pitching market is probably headlined by Bassitt, Syndergaard (who is ineligible due to mid-season trade), and Wacha. Eovaldi is s borderline QO candidate, but it doesn’t matter, since, like Bogaets, he can be re-signed.

 

If the Sox avoid QO players altogether, bullpen should be the big focus. The only pitcher likely to get one is Diaz. So pitchers like Rafael Montero and Michael Fulmer make for great targets.

 

And once Bogaerts opts out, the Sox have only $80mill committed for 2023 before arbitration raises. So figure roughly $90-100mill after once Devers, Pivetta and Verdugo cases are settled.

 

So depending on the budget, they will have money. But the question is - who should they spend it on? If they can get a DH for $8-12 mill AAV, that still leaves sufficient budget to grab a SP and 2-3 RPs. The rotation as of today figures to have Pivetta, Sale, Paxton (who is expected to exercise his $4mill player option), and Bello. Sale and Paxtton are certainly iffy, but their existence also can’t be ignored. IMO the Sox need 2 SPs even if Whitlock moves to the rotation, which I expect but don’t approve of. But I don’t think you can expect Rodon or deGrom to come to Boston. Bassit? Sure. He’s much more likely, at probably $12-15mill AAV. The other starter is more likely via trade, and the primary candidates will come from the arbitration eligible pitchers on small market teams. Best place to look? Miami…

[moonslav59]

I have touting Nimmo longer than anyone. I do doubt the Sox target him because he is very likely to get a QO, and I think the Sox limit QO free agents to anyone worth surrendering two draft picks for, if anyone at all. (Bogaets being the obvious exception as he won’t cost them any draft picks.). Is Nimmo a player worth giving up two draft picks for? I would be surprised if they ranked him that way. But they might. Not sure.

 

The non-QO pitching market is probably headlined by Bassitt, Syndergaard (who is ineligible due to mid-season trade), and Wacha. Eovaldi is s borderline QO candidate, but it doesn’t matter, since, like Bogaets, he can be re-signed.

 

If the Sox avoid QO players altogether, bullpen should be the big focus. The only pitcher likely to get one is Diaz. So pitchers like Rafael Montero and Michael Fulmer make for great targets.

 

And once Bogaerts opts out, the Sox have only $80mill committed for 2023 before arbitration raises. So figure roughly $90-100mill after once Devers, Pivetta and Verdugo cases are settled.

 

So depending on the budget, they will have money. But the question is - who should they spend it on? If they can get a DH for $8-12 mill AAV, that still leaves sufficient budget to grab a SP and 2-3 RPs. The rotation as of today figures to have Pivetta, Sale, Paxton (who is expected to exercise his $4mill player option), and Bello. Sale and Paxtton are certainly iffy, but their existence also can’t be ignored. IMO the Sox need 2 SPs even if Whitlock moves to the rotation, which I expect but don’t approve of. But I don’t think you can expect Rodon or deGrom to come to Boston. Bassit? Sure. He’s much more likely, at probably $12-15mill AAV. The other starter is more likely via trade, and the primary candidates will come from the arbitration eligible pitchers on small market teams. Best place to look? Miami…

 

If the QO is a major stumbling block, then brining Bogey and maybe Wacha back, makes the most sense, then trade for Lopez or Lazardo and try to pry Berti from the Marlins, as well.

 

Bogey

Lopez

Wacha

Montero

Fulmer

Berti

 

Those 6 would make us relevant, again. I don't think it would take a major prospect sacrifice to do this. Maybe we take on Soler's contract to lessen the blow, but I'm not sure if the set budget allows that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's all about the pitching. It's the real reason why Houston is good every year, and now Atlanta. It's why the New York teams improved. It's why small markets in Cleveland and Milwaukee still contend. It's why LA with its open wallets can overcome injuries, trades and scandals. And it's why Seattle spent a ton of money and prospect capital the past year.

 

Pitching is why Boston stunk in '20 and '22, and was mediocre in '19 -- when Dombrowski sought to overcome injuries to the rotation by landing the best starter available weeks before the trade deadline... who turned back into Andrew Cashner.

 

And pitching was why the Red Sox overachieved in 2021, when Eovaldi was great, Pivetta was clutch, and Whitlock was a total surprise.

[moonslav59]

It's all about the pitching. It's the real reason why Houston is good every year, and now Atlanta. It's why the New York teams improved. It's why small markets in Cleveland and Milwaukee still contend. It's why LA with its open wallets can overcome injuries, trades and scandals. And it's why Seattle spent a ton of money and prospect capital the past year.

 

Pitching is why Boston stunk in '20 and '22, and was mediocre in '19 -- when Dombrowski sought to overcome injuries to the rotation by landing the best starter available weeks before the trade deadline... who turned back into Andrew Cashner.

 

And pitching was why the Red Sox overachieved in 2021, when Eovaldi was great, Pivetta was clutch, and Whitlock was a total surprise.

 

I totally agree, and with Nate, Wacha and Strahm off to free agency, we have a big task ahead.

 

We also have some huge question marks, concerning health, with Sale, Paxton (option?) and Taylor- Houck and Whitlock to a lesser extent. Which Barnes shows up is another question. Many holes to fill.

 

I'll slot Houck & Whitlock in the pen, but one may fill a rotation slot by opening day:

 

SP1 ____

SP2 ____

SP3 Sale/Paxton

SP4 Pivetta

SP5 Bello

SP6 Crawford, Wink, Seabold, Mata, Walter, Murphy, TWard

 

Closer ____

RP2 Whitlock

RP3 Houck

RP4 ____

RP5 Schreiber

RP6 Barnes

RP7 see SP6 or Taylor, Kelly, German, Brasier, Danish, McGee, Reed, Ort, Politi

[Hugh2]

I have touting Nimmo longer than anyone. I do doubt the Sox target him because he is very likely to get a QO, and I think the Sox limit QO free agents to anyone worth surrendering two draft picks for, if anyone at all. (Bogaets being the obvious exception as he won’t cost them any draft picks.). Is Nimmo a player worth giving up two draft picks for? I would be surprised if they ranked him that way. But they might. Not sure.

 

The non-QO pitching market is probably headlined by Bassitt, Syndergaard (who is ineligible due to mid-season trade), and Wacha. Eovaldi is s borderline QO candidate, but it doesn’t matter, since, like Bogaets, he can be re-signed.

 

If the Sox avoid QO players altogether, bullpen should be the big focus. The only pitcher likely to get one is Diaz. So pitchers like Rafael Montero and Michael Fulmer make for great targets.

 

And once Bogaerts opts out, the Sox have only $80mill committed for 2023 before arbitration raises. So figure roughly $90-100mill after once Devers, Pivetta and Verdugo cases are settled.

 

So depending on the budget, they will have money. But the question is - who should they spend it on? If they can get a DH for $8-12 mill AAV, that still leaves sufficient budget to grab a SP and 2-3 RPs. The rotation as of today figures to have Pivetta, Sale, Paxton (who is expected to exercise his $4mill player option), and Bello. Sale and Paxtton are certainly iffy, but their existence also can’t be ignored. IMO the Sox need 2 SPs even if Whitlock moves to the rotation, which I expect but don’t approve of. But I don’t think you can expect Rodon or deGrom to come to Boston. Bassit? Sure. He’s much more likely, at probably $12-15mill AAV. The other starter is more likely via trade, and the primary candidates will come from the arbitration eligible pitchers on small market teams. Best place to look? Miami…

 

Remember about 15 million is needed for player benefits. As it stands now the Sox have about 80 million to spend. Bogaerts is probably costing you 30 million per. That's 50 million to spend MAYBE 55 which is actually very little considering we need at least two starters, relief pitching, a RF/CF type and not a catcher if you're happy with Wong/McGuire. If you sign Brantly you're down in the 35-40 million range. It's just unnecessary, I'd rather go with Hosmer, or rotate the position to keep guys healthy. Lord knows we could use it seeing how much injuries derailed this team in 2022.

 

Also, knowing the Sox are going to get under the cap either this year or next makes it even less feasible. If they just reset and could get him on 1-2 years that's fine. But this does not seem like the year to be wasting 10-15 million on a DH when pitching was clearly the problem last year.

[notin]

It's all about the pitching. It's the real reason why Houston is good every year, and now Atlanta. It's why the New York teams improved. It's why small markets in Cleveland and Milwaukee still contend. It's why LA with its open wallets can overcome injuries, trades and scandals. And it's why Seattle spent a ton of money and prospect capital the past year.

 

Pitching is why Boston stunk in '20 and '22, and was mediocre in '19 -- when Dombrowski sought to overcome injuries to the rotation by landing the best starter available weeks before the trade deadline... who turned back into Andrew Cashner.

 

And pitching was why the Red Sox overachieved in 2021, when Eovaldi was great, Pivetta was clutch, and Whitlock was a total surprise.

 

Absolutely correct on pitching.

 

But if you look at Houston, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa, you don’t see a lot of expensive free agent starters. (Verlander and? Anyone?). You see a pipeline of pitchers coming up from the minors.

 

The Sox aren’t doing that, and can’t use the alternative of bringing in guys like Price and extending aging guys like Sale.

 

The problem with spending on starters is they’re very expensive, older, more fragile, and rarely live up to their deals. If you want to stay competitive like those teams, you need to keep the pitching pipeline moving and do the spending on the safe position players, preferably while they’re still younger…

[harmony]

The non-QO pitching market is probably headlined by Bassitt, Syndergaard (who is ineligible due to mid-season trade), and Wacha. Eovaldi is s borderline QO candidate, but it doesn’t matter, since, like Bogaets, he can be re-signed.

Is Chris Bassitt, despite his complicated contract, less likely to receive a qualifying offer than Michael Wacha?

 

This year the 33-year-old Bassett posed 2.7 fWAR and 3.2 bWAR in 30 starts while the 31-year-old Wacha posted 1.5 fWAR and 3.3 bWAR in 23 starts.

 

The Mets and Bassitt have a $19 million mutual option, or $150,000 buyout, for 2023.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york...bassitt-14068/

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Absolutely correct on pitching.

 

But if you look at Houston, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa, you don’t see a lot of expensive free agent starters. (Verlander and? Anyone?). You see a pipeline of pitchers coming up from the minors.

 

The Sox aren’t doing that, and can’t use the alternative of bringing in guys like Price and extending aging guys like Sale.

 

The problem with spending on starters is they’re very expensive, older, more fragile, and rarely live up to their deals. If you want to stay competitive like those teams, you need to keep the pitching pipeline moving and do the spending on the safe position players, preferably while they’re still younger…

 

Good points, but also why I can't see investing in a guy like Bassitt, who is older than Eovaldi. John Henry took his business model from the old hippie button: Don't Trust Anyone Over 30.

[moonslav59]

Remember about 15 million is needed for player benefits. As it stands now the Sox have about 80 million to spend. Bogaerts is probably costing you 30 million per. That's 50 million to spend MAYBE 55 which is actually very little considering we need at least two starters, relief pitching, a RF/CF type and not a catcher if you're happy with Wong/McGuire. If you sign Brantly you're down in the 35-40 million range. It's just unnecessary, I'd rather go with Hosmer, or rotate the position to keep guys healthy. Lord knows we could use it seeing how much injuries derailed this team in 2022.

 

Also, knowing the Sox are going to get under the cap either this year or next makes it even less feasible. If they just reset and could get him on 1-2 years that's fine. But this does not seem like the year to be wasting 10-15 million on a DH when pitching was clearly the problem last year.

 

I had us at about $80M after the Kike, if we stay under the tax line, which is unknown, at this time.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely correct on pitching.

 

But if you look at Houston, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa, you don’t see a lot of expensive free agent starters. (Verlander and? Anyone?). You see a pipeline of pitchers coming up from the minors.

 

The Sox aren’t doing that, and can’t use the alternative of bringing in guys like Price and extending aging guys like Sale.

 

The problem with spending on starters is they’re very expensive, older, more fragile, and rarely live up to their deals. If you want to stay competitive like those teams, you need to keep the pitching pipeline moving and do the spending on the safe position players, preferably while they’re still younger…

 

Trading for SP'ers seems to be our best hope. It worked with Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Sale and to some extent with Peavy and Porcello.

 

Ideally, we start producing pitchers from our farm, and maybe Bello, Mata, Walter, TWard and Wikelman will introduce a new era in Sox pitcher development. I'm not ready to trust the pipeline and want us to acquire some pitchers for 2023, at least. We need pen help, for sure and at least one solid SP'er.

[Old Red]

I had us at about $80M after the Kike, if we stay under the tax line, which is unknown, at this time.

 

How much are you allowing for the possible Bogey, and Raffy increases?

[notin]

Remember about 15 million is needed for player benefits. As it stands now the Sox have about 80 million to spend. Bogaerts is probably costing you 30 million per. That's 50 million to spend MAYBE 55 which is actually very little considering we need at least two starters, relief pitching, a RF/CF type and not a catcher if you're happy with Wong/McGuire. If you sign Brantly you're down in the 35-40 million range. It's just unnecessary, I'd rather go with Hosmer, or rotate the position to keep guys healthy. Lord knows we could use it seeing how much injuries derailed this team in 2022.

 

Also, knowing the Sox are going to get under the cap either this year or next makes it even less feasible. If they just reset and could get him on 1-2 years that's fine. But this does not seem like the year to be wasting 10-15 million on a DH when pitching was clearly the problem last year.

 

Do we really know if the Sox are going under the cap this year or next? If 2023 and 2024 are wildly successful, think they dial back? The increased revenue from a successful team can more than cover the cost of the penalties….

[notin]

How much are you allowing for the possible Bogey, and Raffy increases?

 

Bogaerts has to be signed and will be counted for under the available spending money. Devers has a year of arbitration left and any extension likely won’t kick in until 2024…

[moonslav59]

How much are you allowing for the possible Bogey, and Raffy increases?

 

The Raffy "increase" can be structured to not add much on the tax budget for 2023 by making it begin in 2024.

 

I've already said I'd offer Bogey $160M/6 max, and that may be too much. That is $26.7M per year. Out of $80M, that leaves about $53M to spend on RF, SP, RP, RP and maybe some depth, assuming we reset.

[moonslav59]

Do we really know if the Sox are going under the cap this year or next? If 2023 and 2024 are wildly successful, think they dial back? The increased revenue from a successful team can more than cover the cost of the penalties….

 

I'm pretty certain we'll reset in 2023 or 2024.

 

Which season looks like the best season to spend big on? Trying to be objective, I'd have to say 2024, as many of our rookies and second year players should be better.

 

I seriously doubt we go over 3 years in a row.

[Old Red]

The Raffy "increase" can be structured to not add much on the tax budget for 2023 by making it begin in 2024.

 

I've already said I'd offer Bogey $160M/6 max, and that may be too much. That is $26.7M per year. Out of $80M, that leaves about $53M to spend on RF, SP, RP, RP and maybe some depth, assuming we reset.

 

Not much money to spend if Bogey, and Raffy sign, and if they don’t then it will take money for their replacement. I’m all for trading Raffy if nothing can be worked out, but like I have been saying for awhile that I don’t see how a good plan A, or plan B can be made without knowing the status of Bogey, and Raffy first.