A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

That's a pretty yucky way to look at things.

 

I actually think the plan was to try and make the playoffs, this year, with Story's help, but the higher priority was beyond 2023 and Story fit in those plans as well.

[moonslav59]

But that's just wasting a year of Nimmo!

 

We wasted 2 years on Price before that 2018 ring, too, although we did finish in 1st place in 2016 & 2017.

[mvp 78]

We wasted 2 years on Price before that 2018 ring, too, although we did finish in 1st place in 2016 & 2017.

 

So not a waste then? And signing Price brought us back to back to back AL East crowns?

[moonslav59]

Would this be a realistic plan to make us competitive in 2023, while also looking beyond '23 and hopefully helping there as well, despite giving up some prospects:

 

1. Trade Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman & Hosmer to MIA for Luzardo and Berti

 

2. Sign Nimmo

 

3. Sign Swanson

 

4. Sign Fulmer and Montero

 

5. QO accepted by Wacha

 

6. No Paxton or Pham options

 

2023 Sox

SP: Sale, Wacha, Luzado, Pivetta, Bello

LR: Crawford

SR: Whitlock, Houck, Fulmer, Montero, Scheiber, Barnes, Taylor

 

C: McGuire/Wong

1B: Casas

2B: Story

3B: Devers

SS: Swanson

LF: Verdugo

CF: Kike

RF: Nimmo

SH/UT: Arroyo, Berti, Refsnyder, Dalbec

 

 

[moonslav59]

So not a waste then? And signing Price brought us back to back to back AL East crowns?

 

I wish I has mentioned those AL East crowns.

[notin]

The difference between picking #5 instead of #15 in baseball is so much more fluid in the MLB than it’s in the NFL or NBA. It’s not worth throwing the season.

 

The lesson from the last few seasons is the difference between a playoff caliber team and a last place team is not as much as we think. Similar teams, different results. Need more proof? 2012 to 2013. 2017-2018. Yes guys were added, but it was the usual suspects staying healthy and having better seasons.

 

You sign Nimo because you need a right fielder.

 

 

Exactly.

 

In MLB, the worst teams win about 40% of their games and the best teams win about 60% of them. A major turnaround in one season is nearly a rarity…

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

In MLB, the worst teams win about 40% of their games and the best teams win about 60% of them. A major turnaround in one season is nearly a rarity…

 

Except for our beloved team.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Eck still looks like a kid. The sign of a man who's had a good life.

 

I know right? He looks my age and he's considerably older. And it's not from good clean living,

 

I wish him well. He sounded like a guy who was not ready to say goodbye to baseball. I'll never hear him call a J.D. Martinez again.

[notin]

Except for our beloved team.

 

2013? 2016? 2021?

 

Three of the previous 4 last place finishes for the Sox have been followed up by a postseason appearance. One of those was a World Series title…

[moonslav59]

2013? 2016? 2021?

 

Three of the previous 4 last place finishes for the Sox have been followed up by a postseason appearance. One of those was a World Series title…

 

.426>.599>.438 ('12-'14)

.481>.574 ('15-'16)

.667>.519 ('18'19) not quite .600 to .400 but still a .148 drop followed by .400 in '20.

.400>.568 ('20-'21)

 

Not exactly .400 to .600 or ,600 to .400 but not are for us.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly.

 

In MLB, the worst teams win about 40% of their games and the best teams win about 60% of them. A major turnaround in one season is nearly a rarity…

 

So "hardly a rarity"?

[cp176]

Decimated the farm ??? Dombrowski could have been arrested for larceny the way he outsmarted the other GMs. Kopech and Moncada were traded six years ago. So far , they have amounted to very little. Margot was traded seven years ago . He is having a mediocre , run of the mill career. Who was that other stiff ? Logan Allen ? Too funny. The Sox actually beat the Yankees and won the division three straight years. Light years better than finishing dead last. Now we are actually still blaming it on trades that were made six and seven years ago ? Give me a break.

 

Just checking here but hope you know that I'm one of the guys who thinks that even the thought that DD might have decimated the farm is a bunch of ********.

[cp176]

None of us has insider knowledge. We're all in the dark. We can make educated guesses about what the Sox may do, but even people in the media who have direct access to Bloom barely have more of a clue than we do. This is all just for fun and nothing to take seriously.

 

and you are so right. If you were where I am I'd buy you a beer or two or 18. Rational thought is just not acceptable. We'd have a good time even though chronologically I'm a bit older than you.

[notin]

So "hardly a rarity"?

 

Yes .. hardly a rarity. The Sox have had one season turnarounds in 3 of their last 4 previous last place finishes.

 

No reason to think they can’t do it again…

[dgalehouse]

Just checking here but hope you know that I'm one of the guys who thinks that even the thought that DD might have decimated the farm is a bunch of ********.

 

I agree.

[moonslav59]

Just checking here but hope you know that I'm one of the guys who thinks that even the thought that DD might have decimated the farm is a bunch of ********.

 

I'm one who has no beef with DD bring us 2 first place finishes and the best season the Sox have ever had, but think we also went overboard in trading prospects. I, too, agree it is ******** to say he decimated or emptied the farm. Devers, alone exposed that exaggeration.

 

A couple posters, maybe 3 or 4, in moments of hyperbolic rants have said he "decimated" or "emptied" the farm.

 

I'm not sure why we are going on an on about this.

 

DD traded over 20 prospects, who at one time or another were top 20 on soxprospects.com. Many had already lost value, when traded. Many had hyped value when traded, and never met the promise they had when traded. A few have done okay or better than okay. A few are still pending to some degree.

 

In hindsight, the trades were worth it, but let's not shortchange the affect, even if less than many think it is, on the current team and farm value. We basically have nobody left from those trades, but a lot of glory to show from many of them. We'd also be better, right now with Kopech, Moncada, Margot, Beeks, and a few others. We'd also be better, if DD was handed a better farm or drafted/signed IFA better than he did. I think he did better than I expected when drafting so lowly and having penalties on IFA signings and restricted bonus pool money due to winning so damn much.

 

All we need to do is look at who our farm has produced since Devers was called up in 2017. That's over 5 years ago. Let's not pretend the farm has been a big help since then. Even if you count the DD prospects trades after the Devers call-up as prospects that helped us, that list is short and nearly insignificant, excpet for maybe Beeks for Nate.

[notin]

Just checking here but hope you know that I'm one of the guys who thinks that even the thought that DD might have decimated the farm is a bunch of ********.

 

He definitely did, but not by trading starts just by sending away any minimum wage talent that would have made it possible to retain a lot of the more expensive players, something that probably gets overlooked, because it leaves the team in a position to spend to fill more holes than necessary. And it creates a situation where the team has very little support for when the highly paid players start to age and decline. Not to mention the players he added to the farm haven’t provided much outside of Houck, although Casas and Bello both certainly look promising so far…

[Larry Cook]

He definitely did, but not by trading starts just by sending away any minimum wage talent that would have made it possible to retain a lot of the more expensive players, something that probably gets overlooked, because it leaves the team in a position to spend to fill more holes than necessary. And it creates a situation where the team has very little support for when the highly paid players start to age and decline. Not to mention the players he added to the farm haven’t provided much outside of Houck, although Casas and Bello both certainly look promising so far…

 

Count me in as a huge fan of Bello! His stuff is electric and if he gets consistency with command and control, he will be an annual 12 to 16 game winner.

[moonslav59]

He definitely did, but not by trading starts just by sending away any minimum wage talent that would have made it possible to retain a lot of the more expensive players, something that probably gets overlooked, because it leaves the team in a position to spend to fill more holes than necessary. And it creates a situation where the team has very little support for when the highly paid players start to age and decline. Not to mention the players he added to the farm haven’t provided much outside of Houck, although Casas and Bello both certainly look promising so far…

 

One would expect the GM from 4-7 years ago to have more top prospects than the one from 0-3 years ago, due to aging and development, and I'm pretty sure DD added better prospects than many of expected he did when he left, and even a year or two beyond his departure.

 

Here are the top prospects there were in the system before DD and added by DD during his time, here:

 

Graduated (date became a non prospect)

Devers 9/17

Brasier 8/18

Taylor 8/19

DHern 9/19

Dalbec 5/21

Houck 9/21

Duran 7/22

Crawford 8/22

Bello 10/22

 

Still prospects (pre-Bloom) w current soxprospects rankings

2. Casas

4. Rafaela

6. Mata

8. Walter

9. Paulino

12. Murphy

13. Wikelman

15. Perales

17. Lugo

18. TWard

19. Bonaci

 

Bloom prospects of acquired when prospects:

Graduated:

Whitlock 6/21

Winckowski 9/22

 

Still prospects (current soxprospects ranking)

1. Mayer

3. Bleis

5. Yorke

7. Romero

10. Anthony

11. Wong

14. E Valdez

16. Jordan

20. Hickey

21. Coffey

22. Kavadas

23. Seabold

24. Downs

25. Rodriguez-Cruz

26. Abreu

27. German

28. Drohan

29. Kelly

30. Brannon

31. J Paez

32. R Hern

33. Binelas

34. McDonough

35. Uberstine

 

This is not even close to "decimation" or "emptying."

 

[notin]

One would expect the GM from 4-7 years ago to have more top prospects than the one from 0-3 years ago, due to aging and development, and I'm pretty sure DD added better prospects than many of expected he did when he left, and even a year or two beyond his departure.

 

Here are the top prospects there were in the system before DD and added by DD during his time, here:

 

Graduated (date became a non prospect)

Devers 9/17

Brasier 8/18

Taylor 8/19

DHern 9/19

Dalbec 5/21

Houck 9/21

Duran 7/22

Crawford 8/22

Bello 10/22

 

Still prospects (pre-Bloom) w current soxprospects rankings

2. Casas

4. Rafaela

6. Mata

8. Walter

9. Paulino

12. Murphy

13. Wikelman

15. Perales

17. Lugo

18. TWard

19. Bonaci

 

Bloom prospects of acquired when prospects:

Graduated:

Whitlock 6/21

Winckowski 9/22

 

Still prospects (current soxprospects ranking)

1. Mayer

3. Bleis

5. Yorke

7. Romero

10. Anthony

11. Wong

14. E Valdez

16. Jordan

20. Hickey

21. Coffey

22. Kavadas

23. Seabold

24. Downs

25. Rodriguez-Cruz

26. Abreu

27. German

28. Drohan

29. Kelly

30. Brannon

31. J Paez

32. R Hern

33. Binelas

34. McDonough

35. Uberstine

 

This is not even close to "decimation" or "emptying."

 

 

 

4-7 years is a pretty crazy range to broadcast considering players who will be 23 seven years from now are just learning to drive.

 

Casas and Bello can hopefully contribute next year. Rafaela, Mata and Ward are not far behind. Wong and Valdez on the bench. That’s a decent amount of r rookies for one season. The following year, maybe Mayer and Abreu or whoever.

 

It’s only going a few per year, assuming they’re not traded…

[moonslav59]

4-7 years is a pretty crazy range to broadcast considering players who will be 23 seven years from now are just learning to drive.

 

I'm counting prospects that were in the system, before DD became the GM, too, plus the ones he drafted and needed years to develop.

 

Many players take 5-7 years to develop, alone- or longer.

 

I'm not sure what your point is.

 

Also, DD could have "decimated the farm" by trading Devers. Later, he could have traded guys like Dalbec.

 

He sure traded a lot, but clearly no decimation.

[moonslav59]

Casas and Bello can hopefully contribute next year. Rafaela, Mata and Ward are not far behind. Wong and Valdez on the bench. That’s a decent amount of r rookies for one season. The following year, maybe Mayer and Abreu or whoever.

 

It’s only going a few per year, assuming they’re not traded…

 

Yes, we have just arrived at the point where we can start to expect a steady flow of helpful graduating prospects.

 

Some will surely disappoint, and some may surprise us. We may even have enough, where we can afford a trade very now and then that involves giving up 2-3, but to sustain the system, those times should be few and far between, and ideally made at strategic times when the team seems like it is just a key player or two away from a ring challenge, and the budget lines up with the window.

 

NOT just because many fans are irate and screaming for an all-out strategy before everything is lined up.

 

I'm not saying 2023 isn't the "right time." Much of the timing depends on spending plans none of us are privy to. Much depends on what Bogey and or Devers might accept as "hometown discounts" or overpays. Much depends on secondary signings and additions that may look like Marwin, Andriese, Richards and Diekman, or hopefully may look like Schreiber, Refsnyder, Renfroe, Wacha, Strahm or the 2021 Kike.

 

I think the farm is currently lined up to expect about 3 useful to key additions every year for the next 3-5 years. If we keep signing good IFAs and drafting like Bloom seems to be doing well at, maybe 5-7 years or more.

[cp176]

He definitely did, but not by trading starts just by sending away any minimum wage talent that would have made it possible to retain a lot of the more expensive players, something that probably gets overlooked, because it leaves the team in a position to spend to fill more holes than necessary. And it creates a situation where the team has very little support for when the highly paid players start to age and decline. Not to mention the players he added to the farm haven’t provided much outside of Houck, although Casas and Bello both certainly look promising so far…

 

I don't disagree with much of what you say here notin. It is the method that I question. it is possible that we could have kept all of those guys and remained average for a long long time too. Sometimes I guess it can be risky to take big leaps but many times it is worth it. What's a guy to do? We are likely to find out soon what kind of leadership we can expect from Bloom.

[notin]

I don't disagree with much of what you say here notin. It is the method that I question. it is possible that we could have kept all of those guys and remained average for a long long time too. Sometimes I guess it can be risky to take big leaps but many times it is worth it. What's a guy to do? We are likely to find out soon what kind of leadership we can expect from Bloom.

 

 

Also true.

 

The way I see it, if you win a title the way DD did, with big contracts and removing lots of farm, you’re simply going to have to pay the piper with some down years, like the Sox are doing now.

 

That’s why I hate seeing the Sox go big on free agency. The titles aren’t guaranteed, but free agents adding and declining is…

[Old Red]

Yes, we have just arrived at the point where we can start to expect a steady flow of helpful graduating prospects.

 

Some will surely disappoint, and some may surprise us. We may even have enough, where we can afford a trade very now and then that involves giving up 2-3, but to sustain the system, those times should be few and far between, and ideally made at strategic times when the team seems like it is just a key player or two away from a ring challenge, and the budget lines up with the window.

 

NOT just because many fans are irate and screaming for an all-out strategy before everything is lined up.

 

I'm not saying 2023 isn't the "right time." Much of the timing depends on spending plans none of us are privy to. Much depends on what Bogey and or Devers might accept as "hometown discounts" or overpays. Much depends on secondary signings and additions that may look like Marwin, Andriese, Richards and Diekman, or hopefully may look like Schreiber, Refsnyder, Renfroe, Wacha, Strahm or the 2021 Kike.

 

I think the farm is currently lined up to expect about 3 useful to key additions every year for the next 3-5 years. If we keep signing good IFAs and drafting like Bloom seems to be doing well at, maybe 5-7 years or more.

Oh those bad irate fans that go out screaming, because they don’t like to see their team with a losing season, and being in last place in the division. How do think they should act to go out, and pat Bloom on the back, and say a job well done? Of course you’ve called the fans crybabies among so many things this year just, because they don’t see things your way. Like myself with a $200M+ payroll every year I expect them to be in the watered down playoffs every year, and anything less is a failure, and even more so like this year with a loosing record to boot, so no there should be no waiting around waisting years away hoping to get better 3/years down the road. Like Kennedy said yesterday this year’s failure of the team is on management him, and Bloom, and below, and they expect to be competitive EVERY year. Fans aren’t going to wait to as you call it things lining up, nor should they. Non of the prospects should be off limits if it makes the Red Sox better, or the number of them. Remember what’s good for how you see things might not be good for others see things especially the fans who pay the high ticket prices to go to the games at Fenway. If you think many fans were irate, and crybabies this year things will get worse next year if things don’t improve.

[notin]

Oh those bad irate fans that go out screaming, because they don’t like to see their team with a losing season, and being in last place in the division. How do think they should act to go out, and pat Bloom on the back, and say a job well done? Of course you’ve called the fans crybabies among so many things this year just, because they don’t see things your way. Like myself with a $200M+ payroll every year I expect them to be in the watered down playoffs every year, and anything less is a failure, and even more so like this year with a loosing record to boot, so no there should be no waiting around waisting years away hoping to get better 3/years down the road. Like Kennedy said yesterday this year’s failure of the team is on management him, and Bloom, and below, and they expect to be competitive EVERY year. Fans aren’t going to wait to as you call it things lining up, nor should they. Non of the prospects should be off limits if it makes the Red Sox better, or the number of them. Remember what’s good for how you see things might not be good for others see things especially the fans who pay the high ticket prices to go to the games at Fenway. If you think many fans were irate, and crybabies this year things will get worse next year if things don’t improve.

 

Yeah that’s not what he said. And you don’t do a good job refuting it by turning into the very fan you think he’s calling out…

[mvp 78]

and you are so right. If you were where I am I'd buy you a beer or two or 18. Rational thought is just not acceptable. We'd have a good time even though chronologically I'm a bit older than you.

 

I only post on here, because it's the only place where I'm still one of the "young" guys.

[moonslav59]

Of course you’ve called the fans crybabies among so many things this year just, because they don’t see things your way.

 

I call them crybabies, because they are babies who cry and cry and cry.

[moonslav59]

Like myself with a $200M+ payroll every year I expect them to be in the watered down playoffs every year, and anything less is a failure

 

We all do.

 

It's who we lay most of the blame on that we diverge.

[moonslav59]

Fans aren’t going to wait to as you call it things lining up, nor should they.

 

I never said they would. That is one reason I think we may make a plashy deal a year or two before maybe we should- emphasis on "maybe."

 

Remember what’s good for how you see things might not be good for others see things especially the fans who pay the high ticket prices to go to the games at Fenway. If you think many fans were irate, and crybabies this year things will get worse next year if things don’t improve.

 

I don't need to "remember." I made this exact point in my past posts.

 

I'm also not against making a 2 or 3 good prospects for one, cost-controlled ace, right now. Not just to placate the crybabies, but to placate those who look beyond just the here and now and are not crying all day long, 7 days a week.

 

I think our farm is near enough to where it has to be to allow for a big deal, but it should not, IMO, become a common occurrence. In reality, I do not think we are just a key player or two, or even 3 away from being a top contender, so I'd be fine waiting another year, but I also realize I am in a very small minority, and I would be drowned out by the crybabies, next season, if we punt to 2024 while trying to look semi-competitive in '23.

 

This is not saying the crybabies have no right or reason to cry. I fully understand their reasons. I'm frustrated as hell, too. I'd rather see us get near the top sooner rather than later, but to me, unless we see a major shift in JH's spending tendencies, and it would have to entail going over the tax line for 3 or more years, perhaps by a lot, I'm not in favor of going all in for 2023, only to re-set in 2024 and then not have the prospects needed to pull us back up. We'd just be repeating the mistakes in the past.