A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Hugh2]

So… among the rule changes for next year are the limiting of pickoff throws and larger bases (from 15 to 18 inches). To me, this means speed is back. Stolen bases. Good baserunning needed.

 

Bloom has been hoarding speed prooescts. Hamilton, Ferguson, Rosier and Abreu are all base runners, among other things. He may have done so in anticipation of this rule change. (He didn’t hoard speed in Tampa.)

 

Does all of this mean Duran is in the plans for 2023? Or does it at least make him better trade bait?

 

I don't think this does anything for Duran. His speed isn't a factor on the bases because A.) he can't hit enough to get on base and B.) he doesn't have great instincts which negates much of that speed.

 

If anything this gives more value to a guy like Hamilton, who...may have been in the majors now as a pinch runner off the bench if we were a serious contender.

[Hugh2]

But it's blatantly obvious these new rule changes will increase the value of speed and up-the-middle defense. This makes the defensive tandem of Wong/McGuire more attractive and makes prospects like Rafaela, Bleis along with the 2022 draft class more valuable (potentially) as well. Sox used to love drafting all up the middle types. Glad to see them get back to that.

[mvp 78]

But it's blatantly obvious these new rule changes will increase the value of speed and up-the-middle defense. This makes the defensive tandem of Wong/McGuire more attractive and makes prospects like Rafaela, Bleis along with the 2022 draft class more valuable (potentially) as well. Sox used to love drafting all up the middle types. Glad to see them get back to that.

 

I think the changes to shifting puts a premium on DEFENSE which really puts Duran on the outs. Larger bags and less pickoff throws aren't going to make up for his defensive issues and problems getting to 1b.

Edited September 13, 2022 by mvp 78

[Hugh2]

I think the changes to shifting puts a premium on shifting which really puts Duran on the outs. Larger bags and fewer pickoff throws aren't going to make up for his defensive issues and problems getting to 1b.

 

Well, I think it's going to drastically reduce shifting, which is going to put a premium on infield defense. You might see some modified shifts for an extreme pull hitter where the LFer moves over to where the 3B would normally move over too. Then your CF/RF plays left center and right center. Need two good speedy guys for that to work too. Which again, if viable, puts a premium on outfield defense.

[moonslav59]

I doubt any team will have a speedster with no other skills on their 26 man roster.

 

Hamilton needs to up his OBP (.332) or SLG (.397). He turns 25, soon, so I'm not sure how much he can improve. He has been hot, lately. He has 66 SBs and 8 CS.

 

Abreu is another story. The 23 year old has 110 BBs in 124 games, this year. He has a .398 OBP (.366 career) and a decent SLG on .426 with 17 HRs and 45 XBHs in 437 ABs. He has 29 SBs and 3 CS. Before this year, he had 31 SBs and 27 CS, so I'm not sure what he is doing differently, now.

 

Max Ferguson, another trade pick-up, is also 23 and has 61 SBs with just 5 CS. He walks a lot, too (96 BBs and a .366 OBP.) His SLG is about as low as can be (.339), and his .214 BA is worrisome, but if he can walk 96 times in the bigs, he'll make it.

 

Rafaela does it all and has 27 SBs with 5 CS.

 

Kier Meredith has 25 SBs and 0 CS!

 

[Hugh2]

Not during the most part of the regular season, but you see a pure pinch runner type when rosters expand and in the playoffs now.

 

Also, Kier Meredith is nice, but minor league stolen base numbers may be the most useless stat ever. Garin Cecchini once stole over 50 bases, he was not very fast at all.

[mvp 78]

Well, I think it's going to drastically reduce shifting, which is going to put a premium on infield defense. You might see some modified shifts for an extreme pull hitter where the LFer moves over to where the 3B would normally move over too. Then your CF/RF plays left center and right center. Need two good speedy guys for that to work too. Which again, if viable, puts a premium on outfield defense.

 

I screwed up my post by writing shifting twice. Not enough coffee today. I updated.

[Hugh2]

I screwed up my post by writing shifting twice. Not enough coffee today. I updated.

 

I figured that's what you meant. I can speak "I haven't had coffee yet" very fluently.

[notin]

I think the changes to shifting puts a premium on DEFENSE which really puts Duran on the outs. Larger bags and less pickoff throws aren't going to make up for his defensive issues and problems getting to 1b.

 

The rules don’t make him a better player, but they might make him more useful. Really, todays Duran might be more valuable than yesterdays Duran. The question is - is he valuable enough yet?

[Hugh2]

The rules don’t make him a better player, but they might make him more useful. Really, todays Duran might be more valuable than yesterdays Duran. The question is - is he valuable enough yet?

 

I think it makes him less valuable. His defense sucks which makes him less valuable on defense, and he can't hit enough to get on base. Despite his speed, he has bad base running instincts and doesn't swipe a lot of bags as someone with his speed should.

 

his value has gone up as a pinch runner. How much value does that really add?

[moonslav59]

The rules don’t make him a better player, but they might make him more useful. Really, todays Duran might be more valuable than yesterdays Duran. The question is - is he valuable enough yet?

 

The answer is most likely, no.

 

I do think his hitting can still come around, but I'm done with any hopes of defense in the OF. I had serious doubts from the start, and he confirmed them.

[Hugh2]

The answer is most likely, no.

 

I do think his hitting can still come around, but I'm done with any hopes of defense in the OF. I had serious doubts from the start, and he confirmed them.

 

If anything his speed is going to play more going 1st to 3rd, stretching singles into doubles, going from 1st to home. To get value there, he has to hit more.

[mvp 78]

The rules don’t make him a better player, but they might make him more useful. Really, todays Duran might be more valuable than yesterdays Duran. The question is - is he valuable enough yet?

 

How? The OFers need to cover more ground without the current shifting and he's horrible out there. Is his offense going to get a bump without shifting? He's not making great contact so I'm not sure we're going to see improvement there.

[Nick]

I don't think this does anything for Duran. His speed isn't a factor on the bases because A.) he can't hit enough to get on base and B.) he doesn't have great instincts which negates much of that speed.

 

If anything this gives more value to a guy like Hamilton, who...may have been in the majors now as a pinch runner off the bench if we were a serious contender.

 

Maybe true in center field but I don't see it on the base path. I recall Duran scoring from second base on a sacrifice fly. Let's not make him worse than he is.

[Hugh2]

Maybe true in center field but I don't see it on the base path. I recall Duran scoring from second base on a sacrifice fly. Let's not make him worse than he is.

 

2nd to home and 1st to 3rd allows more room for error because he has time to get going and make up for a bad jump. So yes, he adds value going 2nd to home but don’t expect him to turn into an expert base stealer, yes he’ll swipe some bags.

 

But the kid has a .268 OBP at the majors, if he can’t get on base, he can’t add value. So let’s not make him better than he is. How much value is negated going 2nd to home from a guy who can’t get on base when a much higher premium is now placed on outfield defense? I’d argue at best he’s retained his value, which is pretty low right now.

 

The good news is, he’s young enough to turn it around. But I wouldn’t be planning on it right now, I’d it happens great.

[moonslav59]

2nd to home and 1st to 3rd allows more room for error because he has time to get going and make up for a bad jump. So yes, he adds value going 2nd to home but don’t expect him to turn into an expert base stealer, yes he’ll swipe some bags.

 

But the kid has a .268 OBP at the majors, if he can’t get on base, he can’t add value. So let’s not make him better than he is. How much value is negated going 2nd to home from a guy who can’t get on base when a much higher premium is now placed on outfield defense? I’d argue at best he’s retained his value, which is pretty low right now.

 

The good news is, he’s young enough to turn it around. But I wouldn’t be planning on it right now, I’d it happens great.

 

His MLB sample size is not large enough to get a full read on his offense, but he has a lot to work on, and a lot to improve on.

[Hugh2]

His MLB sample size is not large enough to get a full read on his offense, but he has a lot to work on, and a lot to improve on.

 

Yeah but it wasn’t just bad results, he looked unready. But now he looks better in AAA, he might be one of those guys better suited to get a longer look elsewhere

[moonslav59]

Yeah but it wasn’t just bad results, he looked unready. But now he looks better in AAA, he might be one of those guys better suited to get a longer look elsewhere

 

Until his options run out, I'd keep him around (in AAA), and maybe he can get another chance, here.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec has 4 HRs in the last 2 games. Is it worth calling him up and seeing if he can revive his stock a little bit? (More about next year than this.)

 

DH him and let JD PH the rest of this lost season.

[moonslav59]

McGuire's OPS went from .546 when traded to .675, now. Yesterday's game helped a lot (.656>.675).

[Nick]

Dalbec has 4 HRs in the last 2 games. Is it worth calling him up and seeing if he can revive his stock a little bit? (More about next year than this.)

 

DH him and let JD PH the rest of this lost season.

 

There's absolutely no reason to play JD at this point.

 

WE ARE 20-42 VS AL EAST WHEN IT MATTERED.

 

We know what we have in JD. Give someone else a chance.

 

Why play Story? Why chance him getting injured?

 

Get the injured guys out of lineup.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Nick

[Nick]

Red Sox cutting Kevin Plawecki seems to have ruffled feathers in clubhouse | Chris Cotillo

 

This is NOT NBA. Players don't get to pick teammates. I want to see the two catchers we now have on the roster. Why not bring up Hernandez too?

 

I really don't care what Hill and Eovaldi thinks. Last time I checked, Cora is the manager.

 

Didn't we go through this with Vaz? No one really seems to care now.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Red Sox cutting Kevin Plawecki seems to have ruffled feathers in clubhouse | Chris Cotillo

 

This is NOT NBA. Players don't get to pick teammates. I want to see the two catchers we now have on the roster. Why not bring up Hernandez too?

 

I really don't care what Hill and Eovaldi thinks. Last time I checked, Cora is the manager.

 

Didn't we go through this with Vaz? No one really seems to care now.

 

Nate & Hill are likely goners, anyway.

[moonslav59]

There's absolutely no reason to play JD at this point.

 

WE ARE 20-42 VS AL EAST WHEN IT MATTERED.

 

We know what we have in JD. Give someone else a chance.

 

Why play Story? Why chance him getting injured?

 

Get the injured guys out of lineup.

 

I agree on JD. I'm not so sure on Story.

 

If we added Enmanuel Valdez to the 40, and called him up, then, yes, I'd sit Story or play him at SS.

[notin]

Red Sox cutting Kevin Plawecki seems to have ruffled feathers in clubhouse | Chris Cotillo

 

This is NOT NBA. Players don't get to pick teammates. I want to see the two catchers we now have on the roster. Why not bring up Hernandez too?

 

I really don't care what Hill and Eovaldi thinks. Last time I checked, Cora is the manager.

 

Didn't we go through this with Vaz? No one really seems to care now.

 

If Eovaldi and Hill had pitched better, maybe the Sox wouldn’t be using the final month of the season as an open audition for 2023 and would have kept Plawecki…

[moonslav59]

If Eovaldi and Hill had pitched better, maybe the Sox wouldn’t be using the final month of the season as an open audition for 2023 and would have kept Plawecki…

 

CERA

 

Hill in 2022

3.70 w Plawecki

4.40 w Vaz

8.25 w McGuire

 

Nate

4.05 w Plawecki (3.39 career)

4.98 w Vaz (4.64 career)

 

Maybe Wacha is not too happy, either:

1.77 w Plawecki

3.75 w Vaz

 

And Whitlock

2.89 w Plawecki (but 3.49 career)

3.42 w Vaz(but 2.40 career)

 

Pivetta may have been quiet for a reason

4.02 w Vaz (but 4.55 career)

5.17 w Plawecki (but 3.39 career)

 

[notin]

CERA

 

Hill in 2022

3.70 w Plawecki

4.40 w Vaz

8.25 w McGuire

 

Nate

4.05 w Plawecki (3.39 career)

4.98 w Vaz (4.64 career)

 

Maybe Wacha is not too happy, either:

1.77 w Plawecki

3.75 w Vaz

 

And Whitlock

2.89 w Plawecki (but 3.49 career)

3.42 w Vaz(but 2.40 career)

 

Pivetta may have been quiet for a reason

4.02 w Vaz (but 4.55 career)

5.17 w Plawecki (but 3.39 career)

 

 

There’s 16 games left in the season. Just how rifled should those feathers be?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Eovaldi and Hill had pitched better, maybe the Sox wouldn’t be using the final month of the season as an open audition for 2023 and would have kept Plawecki…

 

That point pretty much sums up what Tomase wrote and said yesterday.

 

Eovaldi also lamented the loss of other good teammates, Renfroe and Schwarber (but did not invoke the name of the CBO responsible). The Hawk circling above Fenway is all a-squawking: "He gone!"

 

How much is a disqualifying offer worth?

[moonslav59]

There’s 16 games left in the season. Just how rifled should those feathers be?

 

I'd think not at all.

[moonslav59]

That point pretty much sums up what Tomase wrote and said yesterday.

 

Eovaldi also lamented the loss of other good teammates, Renfroe and Schwarber (but did not invoke the name of the CBO responsible). The Hawk circling above Fenway is all a-squawking: "He gone!"

 

How much is a disqualifying offer worth?

 

It would be interesting to see the list of departed Sox players Nate did not lament over.