A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. But Bloom does have one surprise trade every off-season…

 

One surprise trade of an outfielder, that is.

[mvp 78]

One surprise trade of an outfielder, that is.

 

Don't buy any property Verdugo...

[Hugh2]

I think that seems to be the more likely scenario.

 

Plus, the FA market this offseason doesn't seem that great IMO.

 

It's weird.

 

There's some really good guys out there like Verlander and Scherzer, both of which are still pitching amongst the best in all of baseball. But they will both be 38/40 next year and could literally fall off a cliff.

 

Then there's Degrom who has stated he wants to be the first 50 million dollar pitcher. He's going to get paid, but good luck with that. To be fair, If I was willing to pay Judge it might make more sense to be willing to dish out the money to Degrom. Maybe Verlander is good for another 3 years.

[moonslav59]

We should have traded Duran not Renfroe.

[moonslav59]

It's weird.

 

There's some really good guys out there like Verlander and Scherzer, both of which are still pitching amongst the best in all of baseball. But they will both be 38/40 next year and could literally fall off a cliff.

 

Then there's Degrom who has stated he wants to be the first 50 million dollar pitcher. He's going to get paid, but good luck with that. To be fair, If I was willing to pay Judge it might make more sense to be willing to dish out the money to Degrom. Maybe Verlander is good for another 3 years.

 

Last winter, I suggested we go large and short on an old guy. Nobody jumped on my wagon.

[jacksonianmarch]

Last winter, I suggested we go large and short on an old guy. Nobody jumped on my wagon.

 

Verlander has been nails, although he is gonna miss some time. Scherzer has been nails but perpetually hurt.

[moonslav59]

Verlander has been nails, although he is gonna miss some time. Scherzer has been nails but perpetually hurt.

 

They both have done better than any Sox starter addition in recent years, except Wacha, and he was hurt, too.

[Hugh2]

Verlander has been nails, although he is gonna miss some time. Scherzer has been nails but perpetually hurt.

 

It’s a calf injury, he’s expected back this year. I’d have general concerns out his age but he’s been extremely durable up until now.

[moonslav59]

It’s a calf injury, he’s expected back this year. I’d have general concerns out his age but he’s been extremely durable up until now.

 

If we are reluctant to make large and long deals, maybe try short and large.

[Hugh2]

If we are reluctant to make large and long deals, maybe try short and large.

 

That's optimal in the long run if you want to reset the cap, but if you want to get under the cap at some point in the next 1-3 years it could be completely counterproductive.

 

If they want to live in LA land for a few years it could make sense to sign Verlander to short term deal and then not worry about spending the money to resign Devers.

[moonslav59]

That's optimal in the long run if you want to reset the cap, but if you want to get under the cap at some point in the next 1-3 years it could be completely counterproductive.

 

If they want to live in LA land for a few years it could make sense to sign Verlander to short term deal and then not worry about spending the money to resign Devers.

 

I doubt any of these guys take a 1 year deal, so yes, if we want to reset in 2024, signing Verlander, Scherzer or Kershaw for $35M x 2 would not work.

[mvp 78]

I doubt any of these guys take a 1 year deal, so yes, if we want to reset in 2024, signing Verlander, Scherzer or Kershaw for $35M x 2 would not work.

 

Which is why going over in 2022 to get JBJ did not make sense. Just trade Renfroe for prospects and hope JBJ gets DFA'd.

[Hugh2]

Which is why going over in 2022 to get JBJ did not make sense. Just trade Renfroe for prospects and hope JBJ gets DFA'd.

 

You know what's hilariously sad. If they had done just that, they probably would have claimed JBJ and stuck him in CF/RF or as a defensive replacement. Instead, they're the team paying him to not play here.

[mvp 78]

You know what's hilariously sad. If they had done just that, they probably would have claimed JBJ and stuck him in CF/RF or as a defensive replacement. Instead, they're the team paying him to not play here.

 

JBJ isn't the only guy with a good glove that can't hit, he's just a very expensive version. Why even go that route? It doesn't really make much sense.

[Hugh2]

JBJ isn't the only guy with a good glove that can't hit, he's just a very expensive version. Why even go that route? It doesn't really make much sense.

 

Well if another team DFAs him presumably he’s costing us nothing.

[moonslav59]

Bloom either terribly misguessed JBJ's projected offense or fell in love with Binelas & Hamilton.

 

I also think Cora might have asked they trade Renfroe, due to his lack of defense.

[Hugh2]

Bloom either terribly misguessed JBJ's projected offense or fell in love with Binelas & Hamilton.

 

I also think Cora might have asked they trade Renfroe, due to his lack of defense.

 

I think Blooms thinking was JBJ would be better than his 2021 and Renfroe wouldn't be as good. Renfroe would likely still be a little bit better but with JBJ's defense + the value of the prospects the Sox would ultimately come out on top. Not a terrible gamble when you consider their career norms. The problem is he ended up being wrong on all three fronts. JBJ was awful, Renfroe was amazing, and thus far the prospects don't look so great.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Blooms thinking was JBJ would be better than his 2021 and Renfroe wouldn't be as good. Renfroe would likely still be a little bit better but with JBJ's defense + the value of the prospects the Sox would ultimately come out on top. Not a terrible gamble when you consider their career norms. The problem is he ended up being wrong on all three fronts. JBJ was awful, Renfroe was amazing, and thus far the prospects don't look so great.

 

Exactimundo.

[moonslav59]

I think Blooms thinking was JBJ would be better than his 2021 and Renfroe wouldn't be as good. Renfroe would likely still be a little bit better but with JBJ's defense + the value of the prospects the Sox would ultimately come out on top. Not a terrible gamble when you consider their career norms. The problem is he ended up being wrong on all three fronts. JBJ was awful, Renfroe was amazing, and thus far the prospects don't look so great.

 

4 fronts- the budget was harmed, too.

[Bellhorn04]

4 fronts- the budget was harmed, too.

 

Hugh said Bloom was wrong on 3 fronts.

[moonslav59]

Hugh said Bloom was wrong on 3 fronts.

 

Yes, and I added a fourth- the budget.

 

(I'm okay with people just thinking it's 3.)

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, and I added a fourth- the budget.

 

Which doesn't really make sense. How was Bloom wrong about the budget?

[moonslav59]

Which doesn't really make sense. How was Bloom wrong about the budget?

 

Wrong choice to add to the budget.

 

Like Wacha's $7M was a good choice of spending money.

 

I see your point, though. He didn't guess wrong, but the budget gamble failed just as the skills.production gambles failed.

[oldtimer]

I think Blooms thinking was JBJ would be better than his 2021 and Renfroe wouldn't be as good. Renfroe would likely still be a little bit better but with JBJ's defense + the value of the prospects the Sox would ultimately come out on top. Not a terrible gamble when you consider their career norms. The problem is he ended up being wrong on all three fronts. JBJ was awful, Renfroe was amazing, and thus far the prospects don't look so great.

i

No doubt that trade was a blunder which harmed the team. We need to move on and the hope is that Bloom and the front office will consistently make better decisions his off season. It does give one reason to question Bloom's decision making but he deserves another shot.

[Hugh2]

i

No doubt that trade was a blunder which harmed the team. We need to move on and the hope is that Bloom and the front office will consistently make better decisions his off season. It does give one reason to question Bloom's decision making but he deserves another shot.

 

Sox probably could have got JBJ for close to nothing and kept Renfroe.

 

Hopefully Bloom learned his lesson from that one. I’ll give him credit, he’s made some pretty crafty moves here but this one completely blew up in his face.

 

Hypothetically he could still win the trade if one of these prospects develops, but right now it doesn’t look so great. One of the worse trades I’ve seen in a very long time.

[Bellhorn04]

Hypothetically he could still win the trade if one of these prospects develops, but right now it doesn’t look so great. One of the worse trades I’ve seen in a very long time.

 

One of the worst trades for short-term results, I would amend that to say.

[moonslav59]

Sox probably could have got JBJ for close to nothing and kept Renfroe.

 

Hopefully Bloom learned his lesson from that one. I’ll give him credit, he’s made some pretty crafty moves here but this one completely blew up in his face.

 

Hypothetically he could still win the trade if one of these prospects develops, but right now it doesn’t look so great. One of the worse trades I’ve seen in a very long time.

 

The way I see it, JBJ + Binelas for nothing would have still been a bad trade for us- even at the time of the deal.

 

That leaves Hamilton for Renfroe, an even worse deal.

 

It's just bad, bad, bad.

[Bellhorn04]

Honestly, we've spent too much time and effort on the JBJ trade.

 

The Sale extension is costing us 25.6 AAV per year for nothing, by comparison.

[moonslav59]

Honestly, we've spent too much time and effort on the JBJ trade.

 

The Sale extension is costing us 25.6 AAV per year for nothing, by comparison.

 

A lot of time on that one, too- just spread out more.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A lot of time on that one, too- just spread out more.

 

And yet, the Benintendi trade is overlooked by some as what it is: an abject failure (remember, this discussion is about the players exchanged in trades).

 

if you look at the return for Beni -- so far, because there are minor leaguers who haven't made it yet, just like in the JBJ deal...

 

... the two guys who have made the majors, Cordero and Winckowski, are both negative WAR players -- or by definition, below the value of replacement players. There's Franchy, -0.7 in '21 and -0.3 in '22 for the Sox, and Josh, -0.3 in '22.

 

Posters can argue that Beni was worthless in his last 14-game summer in Boston... but not worth less, since he was only -0.1 in 2020. Since then, Beni has made an All-Star team, won a Gold Glove and posted 3.0 POSITIVE WAR. It doesn't matter if you liked Andrew or not, that trade was also a flop.