Time For the Hypo Trade Talks to Begin ?

[harmony]

Snell's statcast line isn't all that bad. His FIP of 3.56 is solid as well, much better than the 4.66 FIP.

 

His last two starts:

@LAD 5 IP 12 K, 1 ER

SF 6 IP, 11 K, 1 ER

 

I think the Pad's would be dumb to give up on him if they want to stay competitive. They have 6 starters, but Gore has never thrown 100 innings in a season professionally. If they are moving Snell, they better be getting something really good back.

Baseball Trade Values assigns Blake Snell a surplus value of only $700,000 because of the $22.3 million remaining on his contract through 2023. BTV assigns Ha-Seong Kim a negative trade value of $1.4 million on a contract that runs through 2024.

 

It all depends on how far the Padres will go to avoid the luxury tax:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/06/padres-trade-rumors-blake-snell-luxury-tax.html

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Jim Bowden suggested Josh Bell for Bobby Dalbec and Chris Murphy. I would trade Doofy Dalbec for a bag of balls but I don't want to lose Murphy. How about Doofy Dalbec and A.Binelas for Bell? The Red Sox will have to trade at least one decent prospect for Bell. Though, I guess so much will depend on how many teams chase Bell at the deadline.

[moonslav59]

Jim Bowden suggested Josh Bell for Bobby Dalbec and Chris Murphy. I would trade Doofy Dalbec for a bag of balls but I don't want to lose Murphy. How about Doofy Dalbec and A.Binelas for Bell? The Red Sox will have to trade at least one decent prospect for Bell. Though, I guess so much will depend on how many teams chase Bell at the deadline.

 

Maybe I’m undervaluing Bell, but I think Murphy alone would be an overpay.

 

Dalbec and Ward, maybe.

[notin]

From a June 28 mailbag with Dennis Lin, the Padre beat reporter for The Athletic:

 

https://theathletic.com/3386941/2022/06/28/padres-mailbag-joe-musgrove-esteury-ruiz/?source=emp_shared_article

 

No one suggests the proposed trade involves equal talent on each side. The point is that the Padres reportedly want to clear payroll and that the Mariners are in a position to take on payroll.

 

There is also about the Padres wanting OF depth, and a declining OF they’ve already passed on isn’t the answer, especially since the outfielders they want to improve upon are better than Upton.

 

If the Padres want to move Snell, whose FIP indicates he is doing better than his ERA indicates, they can definitely find a better offer than this.

 

They might be willing to deal Kim without Snell…

[notin]

Maybe I’m undervaluing Bell, but I think Murphy alone would be an overpay.

 

Dalbec and Ward, maybe.

 

BTV suggests Matt Lugo or Brandon Walter would be an equal trade. This doesn’t mean Washington won’t field better offers, however…

[moonslav59]

BTV suggests Matt Lugo or Brandon Walter would be an equal trade. This doesn’t mean Washington won’t field better offers, however…

 

Normally, I'd trade Lugo for Bell, but I'm wondering who our future SS might be.

 

I like Walter, too much to deal him for this 2 month rental.

[harmony]

There is also about the Padres wanting OF depth, and a declining OF they’ve already passed on isn’t the answer, especially since the outfielders they want to improve upon are better than Upton.

 

If the Padres want to move Snell, whose FIP indicates he is doing better than his ERA indicates, they can definitely find a better offer than this.

 

They might be willing to deal Kim without Snell…

The Mariners could remove Justin Upton from the deal, which would give the Padres a wider edge in the trade, according to Baseball Trade Values:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-88834/

 

... although the original proposal has received more thumbs-up than thumbs-down at BTV.

 

The Padres probably would welcome a trade of Ha-Seong Kim, who has a negative $1.4 million trade value at Baseball Trade Values.

 

The $33 million in financial commitments to Snell and Kim after this season impact the Padres and their luxury tax (although only $17 million would count against the threshold in 2023).

Edited July 14, 2022 by harmony

[notin]

The Mariners could remove Justin Upton from the deal, which would give the Padres a wider edge in the trade, according to Baseball Trade Values:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-88834/

 

... although the original proposal has received more thumbs-up than thumbs-down at BTV.

 

The Padres probably would welcome a trade of Ha-Seong Kim, who has a negative $1.4 million trade value at Baseball Trade Values.

 

The $33 million in financial commitments to Snell and Kim after this season impact the Padres and their luxury tax.

 

 

It’s truly laughable that you shoot down numerous other Sox fans’ trade proposals with “[Team X] could probably get better offers” and then staunchly defend a deal that sends two oft-released aging has-beens for a 1.5 seasons recent Cy Young winner whose actually pitching pretty well. And while the Padres certainly would like to pare some salary, I think they greater prefer that salary belong to Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers.

 

Again, if the Padres do make Snell available, at least one team - and more likely multiple teams - will be able to top that offer.

[harmony]

It’s truly laughable that you shoot down numerous other Sox fans’ trade proposals with “[Team X] could probably get better offers” and then staunchly defend a deal that sends two oft-released aging has-beens for a 1.5 seasons recent Cy Young winner whose actually pitching pretty well. And while the Padres certainly would like to pare some salary, I think they greater prefer that salary belong to Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers.

 

Again, if the Padres do make Snell available, at least one team - and more likely multiple teams - will be able to top that offer.

The Padres may well receive better offers ... no argument there.

 

But moving Eric Hosmer and his negative $34.5 million trade value would cost the Padres valuable prospects. Wil Myers and his negative $7.5 million trade value would be harder to move than Blake Snell and his $700,000 surplus trade value. Neither Hosmer nor Myers would yield an impressive return.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Bell will have a few suitors. I could see the Mets going after him--they need another bat and aren't getting any production from the DH spot.

[mvp 78]

Jim Bowden suggested Josh Bell for Bobby Dalbec and Chris Murphy. I would trade Doofy Dalbec for a bag of balls but I don't want to lose Murphy. How about Doofy Dalbec and A.Binelas for Bell? The Red Sox will have to trade at least one decent prospect for Bell. Though, I guess so much will depend on how many teams chase Bell at the deadline.

 

I wouldn't do Murphy for Bell.

[mvp 78]

It’s truly laughable that you shoot down numerous other Sox fans’ trade proposals with “[Team X] could probably get better offers” and then staunchly defend a deal that sends two oft-released aging has-beens for a 1.5 seasons recent Cy Young winner whose actually pitching pretty well. And while the Padres certainly would like to pare some salary, I think they greater prefer that salary belong to Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers.

 

Again, if the Padres do make Snell available, at least one team - and more likely multiple teams - will be able to top that offer.

 

If Snell is available, I'd like the Sox to make an offer better than the M's offer.

[harmony]

If Snell is available, I'd like the Sox to make an offer better than the M's offer.

The Mariners would likely top the proposed offer, which was accepted at Baseball Trade Values with more up votes than down votes:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-88834/

 

The accepted trade apparently is discussion-worthy.

[notin]

If Snell is available, I'd like the Sox to make an offer better than the M's offer.

 

Better than Tommy Milone?!???

[notin]

If Snell is available, I'd like the Sox to make an offer better than the M's offer.

 

BTV accepts Snell and Wil Myers for Diekman and Bautista (or any of a wide number of other minor leaguers.)

 

Padres reduce payroll by $19.8mill AAV (non-pro-rated value) and save even more actual cash…

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts Snell and Wil Myers for Diekman and Bautista (or any of a wide number of other minor leaguers.)

 

Padres reduce payroll by $19.8mill AAV (non-pro-rated value) and save even more actual cash…

 

Snell has so much upside, I'd give more than that for him, especially if they took Barnes and Diekman.

[notin]

Snell has so much upside, I'd give more than that for him, especially if they took Barnes and Diekman.

 

I only had to top Upton and Milone.

 

But I also took back Wil Myers, who isn’t exactly Keith Hernandez at 1b, but is much closer to The Stache than Dalbec or Franchy…

[Bellhorn04]

Snell has so much upside, I'd give more than that for him, especially if they took Barnes and Diekman.

 

You're always trying to dump our refuse on someone else LOL

[moonslav59]

You're always trying to dump our refuse on someone else LOL

 

One man gathers what another man spills.

[moonslav59]

You're always trying to dump our refuse on someone else LOL

 

Myers is refuse, too.

[harmony]

Better than Tommy Milone?!???

Tommy Milnne, who takes the mound tonight, would likely post fewer strikeouts and fewer walks than Blake Snell.

 

ZiPS projects rest-of-season ERA of 3.72 for Snell and 3.82 for Milone.

[notin]

The 1b Trade Market

 

Josh Bell (Was). To me, the top player available

Jose Abreu (Chi) Unless this guy can be had. And I am doubtful he can be.

Trey Mancini (Balt) I see him listed as available, but he won’t be.

Jesus Aguilar (Mia) More of a consolation prize

CJ Cron (Col) Goid option of Colorado actually sells for once

Eric Hosmer (SD) 3 years $39mill left after this year is a deal breaker for me.

Garrett Cooper (Mia) If Miami makes him available, he’s one of the more underrated hitters in MLB.

[harmony]

Snell has so much upside, I'd give more than that for him, especially if they took Barnes and Diekman.

If San Diego is looking to shed payroll the Padres are unlikely to be interested in the guaranteed 2023 salaries of $8.375 million and $3.5 million for Matt Barnes and Jake Diekman (not to mention the buyouts of their 2024 options).

 

Veterans Tommy Milone and Justin Upton might be attractive to the Padres only because of their expiring contracts at league-minimum net salaries.

[moonslav59]

If San Diego is looking to shed payroll the Padres are unlikely to be interested in the guaranteed 2023 salaries of $8.375 million and $3.5 million for Matt Barnes and Jake Diekman (not to mention the buyouts of their 2024 options).

 

Veterans Tommy Milone and Justin Upton might be attractive to the Padres only because of their expiring contracts at league-minimum net salaries.

 

We'd b e adding more to the package to offset the negative values of B & D. The Padres would still save money, but yes, they would probably like to save as much as possible.

 

BTV accepted:

 

Barnes & Diekman

for

Hosmer, Campusano & Snell

 

The Padres would save over $50M.

[notin]

If San Diego is looking to shed payroll the Padres are unlikely to be interested in the guaranteed 2023 salaries of $8.375 million and $3.5 million for Matt Barnes and Jake Diekman (not to mention the buyouts of their 2024 options).

 

Veterans Tommy Milone and Justin Upton might be attractive to the Padres only because of their expiring contracts at league-minimum net salaries.

 

 

I don’t think Diekman’s contract is a killer if they also shed Wil Myers.

 

I don’t think Upton and Milone are attractive trade pieces under any circumstances…

[notin]

Tommy Milnne, who takes the mound tonight, would likely post fewer strikeouts and fewer walks than Blake Snell.

 

ZiPS projects rest-of-season ERA of 3.72 for Snell and 3.82 for Milone.

 

ZiPS also projects Milone’s “rest of season” is 32 IP….

[harmony]

ZiPS also projects Milone’s “rest of season” is 32 IP….

ZiPS projects Blake Snell with 50 innings the remainder of the 2022 season.

 

A veteran starter such Tommy Milone who can effectively shuttle between Triple A and the parent club has value in these days of crowded active rosters.

Edited July 13, 2022 by harmony

[mvp 78]

ZiPS projects Blake Snell with 50 innings the remainder of the 2022 season.

 

A veteran starter such Tommy Milone who can effectively shuttle between Triple A and the parent club has value in these days of crowded active rosters.

 

No.

 

If you combine all his numbers since 2016, he's not a 1 fWAR player.

[notin]

ZiPS projects Blake Snell with 50 innings the remainder of the 2022 season.

 

A veteran starter such Tommy Milone who can effectively shuttle between Triple A and the parent club has value in these days of crowded active rosters.

 

Careful you don’t burn your fingertips on the sun with that reach.

 

If the Padres want a fungible starter, they can find anoyjer Tommy Milone anywhere. If they want Milone, they can wait for Seattle to DFA him, which they would have to do to shuttle him back and forth since I’d be surprised if he had any options left.

 

The Sox could trade minimum wager Ryan Brasier in lieu of Diekman (and take the hit as it wouldn’t work out on BTV) and therefore give the Padres an actual player with an option left…

[moonslav59]

Careful you don’t burn your fingertips on the sun with that reach.

 

If the Padres want a fungible starter, they can find anoyjer Tommy Milone anywhere. If they want Milone, they can wait for Seattle to DFA him, which they would have to do to shuttle him back and forth since I’d be surprised if he had any options left.

 

The Sox could trade minimum wager Ryan Brasier in lieu of Diekman (and take the hit as it wouldn’t work out on BTV) and therefore give the Padres an actual player with an option left…

 

What am I missing? Why not just use Snell where you'd use Milone?

 

Are the contending Padres really looking to cut salary and get worse?