How much would you offer Devers?

[mvp 78]

Of course not.

 

According to Fangraphs Value, Raffy is worth it. Will he be worth it 8 years from now?

[mvp 78]

300 million over 10 years would mean he would have to be worth about 5 WAR per year. By the end of his contract that might be closer to 2.5 WAR the way inflation is going to the past decade. No he's actually only eclipsed 5 WAR once in his career, but given his age and offensive potential, his best offensive years are likely in front of him. He might easily put up a few 7+ WAR seasons in his prime. Devers could be worth that, he's just 26 now and will be 26 for all of next season. People forgot how young he is, if you like age projections then it's conceivable that he's going to get better and better.

 

Per Fangraphs, 1 fWAR is worth 8M. A 5 fWAR season would be equate to 40M on the open market in value.

[Bellhorn04]

Raffy is better than Story simply because of how good his bat is. I think he has a generational bat.

 

He's not Ortiz or Manny.

[mvp 78]

But his projected 2023 WAR is 4.8. Which probably has something to do with the fact that 2019 is still his best season.

 

I love the guy and want him signed, but I think we have to be realistic about how good he's going to be. Plus he had some hamstring issues this year that impacted him for quite a while. Baseball is hard on the body.

 

If he transitions to DH and puts up wRC+ in the 140s, he'll have 4 fWAR seasons consistently. That's $32M in value per Fangraphs. 10X30, get it done.

[Bellhorn04]

Per Fangraphs, 1 fWAR is worth 8M. A 5 fWAR season would be equate to 40M on the open market in value.

 

A more skeptical view would be that 1fWAR costs about 8M on the free agent market, because there are so many busts baked into the average.

[mvp 78]

He's not Ortiz or Manny.

 

No?

 

Ortiz in 03 and 04 had 145 and 147 wRC+. Devers can do that. Ohtani had a 142 wRC+ at DH this season and got 3.8 fWAR from it. Devers can do that.

[Bellhorn04]

If he transitions to DH and puts up wRC+ in the 140s, he'll have 4 fWAR seasons consistently. That's $32M in value per Fangraphs. 10X30, get it done.

 

If he's a DH, his comps are Ortiz and JDM.

[Bellhorn04]

No?

 

Ortiz in 03 and 04 had 145 and 147 wRC+. Devers can do that. Ohtani had a 142 wRC+ at DH this season and got 3.8 fWAR from it. Devers can do that.

 

Offense was way down in 2022, so it's a fair point that Devers's 2022 numbers were a lot better than they look at face value.

[mvp 78]

If he's a DH, his comps are Ortiz and JDM.

 

Ohtani's offensive fWAR being solely a DH is not a comp? Devers' wRC+ laps JD's easily aside from 2018.

[mvp 78]

Offense was way down in 2022, so it's a fair point that Devers's 2022 numbers were a lot better than they look at face value.

 

If Devers was moved to DH, he'd take less wear and tear on his body. He could just focus on hitting. I believe his offense would get better. I believe he'd be healthier. I don't think he'd be a 5 fWAR guy, but think he'd still be a 4 fWAR guy or close to it. Having a guy like that anchor the lineup pays dividends as we saw from 03-16. I pay him.

[Bellhorn04]

If Devers was moved to DH, he'd take less wear and tear on his body. He could just focus on hitting. I believe his offense would get better. I believe he'd be healthier. I don't think he'd be a 5 fWAR guy, but think he'd still be a 4 fWAR guy or close to it. Having a guy like that anchor the lineup pays dividends as we saw from 03-16. I pay him.

 

Yes, they have to sign him, no question about it.

[notin]

No?

 

Ortiz in 03 and 04 had 145 and 147 wRC+. Devers can do that. Ohtani had a 142 wRC+ at DH this season and got 3.8 fWAR from it. Devers can do that.

 

His numbers should get a slight boost without the shift, too…

[redsoxrules]

300 million over 10 years would mean he would have to be worth about 5 WAR per year. By the end of his contract that might be closer to 2.5 WAR the way inflation is going to the past decade. No he's actually only eclipsed 5 WAR once in his career, but given his age and offensive potential, his best offensive years are likely in front of him. He might easily put up a few 7+ WAR seasons in his prime. Devers could be worth that, he's just 26 now and will be 26 for all of next season. People forgot how young he is, if you like age projections then it's conceivable that he's going to get better and better.

 

I don't understand why people keep saying this. He's still young hasn't hit his ceiling yet. He's been around for 6 years now. 5 full season. How much longer are we going to use this?

 

What you currently see from Devers is what you get. I believe he has hit his ceiling.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Devers was moved to DH, he'd take less wear and tear on his body. He could just focus on hitting. I believe his offense would get better. I believe he'd be healthier. I don't think he'd be a 5 fWAR guy, but think he'd still be a 4 fWAR guy or close to it. Having a guy like that anchor the lineup pays dividends as we saw from 03-16. I pay him.

 

If you agree that Raffy has some maturing to do as a hitter, then he can be even better.

 

His injured hammy in the summer ruined what could have been a career year in '22... look at his splits -- first half: 22 HR, .324, .981; second half: 5 HRs, .249, .713. Even though he was hurt, he just kept swinging from the heels... but it seemed like if he focused on just hitting liners, he could've won the batting title in a year when .316 was the highest average.

 

It still amazes me what he did in obvious pain in the '21 playoffs -- 5 homers, 12 RBIs, 10 runs in 11 games -- swinging the bat with only one healthy arm.

[notin]

I don't understand why people keep saying this. He's still young hasn't hit his ceiling yet. He's been around for 6 years now. 5 full season. How much longer are we going to use this?

 

What you currently see from Devers is what you get. I believe he has hit his ceiling.

 

 

Devers is 26.

 

Most players have their best years from 27-32.

 

He could easily improve…

[Hugh2]

I don't understand why people keep saying this. He's still young hasn't hit his ceiling yet. He's been around for 6 years now. 5 full season. How much longer are we going to use this?

 

What you currently see from Devers is what you get. I believe he has hit his ceiling.

 

Ughhh, because he only just played his age-25 season dude. people are saying that for a reason, and they're correct. Also, 300 might just be his starting asking price, he might easily be willing to meet in the middle around 250/275. That's good value for him, he would be paid that or more in free agency.

[mvp 78]

His numbers should get a slight boost without the shift, too…

 

We'll see. I'm not going to project a boom in offense prior to 2023. You never know what f***ery Manfred is going to come up with.

[mvp 78]

I don't understand why people keep saying this. He's still young hasn't hit his ceiling yet. He's been around for 6 years now. 5 full season. How much longer are we going to use this?

 

What you currently see from Devers is what you get. I believe he has hit his ceiling.

 

What age did David Ortiz peak? What age did JD Martinez peak? Xander? Guys get better after they turn 25 all the time. It's very normal.

[mvp 78]

If you agree that Raffy has some maturing to do as a hitter, then he can be even better.

 

His injured hammy in the summer ruined what could have been a career year in '22... look at his splits -- first half: 22 HR, .324, .981; second half: 5 HRs, .249, .713. Even though he was hurt, he just kept swinging from the heels... but it seemed like if he focused on just hitting liners, he could've won the batting title in a year when .316 was the highest average.

 

It still amazes me what he did in obvious pain in the '21 playoffs -- 5 homers, 12 RBIs, 10 runs in 11 games -- swinging the bat with only one healthy arm.

 

He had a 170 wRC+ prior to the injury. That's REALLY good. Ortiz only had 2 seasons at 170 or better.

[mvp 78]

Ughhh, because he only just played his age-25 season dude. people are saying that for a reason, and they're correct. Also, 300 might just be his starting asking price, he might easily be willing to meet in the middle around 250/275. That's good value for him, he would be paid that or more in free agency.

 

Also, Sox ownership need to provide some Goodwill right about now.

[redsoxrules]

Devers is 26.

 

Most players have their best years from 27-32.

 

He could easily improve…

 

Or he could easily stay the same. A lot of players don't get better any better during that age range.

 

I mean look at Trout. He's been a beast since he started and he hasn't gotten any better once he hit 27.

 

I said last year to wait and see what he does with his last 2 Arb years and go from there. I still take that stand. This past year didn't help him to get a 300Mil contract IMO. I say let see how this year plays out. Unless they can get him at around 230-240 Mil.

 

Do I have to bring up Matt Olson again?

He's a good comp to Devers, in fact I think he's slightly better. He was signed for 8 years at 168.

There's a 2 year age gap. Add 2 years and you get 10 at 210 Mil. That's why I say the 225 Mil offer is very good.

[redsoxrules]

He had a 170 wRC+ prior to the injury. That's REALLY good. Ortiz only had 2 seasons at 170 or better.

 

Let's stop playing the injury game here. If he was that injured he wouldn't of been playing at all considering they were out the playoff picture.

Pitchers adjusted to him and gave him nothing to hit. He swung at everything he saw. It wasn't because he was injured.

[mvp 78]

Let's stop playing the injury game here. If he was that injured he wouldn't of been playing at all considering they were out the playoff picture.

Pitchers adjusted to him and gave him nothing to hit. He swung at everything he saw. It wasn't because he was injured.

 

Why did they wait until August to adjust? The book on Devers hadn't been out until 8/22? Wild!

[mvp 78]

Or he could easily stay the same. A lot of players don't get better any better during that age range.

 

I mean look at Trout.

 

Do I have to bring up Matt Olson again?

 

Mike Trout's best season came after he turned 25. Of his 5 years above 175 wRC+, only one came before he was 25.

 

Matt Olson's best wRC+ full season came after he turned 25.

Edited November 23, 2022 by mvp 78

[Hugh2]

If your argument is to bring up a once in a generation HOF talent (Trout) you have no argument. End.

[notin]

Using 28yo Matt Olson isn’t much better…

[Bellhorn04]

Austin Riley's deal is a reasonable comp, if you adjust for the difference of two arb years between them.

[mvp 78]

Austin Riley's deal is a reasonable comp, if you adjust for the difference of two arb years between them.

 

How do you adjust for that though?

[redsoxrules]

Using 28yo Matt Olson isn’t much better…

 

How so? His numbers are comparable. The only difference is 2 years in age

[Hugh2]

How do you adjust for that though?

 

Players who are taking extensions buying out multiple arbitration years are almost always taking less money. Players who wait get paid more. It’s not the greatest comp