Fire Bloom .

[notin]

Didn't want to match the outlandish sum of $3 million for an experienced SS in Andrus, but hey, just for fun, let's try Bobby Dalbec there.

 

Is it possible that Bloom is just clean out of his mind?

 

 

I think the Dalbec thing might be a bit overblown…

[jacksonianmarch]

Bloom is operating under the premise that he’s got the job forever. He wants to cut the team down to its core and rebuild it. This is a strategy that can work when you run a team that has no fans. Won’t work in Boston

[Hugh2]

So far Bloom has gotten rid of ALL high-priced guys and replaced them with "his" guys--generally cheaper and less productive. I'm curious--why do you think Devers' situation is different? That no one in the RS organization will say, "Hey, John. Look. Here's a way to put a couple of hundred million in your pocket." What in the past history of three years of so makes you think JH is committed to keeping him? Because everything I see suggests he will soon be gone and there will be plenty of teams willing to take on his contract.

 

- So, you're not willing to bet on it.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Dalbec thing might be a bit overblown…

 

To me it's symptomatic of Bloom's haphazard, by guess or by golly approach...

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom is operating under the premise that he’s got the job forever. He wants to cut the team down to its core and rebuild it. This is a strategy that can work when you run a team that has no fans. Won’t work in Boston

 

Right, in Boston that's a pure fantasy.

 

Plus, if you're really looking that far down the road, you don't throw away money on Story or Yoshida.

[moonslav59]

moon, I know I'm not using CERA numbers correctly. It's just that when numbers look truly bizarre I can't help being fascinated by them.

 

You have to admit that the disparity between McGuire's and Wong's CERA's is crazy stuff, despite the sample size issues.

 

2022 McGuire 6.33

2022 Wong 3.72

 

2023 McGuire 6.79

2023 Wong 4.20

 

Even the most disciplined stat analyzer has to think "Hmmm, that is a bit odd...".

 

So many catchers catch certain pitchers, almost exclusively or with total exclusivity. That makes a big difference in results. It's like comparing a pitchers numbers who faces Mike Trout 27 times a game vs another who faces Chang 27 times. One would expect a great disparity, no matter what the skill level of the pitcher was.

 

CERA is a stat that can only really be used to compare catchers on the same team who catch the same pitchers in large enough sample sizes. That makes it highly restrictive. In theory, you should throw out all stats from pitchers who only catch one catcher or the sample size with one catcher is way too small to judge. Then, RP'ers often have sample sizes that are too small to judge. That may leave just a handful of pitchers to compare how well they do with one catcher vs the other. If there seems to be a wide disparity, one can conclude one catcher might get more out of more pitchers than the other guy.

 

Sometimes, you see years and years of pretty consistent and often wide disparities between one catcher and the other- year by year, over and over (like Vtek vs our back-ups and Vaz v Leon and to a lesser extent between Vaz and Plawecki. When I see several disparities of 1.00 to 2.00 or more in CERAs, I draw conclusions. Others see the same numbers and do not draw the same conclusions.

 

In this 2023 case, what if Wong caught all of Sale's pitches, while McGuire caught Whitlock and Houck only? One can think maybe Sale would do better and Whitlock and Houck worse, but one can also wonder, if the CERA disparities would change drastically in McGuire's favor.

 

Towards the end of the year, we can compare- pitcher by pitcher- and see who shines more.

 

[mvp 78]

moon, I know I'm not using CERA numbers correctly. It's just that when numbers look truly bizarre I can't help being fascinated by them.

 

You have to admit that the disparity between McGuire's and Wong's CERA's is crazy stuff, despite the sample size issues.

 

2022 McGuire 6.33

2022 Wong 3.72

 

2023 McGuire 6.79

2023 Wong 4.20

 

Even the most disciplined stat analyzer has to think "Hmmm, that is a bit odd...".

 

No, because CERA is a nonsense stat and the sample size is extraordinarily small anyway.

[moonslav59]

Right, in Boston that's a pure fantasy.

 

Plus, if you're really looking that far down the road, you don't throw away money on Story or Yoshida.

 

If it was a five year plan, signing Yoshida, Story, Whitlock and Devers, recently does overlap into that window. You do need some vets mixed in.

 

Agree. Thinking Bloom feels the job is his forever is pure fantasy. No Red Sox GM ever thinks that. Well, maybe Theo did, then he bolted.

[moonslav59]

No, because CERA is a nonsense stat and the sample size is extraordinarily small anyway.

 

It is rare that you get enough large and balanced enough sample sizes between specific pitchers and catchers from the same team during the same season to compare, so unless you have this, using it in other ways is nonsense and pointless.

 

There have been some examples where the sample sizes are large enough with 5-7 pitchers in a given year, and one can see wide disparities, and when those disparities repeat year after year, I think some conclusions can be drawn, and it is not nonsense.

 

One can also look at OPSA numbers.

 

Would we call that COPSA?

[mvp 78]

Kluber pitched well enough with the Rays last year that Bloom made him our big starting pitching acquisition this year.

 

Any way you look at it, Bloom is responsible for this mess.

 

In order:

1. Henry 40% owns the checkbook, he set the initial limitations the put them on the downward spiral

2. Bloom 30% no plan up the middle or for starting rotation, messed up trading deadline last season

3. Coaching 20% got caught with pants down in O's series, fire Dave Bush, players do not seem prepared ever

4. Players 9% small sample size, but you still at least have to show up and compete

5. Youk 1% he's terrible

[mvp 78]

It is rare that you get enough large and balanced enough sample sizes between specific pitchers and catchers from the same team during the same season to compare, so unless you have this, using it in other ways is nonsense and pointless.

 

There have been some examples where the sample sizes are large enough with 5-7 pitchers in a given year, and one can see wide disparities, and when those disparities repeat year after year, I think some conclusions can be drawn, and it is not nonsense.

 

One can also look at OPSA numbers.

 

Would we call that COPSA?

 

You RAILED against VAZ for years about him being a bad catcher by comparing his CERA against other Sox catchers. He goes to HOU and MN and all of a sudden he's a CERA superstar? Do you see the problem here?

[notin]

To me it's symptomatic of Bloom's haphazard, by guess or by golly approach...

 

Or

 

1) Bloom doesn’t fill out the lineup cards.

2) Dalbec has two starts at shortstop that were roughly 45 games apart. The pattern here might not be as strong as you suspect.

[notin]

In order:

1. Henry 40% owns the checkbook, he set the initial limitations the put them on the downward spiral

2. Bloom 30% no plan up the middle or for starting rotation, messed up trading deadline last season

3. Coaching 20% got caught with pants down in O's series, fire Dave Bush, players do not seem prepared ever

4. Players 9% small sample size, but you still at least have to show up and compete

5. Youk 1% he's terrible

 

I think even 1% on Youk might be a bit high.

[Hugh2]

In order:

1. Henry 40% owns the checkbook, he set the initial limitations the put them on the downward spiral

2. Bloom 30% no plan up the middle or for starting rotation, messed up trading deadline last season

3. Coaching 20% got caught with pants down in O's series, fire Dave Bush, players do not seem prepared ever

4. Players 9% small sample size, but you still at least have to show up and compete

5. Youk 1% he's terrible

 

I the coaching needs more of the share pie, or at least Henry indirectly for not doing more to fix it. We are on about two decades of bad returns and almost ZERO ability to draft and develop pitchers.

[mvp 78]

I think even 1% on Youk might be a bit high.

 

I was rounding down!

[mvp 78]

I the coaching needs more of the share pie, or at least Henry indirectly for not doing more to fix it. We are on about two decades of bad returns and almost ZERO ability to draft and develop pitchers.

 

It's hard to split out the blame pie, but I think the coaching needs to be talked about more. We beat up on the players and Bloom, but it's not just how Cora sets up the lineup...

 

What has Dave Bush done to keep his job. This pitching staff has been downright horrible. What Brasier did on Opening Day was embarrassing. It showed a complete lack of foresight by the coaching staff. What pitchers have exceeded their expectations? Whitlock didn't become a better pitcher because of Bush, but because Andriese taught him a new changeup grip. Winckowski's stuff has "played up" in the pen this year as some people projected it would last season. Hard to put that on Bush. Every other pitcher is either pitching to their level or further below it.

 

Hitting wise, the players have sucked. Defense wise, the players have sucked. Part of that is roster construction, but part of that is how they have been coached day in and day out and series to series. If they fired each coach on the MLB squad, who would we be worried about losing?

[mvp 78]

Or

 

1) Bloom doesn’t fill out the lineup cards.

2) Dalbec has two starts at shortstop that were roughly 45 games apart. The pattern here might not be as strong as you suspect.

 

He played a bit of SS in Spring Training. He should have been playing SS in AAA if they really saw him as the first man up.

[Hugh2]

- So, you're not willing to bet on it.

 

P.S. your notion is 100% absurd. All the money Bloom had cleared out was expiring contracts or high-arb guys. There isn't one example where they've signed a guy of Dever's caliber and then turned around and traded him immediately within less than 1 year. The closest I can come to that is Agon, which is a different era, different president, and different gm.

 

I get Bloom has done much to welcome in critique, and I get that some fans are more upset than others. But if you're going to take that hate and just make nonsensical arguments based on nothing then others are going to call you out on it.

 

So I'll ask you again, shall we bet on this?

[moonslav59]

You RAILED against VAZ for years about him being a bad catcher by comparing his CERA against other Sox catchers. He goes to HOU and MN and all of a sudden he's a CERA superstar? Do you see the problem here?

 

Yes. The sample sizes at HOU and MN are tiny and lop-sided.

 

Also, I only railed about his CERA not that he was a bad catcher. I never wanted him benched or said he was an overall net negative value player.

[Bellhorn04]

Or

 

1) Bloom doesn’t fill out the lineup cards.

2) Dalbec has two starts at shortstop that were roughly 45 games apart. The pattern here might not be as strong as you suspect.

 

It's not just Dalbec. It's why the hell acquire Mondesi when he can't play for at least 2 months? Why not pay Andrus $3 mill?

 

It's a bunch of strange decisions that result in strange looking lineups and fielding configurations.

[Bellhorn04]

No, because CERA is a nonsense stat and the sample size is extraordinarily small anyway.

 

It is, however, 2 seasons of small but close to identical samples.

 

There's something weird going on, man.

 

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see who Cora starts on a game-to-game basis.

[a700hitter]

As attendance and viewership continue to plummet, Bloom’s fate will be sealed.

[moonslav59]

In order:

1. Henry 40% owns the checkbook, he set the initial limitations the put them on the downward spiral

2. Bloom 30% no plan up the middle or for starting rotation, messed up trading deadline last season

3. Coaching 20% got caught with pants down in O's series, fire Dave Bush, players do not seem prepared ever

4. Players 9% small sample size, but you still at least have to show up and compete

5. Youk 1% he's terrible

 

I hate to blame Henry, because he has been following a plan that has worked, although we are due for the next winning cycle, like yesterday, and demanding we trade Betts after he turned down a very fair offer is really nobody’s fault.

The massive budget cut and state of the farm in 2020, and the slow rise in spending until the Story signing makes it hard for me to blame Bloom or Cora. It just is what it is. I hate to blame add, too, because I like what he did, fully knowing a price would be paid, someday, and JH allowed him to do it all.

I guess I’m just not a big blame giving guy, but here is my take:

30% Henry’s budget cuts

25% DD’s residuals

20% Bloom

15% Players

10% Cora

[Bellhorn04]

As attendance and viewership continue to plummet, Bloom’s fate will be sealed.

 

And right now there's nothing he can do to fix it. He made his bed this offseason and is now lying in it.

[a700hitter]

And right now there's nothing he can do to fix it. He made his bed this offseason and is now lying in it.

losing baseball and a lack of exciting stars and players is a recipe for failure and doing this in back to back seasons damages the franchise.

[Bellhorn04]

I hate to blame Henry, because he has been following a plan that has worked, although we are due for the next winning cycle, like yesterday, and demanding we trade Betts after he turned down a very fair offer is really nobody’s fault.

The massive budget cut and state of the farm in 2020, and the slow rise in spending until the Story signing makes it hard for me to blame Bloom or Cora. It just is what it is. I hate to blame add, too, because I like what he did, fully knowing a price would be paid, someday, and JH allowed him to do it all.

I guess I’m just not a big blame giving guy, but here is my take:

30% Henry’s budget cuts

25% DD’s residuals

20% Bloom

15% Players

10% Cora

 

I'd go

 

55% Henry

35% Bloom

10% DD/Sale

 

Henry gets extra weight because he hired Bloom.

[a700hitter]

I hate to blame Henry, because he has been following a plan that has worked, although we are due for the next winning cycle, like yesterday, and demanding we trade Betts after he turned down a very fair offer is really nobody’s fault.

The massive budget cut and state of the farm in 2020, and the slow rise in spending until the Story signing makes it hard for me to blame Bloom or Cora. It just is what it is. I hate to blame add, too, because I like what he did, fully knowing a price would be paid, someday, and JH allowed him to do it all.

I guess I’m just not a big blame giving guy, but here is my take:

30% Henry’s budget cuts

25% DD’s residuals

20% Bloom

15% Players

10% Cora

I don’t think Henry will fire himself and he is not going to like seeing the franchise deteriorate, so the others will be fired.

[Hugh2]

I’d go

 

50% Henry (buck stops at the top) any percentage you can assign to anything else ultimately comes down to Henry e.g. he hired and retains Bloom

 

30% system wide (minors and majors) coaching and scouting. They’ve failed to turn out minor league talent into big leaguers more often in recent years and the pitching….needs no explanation.

 

15% Bloom - needs no explanation

 

5% players - they are what they are which is why it’s so low but they need some part of the blame pie as they’re ultimately the ones who win/lose games.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don’t think Henry will fire himself and he is not going to like seeing the franchise deteriorate, so the others will be fired.

 

Henry might see last place below the luxury tax as an improvement on '22. And he might tolerate the Red Sox fading into irrelevance compared to other Boston sports teams... as long as tourists still sing Sweet Caroline in Fenway all summer.

 

But Henry can't handle loud, offensive (to him) protests, from fans and media truly offended by his ballclub. By that time the Sox will be perceived as a joke by national media, which will quote or air ridicule from AL rivals that will inevitably lead to a nasty basebrawl on TV. That will be the point of no return. Then he'll clean house.

[mvp 78]

It's not just Dalbec. It's why the hell acquire Mondesi when he can't play for at least 2 months? Why not pay Andrus $3 mill?

 

It's a bunch of strange decisions that result in strange looking lineups and fielding configurations.

 

Mondesi is fine IF YOU AREN'T RELYING ON HIM TO PROVIDE MEANINGFUL INNINGS. Right now, Josh Taylor is in AAA with a 6.75 AAA, so the trade makes sense. The issue is that they still needed another SS option that could be available to actually play.