2022 Bullpen Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Take the bottom most performer out and replace him with our best prospect? Is it Bello? Just a thought and perhaps too early to consider at this point.

 

I have the utmost confidence in Bloom and Cora to make good decisions.

 

It sure is nice to see some of our pitching prospects get off to good starts on the farm.

[moonslav59]

I have the utmost confidence in Bloom and Cora to make good decisions.

 

It sure is nice to see some of our pitching prospects get off to good starts on the farm.

 

Agreed.

 

I'm not sure they'd jump Bello or Groome from AA ahead of Winckowksi, Seabold, DHern or Pannone (not on 40.)- all of whom are also doing well.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

I'm not sure they'd jump Bello or Groome from AA ahead of Winckowksi, Seabold, DHern or Pannone (not on 40.)- all of whom are also doing well.

 

I don't think so either. I think Bello and Groome see considerable time in AAA before being called up.

 

Pannone is nothing but emergency depth. Being a local boy, I hope he gets called up.

[notin]

I don't think so either. I think Bello and Groome see considerable time in AAA before being called up.

 

Pannone is nothing but emergency depth. Being a local boy, I hope he gets called up.

 

Pannone’s brief MLB career is not littered with success.

 

He’s the type of pitcher whose career was jeopardized by the 3-batter minimum rule, because without it he might have been able to patch together a decent LOOGY career. He kind of reminds me of Brian Shouse…

[moonslav59]

I don't think so either. I think Bello and Groome see considerable time in AAA before being called up.

 

Pannone is nothing but emergency depth. Being a local boy, I hope he gets called up.

 

Not being on the 40 man roster hurts. He'll have to really shine for 4-6 more starts to be considered, IMO.

[Kimmi]

Personally, I would have signed the Syndergaard and Suzuki deals. I would have passed on adding Paxton and either Hill or Wacha.

 

It comes down to what the long term plan is. If Raffy and Xander still walk out the door, I can't say I'll be happy about the lack of spending.

 

I would have done either of those deals also. We don't know the details behind what went on with those deals. Maybe Bloom was close but those players decided they wanted to play elsewhere. Maybe Bloom was more focused on extensions for Whitlock, Devers, and Bogaerts.

 

One way or another, the Red Sox will continue to spend. It may not be a big contract like the type Devers is reportedly seeking, but they will continue to spend.

 

FTR, I love Devers as much as anyone does. I would not give him a $300 million contract in excess of 8 years though.

[Kimmi]

If you keeping throwing things against the wall sooner, or later something will stick. The pile on the floor keeps getting bigger though.

 

That's okay. You're not concerned with the pile on the floor. Just the stuff that sticks.

[moonslav59]

I would have done either of those deals also. We don't know the details behind what went on with those deals. Maybe Bloom was close but those players decided they wanted to play elsewhere. Maybe Bloom was more focused on extensions for Whitlock, Devers, and Bogaerts.

 

One way or another, the Red Sox will continue to spend. It may not be a big contract like the type Devers is reportedly seeking, but they will continue to spend.

 

FTR, I love Devers as much as anyone does. I would not give him a $300 million contract in excess of 8 years though.

 

Would you give him $290M/14?

[Kimmi]

Would you give him $290M/14?

 

Not a chance. If anything, I'm going with a higher AAV and fewer years.

[moonslav59]

Not a chance. If anything, I'm going with a higher AAV and fewer years.

 

So, you'd rather pay $240M/8 than $290/14?

[Bellhorn04]

So, you'd rather pay $240M/8 than $290/14?

 

These are some fun math riddles you're coming up with.

 

I think I would definitely rather pay $220/8 than $290/14.

[Old Red]

These are some fun math riddles you're coming up with.

 

I think I would definitely rather pay $220/8 than $290/14.

 

The only question that counts is what is the Red Sox willing to pay, and I don’t see anyone of these.

[Bellhorn04]

The only question that counts is what is the Red Sox willing to pay, and I don’t see anyone of these.

 

We're talking about Devers now. You don't think they would offer him $220/8?

[mvp 78]

Not a chance. If anything, I'm going with a higher AAV and fewer years.

 

I agree with this option.

[Old Red]

We're talking about Devers now. You don't think they would offer him $220/8?

 

At this point I don’t know what the Red Sox are willing to do. The Sox May do the $220/8, but I think it is way below what Raffy would take. I would like to see both Bogey, and Raffy stay, but I’m not paying Bogey $200M, and I’m not paying Raffy $300M. On the other hand if the Bogey contract offer rumor is anything close to being true that is not a slap in the face, but a total body blow.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We're talking about Devers now. You don't think they would offer him $220/8?

 

They may already have. But he rightfully considers himself a $30 million per year player, which is the going rate for a top of the industry bat at his position.

 

With the Red Sox, it's never about whether they are big market spenders. As many posters love to point out, Boston's payroll is one of the top three/four/five/whatever every single year. What this is all about -- what other posters continually counter -- is that the Sox keep changing budget plans, sometimes to align with trends, sometimes to defy trends.

 

Bloom can give Story $23+ AAV, but then offers Bogaerts only $22.5 AAV? How blatantly disrespectful; it's like they're intentionally forcing him out the door (which may very well be the intention, to get X to soon waive his no-trade clause -- so Bloom will get something back instead of letting him walk for nothing).

 

Seriously, how hard would it be to at least offer Bogie $25 AAV? They know Boras will reject anything less than $30 anyway, but at least the Red Sox wouldn't be spitting into the face of the franchise...

[Bellhorn04]

They may already have. But he rightfully considers himself a $30 million per year player, which is the going rate for a top of the industry bat at his position.

 

With the Red Sox, it's never about whether they are big market spenders. As many posters love to point out, Boston's payroll is one of the top three/four/five/whatever every single year. What this is all about -- what other posters continually counter -- is that the Sox keep changing budget plans, sometimes to align with trends, sometimes to defy trends.

 

I fail to see how point #2 trumps point #1.

 

Their projected payroll for CBT purposes this year is $242 million.

 

They're still spending.

 

We can argue about how they spend it, but that's a different argument.

[Bellhorn04]

They may already have. But he rightfully considers himself a $30 million per year player, which is the going rate for a top of the industry bat at his position.

 

Not if you're only getting the bat. You'll have to find a comp who's a below-average fielder.

[Old Red]

They may already have. But he rightfully considers himself a $30 million per year player, which is the going rate for a top of the industry bat at his position.

 

With the Red Sox, it's never about whether they are big market spenders. As many posters love to point out, Boston's payroll is one of the top three/four/five/whatever every single year. What this is all about -- what other posters continually counter -- is that the Sox keep changing budget plans, sometimes to align with trends, sometimes to defy trends.

 

Bloom can give Story $23+ AAV, but then offers Bogaerts only $22.5 AAV? How blatantly disrespectful; it's like they're intentionally forcing him out the door (which may very well be the intention, to get X to soon waive his no-trade clause -- so Bloom will get something back instead of letting him walk for nothing).

 

Seriously, how hard would it be to at least offer Bogie $25 AAV? They know Boras will reject anything less than $30 anyway, but at least the Red Sox wouldn't be spitting into the face of the franchise...

 

If the Bogey offer is true they didn’t offer him a new contract, but only added 1 more year to it at $30M to bring the last 4 years of his contract to $90M. That is more than blatantly disrespectful with all Bogey has done for the Red Sox.

[Kimmi]

So, you'd rather pay $240M/8 than $290/14?

 

Well, that's a bigger difference in AAV than I was talking about. But to answer your question, yes, I would prefer the former.

 

With the $290/14 having an AAV of just over $20M, I'd go with something like $200/8 with an AAV of $25M.

[Kimmi]

At this point I don’t know what the Red Sox are willing to do. The Sox May do the $220/8, but I think it is way below what Raffy would take. I would like to see both Bogey, and Raffy stay, but I’m not paying Bogey $200M, and I’m not paying Raffy $300M. On the other hand if the Bogey contract offer rumor is anything close to being true that is not a slap in the face, but a total body blow.

 

I think the Sox would offer Devers $220/8. That's reasonable. I don't think there's a chance that Devers accepts that, however.

 

I pretty much agree with your post.

[moonslav59]

These are some fun math riddles you're coming up with.

 

I think I would definitely rather pay $220/8 than $290/14.

 

You would not pay Devers $5M x 6 years added to the end of his contract at ages 31 to 36? To me, that's a steal.

 

The added benefit is that it radically brings down the AVV, and he will likely be a good DH during years 9 to 14.

[Kimmi]

They may already have. But he rightfully considers himself a $30 million per year player, which is the going rate for a top of the industry bat at his position.

 

With the Red Sox, it's never about whether they are big market spenders. As many posters love to point out, Boston's payroll is one of the top three/four/five/whatever every single year. What this is all about -- what other posters continually counter -- is that the Sox keep changing budget plans, sometimes to align with trends, sometimes to defy trends.

 

Bloom can give Story $23+ AAV, but then offers Bogaerts only $22.5 AAV? How blatantly disrespectful; it's like they're intentionally forcing him out the door (which may very well be the intention, to get X to soon waive his no-trade clause -- so Bloom will get something back instead of letting him walk for nothing).

 

Seriously, how hard would it be to at least offer Bogie $25 AAV? They know Boras will reject anything less than $30 anyway, but at least the Red Sox wouldn't be spitting into the face of the franchise...

 

Outside of the Dombrowski years, when Henry went against his philosophy of not signing a pitcher in his 30s to a big contract, I think the Sox have been pretty consistent with their budget plans. I'm not seeing that they keep changing their budget plans. The fact that they might sign one player to a 5 year deal, then pass on another player for 5 years is not a change in plans. It's more a matter of circumstances.

 

As far as the speculated offer to Bogaerts, first off, I don't think it's accurate. However, if it is accurate, I agree that it is quite disrespectful to Bogaerts. Dare I say it's a head scratcher.

[Old Red]

Outside of the Dombrowski years, when Henry went against his philosophy of not signing a pitcher in his 30s to a big contract, I think the Sox have been pretty consistent with their budget plans. I'm not seeing that they keep changing their budget plans. The fact that they might sign one player to a 5 year deal, then pass on another player for 5 years is not a change in plans. It's more a matter of circumstances.

 

As far as the speculated offer to Bogaerts, first off, I don't think it's accurate. However, if it is accurate, I agree that it is quite disrespectful to Bogaerts. Dare I say it's a head scratcher.

 

If the offer to Bogey was not true then the Red Sox better come out, and refute it now, because it makes the Red Sox look small, and cheap, and the talk will not go away, and be out there all year. Good strategy to put the news, or rumor out there just before the home opener by the Bogey camp. Bogey should get quite an ovation today when introduced.

[Kimmi]

You would not pay Devers $5M x 6 years added to the end of his contract at ages 31 to 36? To me, that's a steal.

 

The added benefit is that it radically brings down the AVV, and he will likely be a good DH during years 9 to 14.

 

It's not just $5M x 6 years. I know that's what the difference in the two contracts amounts to, but for payroll purposes, it's still $20M a year. And that would be a time when Devers is likely in decline and no longer living up to the value of the contract. To me, those extra 6 years are a huge deal breaker. I get the benefit of lowering the AAV for the luxury tax, but I'd rather pay a player more for his most productive years and not have to worry about how to deal with him at the tail end of a long contract.

 

It's very possible that Devers is still quite productive. It's just as possible that he won't be. Miguel Cabrera immediately comes to mind.

[moonslav59]

Well, that's a bigger difference in AAV than I was talking about. But to answer your question, yes, I would prefer the former.

 

With the $290/14 having an AAV of just over $20M, I'd go with something like $200/8 with an AAV of $25M.

 

We all know, he won't take $200/8 or even $220/8.

 

My point about offering him 12-14 years is about finding a way we might keep him, while also lowering the AVV. I get the risk of signing anyone to even 10 years, let alone 12-14, but at his age, it's not so crazy. The difference between $220/8 and $320/14 is that he might take the $320, and we keep a valuable & loveable player.

 

The "extra $100M" can be viewed as paying that for his final 6 years. That's under $17M a year for ages 33-38. Sure, that looks like a big gamble, but with inflation and the added benefit of dropping the AVV from $27.5 to $22.9 allows us to more easily reset every now and then over the first 8 years of the deal. Of course the last 6 might be a burden, but it might not, if Devers ages well..

 

[moonslav59]

It's not just $5M x 6 years. I know that's what the difference in the two contracts amounts to, but for payroll purposes, it's still $20M a year. And that would be a time when Devers is likely in decline and no longer living up to the value of the contract. To me, those extra 6 years are a huge deal breaker. I get the benefit of lowering the AAV for the luxury tax, but I'd rather pay a player more for his most productive years and not have to worry about how to deal with him at the tail end of a long contract.

 

It's very possible that Devers is still quite productive. It's just as possible that he won't be. Miguel Cabrera immediately comes to mind.

 

But paying Devers just $20M, when he's worth nearly $30M for the first 8 years makes up for the last 6.

 

Miggy is not making $20M, and when you figure inflation and when Miggy was signed, this is apples to oranges.

[Kimmi]

If the offer to Bogey was not true then the Red Sox better come out, and refute it now, because it makes the Red Sox look small, and cheap, and the talk will not go away, and be out there all year. Good strategy to put the news, or rumor out there just before the home opener by the Bogey camp. Bogey should get quite an ovation today when introduced.

 

It's really hard to know what's going on. Is one side trying to make the other side look bad? With the Judge situation, the words came straight from the horse's mouth. With this situation, we don't know who the source was.

 

My guess is that the offer was better than what's being reported, but still quite short of what Bogaerts is looking for. My guess is that Bogaerts is feeling a bit disrespected by the offer. My guess is that Bogaerts is hoping for $30M a year and I don't think the Sox will grant that.

[Bellhorn04]

You would not pay Devers $5M x 6 years added to the end of his contract at ages 31 to 36? To me, that's a steal.

 

The added benefit is that it radically brings down the AVV, and he will likely be a good DH during years 9 to 14.

 

I think you're a little too focused on AAV.

 

Have we not learned that having dead money on the books for a period of years is not a lot of fun?

[Kimmi]

We all know, he won't take $200/8 or even $220/8.

 

My point about offering him 12-14 years is about finding a way we might keep him, while also lowering the AVV. I get the risk of signing anyone to even 10 years, let alone 12-14, but at his age, it's not so crazy. The difference between $220/8 and $320/14 is that he might take the $320, and we keep a valuable & loveable player.

 

The "extra $100M" can be viewed as paying that for his final 6 years. That's under $17M a year for ages 33-38. Sure, that looks like a big gamble, but with inflation and the added benefit of dropping the AVV from $27.5 to $22.9 allows us to more easily reset every now and then over the first 8 years of the deal. Of course the last 6 might be a burden, but it might not, if Devers ages well..

 

 

I understand where you're coming from. We all really hope we can keep Devers. For me, there is a limit to how much I would pay him. Also for me, the number of years is more important than the AAV. I cannot see offering more than 8 years, despite the advantage of lowering the AAV.

 

If the Sox do give Devers a 10 or 14 year contract, I will embrace Devers and happily welcome his long term stay with us. At the same time, I will shudder at the contract.