2022 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Marcelo Mayer taking some bp

 

Nice swing.

 

Maybe this guy will jump levels and arrive sooner than we even hope for (not this year, of course.)

[mvp 78]

@SmittyOnMLB

Alex Binelas, David Hamilton, Boston Red Sox prospects from Hunter Renfroe trade, will attend 2022 winter camp

[jacksonianmarch]

How do you think Cashman's strategy will work out if they institute an international draft? Will that be better for the Yanks? Worse?

 

Far worse. Cashman has two things going for him. The Yankee name and the ability of the development staff to find diamonds in the rough for peanuts. He always makes a huge splash and then the development staff seems to find one or two kids a year who rise fast and got less than $50K

[mvp 78]

@OverTheMonster

Brayan Bello made BA's list of 15 players who just missed their top 100.

[moonslav59]

@OverTheMonster

Brayan Bello made BA's list of 15 players who just missed their top 100.

 

Were any Yankees on the just missed list?

 

Being so deep and all, I'd expect 14 names.

[mvp 78]

I don't think so.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd assume Gil made it

[moonslav59]

I'd assume Gil made it

 

So, now we are talking deep beyond 115.

Edited January 22, 2022 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

Were any Yankees on the just missed list?

 

Being so deep and all, I'd expect 14 names.

 

The 2021 trading deadline thinned their system out a lot. Probably not top 10 anymore, but still probably pretty good.

[moonslav59]

The 2021 trading deadline thinned their system out a lot. Probably not top 10 anymore, but still probably pretty good.

 

That was my point to jacko.

 

Again, they may be deeper after the top 100 or 120, but not by as much as before, and I think we passed them, overall, on the strength of our top 4-5 prospects.

 

We also have some young prospects that could rise sharply, this summer. (Doesn't it sound nice saying, "This summer?")

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1486438036820873218

[mvp 78]

@OverTheMonster

Keith Law is a bit lower on the Red Sox farm system than Baseball America. The latter had them ranked 11th in baseball, while Law has them down at 20.

[moonslav59]

@OverTheMonster

Keith Law is a bit lower on the Red Sox farm system than Baseball America. The latter had them ranked 11th in baseball, while Law has them down at 20.

 

Where did Law have us, last year?

[Hugh2]

@OverTheMonster

Keith Law is a bit lower on the Red Sox farm system than Baseball America. The latter had them ranked 11th in baseball, while Law has them down at 20.

 

Keith Law is always lower on the Sox for some reason, I don't understand why (NY fan). He's reasonable in the player to player evaluation however but I think it's absurd that we go from 20th last year to staying put at 20th this year. The farm system is much better going into 2022 than it was last year and that's not even a close thing.

[Hugh2]

Where did Law have us, last year?

 

20th, same spot. He is effectively saying the Sox farm didn't budge....which is absurd.

[mvp 78]

20th, same spot. He is effectively saying the Sox farm didn't budge....which is absurd.

 

I don't think any prospects graduated except for Houck and they added from a draft that included Marcel Mayer. Doesn't make sense to me.

[mvp 78]

Four Boston Red Sox prospects made Keith Law’s Top 100 prospect list released Monday on The Athletic.

 

Shorstop Marcelo Mayer led all Red Sox prospects at No. 18 on the list. Second baseman Nick Yorke, who went unranked in Law’s previous rankings, is listed No. 37.

 

First baseman Triston Casas jumped 31 spots in the rankings to No. 56.

 

Right-handed pitcher Bryan Bello, who previously went unranked, is listed at No. 86.

 

Yorke was out of the top 100. Casas jumped 31 spots. Bello in the top 100. But the Sox are still 20th? Maybe he saw Duran and Downs play poorly and that offset the gains? IDK.

[moonslav59]

I don't think any prospects graduated except for Houck and they added from a draft that included Marcel Mayer. Doesn't make sense to me.

 

The fact that he has 4 of our prospects in his top 86, makes it seem like he's messing up on one end or the other.

 

I get the fact that are farm is not super deep, but it's not void of hopefuls beyond #4.

[notin]

I suppose other farms may have also improved…

[moonslav59]

I suppose other farms may have also improved…

 

It doesn't make sense.

 

He says are pitching is the best it's been in a long time. He ranks 4 in his top 100 (2 better than last year), and we did not exactly get weaker in depth beyond the top 100.

 

IMO, he has more "splainin' to do." What harmony posted does not go far enough.

[notin]

It doesn't make sense.

 

He says are pitching is the best it's been in a long time. He ranks 4 in his top 100 (2 better than last year), and we did not exactly get weaker in depth beyond the top 100.

 

IMO, he has more "splainin' to do." What harmony posted does not go far enough.

 

It doesn’t appear to make sense, but that’s because we only use comparative methods of evaluating it.

 

Let’s say the Sox farm had 100 future fWAR in it. And that total was good for the 20th best future fWAR from any farm. Then after the draft and a couple trades (and some player development), the Sox are able to add 15 more fWAR. But then after the draft and the trade deadline last year, so are the 19 teams in front of Boston. So now it’s still 20th. But did the farm improve?

[moonslav59]

It doesn’t appear to make sense, but that’s because we only use comparative methods of evaluating it.

 

Let’s say the Sox farm had 100 future fWAR in it. And that total was good for the 20th best future fWAR from any farm. Then after the draft and a couple trades (and some player development), the Sox are able to add 15 more fWAR. But then after the draft and the trade deadline last year, so are the 19 teams in front of Boston. So now it’s still 20th. But did the farm improve?

 

How many other teams went from 2 prospects near 5oth to 4 in the top 90? They can't all gain 2 slots.

 

Plus, it was his comment about the Sox pitching being better than it has been in ages, and only Bello was in his top 100. That makes it look like he thinks we are deep in at least one area.

 

I get how rankings involve other teams, who may or may not have improved over last year, but a lot of players graduated, last year, too.

 

I still think he owes a deeper explanation.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Some of these guys maybe focus too much on top prospects when evaluating entire systems. Mayer should automatically elevate Boston's status, but it's also not hard to imagine national scribes possibly overlooking overall depth beyond the top 100 or 150 hopefuls...

 

... it's also not hard to imagine a guy like Blaze Jordan or just one of the two true targets (power or speed) in the Renfroe trade taking big steps up the minor league ladder this year.

[moonslav59]

Some of these guys maybe focus too much on top prospects when evaluating entire systems. Mayer should automatically elevate Boston's status, but it's also not hard to imagine national scribes possibly overlooking overall depth beyond the top 100 or 150 hopefuls...

 

... it's also not hard to imagine a guy like Blaze Jordan or just one of the two true targets (power or speed) in the Renfroe trade taking big steps up the minor league ladder this year.

 

We also added Hamilton, Binelas, McDonough, Hickey and others.

 

I'm sure other teams added more depth, but it's not like we took a step back beyond the top 100-150.

[notin]

We also added Hamilton, Binelas, McDonough, Hickey and others.

 

I'm sure other teams added more depth, but it's not like we took a step back beyond the top 100-150.

 

 

The Sox farm definitely got deeper, but that doesn’t mean it improved past anyone else’s just yet…

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball America's ranking is obviously the correct one.

 

Keith Law can take a hike.

[moonslav59]

The Sox farm definitely got deeper, but that doesn’t mean it improved past anyone else’s just yet…

 

I get your point about other teams likely improving, too, but again, who else gained 2 in the top 100 while holding firm on depth. (Also, if a few teams also added a couple to the top 100, some teams lost a player or two.

 

Our graduated players were not all that highly ranked, last year.

 

All I'm saying is that I think Law needs a more in depth explanation for his failure to move us up even 1 slot.

 

I'm not buying the "drops" by Duran and Downs offset the additions and improving player by enough to keep us at #20.

[moonslav59]

Last Year's April 1st top 20 by soxprospects.com:

 

Casas

Downs

Mata

Groome

Jimenez

Dalbec

Duran

Houck (was not as highly regarded as some remember, at that time)

Song

Chatham

Ward

Wong

Zeferjahn

A Ramirez (traded away)

Lugo

Murphy

Decker

Cannon

Bello

Bonaci

 

NOV 20, 2021

Casas

Mayer

Yorke

Duran

Downs

Bello

Jordan

Groome

Jimenez

Mata

Seabold

Gonzalez

Winckowski

Murphy

Bleis

Wong

Walter

Song

Ward

McDonough

(We added Binelas who was slotted #18 and Hamilton at #26.)

[moonslav59]

An overview of the difference between the February minor leaguers from 2021 to 2022 might be summed up like this:

 

Our depth beyond the top 10-12 is better, now. Maybe everybody's is due to COVID keeping prospects from playing in 2020.

 

Lets assume Casas is about the same, although one could argue he's a better prospect, now.

 

Mayer and Yorke replaced Downs and Mata as our 2-3. That's a huge improvement, IMO.

 

Duran and Downs were pushed down by those two, and some could argue their stock took a hit- large or small.

 

Dalbec and Houck we never all that highly regarded, so losing them to graduation should not have offset the rise of Bello, Jordan, Seabold and others.

 

Groome was #4 last winter. He didn't have a bad 2021, but he has slipped #8. (I actually like his chances more, now, than last winter.)

 

Mata dropped due to surgery, and that is common (same with Ward.)

 

I can see how other teams have also seen their farm grow and improve, alongside ours, but I just can't see how Law ranks us the same as last year.

[mvp 78]

The Sox farm definitely got deeper, but that doesn’t mean it improved past anyone else’s just yet…

 

Did everyone else's farm system improve just as much?