Red Sox trade Hunter Renfroe in trade involving Jackie Bradley Jr

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. That’s been out of print for 10-15 years.

 

Of purse box scores are nothing but metrics…

 

I think there's something about the word 'metrics' that bugs a lot of people.

[notin]

I have looked it up of course. Many times. And you still did not answer in plain language how you calculate base-running. And how your calculations differ from 'the eye test'. Here, for example, is one of many explanations of how 'runs scored' is calculated: "For batting runs we use a linear weights system based on Tom Tango's wOBA (weighted on-base average) framework, but we add a number of improvements to our calculation of wRAA (weighted runs above average)." Please explain that in a manner that will convince an average reader that you understand it.

 

Again this is baiting.

 

I don’t “calculate” any of it. I don’t have to. It’s been done.

 

I also have faith in the people who did the math and that they know what they’re doing.

 

This kind of thing has been seriously beaten to death, and usually by people who prefer simpler metrics that, IMO, are often more misleading…

[notin]

I think there's something about the word 'metrics' that bugs a lot of people.

 

Baseball stats have always faced weird scrutinies. The Eye Test crowd likes ERA, for example. ERA was not exactly accepted right away, either…

[jad]

Again this is baiting.

 

I don’t “calculate” any of it. I don’t have to. It’s been done.

 

I also have faith in the people who did the math and that they know what they’re doing.

 

This kind of thing has been seriously beaten to death, and usually by people who prefer simpler metrics that, IMO, are often more misleading…

 

OK. You "have faith in the people who did the math," even though you won't explain the basis of the math. Whereas all the stats/math that you can understand and easily explain (BA, OPS, etc.), you reject. That answers my question.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I actually have accepted WAR, even if the average fan cannot calculate their favorite players' "values" as fast as updating batting averages after a 3-for-4 game. But I'm also about qualitative data, so I accept there are non-statistical reasons factoring into player evaluations. It's maybe why Orlando Cepeda was voted unanimous NL MVP in 1967 -- even though three other position players had superior WAR totals.

 

I certainly defer to the observers who voted in '67, even if they were beat writers who only saw Cepeda play in person the 18 times his Cardinals faced their assigned clubs... or maybe they had working relationships with others in daily contact with St. Louis, who could directly attest to Cepeda's value in the dugout, in the clubhouse, and on the airplanes as a difference-maker.

 

As always, the MVP is a controversial award, based on individual interpretation, and trends. Half a century ago, catchers on pennant winners always seemed to fare well on the ballots, because their position is so vital in making a winner. It's hard to believe that concept has changed, and that there's more emphasis on batting stats -- especially since big league hitters are worse than ever, at least in making contact.

[notin]

Bradley has already f***ed up quite a few plays with the Jay's already on defense. And yes the mistake was trading for him. Renfroe alone is out producing the Sox outfield this year

 

Seriously? “He made errors!!” The Sox OF defense was good when it was Verdugo-Kike-Bradley.

 

And Renfroe is simply not the same level defensively as Bradley. The Sox acquired Bradley to improve OF defense. He did that. And the team was better when he was there. But too many got caught up in his lack of offense.

 

And as for Renfroe, who cares any more? Yes he’s hitting home runs in that Milwaukee bandbox that’s so small it turned Jonathan Villar into a slugger. And I’m sure his defense looks better in a right field with so little area that Stephen Hawking could patrol it. He was simply not meant for Fenway RF. He showed several reasons why last year…

[jad]

Baseball stats have always faced weird scrutinies. The Eye Test crowd likes ERA, for example. ERA was not exactly accepted right away, either…

 

ERA has always seemed misleading to me. But like other basic, easily calculated stats, it gains in credibility as it confirms/approximates what other stats say. (Of course to judge a stat/piece of evidence solely on the basis of how it conforms to other stats, is completely circular.)

[notin]

Yes the eye test has noticed that, and on the game thread last night I suggested Dugy back in LF, Kike in CF, and the Ref Man in RF with Pham the DH.

 

So why do you suppose Cora keeps putting that OF out there incorrectly?

[notin]

ERA has always seemed misleading to me. But like other basic, easily calculated stats, it gains in credibility as it confirms/approximates what other stats say. (Of course to judge a stat/piece of evidence solely on the basis of how it conforms to other stats, is completely circular.)

 

 

ERA is very misleading because it’s often looked at as a measure of ability and not accomplishment. It depends heavily on the lineup behind a pitcher and the formula is simple and seems to make sense, except it really doesn’t.

 

But it has the advantage of being recognized and relatable. Tell a casual man a pitcher has a 3.00 ERA, he or she can grasp that concept not only about the pitcher, but also in relation to other pitchers. Tell that same fan a pitcher has a (far more informative) 85 FIP-, and you’ll notice the concept was not likely understood. And it’s odd because FIP- actually tells us a lot more about a pitcher than ERA, and arguably tells you things you think ERA tells you…

[Old Red]

So why do you suppose Cora keeps putting that OF out there incorrectly?

 

Why was Duran put out in CF everyday when he should have been down in the instructional league learning how to track, and catch a fly ball, or Franchy trying to pretend he was a 1B? Why, why, why Nancy Kerrigan.

[Hugh2]

Why was Duran put out in CF everyday when he should have been down in the instructional league learning how to track, and catch a fly ball, or Franchy trying to pretend he was a 1B? Why, why, why Nancy Kerrigan.

 

Then who plays CF? Kike hurt, JBJ gone, Pham was t here until recently (also not a CFer). Letting go of JBJ was stupid, especially if it didn’t free up any money.

[notin]

Why was Duran put out in CF everyday when he should have been down in the instructional league learning how to track, and catch a fly ball, or Franchy trying to pretend he was a 1B? Why, why, why Nancy Kerrigan.

 

Most of those are because they were Plan C and D.

 

Amazing how the Duran Advocates from 2021 now think he needs to go play down below A ball in 2022. The ol’ Eye Test must have been on the fritz in 2021.

 

The answer to why Cora lines them up wrong is “he doesn’t. He knows more about them as players than we do.”

[Old Red]

Then who plays CF? Kike hurt, JBJ gone, Pham was t here until recently (also not a CFer). Letting go of JBJ was stupid, especially if it didn’t free up any money.

 

JBJ was still there when Duran looked like a 12 yr old trying to catch butterflies out there.

[Old Red]

Most of those are because they were Plan C and D.

 

Amazing how the Duran Advocates from 2021 now think he needs to go play down below A ball in 2022. The ol’ Eye Test must have been on the fritz in 2021.

 

The answer to why Cora lines them up wrong is “he doesn’t. He knows more about them as players than we do.”

 

I was never a Duran Advocate, but I did say he should be given a chance to show if we has anything, and now we know. Still some on here pencil him in a possibility in LF next year. WOW!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I was never a Duran Advocate, but I did say he should be given a chance to show if we has anything, and now we know. Still some on here pencil him in a possibility in LF next year. WOW!

 

There is no mocking the eye test when it comes to Duran. A year ago, when a few posters said he was a lousy outfielder based on scouting reports and metrics, I noted that I hadn't seen anything wrong with his defense in the few MLB games he played.

 

But now we've seen plenty. Duran misjudges fly balls, pop-ups and line drives. I'd say it almost looks like he has vision problems -- did KC fans really throw bottle caps; what ballpark even sells bottles with bottle caps anymore? But vision issues don't excuse last night -- after he misread a liner, dove for the bounce, and bobbled the carom -- he threw home when the baserunner was about five feet from the plate, thus gifting the batter a waltz into second and scoring position...

 

And Sam Kennedy says the Red Sox have big plans for Duran... did he mean the-band-the-band in concert at Fenway?

Edited August 20, 2022 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[Old Red]

There is no mocking the eye test when it comes to Duran. A year ago, when a few posters said he was a lousy outfielder based on scouting reports and metrics, I noted that I hadn't seen anything wrong with his defense in the few MLB games he played.

 

But now we've seen plenty. Duran misjudges fly balls, pop-ups and line drives. I'd say it almost looks like he has vision problems -- did KC fans really throw bottle caps; what ballpark even sells bottles with bottle caps anymore? But vision issues don't excuse last night -- after he misread a liner, dove for the bounce, and bobbled the carom -- he threw home when the baserunner was about five feet from the plate, thus gifting the batter to waltz into second and scoring position...

Last year he didn’t play in many games, and didn’t look as bad in the OF, but this year the more he played the worse he looked. He’s not an OF, and it’s not like his bat is that good either. Run Forrest run is pretty much all he is good at, but he has to get on base first, and then if he doesn’t get picked off he is fast.

[notin]

I was never a Duran Advocate, but I did say he should be given a chance to show if we has anything, and now we know. Still some on here pencil him in a possibility in LF next year. WOW!

 

Sure you were. Even once saying “he won’t be a complete butcher out there.”

 

It’s ok to admit it. I’ve been one, too.

 

Hell most of Red Sox Nation viewed this guy as the Savior 15 months ago. Jarren just hasn’t backed it up, but he does have his occasional moment…

[moonslav59]

I loved the Old Sporting News. I also loved Baseball Digest.

 

Now here's a question: is reading a box score part of the eye-test?

 

That's what I was asking.

 

I always thought "eye test" meant actual observations- live or on TV.

 

If it means looking at box scores, I don't see that as being much different than looking at data or metric spreadsheets.

[moonslav59]

Limit your statistical reading. Too much of anything can be a bad thing. Pick 4 stats that you like the most and go with them. Keeps headaches to a minimum. Plus the fact that you might not become a pain in the ass to others by trying to impress them with a solid grasp of possibly some useless information.

 

Useless to you, maybe, because you want to avoid headaches, but to others the 4 stats you choose create headaches of their own, as no stat is perfect or a true reflection of the whole value of a player. Is one of your 4 stats- chosen a fielding one? If not, isn't that missing a significant part of a player's true or comparative value? I don't mean to give you a headache over this, but even errors are scored by a human just like the UZR/150 observers and DRS metric nerds are doing, but in a more in-depth manner.

 

BA & HRs are park influenced, strength of opponent influenced and more. RBIs are largely a product or how many runners were on base or in scoring position for one guy vs another. Sometimes, those factor disparities are great. Does it give you a headache trying to make those adjustments in your head, or do you just count Ruths HRs in left-friendly Yankees Stadium exactly the same as Williams'?

[Old Red]

That's what I was asking.

 

I always thought "eye test" meant actual observations- live or on TV.

 

If it means looking at box scores, I don't see that as being much different than looking at data or metric spreadsheets.

Where did it ever say that looking at box scores was part of the eye test once again trying to over analyze, and Slop 101.

[Old Red]

Sure you were. Even once saying “he won’t be a complete butcher out there.”

 

It’s ok to admit it. I’ve been one, too.

 

Hell most of Red Sox Nation viewed this guy as the Savior 15 months ago. Jarren just hasn’t backed it up, but he does have his occasional moment…

Did I say to give him a chance to see what he’s got, and he won’t be a complete butcher out there? I know how some always leave out part on the phrase on here.

[moonslav59]

Sure you were. Even once saying “he won’t be a complete butcher out there.”

 

It’s ok to admit it. I’ve been one, too.

 

Hell most of Red Sox Nation viewed this guy as the Savior 15 months ago. Jarren just hasn’t backed it up, but he does have his occasional moment…

 

The Sox get bashed for holding off promotions for too long.

They get bashed for giving young players too short a look or too long a look.

 

On Duran, his defense was exactly what many of us feared and pointed out it would be.

 

His bat has looked worse than many of us expected, but he only has about 300 PAs. His splits point to some slight hope he may be able to be a decent platoon bat, and maybe his D can be hidden in Fenway's LF, but I don't see counting on him for anything except possible minor league depth with some potential to improve.

 

I think going into 2023 planning on a Pham-Duran LF platoon is a waste of a roster spot, but if we upgrade at all the other key positions, I think that might end up being a possible solution. I just hope it is not our winter plan for LF. I'd prefer we use Dugo in LF and add a CF'er and RF'er with ref as the 4th OF'er.

[Bellhorn04]

Where did it ever say that looking at box scores was part of the eye test once again trying to over analyze, and Slop 101.

 

The point is that even old-timers never relied totally on the eye test. They looked at box scores, leaders in batting average, home runs and RBI's etc. They sure as heck didn't watch every game. It wasn't even possible to watch most of the games back then.

[notin]

Did I say to give him a chance to see what he’s got, and he won’t be a complete butcher out there? I know how some always leave out part on the phrase on here.

 

 

Yeah you did.

 

That’s ok to admit. Everyone of us (except maybe mvp) had some level of excitement about this guy. It’s only natural for diehard fans..

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah you did.

 

That’s ok to admit. Everyone of us (except maybe mvp) had some level of excitement about this guy. It’s only natural for diehard fans..

 

The struggles of Duran are more evidence of the Red Sox horrendous record of producing players through the draft post-2011.

[Old Red]

Yeah you did.

 

That’s ok to admit. Everyone of us (except maybe mvp) had some level of excitement about this guy. It’s only natural for diehard fans..

Ok, but that’s what I mean that all kinds of hype while on the farm, but no production with the big club. Franchy is another example of hitting down in Worcester, but can’t do it with the Sox.

[Old Red]

The point is that even old-timers never relied totally on the eye test. They looked at box scores, leaders in batting average, home runs and RBI's etc. They sure as heck didn't watch every game. It wasn't even possible to watch most of the games back then.

I get what you are saying, but that’s not how it was meant to my being a box score junkie.

[notin]

The struggles of Duran are more evidence of the Red Sox horrendous record of producing players through the draft post-2011.

 

Be fair. He was a 7th round pick. Only 4 other players from that round have played in MLB to date.

[Bellhorn04]

Be fair. He was a 7th round pick. Only 4 other players from that round have played in MLB to date.

 

OK, leave him out of it. I think the statement is still accurate.

 

I'm not including the most recent draftees who are too young to judge yet.

[notin]

OK, leave him out of it. I think the statement is still accurate.

 

I'm not including the most recent draftees who are too young to judge yet.

 

Right now the Sox farm has Houck, Dalbec and Crawford as draft picks. But also players like Moncada, Kopech, Presley, Espinal, Montas, etc who (not all draft picks) are helping other clubs. Most were dealt to help a then-current Sox team be more successful, participants with the last two titles…