The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

What are the best deals from the MLBTR list of projected contracts? (Not necessarily the best deals for the Sox)

 

I like Story & Baez

ERod

Graveman

 

ERod at 5/70

Iglesias 4/56

Graveman 3/27

Escobar 2/20

[moonslav59]

ERod at 5/70

Iglesias 4/56

Graveman 3/27

Escobar 2/20

 

Good call on Escobar.

.793 OPS since 2018 (.780 since 2019)

29 HRs & 71 XBHs per 162 games

Last 3 years: 30 HRs and 103 RBI per 162 games (690 PAs)

 

 

I'm re-thinking my take on Story.

 

He's only 28...okay he turns 29 in a week, and he's been over .800 for 4 straight years (.880 average), but these splits- home (.972) and Away (.752)- look very scary

Edited November 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

ERod at 5/70

Iglesias 4/56

Graveman 3/27

Escobar 2/20

 

That totals $47M a year, which might be close to what the Sox could spend, this winter.

 

Escobar would solve the 2B issue, force Kike FT in CF and help replace losing Schwarber's bat. (Arroyo becomes the infield utility player.)

 

2 RP'ers would allow Houck or Whitlock to start: Eovaldi, Sale, ERod, Whitlock, Pivetta (Seabold).

 

Our pen would go from suspect to a big plus:

 

Houck, Iglesias, Graveman, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura/DHern/Davis/Bazardo/Valdez/Feltman

[mvp 78]

Good call on Escobar.

.793 OPS since 2018 (.780 since 2019)

29 HRs & 71 XBHs per 162 games

Last 3 years: 30 HRs and 103 RBI per 162 games (690 PAs)

 

 

I'm re-thinking my take on Story.

 

He's only 28...okay he turns 29 in a week, and he's been over .800 for 4 straight years (.880 average), but these splits- home (.972) and Away (.752)- look very scary

 

Yes, I don't like Story because of his away splits.

 

Arenado also had massive splits, which now is a reverse split for STL 722 Home and 885 Away. It's always safer to stay away from Coors guys.

[mvp 78]

That totals $47M a year, which might be close to what the Sox could spend, this winter.

 

Escobar would solve the 2B issue, force Kike FT in CF and help replace losing Schwarber's bat. (Arroyo becomes the infield utility player.)

 

2 RP'ers would allow Houck or Whitlock to start: Eovaldi, Sale, ERod, Whitlock, Pivetta (Seabold).

 

Our pen would go from suspect to a big plus:

 

Houck, Iglesias, Graveman, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura/DHern/Davis/Bazardo/Valdez/Feltman

 

If they signed Iggy instead of Escobar, I wouldn't mind it. I think that Escobar is a good value though.

[moonslav59]

If they signed Iggy instead of Escobar, I wouldn't mind it. I think that Escobar is a good value though.

 

That seems more realistic, and Escobar turns 33, soon.

 

I think Bloom likes Arroyo, and maybe they are now seeing Downs join the late 2022 2B mix.

 

ERod, R Iglesias, Graveman and Iggy might come to about $40M total.

Edited November 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

We may go...

 

$14M x 5 ERod

$9M x 3 Graveman

$9M x 2 Knebel

$3M x 2 Iggy

 

That's $35M and I think that would keep us under $210M.

[notin]

We may go...

 

$14M x 5 ERod

$9M x 3 Graveman

$9M x 2 Knebel

$3M x 2 Iggy

 

That's $35M and I think that would keep us under $210M.

 

Why Knebel? He’s just another repeated arm problem.

 

I do think Graveman is a good target.

 

Most pundits seem to think Semien is the 2b target. Both you and Soxprosoects.com think Iglesias is. No one seems to like Eduardo Escobar. But the guy has a 108 OPS+ and positive (although probably useless) defensive metrics at 2b, and has seriou switch/hitting power. And his last contract was only 3 years / $21mill, the total value here is probably less than the AAV for a contract that lands Semien…

[moonslav59]

The Cards won 5 GG Awards- first time.

[moonslav59]

Why Knebel?

 

He’s just another repeated arm problem.

 

I do think Graveman is a good target…

 

$9M not $14M like Iglesias, and I noticed some guy from MLBTR projected the Sox as his landing place.

[notin]

The Cards won 5 GG Awards- first time.

 

And did so without Yadier Molina getting one…

[notin]

$9M not $14M like Iglesias, and I noticed some guy from MLBTR projected the Sox as his landing place.

 

 

But my point is Knebel is always hurt. Let him go to the Yankees, who like to sign oft-injured players and then gripe about how unlucky they are when these players get hurt.

 

Knebel has 38 IP in the past 3 seasons. He does get hurt a lot. Sox might as well avoid..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

ERod at 5/70

Iglesias 4/56

Graveman 3/27

Escobar 2/20

 

I like the both bullpen guys, but don't think Bloom will sign more than one established reliever this winter. He's not going to spend $80 million on free agent closers, when he can pick up a Joe Kelly for less (2/12? 3/15?), or deal for minimum wage arms he's undoubtedly targeting. And then if the front office deems the Sox contenders by mid-season, there are always decent recruits available at the deadline... like Graveman was, last summer.

[notin]

Did mvp recommend Escobar?

 

If so, I’m off Escobar now…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

BTV "talked to Barzini" and the Sox can make a deal for Luis Castillo and still keep Casas/Mayer/Yorke...

 

...but lose all their Ds: -uran, -albec and -owns. They'd also give up Jay Groome-D the past Decade... plus Dilberto Dimenez. But toolsy Nick Senzel would be thrown in to become Boston's next Franchy (it might seem like an overpay, but not if the Reds are tired of waiting on a former MLB top-10 prospect).

 

If you think Boston would be giving up too much of the farm for a potential #1 starter, then so does Chaim Bloom... maybe. If just two of those five prospects become MLB All-Stars, the Reds win the trade, right?

 

Remember, Pedro Martinez had just won the NL CY Young Award when the Sox acquired him from Montreal. For the rest of his career, Pedro won 154 games, while the two guys he was swapped for -- Pavano and Armas -- won 161 combined. Then there's WAR: Pavano + Armas career = 23.3; Martinez post-trade 58.4.

[moonslav59]

BTV "talked to Barzini" and the Sox can make a deal for Luis Castillo and still keep Casas/Mayer/Yorke...

 

...but lose all their Ds: -uran, -albec and -owns. They'd also give up Jay Groome-D the past Decade... plus Dilberto Dimenez. But toolsy Nick Senzel would be thrown in to become Boston's next Franchy (it might seem like an overpay, but not if the Reds are tired of waiting on a former MLB top-10 prospect).

 

If you think Boston would be giving up too much of the farm for a potential #1 starter, then so does Chaim Bloom... maybe. If just two of those five prospects become MLB All-Stars, the Reds win the trade, right?

 

Remember, Pedro Martinez had just won the NL CY Young Award when the Sox acquired him from Montreal. For the rest of his career, Pedro won 154 games, while the two guys he was swapped for -- Pavano and Armas -- won 161 combined. Then there's WAR: Pavano + Armas career = 23.3; Martinez post-trade 58.4.

 

What happened to Castillo in 2021?

 

I'd need a convincing answer to trade a lot for him.

[moonslav59]

Did mvp recommend Escobar?

 

If so, I’m off Escobar now…

 

He just said he was a bargain at that price. He did not hint at the Sox signing him.

[notin]

What happened to Castillo in 2021?

 

I'd need a convincing answer to trade a lot for him.

 

He got off to a slow start.

 

His ERA at the end of May was 7.22. For the last 135 IP of the season, his ERA was 2.73...

[notin]

BTV "talked to Barzini" and the Sox can make a deal for Luis Castillo and still keep Casas/Mayer/Yorke...

 

...but lose all their Ds: -uran, -albec and -owns. They'd also give up Jay Groome-D the past Decade... plus Dilberto Dimenez. But toolsy Nick Senzel would be thrown in to become Boston's next Franchy (it might seem like an overpay, but not if the Reds are tired of waiting on a former MLB top-10 prospect).

 

If you think Boston would be giving up too much of the farm for a potential #1 starter, then so does Chaim Bloom... maybe. If just two of those five prospects become MLB All-Stars, the Reds win the trade, right?

 

Remember, Pedro Martinez had just won the NL CY Young Award when the Sox acquired him from Montreal. For the rest of his career, Pedro won 154 games, while the two guys he was swapped for -- Pavano and Armas -- won 161 combined. Then there's WAR: Pavano + Armas career = 23.3; Martinez post-trade 58.4.

 

If the Sox can get Castillo and hold on to those 3, they should do it today.

 

I struggle to imagine how they would be able to do that, however. Unless they are dealing Houck...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Sox can get Castillo and hold on to those 3, they should do it today.

 

I struggle to imagine how they would be able to do that, however. Unless they are dealing Houck...

 

I can't do that right now, because I can't ever remember a young Sox pitcher like Houck throwing a perfect game for five innings (and then getting yanked).

 

Castillo's number one comp at age 28 is Marty Pattin. Marty was the ace that never was, a centerpiece, along with Tommy Harper, in a 10-player blockbuster of my youth. The Red Sox gave up half a dozen guys, including George Boomer Scott and Slim Jim Lonborg, plus Conigliaro and Brett (brothers of superstars).

 

Pattin was Boston's winningest pitcher in strike-shortened '72 with 17 Ws... but Luis Tiant turned into the ace and led the AL in ERA. It was kind of like Rick Porcello leading the '18 Sox in victories... or ERod leading the '21 Wild Card Sox.

 

Once before a game at Fenway, I nabbed a ball that Pattin, then a KC Royal, missed playing pepper. Now I feel bad.

[notin]

BTV "talked to Barzini" and the Sox can make a deal for Luis Castillo and still keep Casas/Mayer/Yorke...

 

...but lose all their Ds: -uran, -albec and -owns. They'd also give up Jay Groome-D the past Decade... plus Dilberto Dimenez. But toolsy Nick Senzel would be thrown in to become Boston's next Franchy (it might seem like an overpay, but not if the Reds are tired of waiting on a former MLB top-10 prospect).

 

If you think Boston would be giving up too much of the farm for a potential #1 starter, then so does Chaim Bloom... maybe. If just two of those five prospects become MLB All-Stars, the Reds win the trade, right?

 

Remember, Pedro Martinez had just won the NL CY Young Award when the Sox acquired him from Montreal. For the rest of his career, Pedro won 154 games, while the two guys he was swapped for -- Pavano and Armas -- won 161 combined. Then there's WAR: Pavano + Armas career = 23.3; Martinez post-trade 58.4.

 

Per the simulator at BTV, a fair deal would be Castillo, Eugenio Suarez (and his 3 years $38.5mill left) and Nick Senzel for Tanner Houck and Jarren Duran.

 

Or - Castillo and Suarez for Houck and Dalbec.

 

Or - Castillo and Mike Moustakas (2 yrs - $38mill) for Duran, Dalbec and Brayan Bello.

 

There you go - deals where the Sox do get to keep Casas, Mayer and Yorke. Of course, they do have to give up Houck, or take back Mike Moustakas. So it's not necessarily a good thing...

[moonslav59]

I can't do that right now, because I can't ever remember a young Sox pitcher like Houck throwing a perfect game for five innings (and then getting yanked).

 

Castillo's number one comp at age 28 is Marty Pattin. Marty was the ace that never was, a centerpiece, along with Tommy Harper, in a 10-player blockbuster of my youth. The Red Sox gave up half a dozen guys, including George Boomer Scott and Slim Jim Lonborg, plus Conigliaro and Brett (brothers of superstars).

 

Pattin was Boston's winningest pitcher in strike-shortened '72 with 17 Ws... but Luis Tiant turned into the ace and led the AL in ERA. It was kind of like Rick Porcello leading the '18 Sox in victories... or ERod leading the '21 Wild Card Sox.

 

Once before a game at Fenway, I nabbed a ball that Pattin, then a KC Royal, missed playing pepper. Now I feel bad.

 

I was a Brewer fan when they traded Tommy Harper, and others, to the Sox. Harper was my favorite player, and it was then that I switched to being a Sox fan. (My family had just moved from near Count Stadium in Milwaukee to Maine that summer.

[notin]

I can't do that right now, because I can't ever remember a young Sox pitcher like Houck throwing a perfect game for five innings (and then getting yanked).

 

Castillo's number one comp at age 28 is Marty Pattin. Marty was the ace that never was, a centerpiece, along with Tommy Harper, in a 10-player blockbuster of my youth. The Red Sox gave up half a dozen guys, including George Boomer Scott and Slim Jim Lonborg, plus Conigliaro and Brett (brothers of superstars).

 

Pattin was Boston's winningest pitcher in strike-shortened '72 with 17 Ws... but Luis Tiant turned into the ace and led the AL in ERA. It was kind of like Rick Porcello leading the '18 Sox in victories... or ERod leading the '21 Wild Card Sox.

 

Once before a game at Fenway, I nabbed a ball that Pattin, then a KC Royal, missed playing pepper. Now I feel bad.

 

Well, if the Sox want Castillo, they are going to have to give the Reds something good. If the goal is to hold on to Casas, Mayer, Yorke, and Houck, it gets much more difficult. Jarren Duran only gets you so much.

 

Even taking back a questionable contract like Suarez (and then trying to figure out where he plays) doesn't really help the situation much. Taking back Moustakas might, but at some point, Cincinnati is probably going to ralize it is unwise to dump their worst contract in a package with their best trade bait...

[moonslav59]

Well, if the Sox want Castillo, they are going to have to give the Reds something good. If the goal is to hold on to Casas, Mayer, Yorke, and Houck, it gets much more difficult. Jarren Duran only gets you so much.

 

Even taking back a questionable contract like Suarez (and then trying to figure out where he plays) doesn't really help the situation much. Taking back Moustakas might, but at some point, Cincinnati is probably going to ralize it is unwise to dump their worst contract in a package with their best trade bait...

 

I think we'd have to take on a sunken contract to get Castillo without giving up any of these 4.

 

Moustakas makes more sense, because he can play 2B.

 

I doubt Cincy gives up Castillo without getting at least one of our "big 4." (I'd say Whitlock makes it the big 5.)

 

BTV called this a "moderate overpay" by the Sox:

 

Duran, Downs & Groome

for

Castillo, Moustakas and Akiyama (another salary dump who plays OF)

Edited November 9, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

I think we'd have to take on a sunken contract to get Castillo without giving up any of these 4.

 

Moustakas makes more sense, because he can play 2B.

 

I doubt Cincy gives up Castillo without getting at least one of our "big 4." (I'd say Whitlock makes it the big 5.)

 

If I am the GM of the Reds, I stop it at the Big 4. Nothing against Whitlock, but taking on a pitcher whose already had one TJ surgery is not a good way to rebuild...

[moonslav59]

If I am the GM of the Reds, I stop it at the Big 4. Nothing against Whitlock, but taking on a pitcher whose already had one TJ surgery is not a good way to rebuild...

 

TJS is not the death nail it used to be viewed as.

 

I'd rather have Whitlock than Duran + Downs. (BTV has Duran 23, Whitlock 17 & Downs 12.)

[notin]

I think we'd have to take on a sunken contract to get Castillo without giving up any of these 4.

 

Moustakas makes more sense, because he can play 2B.

 

I doubt Cincy gives up Castillo without getting at least one of our "big 4." (I'd say Whitlock makes it the big 5.)

 

From a baseball standpoint, I greatly prefer Suarez to Moustakas. However, just because Suarez is expensive doesn't mean the Reds are willing to dump the ML home run leader over the past 4 seasons so readily. Moustakas' experience at 2B appears to be an advantage, but even with Suarez never playing there, I actually trust him more at the position than the slow-footed and oft-injured Moustakas.

 

Now maybe the Sox could deal Casas (and either Groome or Bello) for Castillo and Suarez, and then put Suarez at 3B and move Devers over to 1B. Of course, that leaves Dalbec without a position and no one to play 2B....

[notin]

TJS is not the death nail it used to be viewed as.

 

I'd rather have Whitlock than Duran + Downs. (BTV has Duran 23, Whitlock 17 & Downs 12.)

 

I'm not sure Jeter Downs carries the appeal he did 12 months ago. I haven't given up on him and think he was placed in a very bad position, basically skipping AA ball after missing a year, but I do think it means any trade of him is definitely selling low, assuming any team is interested at all...

[notin]

TJS is not the death nail it used to be viewed as.

 

I'd rather have Whitlock than Duran + Downs. (BTV has Duran 23, Whitlock 17 & Downs 12.)

 

TJS is certainly not the career ender it used to be, but so far history has shown many pitchers need a second one after about 600 IP. And the frequency of getting a second TJS is too high to ignore.

 

I think the health history alone does make Houck the far more appealing trade target of the two. But giving up on Houck to get Castillo is still a dilemma. I'd probably consider trading Casas over Houck, but not sure how interested Cincinnati is in Casas given that Votto still has 2 years (and $57mill) on his contract, can't play anywhere else, and is virtually untradable even without taking into consideration his 10-5 rights...

[harmony]

Baseball Trade Values may deem a proposed trade a fair deal but that does not mean the package is the best the Cincinnati Reds would receive for two years of a reasonably priced top-tier starter in Luis Castillo.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

A team will likely need to overpay in a trade for the nearly 29-year-old righthander.