A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

With Chris Sale out indefinitely, I'm guessing Wacha will get an opportunity to start. He should be familiar with that role considering he's started 184 games out of 202 games pitched.

 

Based on recent trend in Bloom's spending, it would have been an overpay to have Wacha in the pen and pay him $7M, topped only by unfortunate contract extension given to Barnes.

 

But who knows what was discussed during negotiation.

 

Ottavino was paid more than $7M last season.

[moonslav59]

Ottavino was paid more than $7M last season.

 

...and we ended up with $10M Richards and $5M Perez in the pen, too.

[mvp 78]

...and we ended up with $10M Richards and $5M Perez in the pen, too.

 

Wacha is a steal at $7M!

[moonslav59]

Wacha is a steal at $7M!

 

I do like Wacha ($7M) and Hill ($5M) more than I liked Richards & Perez at $15M combined, last March.

 

That may not be saying much, because I was not thrilled with those signings either.

 

We lost ERod, Ottavino, Richards, Perez, Robles and few others.

 

We gained Wacha, Hill, Diekman and Strahm. We had hopes more innings from Sale might make up for some of the losses, but now...

[notin]

Wacha is a steal at $7M!

 

Hey that signing looks bigger and bigger every time Sale sneezes…

[mvp 78]

Hey that signing looks bigger and bigger every time Sale sneezes…

 

If he keeps sneezing, they'll have to check and see if he got COVID a third time.

[moonslav59]

I may be in a small minority, but I'd actually be fine with going into the 2022 season with this roster, if I was 100% sure we will be making a big move to get to a top 3-5 roster, next winter. I might even be fine for 2024, if we did enough to stay entertaining for these two year.

 

I'm having doubts about us going large and long enough to bring us another ring in the next 4-5 years. Maybe the plan is to try and get one without doing so, but will that mean we watch Devers and Bogey walk (or trade them?) I shutter to think of those upcoming rosters.

 

If the plan is to spend near the tax line every year, I think we are bound to be top competitors and some point in the next 3-4 years, but it remains to be seen, if we do it without some major "large & long" signings.

 

Here is a list of our last major signings:

Red= extension only from 2009 to today

 

2020

Sale $145M/5 w opt out

Bogey $120M/6 w opt out

 

2019

Nate $68M/4

 

2018

JD $110M/5

 

2016

Price $217M/7

Porcello $83M/4

 

2015

Pablito $95M/5

HRam $88M/4

 

2014

Pedroia $110M/8

 

2011

Crawford $142M/7

 

2010

Lackey $83M/5

 

2007

JD Drew $70M/5

 

2001

Manny $160M/8

 

Tier 2 (some not large-some not long & Kike and others not really large or long)

 

2022

$19M/2 Barnes

 

2021

Kike $14M/2

 

2015

$18M/2 Uehara

$19M/3 Miley

 

2014

Napoli $32M/2

R Castillo $73M/7 (IFA)

 

2013

Vic $39M/3

Dempster $27M/2 (retired after 1 season)

Ortiz $26M/2

 

2012

AGon $154M/7

Buchholz $30M/4

 

2011

Josh Beckett $68M/4

 

2010

Cameron $16M/2

 

2009

Youkilis $41M/4

Lester $30M/5

 

2008

Lowell $38M/3

 

2007

Dice-K $52M/6 (+ hefty posting fee as IFA)

Lugo $36M/4

 

2005

Renteria $40M/4 (ended u being about $40M/1)

VTek $40M/4

Clement $26M/3

 

2004

Foulke $26M/4

 

2002

Damon $31M/4

 

1999

Offerman $26M/4

 

Not counting trading for large salaries with multiple years remaining, like JBJ, Kimbrel, Allen Craig, Jake Peavy, VMart, Mike Lowell, Jason Bay

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I may be in a small minority, but I'd actually be fine with going into the 2022 season with this roster, if I was 100% sure we will be making a big move to get to a top 3-5 roster, next winter. I might even be fine for 2024, if we did enough to stay entertaining for these two year.

 

I'm having doubts about us going large and long enough to bring us another ring in the next 4-5 years. Maybe the plan is to try and get one without doing so, but will that mean we watch Devers and Bogey walk (or trade them?) I shutter to think of those upcoming rosters.

 

If the plan is to spend near the tax line every year, I think we are bound to be top competitors and some point in the next 3-4 years, but it remains to be seen, if we do it without some major "large & long" signings.

 

Here is a list of our last major signings:

 

2019

Nate $68M/4

 

2018

JD $110M/5

 

2016

Price $217M/7

 

2015

Pablito $95M/5

HRam $88M/4

 

2011

Crawford $142M/7

 

2010

Lackey $83M/5

 

2007

JD Drew $70M/5

 

2001

Manny $160M/8

 

Tier 2 (some not large-some not long & Kike and others not really large or long)

2021

Kike $14M/2

2015

$18M/2 Uehara

 

2014

Napoli $32M/2

 

2013

Vic $39M/3

Dempster $27M/2 (retired after 1 season)

Ortiz $26M/2

 

2010

Cameron $16M/2

 

2008

Lowell $38M/3

 

2007

Lugo $36M/4

 

2005

Renteria $40M/4 (ended u being about $40M/1)

VTek $40M/4

Clement $26M/3

 

2004

Foulke $26M/4

 

2002

Damon $31M/4

 

1999

Offerman $26M/4

 

This is NOT counting extensions.

 

 

Thanks for the perspective. It shows that Bloom hasn't even paid anyone as much for as long as Ben did for Victorino 10 years ago! Three years for $39 million... a decade of added revenues ago.

[Tedballgame]

I may be in a small minority, but I'd actually be fine with going into the 2022 season with this roster, if I was 100% sure we will be making a big move to get to a top 3-5 roster, next winter. I might even be fine for 2024, if we did enough to stay entertaining for these two year.

 

I'm having doubts about us going large and long enough to bring us another ring in the next 4-5 years. Maybe the plan is to try and get one without doing so, but will that mean we watch Devers and Bogey walk (or trade them?) I shutter to think of those upcoming rosters.

 

If the plan is to spend near the tax line every year, I think we are bound to be top competitors and some point in the next 3-4 years, but it remains to be seen, if we do it without some major "large & long" signings.

 

Here is a list of our last major signings:

 

2019

Nate $68M/4

 

2018

JD $110M/5

 

2016

Price $217M/7

 

2015

Pablito $95M/5

HRam $88M/4

 

2011

Crawford $142M/7

 

2010

Lackey $83M/5

 

2007

JD Drew $70M/5

 

2001

Manny $160M/8

 

Tier 2 (some not large-some not long & Kike and others not really large or long)

2021

Kike $14M/2

2015

$18M/2 Uehara

 

2014

Napoli $32M/2

 

2013

Vic $39M/3

Dempster $27M/2 (retired after 1 season)

Ortiz $26M/2

 

2010

Cameron $16M/2

 

2008

Lowell $38M/3

 

2007

Lugo $36M/4

 

2005

Renteria $40M/4 (ended u being about $40M/1)

VTek $40M/4

Clement $26M/3

 

2004

Foulke $26M/4

 

2002

Damon $31M/4

 

1999

Offerman $26M/4

 

This is NOT counting extensions.

 

 

13 of those were good signings. The rest were duds.

[moonslav59]

13 of those were good signings. The rest were duds.

 

Not doubting you, but can you name the 13?

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the perspective. It shows that Bloom hasn't even paid anyone as much for as long as Ben did for Victorino 10 years ago! Three years for $39 million... a decade of added revenues ago.

 

You're welcome. It also shows a near continuous signing and extension pattern, and it also shows 2006 and 2017 with no major or tier 2 moves.

 

Here is the combined tier 1 and tier 2 list:

 

Blue= My idea of a good deal (maybe not great): 12

Black= Okay or undetermined, so far: 11

Red= Bad, or bad, so far:11

 

2022

$19M/2 Barnes

 

2021

Kike $14M/2

 

2020

Sale $145M/5 w opt out

Bogey $120M/6 w opt out

 

2019

Nate $68M/4

 

2018

JD $110M/5

 

2016

Price $217M/7

Porcello $83M/4

 

2015

Pablito $95M/5

HRam $88M/4

$18M/2 Uehara

$19M/3 Miley

 

2014

Pedroia $110M/8

R Castillo $73M/7 (IFA)

Napoli $32M/2

 

2013

Vic $39M/3

Dempster $27M/2 (retired after 1 season)

Ortiz $26M/2

 

2012

AGon $154M/7

Buchholz $30M/4

 

2011

Crawford $142M/7

Josh Beckett $68M/4

 

2010

Lackey $83M/5

Cameron $16M/2

 

2009

Youkilis $41M/4

Lester $30M/5

 

2008

Lowell $38M/3

 

2007

JD Drew $70M/5

Dice-K $52M/6 (+ hefty posting fee as IFA)

Lugo $36M/4

 

2005

Renteria $40M/4 (ended u being about $40M/1)

VTek $40M/4

Clement $26M/3

 

2004

Foulke $26M/4

 

2002

Damon $31M/4

 

2001

Manny $160M/8

 

1999

Offerman $26M/4

 

 

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

We just signed old friends Travis Shaw and Deivy Grullon to minor league deals. Bloom is el fuego!

[jacksonianmarch]

There are two big FAs left on the market. Both play the position Xander does, yet play it better defensively. If they get a good deal on either of those players, they will dump Bogey, making it more of a lateral (Correa) or minus (Story) move. I havent seen the sox in on any pitching at all, which is incredibly strange for a team that lost ERod and now lost Sale for a chunk of the year. How much can you throw on Eovaldi and Pivetta? As it stands right now, the sox opening day rotation is....

 

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Hill

Wacha

Whitlock/Houck

 

That is a rotation that is waiting for injury and is going to suck. Between Wacha, Hill and Eovaldi, they will lose someone early on (likely Hill since he is one of the few big leaguers older than me and he seems to pull his hammy every 5th start). If you assume Houck gets pulled into the rotation as the 6th man/injury replacement for the first 2 months, your pen looks awfully weird

 

Davis

Hernandez

Diekman

Strahm

Taylor

Barnes

Brasier

Sawamura

 

5 lefties, 3 righties. The 3 righties have issues under pressure. The 5 lefties will be facing off against predominantly RH lineups in TB, NYY, and TOR

 

I am absolutely flabbergasted that the sox didn't commit some money to the rotation. They are going to need to hit like mad to keep up in the ALE

[notin]

There are two big FAs left on the market. Both play the position Xander does, yet play it better defensively. If they get a good deal on either of those players, they will dump Bogey, making it more of a lateral (Correa) or minus (Story) move. I havent seen the sox in on any pitching at all, which is incredibly strange for a team that lost ERod and now lost Sale for a chunk of the year. How much can you throw on Eovaldi and Pivetta? As it stands right now, the sox opening day rotation is....

 

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Hill

Wacha

Whitlock/Houck

 

That is a rotation that is waiting for injury and is going to suck. Between Wacha, Hill and Eovaldi, they will lose someone early on (likely Hill since he is one of the few big leaguers older than me and he seems to pull his hammy every 5th start). If you assume Houck gets pulled into the rotation as the 6th man/injury replacement for the first 2 months, your pen looks awfully weird

 

Davis

Hernandez

Diekman

Strahm

Taylor

Barnes

Brasier

Sawamura

 

5 lefties, 3 righties. The 3 righties have issues under pressure. The 5 lefties will be facing off against predominantly RH lineups in TB, NYY, and TOR

 

I am absolutely flabbergasted that the sox didn't commit some money to the rotation. They are going to need to hit like mad to keep up in the ALE

 

For the time being, at least one of Houck or Whitlock will be in the bullpen…

[harmony]

The new MLB Prospect list ranks Marcelo Mayer No. 14, Triston Casas No. 16, Nick Yorke No. 55 and Jarren Duran No. 85:

 

Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

[notin]

We just signed old friends Travis Shaw and Deivy Grullon to minor league deals. Bloom is el fuego!

 

Shaw has now joined Jeff Suppan, Rheal Cormier and teammate Rich Hill on the list of players acquired by the Red Sox at least 3 times…

[moonslav59]

The new MLB Prospect list ranks Marcelo Mayer No. 14, Triston Casas No. 16, Nick Yorke No. 55 and Jarren Duran No. 85:

 

Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

Yankees?

 

8 Volpe

60 Peraza

61 Dominguez

96 Wells

 

[notin]

Sox signed LHP Derek Holland to a minor league contract.

 

I may have to dial back the sarcasm. Is it possible Bloom took my post about needing more southpaws seriously? Or he’s just signing them to MiLB deals to watch me go off?

[jacksonianmarch]

Yankees?

 

8 Volpe

60 Peraza

61 Dominguez

96 Wells

 

 

Strange not to have any pitching on there.

[dgalehouse]

One can never have enough left handers in the bullpen. Especially older ones.

[moonslav59]

One can never have enough left handers in the bullpen. Especially older ones.

 

I think the whole lefties in the pen thing is being blown out of proportion.

 

5 of our top 6-7 RP'ers are righties. The rest will fight for innings and mop up chances.

 

R Whitlock

R Houck

R Barnes

L Taylor

R Brasier

R Sawamura/ L Diekman/ L Strahm/ L DHern/ L A Davis/ R Valdez

 

If we move Houck or Whitlock to the rotation, we'll still have 3 of our top 4-5 RP'ers as RHPs.

[moonslav59]

If we end up signing Story to anything near what Baez got, there should be some explaining to do.

 

(Other names, too.)

[moonslav59]

So, Robles is added.

 

Paxton is already on the 60 day. Do we add Sale to the 60 day or cut someone?

[Swiharts Ghost]

So, Robles is added.

 

Paxton is already on the 60 day. Do we add Sale to the 60 day or cut someone?

 

Can we cut Wacha now and save him the humiliation?

[moonslav59]

Money spent on 2022 and beyond, including trades and the Barnes extension that starts in 2022 (not counting arb avoidance signings):

 

JBJ: 22:$9.5M player option, 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout) $12M Lux #

Paxton: 1 year/$10M (2022), plus 2023 or 2023-24 options $10M Lux #

Barnes: 22:$7.25M, 23:$7.5M, 24:$8M club option ($2.25M buyout) $9.4M Lux #

Wacha: 1 year/$7M (2022) $7M Lux #

Vaz: 22:$7M club option ($0.25M buyout) $7M Lux #

Hill: 1 year/$5M (2022) #5M Lux #

Diekman: 2 years/$8M (2022-23), plus 2024 club option $4M Lux #

Strahm: 1 year/$3M (2022) $3M Lux #

Robles: ??? Lux # ???

 

That's over $57M for 9 players. (Over $41M on 7 players not counting Vaz and Barnes.)

 

I was hoping we'd spend $40-55M on 4-5 players- not 7.

 

This building the farm and 40 man roster depth strategy era has gone on long enough. This year, it appears we are leaving money on the table, in terms of being significantly under the tax line.

 

Edited March 19, 2022 by moonslav59

[Tedballgame]

Can we cut Wacha now and save him the humiliation?

 

Wacha will help this team. He will be a lot better than Richards or Perez were. Of course, that's not saying much.

[moonslav59]

Wacha will help this team. He will be a lot better than Richards or Perez were. Of course, that's not saying much.

 

He's one of, if not the most hopeful signings by the Sox this winter, which is not really a ringing endorsement.

[moonslav59]

Money spent on 2022 and beyond, including trades and the Barnes extension that starts in 2022 (not counting arb avoidance signings):

 

JBJ: 22:$9.5M player option, 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout) $12M Lux #

Paxton: 1 year/$10M (2022), plus 2023 or 2023-24 options $10M Lux #

Barnes: 22:$7.25M, 23:$7.5M, 24:$8M club option ($2.25M buyout) $9.4M Lux #

Wacha: 1 year/$7M (2022) $7M Lux #

Vaz: 22:$7M club option ($0.25M buyout) $7M Lux #

Hill: 1 year/$5M (2022) #5M Lux #

Diekman: 2 years/$8M (2022-23), plus 2024 club option $4M Lux #

Strahm: 1 year/$3M (2022) $3M Lux #

Robles: ??? Lux # ???

 

That's over $57M for 9 players. (Over $41M on 7 players not counting Vaz and Barnes.)

 

I was hoping we'd spend $40-55M on 4-5 players- not 7.

 

This building the farm and 40 man roster depth strategy era has gone on long enough. This year, it appears we are leaving money on the table, in terms of being significantly under the tax line.

 

 

So, we've spent about $41M on free agents- about the same as last winter- and we are about $16M under the tax line. If we spend maybe $15M, we'll be at over $55M in FA spending, this winter.

 

This has to be the quietest $41-57M ever spent.

[Bellhorn04]

So, we've spent about $41M on free agents- about the same as last winter- and we are about $16M under the tax line. If we spend maybe $15M, we'll be at over $55M in FA spending, this winter.

 

This has to be the quietest $41-57M ever spent.

 

A lot of it is just replacement though. When you sign as many guys to 1 year deals as Bloom does, you really have to keep busy!

[moonslav59]

A lot of it is just replacement though. When you sign as many guys to 1 year deals as Bloom does, you really have to keep busy!

 

Exactly, and in some ways, we got weaker at the top of the 40man roster (ERod/Schwarber/Ottavino/Renfroe) while just replacing the bottom 40 with similar player profiles.

 

I knew we might be frugal for another season, but this is a disappointing, so far.

 

Adding Story would change the narrative, but it creates too many issues with team harmony, positional concerns and the future budget. It would also end the Bogey era in Boston, either by forcing a trade or watching him walk, next winter.