A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Old Red]

Posters have talked about moving him to 1b even before he was called up. I'm not sure he'd even be a good 1b. I'd be more likely to move him to LF.

 

Before any big plans are made with Raffy he would have to be resigned first.

[moonslav59]

Mayer may never make it to Fenway, and Correa would not be worth the money anyway. Downs, and Duran wouldn’t get you much in a trade, and Verdugo while a good player is not that big a trade chip either.

 

For what it's worth, the BTV site has had Verdugo's value hold pretty steady, despite losing years of team control.

 

Duran & Downs have seen their stock fall.

[Old Red]

He's a FA in 2 years, so that's all we plan for.

 

I’m very well aware he is a FA in two years, so you just going to let him walk out the door without getting anything for him?

[moonslav59]

I’m very well aware he is a FA in two years, so you just going to let him walk out the door without getting anything for him?

 

You do know I've typed "Devers Forevers" about a hundred times in the past year.

 

My point is, you don't assume he'll be locked up. You make plans for just in case, and in this case, Casas is under team control for well beyond Devers, so I just don't see 1B in the plans for Devers.

 

It's not like I've never said it might be a good idea.

 

It's not like we can't trade Casas (and or Dalbec), of they both fizzle and we end up with Devers at 1B. It's likely been discussed as a contingency plan. I'm sure management explores all kinds of plans and options.

 

I just don't see it as a plan being front and center.

 

With a need for pitching and and OF'er or 2Bman and Bogey probably opting out after 2022, I don't see 1B/3B as a place we are looking to shake things up.

[moonslav59]

I’m very well aware he is a FA in two years, so you just going to let him walk out the door without getting anything for him?

 

Why do you say things like this?

 

Me saying he's a FA in 2 years does not come anywhere close to saying I'm advocating letting him go at all, let alone for nothing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mayer may never make it to Fenway, and Correa would not be worth the money anyway. Downs, and Duran wouldn’t get you much in a trade, and Verdugo while a good player is not that big a trade chip either.

 

So then does Bloom have to trade Casas or Yorke? Or is there someone else, like Bello, other GMs crave from the system? Got to give up something to get something, and you can be sure teams like Oakland, Cleveland, Miami and Cincy will hold out dealing until they get a guy they really want...

 

... unless the Sox are all set with Wacha, Hill and half of Paxton in the rotation, and Barnes closing in another August.

[Old Red]

Why do you say things like this?

 

Me saying he's a FA in 2 years does not come anywhere close to saying I'm advocating letting him go at all, let alone for nothing.

 

Moon I did not imply that you would let him walk away for nothing, and I know how you feel about him. We have had this discussion before, and I always say the same thing about any player that if you are not going to resign him then trade him. I would have traded Mookie a year before they did, and I would trade Bogey, and Raffy now instead of letting them walk for nothing. They could, and should have gotten more for Mookie.

[Old Red]

So then does Bloom have to trade Casas or Yorke? Or is there someone else, like Bello, other GMs crave from the system? Got to give up something to get something, and you can be sure teams like Oakland, Cleveland, Miami and Cincy will hold out dealing until they get a guy they really want...

 

... unless the Sox are all set with Wacha, Hill and half of Paxton in the rotation, and Barnes closing in another August.

 

Why would you trade Dugy, or even Duran at this point? It’s not like you have all these OF coming up through the pipelines.

[mvp 78]

Mayer may never make it to Fenway, and Correa would not be worth the money anyway. Downs, and Duran wouldn’t get you much in a trade, and Verdugo while a good player is not that big a trade chip either.

 

Verdugo may not be a big trade chip, but he's probably the best one they have, unless you're counting franchise players that shouldn't be traded.

[mvp 78]

Before any big plans are made with Raffy he would have to be resigned first.

 

It would be my #1 priority.

[Old Red]

Verdugo may not be a big trade chip, but he's probably the best one they have, unless you're counting franchise players that shouldn't be traded.

 

Like I said the Red Sox don’t have any OF coming up through the pipelines, so he would have to be replaced.

[moonslav59]

It would be my #1 priority.

 

I'm with you 100%.

[moonslav59]

Moon I did not imply that you would let him walk away for nothing, and I know how you feel about him.

 

Well, when you respond to my post and say, "so you just going to let him walk out the door without getting anything for him?" I take that to mean the "you" to mean "me."

[moonslav59]

Like I said the Red Sox don’t have any OF coming up through the pipelines, so he would have to be replaced.

 

One reason I might trade Duran, is if I don't think he's going to be as good as other GMs think he is or might be. It doesn't help that he's a lefty hitter, either.

 

Another might be, if we sign Suzuki or add another, better OF'er.

 

[Old Red]

Well, when you respond to my post and say, "so you just going to let him walk out the door without getting anything for him?" I take that to mean the "you" to mean "me."

 

OK I get that, but like I said I know how you feel about Raffy.

[Old Red]

One reason I might trade Duran, is if I don't think he's going to be as good as other GMs think he is or might be. It doesn't help that he's a lefty hitter, either.

 

Another might be, if we sign Suzuki or add another, better OF'er.

 

 

I’m with you on that, because outside of him running like a deer I don’t know if he lives up to some of his hype. I think this will be a big year for him to Judge either way. Hopefully Suzuki lands in Boston.

[moonslav59]

OK I get that, but like I said I know how you feel about Raffy.

 

I felt the same about Mookie, but I'm glad we "got something for him."

 

I'm not sure we could have gotten much better, and maybe we should have stuck to the first offer. Getting no pitching from a team rich in young pitching talent certainly looks suspect.

[mvp 78]

Like I said the Red Sox don’t have any OF coming up through the pipelines, so he would have to be replaced.

 

I think the assumption is that they'll sign Suzuki. I think they also need to give Duran a real opportunity to play this season.

[Old Red]

I felt the same about Mookie, but I'm glad we "got something for him."

 

I'm not sure we could have gotten much better, and maybe we should have stuck to the first offer. Getting no pitching from a team rich in young pitching talent certainly looks suspect.

 

I think we could have gotten more for Mookie if he would have been traded a year earlier, but to not get pitching back wasn’t as good as it should have been.

[moonslav59]

I think we could have gotten more for Mookie if he would have been traded a year earlier, but to not get pitching back wasn’t as good as it should have been.

 

I think they liked their chances in 2019, so they avoided trading him, then. Sox nation would have been loco had they dealt him right after a ring year. Maybe summer of 2019 might have worked better.

 

I like 5 years of Verdugo for 1 year of Betts. I'm not torn up we didn't get more.

[moonslav59]

I think the assumption is that they'll sign Suzuki. I think they also need to give Duran a real opportunity to play this season.

 

With Suzuki, he might not play much at all, unless someone gets hurt or JBJ hits .485 OPS.

[Old Red]

I think the assumption is that they'll sign Suzuki. I think they also need to give Duran a real opportunity to play this season.

 

If Suzuki is signed I think that changes things, but not for the better for Duran. I don’t see much of a chance for Duran unless Kike goes full time to 2B.

[Old Red]

I think they liked their chances in 2019, so they avoided trading him, then. Sox nation would have been loco had they dealt him right after a ring year. Maybe summer of 2019 might have worked better.

 

I like 5 years of Verdugo for 1 year of Betts. I'm not torn up we didn't get more.

 

One of the worst things going right now in baseball is if you have someone good who is young you have to pony up $300M+ to keep them, and even then you might not be able to keep them, because someone will offer more. Soto didn’t sign, so now you have a choice to think about trading him, or not. I think the Red Sox are in the same situation right now with Raffy. They could offer him a contract, but he might not sign, so then what do you do?

[moonslav59]

If Suzuki is signed I think that changes things, but not for the better for Duran. I don’t see much of a chance for Duran unless Kike goes full time to 2B.

 

Even then, he's one of 3 lefty-hitters for 2 slots. Verdugo is not being benched. hell, they wouldn't even platoon Alex.

 

The only way Duran plays is if JBJ really bites the dust. (I doubt he's even on the 26 man roster, if Suzuki is signed and Verdugo, JBJ, JD and Kike are healthy.

[moonslav59]

One of the worst things going right now in baseball is if you have someone good who is young you have to pony up $300M+ to keep them, and even then you might not be able to keep them, because someone will offer more. Soto didn’t sign, so now you have a choice to think about trading him, or not. I think the Red Sox are in the same situation right now with Raffy. They could offer him a contract, but he might not sign, so then what do you do?

 

Like you, I'd offer him a fair deal, but if he says no, I might wait until the deadline or next winter to think about trading him.

 

I get how his value dips, but I like our chances to win, next year, assuming we add someone like Suzuki and/or acquire a legit closer.

[Old Red]

Even then, he's one of 3 lefty-hitters for 2 slots. Verdugo is not being benched. hell, they wouldn't even platoon Alex.

 

The only way Duran plays is if JBJ really bites the dust. (I doubt he's even on the 26 man roster, if Suzuki is signed and Verdugo, JBJ, JD and Kike are healthy.

 

Agree, and this is why the JBJ trade didn’t make sense prospects, or not. A RH bat would have been a bigger need.

[moonslav59]

Agree, and this is why the JBJ trade didn’t make sense prospects, or not. A RH bat would have been a bigger need.

 

It still makes little sense to me. Had we gotten a RH'd JBJ, maybe a little more sense. (This is also one reason why I think Suzuki to BOS may happen.)

 

Maybe Bloom knows more about these prospects than we and some of these ranking services know, but to me, they might have a better chance at helping the Sox in a significant way than JBJ does.

 

(This from someone who thought of JBJ as his favorite Sox player for many years.)

[Old Red]

Like you, I'd offer him a fair deal, but if he says no, I might wait until the deadline or next winter to think about trading him.

 

I get how his value dips, but I like our chances to win, next year, assuming we add someone like Suzuki and/or acquire a legit closer.

 

I’m not all that impressed with the starting rotation at this point. Sale has to come back, and Evol has to be good, but the rest with Whack a is a crapshoot.

[moonslav59]

I’m not all that impressed with the starting rotation at this point. Sale has to come back, and Evol has to be good, but the rest with Whack a is a crapshoot.

 

I'm not impressed with any ALE rotation, so my hopes remain high.

 

We also may see Whitlock or Houck join the rotation, so that may add a big boost.

 

It's always hard to project these things, but here's a quick stab at it.

 

2021>2022 (812 IP by starters in 2021; let's assume the same in 2022)

 

182 Eovaldi> 182

157 ERod (-157)+ 43 Sale> 200 Sale

154 Pivetta> 174 (+20)

110 Richards (-110)> 100 Hill (-10)

100 Perez (-100)> 90 Wacha (-10)

59 Houck + 7 Others (-7)> 66 Houck

 

Will Sale pitch better than ERod? Can he get 200 IP?

 

Will Hill, Wacha and Paxton be better than Richards & Perez?

 

I don't see any clear pluses or minuses, except the hopes that Sale might be great.

[mvp 78]

Agree, and this is why the JBJ trade didn’t make sense prospects, or not. A RH bat would have been a bigger need.

 

Yes, very weird.