A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

I don't think he would have gotten much glory, but maybe they could have worked with him at an earlier age and got him to be a serviceable major leaguer? Dude clearly had pop and was able to take a walk.

 

Just one of thousands of maybes.

[notin]

@OverTheMonster

Red Sox lineup on the day of Brady's first start:

 

1. José Offerman, 2B

2. Darren Lewis, LF

3. Trot Nixon, CF

4. Brian Daubach, RF

5. Morgan Burkhart, 1B

6. Scott Hatteberg, DH

7. Shea Hillenbrand, 3B

8. Doug Mirabelli, C

9. Lou Merloni, SS

SP: Frank Castillo

 

I don't remember the Morgan Burkhart experience. I must have been blackout drunk the summer of 2000.

 

Wasn’t he one of the guys whose first hit was a grand slam? Or was that the highly memorable Creighton Gubanich?

[notin]

Saw the movie American Underdog," yesterday. Made me think how many potentially great players never got a shot and missed the glory.

 

This post just screams “Rick Lancellotti”

[Bellhorn04]

This post just screams “Rick Lancellotti”

 

And his nickname might been "Sir"...

[harmony]

Wasn’t he one of the guys whose first hit was a grand slam? Or was that the highly memorable Creighton Gubanich?

Daniel Nava?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201006120.shtml

 

First MLB pitch nonetheless.

 

[moonslav59]

Looking over the all time leaders in K-BB%, I found the Sox have 4 pitchers in the top 10, 5 in the top 14, 6 in the top 16, 7 in the top 22 and 8 in the top 23. Also, 9 in the top 30.

 

1. Sale 24.9%

4. Pedro 21.0%

6. Schilling 18.1%

10. Price 17.2%

14. Clemens 15.3%

16. Peavy 15.2%

22. Beckett 14.8%

23. Smoltz 14.5%

30. Lester 13.9%

[mvp 78]

Wasn’t he one of the guys whose first hit was a grand slam? Or was that the highly memorable Creighton Gubanich?

 

Burkhart's first hit was a single off of Mike Mussina that advanced Nomar to 2b. He had 5 career HR's and none of them were grannys.

[jad]

I remember exactly where I was when I heard Kennedy had been shot, and also when I heard the call of Nava's g.s.

[harmony]

ZiPS has released its early projected American League standings:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-american-league-edition/

[mvp 78]

ZiPS has released its early projected American League standings:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-american-league-edition/

 

On the 4th place Sox:

 

Four teams in the division projecting as real contenders has a real effect on the projected win totals versus the overall quality of each team. This is perhaps most obvious in the projection for the Boston Red Sox. ZiPS doesn’t think they’re really just an 83-win team in 2022, but when the prospective schedule is actually simulated, they fall a bit short compared to the division’s top trio. The projection swings aren’t as wild as they were before the 2021 season, as the depth of the rotation has improved a bit: Boston is slated to start the season with Chris Sale, and both Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford come out with better forecasts than the last time around. That said, the Sox are still short at least one outfielder and their short-term situation at first base is one of the weakest in baseball.

 

If they don't make any more additions, they probably are a 3rd or 4th place team.

 

I'm used to the Yankees being at top of the preseason rankings. I'm also used to them not even getting into the World Series let alone winning it. Jays and Yanks have been preseason favorites for the past few years.

[mvp 78]

Once the A's start selling off pieces, they'll get leaped by the Mariners. Mariners and Angels may be too close to call depending on injuries.

[mvp 78]

As for the ChiSox being projected to win the Central: ok.

[harmony]

Once the A's start selling off pieces, they'll get leaped by the Mariners. Mariners and Angels may be too close to call depending on injuries.

The Los Angeles Angels are looking to snap MLB's longest current streak of consecutive losing seasons. ZiPS projects only one AL West team with a winning record.

 

In interleague play this year, the AL West is paired with the NL East, which is projected to finish a cumulative 20 games above .500 after finishing a cumulative 51 games below .500 last year when the division was paired against the AL East.

 

This year the AL East is paired with the NL Central, which is projected to finish a cumulative eight games below .500. The AL East is projected to finish a cumulative 18 games above .500.

 

In an annual rite of February, East Coast teams find themselves with favorable preseason projections.

[notin]

And in another annual Rite of February, west coasters have started griping about East Coast bias…

[mvp 78]

The Los Angeles Angels are looking to snap MLB's longest current streak of consecutive losing seasons. ZiPS projects only one AL West team with a winning record.

 

In interleague play this year, the AL West is paired with the NL East, which is projected to finish a cumulative 20 games above .500 after finishing a cumulative 51 games below .500 last year when the division was paired against the AL East.

 

This year the AL East is paired with the NL Central, which is projected to finish a cumulative eight games below .500. The AL East is projected to finish a cumulative 18 games above .500.

 

In an annual rite of February, East Coast teams find themselves with favorable preseason projections.

 

The Dodgers and Astros are always at the top of these rankings. I think the problem is that the A's haven't been to a World Series since 1990 and the Rangers and Mariners have never won one.

[notin]

The Dodgers and Astros are always at the top of these rankings. I think the problem is that the A's haven't been to a World Series since 1990 and the Rangers and Mariners have never won one.

 

The Mariners have never even been to one, and I believe are the only team in MLB that hasn’t…

[harmony]

The Mariners have never even been to one, and I believe are the only team in MLB that hasn’t…

A badge of honor.

 

Some folks cheer on the Elon Musks of the world while others cheer on the less privileged.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

ZiPS has released its early projected American League standings:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-american-league-edition/

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like they use some sort of metrics for these rankings. If so, how are the third-place, wild card-choking Yankees the favorites AGAIN? Did they make ANY improvements to their injury-prone pitching depth or weak-ass defense? Or are rankings just based on how many big bucks new guys NY is expected to sign in the mythical window before the mythical '22 season?

[mvp 78]

The Mariners have never even been to one, and I believe are the only team in MLB that hasn’t…

 

San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, and Milwaukee Brewers have all played in the Series but have never won it.

 

SEA 1977 (no playoff appearances in last 20 years) 20th in 2021 attendance (2004 was the last time they were top 10 in attendance)

SDP 1967 (3 playoff losses last 20 years) 3rd in 2021 attendance

COL 1993 (1 WS loss and 3 playoff losses last 20 years) 7th in 2021 attendance

TEX 1961 (2 WS losses and 3 playoff losses last 20 years) 5th in 2021 attendance

TBR 1998 (2 WS losses and 5 playoff losses last 20 years) 28th in 2021 attendance (will never have good attendance at the Trop)

MIL 1969 (6 playoff losses in last 20 years) 10th in 2021 attendance

 

It's hard to say the Mariners fans are even "long suffering" if they can't even bother to go to a game. Would Rangers fans be considered the most hard up (high attendance and nothing to show for it)?

[mvp 78]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like they use some sort of metrics for these rankings. If so, how are the third-place, wild card-choking Yankees the favorites AGAIN? Did they make ANY improvements to their injury-prone pitching depth or weak-ass defense? Or are rankings just based on how many big bucks new guys NY is expected to sign in the mythical window before the mythical '22 season?

 

The article stated that the Yankees had highly variable results due to injury.

[jad]

A badge of honor.

 

Some folks cheer on the Elon Musks of the world while others cheer on the less privileged.

 

If this were true (i.e., an either/or personal 'choice' where you chose the 'uber-rich' OR the 'poor'), then half (?) the mythical people you cite or imagine to exist are pieces of sh*t.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The article stated that the Yankees had highly variable results due to injury.

 

Good thing the AL East's best playoff team doesn't also have an ace starter vying for his first full season after Tommy John surgery... or an ace reliever trying to come back from his own diced pepper surgery.

[harmony]

San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, and Milwaukee Brewers have all played in the Series but have never won it.

 

SEA 1977 (no playoff appearances in last 20 years) 20th in 2021 attendance (2004 was the last time they were top 10 in attendance)

SDP 1967 (3 playoff losses last 20 years) 3rd in 2021 attendance

COL 1993 (1 WS loss and 3 playoff losses last 20 years) 7th in 2021 attendance

TEX 1961 (2 WS losses and 3 playoff losses last 20 years) 5th in 2021 attendance

TBR 1998 (2 WS losses and 5 playoff losses last 20 years) 28th in 2021 attendance (will never have good attendance at the Trop)

MIL 1969 (6 playoff losses in last 20 years) 10th in 2021 attendance

 

It's hard to say the Mariners fans are even "long suffering" if they can't even bother to go to a game. Would Rangers fans be considered the most hard up (high attendance and nothing to show for it)?

FWIW the 2021 Seattle Mariners ranked in the middle of the pack of American League attendance (although Toronto's attendance was artificially low because of travel restrictions).

 

Indeed Seattle has MLB's longest current postseason drought at 20 years despite a better cumulative regular-season record than nine franchises over that period. The postseason has eluded the Mariners despite seasons of 93, 93, 90, 89, 88, 87, 86 and 85 wins since 2001.

 

This poster was a hardcore Denver Bronco fan for 20 years but lost interest in the NFL altogether after the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in the late 1990s. The Mariners may or may not win a World Series in this poster's lifetime.

 

I can live (and die) with that.

[mvp 78]

FWIW the 2021 Seattle Mariners ranked in the middle of the pack of American League attendance (although Toronto's attendance was artificially low because of travel restrictions).

 

Indeed Seattle has MLB's longest current postseason drought at 20 years despite a better cumulative regular-season record than nine franchises over that period. The postseason has eluded the Mariners despite seasons of 93, 93, 90, 89, 88, 87, 86 and 85 wins since 2001.

 

This poster was a hardcore Denver Bronco fan for 20 years but lost interest in the NFL altogether after the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in the late 1990s. The Mariners may or may not win a World Series in this poster's lifetime.

 

I can live (and die) with that.

 

Wait... If the Mariner's win 2 WS, you'll just give up and move on to something else?

[harmony]

Wait... If the Mariner's win 2 WS, you'll just give up and move on to something else?

Future fandom is uncertain.

 

I remained a Kansas City Royals fan for eight years after the Royals won the 1985 World Series (even though the Minnesota Twins, my childhood favorite team, won two World Series during that eight-year span).

[harmony]

The Red Sox move up to No. 11 in Baseball America's rankings of farm systems:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/2/2/22914786/red-sox-top-prospects-organization-rankings-baseball-america-marcelo-mayer-triston-casas-nick-yorke

[moonslav59]

ZiPS has released its early projected American League standings:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-american-league-edition/

 

WS chances:

 

10.9% HOU

8.4% NYY

8.0% CWS

6.2% TOR

5.9% TBR

2.2% BOS

1.8% LAA, OAK

1.3% CLE

1.2% SEA

 

For a man who depends on ZIPS as much as you do, this sure shows the ALE division to be super dominant over the ALW, next year.

 

The Sox are 6th in playoff chances as well, despite being behind 3 teams in their division.

[harmony]

WS chances:

 

10.9% HOU

8.4% NYY

8.0% CWS

6.2% TOR

5.9% TBR

2.2% BOS

1.8% LAA, OAK

1.3% CLE

1.2% SEA

 

For a man who depends on ZIPS as much as you do, this sure shows the ALE division to be super dominant over the ALW, next year.

 

The Sox are 6th in playoff chances as well, despite being behind 3 teams in their division.

It certainly does suggest the AL East as the dominant division ... it's the annual rite of February.

[moonslav59]

It certainly does suggest the AL East as the dominant division ... it's the annual rite of February.

 

ZIPS=Gospel to you.

[notin]

ZIPS=Gospel to you.

 

No. He’s all about the Book of Steamer…