A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

NBC doesn't do horse racing well. They only want to do the color and lose the essence of what horse racing fans like about the sport.

 

 

Horse crashes?

[mvp 78]

Horse crashes?

 

Getting drunk and jumping off from the top of port o' pottys?

[moonslav59]

Seattle was in third place seven games out of first place on July 27 when the Mariners traded well-regarded reliever Kendall Graveman (and Rafael Montero) to Houston for Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith (who outperformed Graveman the remainder of the season). Later that week the M's acquired Diego Castillo for JT Chargois, who outperformed Castillo the remainder of the season.

 

The Mariners finished the season in second place five games behind the American League champion Houston Astros.

 

If Seattle needs to supplement the bullpen the Mariners can do so without paying Lou Trivino $2.9 million for a projected WAR of 0.0 or 0.2.

 

The Seattle Mariners may never advance to the postseason.

 

Until they do.

 

This has nothing to do with planning for the 2022 pen.

[sk7326]

Top fWAR by any Sox Player since 2000:

 

5.0+ (Red= Pitchers)

 

10.4 Betts '18

9.5 Ellsbury '11

9.4 Pedro '00

8.3 Betts '16

7.9 Pedey '11

7.6 Sale '17

7.6 Nomar '00

7.4 Pedro '03

7.4 Pedro '02

6.8 Bogey '19

6.6 Betts '19

6.5 Schill '04

6.4 Beltre '10

6.4 Pedey '08

6.3 Papi '07

6.2 Sale '18

6.2 Youk '08

6.2 AGon '11

5.9 Youk '09, Devers '19, JD '18

5.8 Manny '03, Nomar '03

5.7 Beckett '07

5.6 Eovaldi '21

5.5 Pedro '01

5.4 Lester '09

5.3 Betts '17, Manny '02, Papi '06, Papi '05, JBJ '16

5.2 Bogey '21, Manny '01

5.1 Porcello '16

5.0 Nixon '03

 

You started in 2000, which is great ... but if you're assembling a list like this, 1999 seems close enough to note ... where Pedro put up a staggering 11.6 fWAR and Nomar had 6.3 for good measure. Pedro's 11.6 fWAR was more than the next 9 pitchers on that staff combined.

[mvp 78]

You started in 2000, which is great ... but if you're assembling a list like this, 1999 seems close enough to note ... where Pedro put up a staggering 11.6 fWAR and Nomar had 6.3 for good measure. Pedro's 11.6 fWAR was more than the next 9 pitchers on that staff combined.

 

Peak Nomar was great. It's just a shame how it ended here.

[Bellhorn04]

Peak Nomar was great. It's just a shame how it ended here.

 

I think it ended perfectly. With a ring on his finger and best wishes on his new contract.

[mvp 78]

I think it ended perfectly. With a ring on his finger and best wishes on his new contract.

 

He was NOT deserving of that ring.

[moonslav59]

You started in 2000, which is great ... but if you're assembling a list like this, 1999 seems close enough to note ... where Pedro put up a staggering 11.6 fWAR and Nomar had 6.3 for good measure. Pedro's 11.6 fWAR was more than the next 9 pitchers on that staff combined.

 

I almost started with 1999 or just the Henry era, which would have been even later.`

[harmony]

This has nothing to do with planning for the 2022 pen.

Nor does the Seattle Mariners' postseason drought since 2001 but Red Sox fans are generous with their reminders.

[mvp 78]

Nor does the Seattle Mariners' postseason drought since 2001 but Red Sox fans are generous with their reminders.

 

The curse of Jay Buhner. If he's not on the roster, you can't make the postseason. In looking at his fangraphs page, I'm surprised he was never a 4 fWAR player. Must have been a horrible fielder.

 

2001 roster also included Norm Charlton, who I believe was the last of the Reds' Nasty Boys to retire.

[moonslav59]

Nor does the Seattle Mariners' postseason drought since 2001 but Red Sox fans are generous with their reminders.

 

I'm not sure any team feels totally content with their pen or pen depth.

[harmony]

I'm not sure any team feels totally content with their pen or pen depth.

The Seattle Mariners may trade from their bullpen depth to address more pressing needs.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners

 

Or not.

[harmony]

Join the 2022 Red Sox team:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-boston-red-sox-pro-scouting-assistant/

[Bellhorn04]

The curse of Jay Buhner. If he's not on the roster, you can't make the postseason. In looking at his fangraphs page, I'm surprised he was never a 4 fWAR player. Must have been a horrible fielder.

 

2001 roster also included Norm Charlton, who I believe was the last of the Reds' Nasty Boys to retire.

 

Norm Charlton played a significant role in the Red Sox winning a couple of rings.

[Bellhorn04]

He was NOT deserving of that ring.

 

Yikes, that was a bad Mr. Magoo on my part. I read 'Pedro' instead of Nomar.

[mvp 78]

Yikes, that was a bad Mr. Magoo on my part. I read 'Pedro' instead of Nomar.

 

I would have re-signed Pedro. He had 9.6 fWAR over the first 3 years of the contract (better than Schilling in that time period).

 

It was sad to see him go, but it was obvious they weren't bringing him back.

[moonslav59]

I would have re-signed Pedro. He had 9.6 fWAR over the first 3 years of the contract (better than Schilling in that time period).

 

It was sad to see him go, but it was obvious they weren't bringing him back.

 

As I recall, his physical showed his arm was attached by a "thread."

 

His IP for the Mets...

 

217

133

28

109

 

[moonslav59]

Some big-name players that left the Sox under Henry's watch (not a complete list):

 

Via Free Agency:

Pedro

Damon

Beltre

Papelbon

Kimbrel

ERod

Porcello

VMart

Ellsbury

Ja. Bay

JBJ

Mueller

Joe Kelly

Alex Gonzalez

 

Via Trade:

Betts

Manny

Lester

AGon

Nomar

Beckett

Lackey

Price

Renfroe

Beni

Renteria

C Crawford

A Miller

C Crisp

Reddick

T Shaw

Youkilis

B Arroyo

W Miley

D Wells

Fossum

 

Edited January 14, 2022 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Only one mistake I can see - Lackey was traded.

[moonslav59]

Only one mistake I can see - Lackey was traded.

 

Yes, I knew that but placed him in the wrong list.

 

Thanks.

[mvp 78]

Only one mistake I can see - Lackey was traded.

 

Alex Gonzalez and Casey Fossum were a "big names."

[moonslav59]

The players we drafted with their comp picks:

 

Pedro> Clay Buchholz +

Damon> Daniel Bard

Beltre> JBJ & Swihart

Papelbon> Brian Johnson

Kimbrel

ERod> ???

Porcello

VMart> Barnes & Owens

(Drafted w OCab com pick) Ellsbury> Kopech

Ja. Bay> Workman & Brentz

JBJ

Mueller

Joe Kelly

Alex Gonzalez> Nick Hagadone

[moonslav59]

Alex Gonzalez and Casey Fossum were a "big names."

 

Fossom helped us get Schilling, so his name matters.

 

Alex G hit 23 HRs with 88 RBI the year after he left Boston. In the 3 seasons after leaving Boston, he had a combined .700 OPS with a 650 PA line of...

.247 21 78 (38 2B+3B)- this from a guy known for great or plus D. Yes, his name is "big" enough. From 2003-2009, his 650 line was .252 17 73 (38 2B+3B)

[notin]

Fossom helped us get Schilling, so his name matters.

 

Alex G hit 23 HRs with 88 RBI the year after he left Boston. In the 3 seasons after leaving Boston, he had a combined .700 OPS with a 650 PA line of...

.247 21 78 (38 2B+3B)- this from a guy known for great or plus D. Yes, his name is "big" enough. From 2003-2009, his 650 line was .252 17 73 (38 2B+3B)

 

 

I like Alex Gonzalez. He may have been one of the most underrated players on the team in the past 40 years…

[Bellhorn04]

I like Alex Gonzalez. He may have been one of the most underrated players on the team in the past 40 years…

 

Based on what numbers? His WAR with the Red Sox was nothing special.

[notin]

Based on what numbers? His WAR with the Red Sox was nothing special.

 

His defensive numbers were…

[notin]

Fossom helped us get Schilling, so his name matters.

 

So why not include Moncada, Kopech and Margot?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

His defensive numbers were…

 

... including the number of times he made a play and I went "whoa!" I looked it up the year Alex played short in Boston in memorybanks.glom, and I had a 7.8 WARF (Whoas Above Replacement Fan).

[Bellhorn04]

His defensive numbers were…

 

Yes, but his offense was terrible and he also missed a lot of games.

 

His 2006 fWAR was 1.6 and his bWAR was 1.2.

 

Theo was so impressed that he signed Julio Lugo to replace him.

[Bellhorn04]

That defensive porn stuff doesn't do much for me. I like the fact that WAR demonstrates how overrated flashy defense can be. A Xander Bogaerts is worth multiples of an A-Gon or an Iggy.