A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Pivetta?

[mvp 78]

Pivetta?

 

Moon is nontendering him.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta?

 

Oops.

 

I’d blame it on being sick, but I just spaced on him.

[Nick]

Dalbec is rookie of the Month...

 

The 26-year-old slashed .339/.431/.774 (1.205 OPS) over 24 August games, smashing seven home runs and driving in 21 runs. Among all players with at least 70 plate appearances during the month, Dalbec’s park-adjusted wRC+ of 214 (more than double the MLB average) put him behind only the Rockies’ C.J. Cron -- the NL Player of the Month for August -- across the Majors. Dalbec's damage included a two-homer, seven-RBI game against the Twins on Aug. 26 at Fenway Park.

 

He ain't going anywhere.....

[oldtimer]

Now, a look at the 2022 Pitching Staff. Personally, I'd like to see us acquire and ace or solid #2 and a solid closer as well as another solid pitcher, but this post is about who are under team control, next season.

 

Starters:

 

Chris Sale: Chris Freakin' Sale is all I have to say.

 

Nathan Eovaldi: Has been a rock since 2020, and not many thought he could ever be this durable.

 

Nick Pivetta: Another nice find by Bloom. Ideally, he’d be a number 5, but he may end up being our 4. If he’s our 3, we are shooting for 2023.

 

Connor Seabold: I like this guy's chances as a decent 4 or 5, and maybe over time, even better.

 

Josh Winckowski, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello, Chris Murphy, Jay Groome, Frank German & Raynel Espinal all offer decent farm depth, and some may be ML ready during 2022. We could probably use a few depth signings to minor league deals.

 

Starter/Relief Pitchers

 

Garrett Whitlock: I like him as a starter more than Houck, but both could be greats in the role. Blooms best find, for sure.

 

Tanner Houck: Maybe he could fill the obvious hole we have at closer, and some speak of him needing a 3rd pitch to be a good long term starter, but I'd be fine with him in either role, or even as our top set-up or swing man (like Whitlock is now.)

 

Relief Pitchers

Matt Barnes: I'm actually confident he can come back as a very good set-up man for us in 2022, but certainly questions are plentiful.

 

Josh Taylor: He's moved up on the chart, and I'm not sure we can count on him as a solid set-up man, but he will make the opening day roster.

 

Darwinzon Hernandez: His injury came at the wrong time. He still needs to watch the walks, but look what Ottavino can do after walking the first guy he faces nearly every game.

 

Hirokazu Sawamura: I'm not counting on him for much high leverage opportunities, but he should make the 26 man roster.

 

Phillips Valdez, Yacksel Rios, Eduardo Bazardo and maybe Austin Davis and Durbin Feltman may show they belong, and there can be some comfort in numbers of marginal pen help, but let's not slot any of these guys in the 26 man roster, right now.

 

Who are going to leave or are likely to leave?

 

$8.5M Richards ($10M or $1.5M buy out likely) Bye-bye

$8.9M Ottavino Not easy to replace

$8.3M ERod Not easy to replace

$4.5M Perez Bye-bye

$2M H Robles Bye-bye

 

Add these guys up and we have about $34M and just 2 need to be replaced in kind or better: ERod & Ottavino.

 

 

What about Brasier?

[moonslav59]

Dalbec is rookie of the Month...

 

The 26-year-old slashed .339/.431/.774 (1.205 OPS) over 24 August games, smashing seven home runs and driving in 21 runs. Among all players with at least 70 plate appearances during the month, Dalbec’s park-adjusted wRC+ of 214 (more than double the MLB average) put him behind only the Rockies’ C.J. Cron -- the NL Player of the Month for August -- across the Majors. Dalbec's damage included a two-homer, seven-RBI game against the Twins on Aug. 26 at Fenway Park.

 

He ain't going anywhere.....

 

It's ...

 

Bobby Freakin' Dee!

[oldtimer]

I continue to be in awe of Schwaber as a hitter who seems to fit the team as a perfect DH candidate. He also is capable of playing LF in an emergency or perhaps even 1st base. At 29 years old I imagine most fans want to give him a 4 or 5 year contract to stay with the team. It does create a problem with Martinez having another year with the Sox unless he opts out. The problem is that it is not optimum defensively to play them both together. In addition, both will carry substantial contracts that could make adding a quality starter and at least one and possibly two high leverage relief pitchers difficult. We have some other infield defensive needs to address but whether that means FA's or trade bodies is hard to determine. Even through JDM is still a viable DH and perhaps because he is, I would hope to trade him or to see him go in and opt out for 2022.

[moonslav59]

I continue to be in awe of Schwaber as a hitter who seems to fit the team as a perfect DH candidate. He also is capable of playing LF in an emergency or perhaps even 1st base. At 29 years old I imagine most fans want to give him a 4 or 5 year contract to stay with the team. It does create a problem with Martinez having another year with the Sox unless he opts out. The problem is that it is not optimum defensively to play them both together. In addition, both will carry substantial contracts that could make adding a quality starter and at least one and possibly two high leverage relief pitchers difficult. We have some other infield defensive needs to address but whether that means FA's or trade bodies is hard to determine. Even through JDM is still a viable DH and perhaps because he is, I would hope to trade him or to see him go in and opt out for 2022.

 

I think the best spot for him is LF most of the time, 1B vs some tough righties and DH when JD needs rest. It could work out nicely.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I continue to be in awe of Schwaber as a hitter who seems to fit the team as a perfect DH candidate. He also is capable of playing LF in an emergency or perhaps even 1st base. At 29 years old I imagine most fans want to give him a 4 or 5 year contract to stay with the team. It does create a problem with Martinez having another year with the Sox unless he opts out. The problem is that it is not optimum defensively to play them both together. In addition, both will carry substantial contracts that could make adding a quality starter and at least one and possibly two high leverage relief pitchers difficult. We have some other infield defensive needs to address but whether that means FA's or trade bodies is hard to determine. Even through JDM is still a viable DH and perhaps because he is, I would hope to trade him or to see him go in and opt out for 2022.

 

At his age no team is going to offer JD a long term contract and no team is going to pay him 19 million dollars for one year, so I'd bet my house he'll be back next season. Damn, if only the SOX had signed him for four years. If the SOX do trade JD, they'd have to eat half his salary. However, this would be nothing new for the SOX FO.

Edited September 4, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[Nick]

At his age no team is going to offer JD a long term contract and no team is going to pay him 19 million dollars for one year, so I'd bet my house he'll be back next season. Damn, if only the SOX had signed him for four years. If the SOX do trade JD, they'd have to eat half his salary. However, this would be nothing new for the SOX FO.

 

Isn't it odd that Sox fans value JD (I do) but when push come to shove there aren't many takers for his 1 year $19.325 pay? Don't even talk about what we would get in return. Probably not much. As you said, we would have to eat some of the money.

[Nick]

I continue to be in awe of Schwaber as a hitter who seems to fit the team as a perfect DH candidate. He also is capable of playing LF in an emergency or perhaps even 1st base. At 29 years old I imagine most fans want to give him a 4 or 5 year contract to stay with the team. It does create a problem with Martinez having another year with the Sox unless he opts out. The problem is that it is not optimum defensively to play them both together. In addition, both will carry substantial contracts that could make adding a quality starter and at least one and possibly two high leverage relief pitchers difficult. We have some other infield defensive needs to address but whether that means FA's or trade bodies is hard to determine. Even through JDM is still a viable DH and perhaps because he is, I would hope to trade him or to see him go in and opt out for 2022.

 

Unlike maybe others on this team, you will never hear him complain about where he bats in the lineup. He just wants to hit.

[Bellhorn04]

Isn't it odd that Sox fans value JD (I do) but when push come to shove there aren't many takers for his 1 year $19.325 pay? Don't even talk about what we would get in return. Probably not much. As you said, we would have to eat some of the money.

 

FanGraphs has JD's 2021 season production to date worth $19 million (2.4 WAR).

 

I hope we have both him and Schwarber in the lineup next year.

[mvp 78]

Isn't it odd that Sox fans value JD (I do) but when push come to shove there aren't many takers for his 1 year $19.325 pay? Don't even talk about what we would get in return. Probably not much. As you said, we would have to eat some of the money.

 

I’d take it. I won’t be mad if he opts out.

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs has JD's 2021 season production to date worth $19 million (2.4 WAR).

 

I hope we have both him and Schwarber in the lineup next year.

 

That contract $ per WAR is trash. It has nothing to do with market value.

[Bellhorn04]

That contract $ per WAR is trash. It has nothing to do with market value.

 

It has to do with the real production value of free agents in general. It's not trash, you just have to know what you're looking at.

 

"Market value" isn't exactly the most predictable or rational value.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It has to do with the real production value of free agents in general. It's not trash, you just have to know what you're looking at.

 

"Market value" isn't exactly the most predictable or rational value.

 

I mean, they're just guys on a website like us, right? We know there are also market values that clubs are happy to invest in (like on eBay, where the only true value of something is what someone is willing to pay for it). A lot of Sox fans didn't like the numbers that Mookie Betts set for himself, but after contracts to lesser players like Machado and Harper, the simple reality is that Mookie was worth more in the industry.

[moonslav59]

At his age no team is going to offer JD a long term contract and no team is going to pay him 19 million dollars for one year, so I'd bet my house he'll be back next season. Damn, if only the SOX had signed him for four years. If the SOX do trade JD, they'd have to eat half his salary. However, this would be nothing new for the SOX FO.

 

He's not 38.

 

Of course, a few teams will offer him a 2 or 3 year deal, minimum, but certainly not at $19M a year. Maybe someone offers him something like $40-50M/3 or $50-55M/4. The question is, and I thinnk I know the answer, is will he take that over $19M/1 plus whatever he thinks he can get next year. If you subtract $19M from my suggested offers and add a year of age to him, what can he get the following winter? My numbers would be $20-30M/2 or $30-35M/3.

 

JD just turned 34, so he will be 35 for most of the 2023 season. I think Nelson Cruz is a pretty good comp, but JD will have to hit well in 2022 to stay a good comp. That is where his risk lays- that and how he hits this September.

 

Even if you add JD's horrific 2020 numbers to his 2021 numbers, he's still over .800.

 

.806 in 781 PAs

31 HRs

112 RBIs

85 XBHs

 

Nelson Cruz hit .848 at ages 32 to 33, but he exploded to .936 at age 35, his first year with SEA.

 

He's been at .933 for the 6 years after that, not counting 2021. I am not saying I or anyone should expect that from JD, but Cruz got a pretty good deal from SEA ($57M/4) at about the same age JD is, now and after similar numbers.

[oldtimer]

We have some potential for young players to join the team in 2022 and beyond. Casas some time in mid to late 2022, Yorke possibly sometime in 2023 and Mayer probably in 2024. Each of these guys may have solid careers and we may have a star in Mayer. Now we need to fill the pipeline with a couple of pitching prospects each year to make the team the consistently competitive force that Bloom is talking about.

[moonslav59]

We have some potential for young players to join the team in 2022 and beyond. Casas some time in mid to late 2022, Yorke possibly sometime in 2023 and Mayer probably in 2024. Each of these guys may have solid careers and we may have a star in Mayer. Now we need to fill the pipeline with a couple of pitching prospects each year to make the team the consistently competitive force that Bloom is talking about.

 

I do think we have a very good chance of getting something very useful from 1 or 2 of this group:

 

Seabold 2022

Bello end of '22 to 2023

Groome end of '22 to 2023

 

Plus some longer shots:

Mata 2023-2024

Song ???

Winckowski 2022-2023

 

We should also note that we just added Houck & Whitlock, two pitchers with a lot of promise and high expectations for filling key roles in 2022 and beyond.

 

I'm not sure things are as bad as some might think they are on the pitching front.

[notin]

I do think we have a very good chance of getting something very useful from 1 or 2 of this group:

 

Seabold 2022

Bello end of '22 to 2023

Groome end of '22 to 2023

 

Plus some longer shots:

Mata 2023-2024

Song ???

Winckowski 2022-2023

 

We should also note that we just added Houck & Whitlock, two pitchers with a lot of promise and high expectations for filling key roles in 2022 and beyond.

 

I'm not sure things are as bad as some might think they are on the pitching front.

 

The Sox minors do lack a high upside starter. But then have we had one of those in the minors since Clay Buchholz?

[mvp 78]

The Sox minors do lack a high upside starter. But then have we had one of those in the minors since Clay Buchholz?

 

Kopech

[moonslav59]

The Sox minors do lack a high upside starter. But then have we had one of those in the minors since Clay Buchholz?

 

No doubt, but we've really only had one guy, Jon Lester be a top ace on a ring team.

 

We have shown we can win by building a strong farm of everyday players and using some in trade to get aces, along with some pitching prospects (Sale, Beckett, Schilling, Pedro) or just sign them (Price, Lackey) to build rotations good enough to win.

 

Of course, developing our own has to be a preferred method, but it may not be essential.

 

I can also see not counting Whitlock as a home grown pitching talent, but he serves the same purpose and very well could become our next ace. Houck may become a very solid SP'er or our next lights out closer. I know the jury is still out, but our young pitching looks better, now, than in a long long time.

[moonslav59]

Kopech

 

He hasn't proven "ace" just yet, but yes, high upside.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No doubt, but we've really only had one guy, Jon Lester be a top ace on a ring team.

 

 

I think a lot of fans of the Lester-Buchholz era forget the Red Sox also drafted, signed and developed Johnathan Papelbon, because he converted to closer.

 

Pap was a wingnut, but definitely the best closer for the longest tenure in Sox history. There's probably a good debate whether either Lester or Papelbon is deserving of enshrinement in Cooperstown, but they each certainly earned plaques in Boston's Hall of Fame.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I think a lot of fans of the Lester-Buchholz era forget the Red Sox also drafted, signed and developed Johnathan Papelbon, because he converted to closer.

 

Pap was a wingnut, but definitely the best closer for the longest tenure in Sox history. There's probably a good debate whether either Lester or Papelbon is deserving of enshrinement in Cooperstown, but they each certainly earned plaques in Boston's Hall of Fame.

 

 

 

No doubt about Papelbon, but I believe when the discussion is about the SOX lack of developing pitchers, it's centered around starters.

[moonslav59]

I think a lot of fans of the Lester-Buchholz era forget the Red Sox also drafted, signed and developed Johnathan Papelbon, because he converted to closer.

 

Pap was a wingnut, but definitely the best closer for the longest tenure in Sox history. There's probably a good debate whether either Lester or Papelbon is deserving of enshrinement in Cooperstown, but they each certainly earned plaques in Boston's Hall of Fame.

 

Good point.

 

We also had a few highly regarded pitching prospects we traded for high quality players, like Casey Fossum, Casey Kelly and Anderson Espinoza, but none really amounted to much. We also traded away some decent to fine pitching: Tony Armas Jr, Carl Pavano, Jorge de la Rosa, Anibal Sanchez, Frankie Montas, Justin Masterson & Michael Kopech along with some so-so pitchers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good point.

 

We also had a few highly regarded pitching prospects we traded for high quality players, like Casey Fossum, Casey Kelly and Anderson Espinoza, but none really amounted to much. We also traded away some decent to fine pitching: Tony Armas Jr, Carl Pavano, Jorge de la Rosa, Anibal Sanchez, Frankie Montas, Justin Masterson & Michael Kopech along with some so-so pitchers.

 

That's a good list of guys we dealt, and it's interesting that the 10 pitchers combined to win a combined 499 MLB games (...so far; Montas and Kopech are still active in the bigs, while Espinoza has yet to make it). That's an average of 50 wins per arm, but that figure is more like a median, since Sanchez, Pavano and de la Rosa won just over 100 each.

 

Now compare the list to the four aces the Sox acquired for most of them: 685 career victories from Martinez, Schilling, Beckett and Sale (the latter, of course, is back atop the rotation, with already as many Ws as any of the 10). That's an average of 171 wins per stud... each traded to Boston for lesser prospects... when the time was right.

[moonslav59]

That's a good list of guys we dealt, and it's interesting that the 10 pitchers combined to win a combined 499 MLB games (...so far; Montas and Kopech are still active in the bigs, while Espinoza has yet to make it). That's an average of 50 wins per arm, but that figure is more like a median, since Sanchez, Pavano and de la Rosa won just over 100 each.

 

Now compare the list to the four aces the Sox acquired for most of them: 685 career victories from Martinez, Schilling, Beckett and Sale (the latter, of course, is back atop the rotation, with already as many Ws as any of the 10). That's an average of 171 wins per stud... each traded to Boston for lesser prospects... when the time was right.

 

No doubt, our system could do better, but it's not like we've produced absolutely nothing.

 

The worst thing about these lists is that most of the names are from over 5-10 years ago, since they were in our farm system- some even 15-20+ years ago.

[moonslav59]

For argument's sake, let's assume we bring back Schwarber and JD does NOT opt out, and no everyday player is traded away.

 

We might see these 13 players on the 26 man roster most of the season, not counting injuries.

 

Vaz & Plawecki C

Dalbeck 1B, 3B, DH

Arroyo 2B, SS, 3B

Devers 3B (1B?)

Bogey SS

Verdugo LF, CF, RF

Kike CF, 2B (utlity)

Renfroe RF, CF, LF

JD DH, LF/RF (shortest)

Schwarber LF/RF (shortest), DH, 1B?

Duran LF/RF, CF, PR

Arauz 2B, SS, 3B

 

Now, the playing time issues. I'm going to go off or a 16 game cycle, about 1/10th of a season and assume everybody gets 10 days of rest (1 out of 16 off).

 

Here is how I could see us maximizing the playing time of our best players:

 

15/16 Players

Devers

Bogey

Schwarber

Kike

JD

 

14/16 Players

Renfroe

Verdugo

 

13/16 Players

Arroyo

 

12/16 Players

Dalbec

 

11/16 Players

Vazquez

 

By Position:

 

3B: Devers 15/ Dalbec 1

SS: Bogey 15/ Arroyo 1

DH: JD 15/ Schwarber 1

RF: Renfroe 14/ Verdugo 2

C: Vaz 11/ Plawecki 5

LF: Schwarber 9/ Verdugo 7

1B: Dalbec 11/ Schwarber 5

CF: Kike 11/ Verdugo 5

2B: Arroyo 12/ Kike 4

 

It looks like maybe Dalbec and Arroyo deserve to play more than 75% of the games (12 or 13 out of 16 games), but with injuries expected, they probably can and will.

Some might argue Renfroe and/or Verdugo should play 15 out of 16 games, and they can by lessening games from Arroyo (Kike to 2B) or Dalbec (Schwarber to 1B).

This also assumes no games for Duran and Arauz, unless someone is injured.

 

It looks like it can be done.

[oldtimer]

He's not 38.

 

Of course, a few teams will offer him a 2 or 3 year deal, minimum, but certainly not at $19M a year. Maybe someone offers him something like $40-50M/3 or $50-55M/4. The question is, and I thinnk I know the answer, is will he take that over $19M/1 plus whatever he thinks he can get next year. If you subtract $19M from my suggested offers and add a year of age to him, what can he get the following winter? My numbers would be $20-30M/2 or $30-35M/3.

 

JD just turned 34, so he will be 35 for most of the 2023 season. I think Nelson Cruz is a pretty good comp, but JD will have to hit well in 2022 to stay a good comp. That is where his risk lays- that and how he hits this September.

 

Even if you add JD's horrific 2020 numbers to his 2021 numbers, he's still over .800.

 

.806 in 781 PAs

31 HRs

112 RBIs

85 XBHs

 

Nelson Cruz hit .848 at ages 32 to 33, but he exploded to .936 at age 35, his first year with SEA.

 

He's been at .933 for the 6 years after that, not counting 2021. I am not saying I or anyone should expect that from JD, but Cruz got a pretty good deal from SEA ($57M/4) at about the same age JD is, now and after similar numbers.

 

JDM turns 35 in August and some teams will give him a bye for 2020. It is possible that a team would offer him 3 years for $40/45 Mil. It might temp him since it would guarantee good money for his age 36 and 37 year old seasons. It he had a fall-off in 2021 he might be left with less.