Barnes extended

[moonslav59]

His priority was building for the long term, no doubt. He was not going to spend big for this year's team. That does not preclude building a contender for this year though.

 

I have likened this past offseason to 2013. It's possible to do both.

 

I think another big part of last winters one year signings was about finding out about a few positions before committing tons of money where we may end up not needing it. We only signed Kike & Sawamura to more than 1 year guaranteed, and those two deals combined for $17M/2.

 

We wanted to find out about...

 

Dalbec at 1B

 

Cordero in LF

 

Arroyo at 2B

 

To some extent, Verdugo & Renfroe in the OF

 

Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Bazardo, Valdez, and to some extent Taylor, Brice and others.

 

The ace in the hole was Sale giving the team a boost in August, if we happened to do well, this year.

 

It looks like Whitlock and Arroyo are making a strong case for FT positions in 2022. Dalbec is floundering, but it looks like he'll be given a few more weeks at minimum. Taylor is winning a 2022 role. Eovaldi is answering the durability questions.

 

As well aswe are doing, I think we are better positioned for 2022 and beyond, and not just because of financial relief on the way. That does not mean we should scrap 2021 in hopes of better years ahead, but I don't think we sacrifice 2022 and beyond to make a hard push for 2021.

 

I think we have 2-3 players that other teams may give us something good for, and who might not really be favorites to make the 40 man roster, next year, due to rule 5 additions and a few expected free agents signings.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-extend-one-of-this-seasons-best-relievers/

 

Fangraphs write up. Didn't know Barnes will wind up with 3rd most appearances for a Sox pitcher sometime next season.

 

To get to this level of dominance, Barnes made an important count-based change. Ben Clemens wrote about Barnes’ “one simple trick” for success back in May, noting that Barnes’ absurdly-high 0-0 count zone rate helped yield more success on his curveball, which he has relied on more when ahead in the count than in years past. It’s seemingly simple, then: If Barnes can get ahead in the count more often, he can thus throw his curveball more often and ultimately get more hitters to whiff. That was Ben’s conclusion in a nutshell, but the more granular breakdown is an enjoyable read. Barnes has a near-70% first strike percentage this season, which is the sixth-highest rate among pitchers with 30 innings; his year-over-year increase of 9.1 percentage points is also the 18th-largest increase in baseball, minimum 20 innings pitched in 2020 and 30 in ’21. Overall, Barnes has thrown 35% of his pitches this season while ahead in the count, ranking as the 12th-highest mark among the 329 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 pitches.

[moonslav59]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-extend-one-of-this-seasons-best-relievers/

 

Fangraphs write up. Didn't know Barnes will wind up with 3rd most appearances for a Sox pitcher sometime next season.

 

To get to this level of dominance, Barnes made an important count-based change. Ben Clemens wrote about Barnes’ “one simple trick” for success back in May, noting that Barnes’ absurdly-high 0-0 count zone rate helped yield more success on his curveball, which he has relied on more when ahead in the count than in years past. It’s seemingly simple, then: If Barnes can get ahead in the count more often, he can thus throw his curveball more often and ultimately get more hitters to whiff. That was Ben’s conclusion in a nutshell, but the more granular breakdown is an enjoyable read. Barnes has a near-70% first strike percentage this season, which is the sixth-highest rate among pitchers with 30 innings; his year-over-year increase of 9.1 percentage points is also the 18th-largest increase in baseball, minimum 20 innings pitched in 2020 and 30 in ’21. Overall, Barnes has thrown 35% of his pitches this season while ahead in the count, ranking as the 12th-highest mark among the 329 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 pitches.

 

Seems like such a simple strategy: get ahead in the counts.

 

I know some pitchers are trying to throw a strike pitch one, but they miss, but many try to nibble a corner right away.

[mvp 78]

Seems like such a simple strategy: get ahead in the counts.

 

I know some pitchers are trying to throw a strike pitch one, but they miss, but many try to nibble a corner right away.

 

Seems simple to me too.

[Kimmi]

I think another big part of last winters one year signings was about finding out about a few positions before committing tons of money where we may end up not needing it. We only signed Kike & Sawamura to more than 1 year guaranteed, and those two deals combined for $17M/2.

 

We wanted to find out about...

 

Dalbec at 1B

 

Cordero in LF

 

Arroyo at 2B

 

To some extent, Verdugo & Renfroe in the OF

 

Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Bazardo, Valdez, and to some extent Taylor, Brice and others.

 

The ace in the hole was Sale giving the team a boost in August, if we happened to do well, this year.

 

It looks like Whitlock and Arroyo are making a strong case for FT positions in 2022. Dalbec is floundering, but it looks like he'll be given a few more weeks at minimum. Taylor is winning a 2022 role. Eovaldi is answering the durability questions.

 

As well aswe are doing, I think we are better positioned for 2022 and beyond, and not just because of financial relief on the way. That does not mean we should scrap 2021 in hopes of better years ahead, but I don't think we sacrifice 2022 and beyond to make a hard push for 2021.

 

I think we have 2-3 players that other teams may give us something good for, and who might not really be favorites to make the 40 man roster, next year, due to rule 5 additions and a few expected free agents signings.

 

No doubt that this year was a building and a transition type year. Thankfully, rebuilding and contending are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

 

As well as we are doing, I agree that the main focus is still on the long term, and I agree that we are better positioned for 2022 and beyond. Like you, I don't think that means that we scrap any hopes of this year, but I do think it means we stay on course. Make minor tweaks to improve the team, but no moves that hurt our farm or take us over the tax limit.

[moonslav59]

No doubt that this year was a building and a transition type year. Thankfully, rebuilding and contending are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

 

As well as we are doing, I agree that the main focus is still on the long term, and I agree that we are better positioned for 2022 and beyond. Like you, I don't think that means that we scrap any hopes of this year, but I do think it means we stay on course. Make minor tweaks to improve the team, but no moves that hurt our farm or take us over the tax limit.

 

There are years and windows of opportunity where focusing a little more on the present than the long term makes some sense. The key is not taking that to an extreme, like I believe DD did. Thank God it worked, and we had 3 years of very exciting baseball to watch and including a fantastic 2018 year.

 

I don't think now is that time. Our window has just opened, and if we do this right, this window can stay open for 2-3 years or even longer, if Bloom is who I think he is.

[Kimmi]

There are years and windows of opportunity where focusing a little more on the present than the long term makes some sense. The key is not taking that to an extreme, like I believe DD did. Thank God it worked, and we had 3 years of very exciting baseball to watch and including a fantastic 2018 year.

 

I don't think now is that time. Our window has just opened, and if we do this right, this window can stay open for 2-3 years or even longer, if Bloom is who I think he is.

 

Agree. I think Bloom's goal is for sustainability well beyond 2-3 years, much like what the Dodgers are currently doing.

[moonslav59]

Agree. I think Bloom's goal is for sustainability well beyond 2-3 years, much like what the Dodgers are currently doing.

 

I totally agree. His eye is on very long sustainability. Theo was like that and later admitted he lost sight of that, at times.

 

This does not mean times occur where a big move or two may be needed to "get a team over the hump" at a slight expense to the future.

[notin]

Agree. I think Bloom's goal is for sustainability well beyond 2-3 years, much like what the Dodgers are currently doing.

 

As mentioned last night, a big part of the Dodger model seems to involve taking unwanted utility infielders and turning them into All Stars (Turner, Taylor, Muncy).

 

Can Bloom pull this off? Christian Arroyo certainly hopes so…

[Kimmi]

I totally agree. His eye is on very long sustainability. Theo was like that and later admitted he lost sight of that, at times.

 

This does not mean times occur where a big move or two may be needed to "get a team over the hump" at a slight expense to the future.

 

Agree again. I know many people are under the impression that Bloom and Henry will not spend big, but I believe they will. They will make the big move when the time is right. It won't be the norm, however, nor should it be.

[Kimmi]

As mentioned last night, a big part of the Dodger model seems to involve taking unwanted utility infielders and turning them into All Stars (Turner, Taylor, Muncy).

 

Can Bloom pull this off? Christian Arroyo certainly hopes so…

 

Ha. I certainly hope so too. I am all about finding these types of players.

[mvp 78]

As mentioned last night, a big part of the Dodger model seems to involve taking unwanted utility infielders and turning them into All Stars (Turner, Taylor, Muncy).

 

Can Bloom pull this off? Christian Arroyo certainly hopes so…

 

Hats off to their scouting department.

 

[mvp 78]

Ha. I certainly hope so too. I am all about finding these types of players.

 

Yes, it definitely helps when you can find All Stars off the scrap heap.

[Kimmi]

Yes, it definitely helps when you can find All Stars off the scrap heap.

 

That's the true talent of a GM and FO. Anyone can sign a superstar if they're willing to spend the money.

 

It doesn't have to be an All Star. Just a good value player.

[moonslav59]

Agree again. I know many people are under the impression that Bloom and Henry will not spend big, but I believe they will. They will make the big move when the time is right. It won't be the norm, however, nor should it be.

 

I agree, and I think that time will be this winter.

 

Even before this season peaked our expectations, I felt we could be very competitive starting in 2022.

 

It should be an interesting winter. Unless we make some trades or expose several promising prospects to Rule 5, we may only have room for 3-4 FAs, tops. If we get near or over the tax line, next year, that would mean we could sign some big contracts. If we make some 3for 1 deals, maybe we sign 5-6 FAs at a lower average cost.

[moonslav59]

Yes, it definitely helps when you can find All Stars off the scrap heap.

 

It's also important to not sign guys like Pablito and Crawford.

[Kimmi]

I agree, and I think that time will be this winter.

 

Even before this season peaked our expectations, I felt we could be very competitive starting in 2022.

 

It should be an interesting winter. Unless we make some trades or expose several promising prospects to Rule 5, we may only have room for 3-4 FAs, tops. If we get near or over the tax line, next year, that would mean we could sign some big contracts. If we make some 3for 1 deals, maybe we sign 5-6 FAs at a lower average cost.

 

I have no idea what Bloom is planning to do this offseason, but I wouldn't be surprised if we exceed the luxury tax limit next year, and I do expect moves of more 'substance' than what we saw this year.

[harmony]

Another Matt Barnes comp from today's chat at MLB Trade Rumors:

Trader Jerry

2:53 Should the M’s trade Graveman?

Steve Adams

2:54 I'd probably be trying to sign him for something similar to what Boston just gave Barnes -- maybe a bit lighter. But I'm buying Graveman's breakout, and the Mariners want to be good starting now, basically.

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-7-14-21-11030.html

[moonslav59]

Another Matt Barnes comp from today's chat at MLB Trade Rumors:

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-7-14-21-11030.html

 

What do you think of BTV raising Barnes' value from about 2 to 22.5 based on the extension?

[vegasbob]

Some of us relate well or enjoy watching certain Red Sox players over the years. In my own case , Matt Barnes is not one of those . I commend those on the site who think he is a winner, and I grant that this year's stats bear that out.

But I still cringe when Matt enters the game and last night's ASG performance shows exactly why. 2 hits, a walk, 25 pitches and a diving, sliding catch of a sure line drive hit on a 3-0 count saved his sorry ass yet again. Ok, he was up against the almost best of the NL but the performance was pure Barnes. As Matt himself said, walking off the mound, " Holy s*** !".

 

Yes, I'm definitely a lifelong Red Sox fan but I am superglad the extension of Matt Barnes is considered a bargain in today's game. I would hate to pay a premium for this thrower with minimum command of the ball or game. The best part of the extension is that Matt is now very tradable as noted by BTV

[Larry Cook]

Some of us relate well or enjoy watching certain Red Sox players over the years. In my own case , Matt Barnes is not one of those . I commend those on the site who think he is a winner, and I grant that this year's stats bear that out.

But I still cringe when Matt enters the game and last night's ASG performance shows exactly why. 2 hits, a walk, 25 pitches and a diving, sliding catch of a sure line drive hit on a 3-0 count saved his sorry ass yet again. Ok, he was up against the almost best of the NL but the performance was pure Barnes. As Matt himself said, walking off the mound, " Holy s*** !".

 

Yes, I'm definitely a lifelong Red Sox fan but I am superglad the extension of Matt Barnes is considered a bargain in today's game. I would hate to pay a premium for this thrower with minimum command of the ball or game. The best part of the extension is that Matt is now very tradable as noted by BTV

 

He was clearly over throwing because he was hyped up to be in an all star game.

[iortiz]

Barnes has had only 3 months of elite pitching and that’s it. He always was wild. His command always was as an issue.

 

My guess is they fixed what they needed to be fixed and expect he keeps that way.

 

They didn’t bought career Barnes. They are buying this new Barnes.

Edited July 15, 2021 by iortiz

[moonslav59]

Barnes has always walked way too many batter, until this year.

 

His K rate has been one of the best in MLB for several years.

 

He's had a low H/9 and HR/9 rate for years.

 

It's always been the BBs.

 

Look at the rise in his K rate every year but 2020:

8.0

8.2

9.6

10.7

14.0

15.4

12.1 (2020)

He's at 14.9, this year.

 

The K% stat is better, because it measure the percent of batters you K, Here are his numbers:

 

20

20

25

29

36

39

30 (2020)

44 (so far this year)

 

MLB Top K% from 2018-2020

 

46 J Hader

41 E Diaz

38 M Barnes

37 C Sale

36 L Hendriks & G Cole

35 J Verlander & J DeGrom

34 M Scherzer

 

Some pretty good company.

[moonslav59]

Barnes has had only 3 months of elite pitching and that’s it. He always was wild. His command always was as an issue.

 

My guess is they fixed what they needed to be fixed and expect he keeps that way.

 

They didn’t bought career Barnes. They are buying this new Barnes.

 

This is not clearly his best 3 months of his career or only real "elite" half season.

 

Here's a look at his other best half seasons from 2017-2020:

 

OPS Against

.512 second half '18

.518 first half '20

.629 first half '17

.639 second half '19

.688 second half '17

.697 first half '19

.706 all 2020

.725 first half '18

 

These are some pretty impressive numbers and remarkably consistent.

[iortiz]

This is not clearly his best 3 months of his career or only real "elite" half season.

 

Here's a look at his other best half seasons from 2017-2020:

 

OPS Against

.512 second half '18

.518 first half '20

.629 first half '17

.639 second half '19

.688 second half '17

.697 first half '19

.706 all 2020

.725 first half '18

 

These are some pretty impressive numbers and remarkably consistent.

You are missing the point.

 

Before this year (career) compared with this 2021 Barnes, Barnes wasn’t this good.

 

No one in his right mind thought he was going to be extended in July. No one.

[moonslav59]

You are missing the point.

 

Before this year (career) compared with this 2021 Barnes, Barnes wasn’t this good.

 

No one in his right mind thought he was going to be extended in July. No one.

 

I'd have extended him before 2021 started. He earned about $8M a year before these last 3 months.

 

Ottavino was being paid $8M,and I wanted Barnes to close over Ottavino from day one.

 

No doubt, these past 3 months are elite- something he only did one other time in his career.

 

I was merely pointing out this isn't the only elite 3 months he's had, which was one of your supporting point.

 

Barnes has been a very good RP'er since 2017. Even his 2020 OPS against was pretty close to his last few years.

 

If he reverts back to the 2017-2020 Barnes, the deal is a break even deal, IMO. Not great- not bad.

[iortiz]

I'd have extended him before 2021 started. He earned about $8M a year before these last 3 months.

 

Ottavino was being paid $8M,and I wanted Barnes to close over Ottavino from day one.

 

No doubt, these past 3 months are elite- something he only did one other time in his career.

 

I was merely pointing out this isn't the only elite 3 months he's had, which was one of your supporting point.

 

Barnes has been a very good RP'er since 2017. Even his 2020 OPS against was pretty close to his last few years.

 

If he reverts back to the 2017-2020 Barnes, the deal is a break even deal, IMO. Not great- not bad.

Matt Barnes never posted this ridiculous WHIP moon. Never. Why? Because his command always was an issue.

 

His ERA wasn’t this good either nor his SO/W, even his run prevention estimators.

 

Cmon moon. What are you talking about?

 

They signed him because they think they will be this good moving forward. As I said my guess they fixed something and they are betting he will be like this moving forward.

[moonslav59]

Matt Barnes never posted this ridiculous WHIP moon. Never. Why? Because his command always was an issue.

 

His ERA wasn’t this good either nor his SO/W, even his run prevention estimators.

 

Cmon moon. What are you talking about?

 

They signed him because they think they will be this good moving forward. As I said my guess they fixed something and they are betting he will be like this moving forward.

 

When did I say he posted a great WHIP.

 

I said he was worth what Ottavino got, this year- $8M.

 

Did most people want Ottavino to close over Barnes- weaknesses and all?

 

I was not happy with Barnes as our closer. Not happy at all.

 

His BB/9 was pathetic, but he was still worth $8M a year, IMO. That's all I'm saying.

 

Stop inventing positions I don't hold.

 

Of course this season is way better than any season he's ever had. He did have one other comparable half season, but that didn't make him this great- not even close.

 

Of course they signed him, because of 2021. I never said otherwise. I just said, I'd have extended him to $8M x 2 before 2021 started. That position has nothing to do with comparing 2021to pre-2021.

 

While his ERA+ from 2017-2020 was not even close to 2021, it was very very respectable and worthy of a nice contract.

 

118

121

129

112 (2020 short season)

179 (This year, so far)

 

127 combined from 2017-2020. Not "elite" for sure, but pretty damn decent.

 

[iortiz]

When did I say he posted a great WHIP.

 

I said he was worth what Ottavino got, this year- $8M.

 

Did most people want Ottavino to close over Barnes- weaknesses and all?

 

I was not happy with Barnes as our closer. Not happy at all.

 

His BB/9 was pathetic, but he was still worth $8M a year, IMO. That's all I'm saying.

 

Stop inventing positions I don't hold.

 

Of course this season is way better than any season he's ever had. He did have one other comparable half season, but that didn't make him this great- not even close.

 

Of course they signed him, because of 2021. I never said otherwise. I just said, I'd have extended him to $8M x 2 before 2021 started. That position has nothing to do with comparing 2021to pre-2021.

 

While his ERA+ from 2017-2020 was not even close to 2021, it was very very respectable and worthy of a nice contract.

 

118

121

129

112 (2020 short season)

179 (This year, so far)

 

127 combined from 2017-2020. Not "elite" for sure, but pretty damn decent.

 

His numbers were never very good moon. You said that since 2017 he has been very good. He hasn’t. Last year he posted a 4+ era.

 

2021 Barnes numbers are the definition of very good.

[harmony]

What do you think of BTV raising Barnes' value from about 2 to 22.5 based on the extension?

BTV is far, far too volatile in its valuations.