Barnes extended

[mvp 78]

are you going to compare Barnes with JD? really? lol

 

Also I never said DFA Barnes. I'm just saying he wasn't a very good RP. That's all.

 

JD has been an elite bat all-in-all.

 

JD sucked in 2020. That must be how he will always be going forward.

 

Barnes sucked in 2020. That must be how he will always be going forward.

 

JD is great in 2021. That must be how he will always be going forward.

 

Barnes is great in 2021. That must be how he will always be going forward.

[mvp 78]

BAA is odder than OPS against.

 

[moonslav59]

When ERA and run prevention estimators are in the same highway, ERA is a realistic stat to evaluate any pitcher.

 

In Barnes' case his ERA and run prevention estimators are in the same highway specially in 2020, which are not very good.

 

You keep saying run prevention estimators.

 

OPS Against is just that, yet you say I’m throwing things against the wall.

 

Tell us exactly what stat you use to measure run prevention and why it’s better than OPS against.

[moonslav59]

Did anyone suggest that one stat was better than the other?

 

OPS against was just an odd stat to single out. Posters now have contributed a broader variety of stats.

 

Good for us.

 

Is BAA better than OPS Against?

 

It’s not like I’m pulling OPS Against out of my ass.

 

I’m the king of OPS and have been for years.

[iortiz]

JD sucked in 2020. That must be how he will always be going forward.

 

Barnes sucked in 2020. That must be how he will always be going forward.

 

JD is great in 2021. That must be how he will always be going forward.

 

Barnes is great in 2021. That must be how he will always be going forward.

 

Compare their career mvp. One is elite. The other is average.

[iortiz]

You keep saying run prevention estimators.

 

OPS Against is just that, yet you say I’m throwing things against the wall.

 

Tell us exactly what stat you use to measure run prevention and why it’s better than OPS against.

 

OPS against is not a run prevention estimator. It is batted ball stat.

 

Run prevention estimators are FIP, xFIP, SIERA, etc. those stats isolate pitcher’s skills. When those stats are on the same highway of ERA’s, ERA defines pretty well pitcher’s skills.

 

Barnes’ run prevention estimators weren’t very good in 2020 as you suggested.

[mvp 78]

Compare their career mvp. One is elite. The other is average.

 

Is Barnes average or bad? You keep talking about his 2020 numbers like they meaning anything.

[mvp 78]

OPS against is not a run prevention estimator. It is batted ball stat.

 

Run prevention estimators are FIP, xFIP, SIERA, etc. those stats isolate pitcher’s skills. When those stats are on the same highway of ERA’s, ERA defines pretty well pitcher’s skills.

 

Barnes’ run prevention estimators weren’t very good in 2020 as you suggested.

 

Again, why continue to isolate one bad season? It makes no sense.

[notin]

When ERA and run prevention estimators are in the same highway, ERA is a realistic stat to evaluate any pitcher.

 

In Barnes' case his ERA and run prevention estimators are in the same highway specially in 2020, which are not very good.

 

With relievers, the small IP samples can be heavily influenced by 1 or 2 bad innings. Go look at Adam Ottavino’s 2020 season.

 

Also ERA ignores how many inherited runners a reliever allows to score and is dependent on following relievers for runners left for the next pitcher. So a RP who gets relieved by a better reliever benefits much more than one followed by a worse reliever. And this is a big factor because of that while IP thing I just mentioned.

 

Also ERA depends on team defense. A pitcher is not a better pitcher just because he has Jose Iglesias behind him instead of Xander Bogaerts…

[notin]

Again, why continue to isolate one bad season? It makes no sense.

 

 

Not even one bad season. 23 innings. That’s like evaluating a starter based on 3 or 4 questionable starts…

[iortiz]

Again, why continue to isolate one bad season? It makes no sense.

 

Moon said his 2017-2020 tenure was very good. 2020 wasn’t very good. I think we both agree on that.

 

Said that, IMO Barnes’ career numbers hasn’t been very good. He is a 4.0 ERA career pitcher. It’s that simple. No matter how you slice it. You can argue that ERA is a primitive stat but a 4.0 ERA career RP (specially a RP) can’t be very good in my book, sorry.

 

Aside stats, his command always was an issue. It’s not a secret. Lately his command has been shaky but all in all he’s been terrific this year.

[iortiz]

With relievers, the small IP samples can be heavily influenced by 1 or 2 bad innings. Go look at Adam Ottavino’s 2020 season.

 

Also ERA ignores how many inherited runners a reliever allows to score and is dependent on following relievers for runners left for the next pitcher. So a RP who gets relieved by a better reliever benefits much more than one followed by a worse reliever. And this is a big factor because of that while IP thing I just mentioned.

 

Also ERA depends on team defense. A pitcher is not a better pitcher just because he has Jose Iglesias behind him instead of Xander Bogaerts…

 

His career numbers are not a short sample. He is a 4.0 ERA career pitcher. That’s not very good as I said.

 

While ERA doesn’t tell you all true, his 2020 SIERA, xFIP, FIP are in the same highway of his 2020 ERA, hence his 2020 ERA is actually telling you what kind of pítcher Matt Barnes was — not very good.

[moonslav59]

Again, why continue to isolate one bad season? It makes no sense.

 

One season that was only 40% long at that.

[iortiz]

One season that was only 40% long at that.

 

You said he was very good that year moon. He wasn’t.

[moonslav59]

Moon said his 2017-2020 tenure was very good. 2020 wasn’t very good. I think we both agree on that.

 

Said that, IMO Barnes’ career numbers hasn’t been very good. He is a 4.0 ERA career pitcher. It’s that simple. No matter how you slice it. You can argue that ERA is a primitive stat but a 4.0 ERA career RP (specially a RP) can’t be very good in my book, sorry.

 

Aside stats, his command always was an issue. It’s not a secret. Lately his command has been shaky but all in all he’s been terrific this year.

 

I've never neglected the bad walk numbers.

 

OPS has been proven to be one of the most accurate stats at estimating run creation for hitters and prevention for pitchers.

 

ERA, SIERA, ERA+ and ERA- measure runs allowed and adjusted runs allowed. They ate not projecting run prevention.

 

Maybe our big issue is over terminology and definitions.

 

Maybe to you, "very good" is "great" to me, and good is very good. Average is good....

 

I have used OPS to an extreme over the last few years. To me, it shows a lot. It factors walks and getting on base and also power.

 

ERA depends heavily on park dimensions, team defense and strength of opponent. While WHIP does capture much of what goes into run prevention, a walk is = to a hit and a single is = to a HR.

 

You can choose to ignore OPS and OPS Against, but that stat shows Barnes has been much better than Average. Whether it's good or very good might be based on how we define those terms.

 

If you go by ERA+. Barnes was 27% better than average from 2017-2020 combined. You never answered if you thought that was just good or "very good." I don't like that stat for RP'ers, but I'm using it because ERA is what you seem to like.

 

You chose to use SIERA, FIP and xFIP to bash Barnes' 2020 season and also said he was "never very good," well, let's look at your chosen stats and Barnes from 2017-2020. Out of 218 RP'ers with 100+ IP, here's how Barnes ranked in those three stats:

 

SIERA

32nd at 3.21 (That is top 15% and it includes his off 2020 season)

 

xFIP

15th at 3.12 (That's top 7% or nearing elite status with your stat!)

 

FIP

 

(BTW, I prefer xFIP- over xFIP for the same reasons I prefer ERA- or ERA+ and even SIERA over plain ole ERA.)

 

Ok, say he was not good in 2020, but don't say he was "never" very good. I'll take out 2020 and now tell me, he was never "very good" from 2017-2019:

 

225 RP'ers with 90+ IP:

 

29th in SIERA (3.12) top 13%

13th in xFIP (3.02) top 6% and better than Kenley Jackson, Brad Hand and many others.

31st in FIP (3.12) top 13%

 

I'm not all that big on FIP, but it does have value.

xFIP- has him ranked 13th,also. That is close to elite, and IMO "very good" by any way you slice and dice it.

 

Really, only BB/9 and WHIP show him not to be very good from 2017-2019. Even here, he is above average.

 

[moonslav59]

You said he was very good that year moon. He wasn’t.

 

I said he was very good from 2017-2020. I explained later I meant combined and pointed out his.705 OPS against in 2020 was not all that bad.

 

No, he was not very good in 2020.

 

I think we are just having difficulty understanding our terminology and definitions and not so much the actual facts.

 

When I say 2017-2020, I mean combined numbers, otherwise, I'd say every year from 2017 to 2020.

 

He clearly was very good from 2017-2019 by even teh stats you choose, yet you said He was "never very good." Did you not mean that?

 

Was it just hyperbole like you saying everybody bashed Nick?

[iortiz]

SIERA, FIP, xFIP, etc. are pitcher's run prevention stats moon. They isolate pitcher's abilities. ZIPs, Streamer, FGDC and others always protect these estimators year after year, specially FIP.

 

OPS against is a batted ball stat. It is not a run prevention stat by any means.

 

If a RP allows three hits in every IP he pitches his OPS against goes up as hell, but he can still hold the inning without a run.

 

This is why run prevention stats like FIP, xFIP, SIERA are more important than batted ball stats in RPs.

[iortiz]

I said he was very good from 2017-2020. I explained later I meant combined and pointed out his.705 OPS against in 2020 was not all that bad.

 

No, he was not very good in 2020.

 

I think we are just having difficulty understanding our terminology and definitions and not so much the actual facts.

 

When I say 2017-2020, I mean combined numbers, otherwise, I'd say every year from 2017 to 2020.

 

He clearly was very good from 2017-2019 by even teh stats you choose, yet you said He was "never very good." Did you not mean that?

 

Was it just hyperbole like you saying everybody bashed Nick?

 

A 700 OPS against is not a very good number in my book. It is average.

 

Again, you won't find a very good career pitcher with a 4.0 ERA career number. Simply there's noway, even if you want to minimize ERA.

Edited July 15, 2021 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

Barnes has a career ERA+ of 116 and a FIP of 3.47. Not spectacular, bot good to very good.

[iortiz]

Barnes has a career ERA+ of 116 and a FIP of 3.47. Not spectacular, bot good to very good.

 

He is a 3.5 fWAR (which considers FIP) RP from 2014 to 2020.

 

Where do you put that fWAR figure through that time for a reliever pitcher in your book?

 

To put it in in context, Josh Hader who is actually a very good relief pitcher in my book has a 8.0 fWAR figure through 5 five years —1 plus year less than Barnes' period.

[harmony]

Barnes has a career ERA+ of 116 and a FIP of 3.47. Not spectacular, bot good to very good.

Dodger righthander Blake Treinen has a career ERA+ of 138 and a FIP of 3.31.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/treinbl01.shtml

 

Treinen in January signed a two-year, $17.5 million contract with a team option for a third year.

Edited July 15, 2021 by harmony

[moonslav59]

SIERA, FIP, xFIP, etc. are pitcher's run prevention stats moon. They isolate pitcher's abilities. ZIPs, Streamer, FGDC and others always protect these estimators year after year, specially FIP.

 

OPS against is a batted ball stat. It is not a run prevention stat by any means.

 

If a RP allows three hits in every IP he pitches his OPS against goes up as hell, but he can still hold the inning without a run.

 

This is why run prevention stats like FIP, xFIP, SIERA are more important than batted ball stats in RPs.

 

I disagree, but even using your stats Barnes was very good from 2017-2019, but you won't admit it.

 

You prefer to single out his 23 IP 2020 season, as if that is what counts most.

 

Was Brnes very good from 2017-2019 or not?

 

He was top 6% in one of your stats and top 13% in two others. If that's not "very good" then our disagreement is not about Barnes. It's about what we think is very good.

[moonslav59]

A 700 OPS against is not a very good number in my book. It is average.

Yes, I agreed 2020's .705 OPS against was not good- just not all that bad either.

 

If a hitter was hitting .705, we'd want him benched.

[Bellhorn04]

Dodger righthander Blake Treinen has a career ERA+ of 138 and a FIP of 3.31.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/treinbl01.shtml

 

Treinen in January signed a two-year, $17.5 million contract with a team option for a third year.

 

Yes, I think you may have mentioned Treinen's contract earlier.

[Bellhorn04]

He is a 3.5 fWAR (which considers FIP) RP from 2014 to 2020.

 

Where do you put that fWAR figure through that time for a reliever pitcher in your book?

 

To put it in in context, Josh Hader who is actually a very good relief pitcher in my book has a 8.0 fWAR figure through 5 five years —1 plus year less than Barnes' period.

 

I'm not sure what to think of fWAR for pitchers.

 

fWAR absolutely loves Rick Porcello. His career fWAR is nearly 50% better than his bWAR.

 

In 2020 Porcello registered a 1.7 fWAR in 59 innings with a 5.64 ERA.

 

In 2019 he had a 1.8 fWAR in 174 innings with a 5.52 ERA.

 

If memory serves correctly, you are not a big fan of his.

[moonslav59]

He is a 3.5 fWAR (which considers FIP) RP from 2014 to 2020.

 

Where do you put that fWAR figure through that time for a reliever pitcher in your book?

 

To put it in in context, Josh Hader who is actually a very good relief pitcher in my book has a 8.0 fWAR figure through 5 five years —1 plus year less than Barnes' period.

 

From 2017-2019, Barnes places 21st in fWAR at 3.5.

 

The 8th best RP'er was at 4.6

17th best at 3.8

 

This is out of hundreds of RP'ers.

 

If you include 2020, he's 26th.

 

From 2016-2020, he's 34th out of over 210 RP'ers (7 per team)

 

If you want to hold 2014-2015 against him, his 2014-2020 fWAR places 65th out of 210.

 

That's top one-third- clearly better than average but maybe not good enough to say "very good".

 

My point was about him being very good for a good period of time (2017-2019), so good that even if you added the s0-s0 2020 numbers, he still comes out very good.

 

My original point was that his 2017-2020 combined numbers warranted a contract close to $8M x 2. I still think that is correct or not far off..

[iortiz]

I disagree, but even using your stats Barnes was very good from 2017-2019, but you won't admit it.

 

You prefer to single out his 23 IP 2020 season, as if that is what counts most.

 

Was Brnes very good from 2017-2019 or not?

 

He was top 6% in one of your stats and top 13% in two others. If that's not "very good" then our disagreement is not about Barnes. It's about what we think is very good.

 

You don't like ERA, fine!

 

As I just said, a 3.5 fWAR RP from 2014 to 2020 is not a very good RP in my book. No way.

 

Hader posted in a single year a 2.6 fWAR. Chapaman? a 3.2 fWAR in a single year. Papelbon a 2.8 fWAR in a single year. Koji a 3.1 fWAR in a single year. That's the definition of very good.

 

Barnes? his best year was a 1.3 fWAR in 2109 —before 2021.

 

OTOH if Barnes continues this way, He will end up with a 3+ fWAR figure this year which is the definition of very good.

 

The list of very good RPs is long. Barnes simply doesn't belongs there —yet.

[iortiz]

I'm not sure what to think of fWAR for pitchers.

 

fWAR absolutely loves Rick Porcello. His career fWAR is nearly 50% better than his bWAR.

 

In 2020 Porcello registered a 1.7 fWAR in 59 innings with a 5.64 ERA.

 

In 2019 he had a 1.8 fWAR in 174 innings with a 5.52 ERA.

 

If memory serves correctly, you are not a big fan of his.

 

 

Porcello compared with very good starting pitchers is not very good even if you evaluate them with fWAR.

 

His best fWAR year was a 5.1 figure. His other years were below 3 most of them which is not very good.

 

David Price had a 6.7 fWAR in a single year. Scherzer, Verlander, Felix, etc were/are very good pitchers. Porcello is/was not.

[iortiz]

From 2017-2019, Barnes places 21st in fWAR at 3.5.

 

The 8th best RP'er was at 4.6

17th best at 3.8

 

This is out of hundreds of RP'ers.

 

If you include 2020, he's 26th.

 

From 2016-2020, he's 34th out of over 210 RP'ers (7 per team)

 

If you want to hold 2014-2015 against him, his 2014-2020 fWAR places 65th out of 210.

 

That's top one-third- clearly better than average but maybe not good enough to say "very good".

 

My point was about him being very good for a good period of time (2017-2019), so good that even if you added the s0-s0 2020 numbers, he still comes out very good.

 

My original point was that his 2017-2020 combined numbers warranted a contract close to $8M x 2. I still think that is correct or not far off..

 

If you rank 21th, you are not very good regardless the contest moon.

[mvp 78]

If you rank 21th, you are not very good regardless the contest moon.

 

Uh, on average, that’d be the best reliever on many teams.