Barnes extended

[mvp 78]

He's been much better than most people expected.

 

He was solid 2017-19. He stunk last year and that really stuck with most people. He's having a career year so far. We'll have to see if he can keep it up.

[Kimmi]

He was solid 2017-19. He stunk last year and that really stuck with most people. He's having a career year so far. We'll have to see if he can keep it up.

 

The good news is that his advanced stats are even better than his current ERA.

[Bellhorn04]

If he went to FA, he gets more money IMO. Good deal.

 

I think he would have gotten 3 years guaranteed for sure.

 

If Liam Hendriks gets 4/54, Barnes has to get 3/36 or thereabouts. Assuming he continues to pitch well this year.

 

He would be the best reliever on the free agent market.

[notin]

I think he would have gotten 3 years guaranteed for sure.

 

If Liam Hendriks gets 4/54, Barnes has to get 3/36 or thereabouts. Assuming he continues to pitch well this year.

 

He would be the best reliever on the free agent market.

 

 

An argument could be made for Archie Bradley, who is having a subpar year but is younger and has had a career very comparable to Barnes…

[mvp 78]

I think he would have gotten 3 years guaranteed for sure.

 

If Liam Hendriks gets 4/54, Barnes has to get 3/36 or thereabouts. Assuming he continues to pitch well this year.

 

He would be the best reliever on the free agent market.

 

Interesting that he didn't test the market. Maybe he saw the sign of the contract and figured that was enough. Must be happy here. Isn't he from CT?

[moonslav59]

No, it's not. Garrett Whitlock is a steal.

 

Barnes likely left some money on the table, but this is also a very fair deal for him.

 

Good deal for both sides.

 

Whitlock being a steal or a bigger steal does not negate Barnes being a steal.

 

Maybe we don't agree on the term "steal," but to me, leaving 33-50% on the table is a steal.

[Bellhorn04]

An argument could be made for Archie Bradley, who is having a subpar year but is younger and has had a career very comparable to Barnes…

 

Yes, he's a pretty good comp. Recency Effect not in his favor.

 

Maybe I should have said "would be the reliever most likely to get the biggest contract".

[moonslav59]

He was solid 2017-19. He stunk last year and that really stuck with most people. He's having a career year so far. We'll have to see if he can keep it up.

 

He was very good before 2020's 23 IP sample size.

 

From 2017-2019:

3.77 ERA (123 ERA+)

3.12 FIP over 196 IP

1.288 WHIP (fueled by a 4.5 BB/9 rate)

13.3 K/9

 

If you throw out 2020's seemingly outlier bad 1/3 season and 2021's seemingly outlier great 2021 1/2 season, he's a solid RP'er, who IMO is worth way more than what he got.

[iortiz]

If you people are going to evaluate the deal based on this year, yes, it is a steal.

 

OTOH Barnes wasn't even in the radar to be a legit closer and much more less to sign an extension. They were going to go by committee but Barnes performed very impressive since day 1 and earned the closer job.

 

He always was wild. He always had velo but his command used to be very poor. The vintage Barnes was not very good and I really doubt they would have offered vintage Barnes a contract.

 

Said that Bloom expects he continuous this way at least the next 2 years. Seems like they fixed what they needed to be fixed in Barnes. It's working although they are overusing him because this team has won a lot close games. They need to share the load with Ottavino/Whitlock/Tyalor who have been taxed too.

[mvp 78]

He was very good before 2020's 23 IP sample size.

 

From 2017-2019:

3.77 ERA (123 ERA+)

3.12 FIP over 196 IP

1.288 WHIP (fueled by a 4.5 BB/9 rate)

13.3 K/9

 

If you throw out 2020's seemingly outlier bad 1/3 season and 2021's seemingly outlier great 2021 1/2 season, he's a solid RP'er, who IMO is worth way more than what he got.

 

3.77 ERA for a reliever isn't that great IMO.

[mvp 78]

OTOH Barnes wasn't even in the radar to be a legit closer and much more less to sign an extension. They were going to go by committee but Barnes performed very impressive since day 1 and earned the closer job.

 

I don't remember hearing them going to closer by committee at all this year. It was Barnes' job to lose, but they could go to Ottavino depending on matchups. I'm not sure that's really "closer by committee."

[iortiz]

I don't remember hearing them going to closer by committee at all this year. It was Barnes' job to lose, but they could go to Ottavino depending on matchups. I'm not sure that's really "closer by committee."

If I recall well Barnes was the first option but It wasn't a secure role.

 

What I mean is that it was not like you sign Kimbrel and give up very soon if he shits the bed the first 3-4 appearances. Patience wouldn't have been managed the same way as you do with a proven closer. Kind of my point.

 

i.e. If Barnes had s*** the bed early, his role and contract wouldn't have been there moving forward

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Interesting that he didn't test the market. Maybe he saw the sign of the contract and figured that was enough. Must be happy here. Isn't he from CT?

 

That's what it feels like--he wants to stay here, stay in the area. Maybe he has kids or something and doesn't want to uproot them.

 

He could also get hurt over the next few months, get nothing in free agency, and made a calculated decision in that regard.

[iortiz]

Barnes is more than happy with that figure, trust me lol

 

It is still a loooot of money.

[harmony]

Mere speculation, but ...

 

Matt Barnes' agent may have approached Red Sox management with Liam Hendriks as a comp. Last offseason Hendriks signed a three-year, $54 million contract.

 

The front office may have countered with Alex Colome, Mark Melancon and Greg Holland, who last offseason, like Barnes this year, were coming off solid campaigns. Colome and Melancon signed one-year, $3 million contracts while Holland signed a one-year, $2.75 million contract.

 

Negotiations may have resulted in a contract in the range of those signed last offseason by Blake Treinen and Trevor May.

 

Or not.

 

Treinen and May signed a two-year, $14 million contracts.

[Maxbialystock]

To me Barnes is almost a carbon copy of Kimbrel: both basically go with just two pitches, a very good knuckle curve and a pretty good fast ball. The difference is that Barnes is not nearly the prima donna Kimbrel is. He just goes out there and does his job.

 

I agree with those who say this deal was/is good for both sides. Like Kimmi, I am nervous about long-term contracts with closers. In the case of the Sox, I think right now they have at least three guys (Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock) who could close and maybe a fourth (Sawamura). Plus the two lefties, Taylor and Hernandez, have been pretty effective.

 

Indeed, these days it's a simple fact that a deep bullpen is essential. Starters get pulled earlier and earlier because stats show the 3d time through the opposing lineup is fraught with peril. And 162 games in 180 days, give or take, makes for a very long and wearing season. Thus did Andriese, who currently is vying for the worst reliever in the history of baseball, find himself pitching in the 12th inning with a 2 run lead, which he quickly lost (of course).

[Bellhorn04]

3.77 ERA for a reliever isn't that great IMO.

 

In 2019 Barnes had an ERA of 3.78, which translated to an ERA+ of 129, which is pretty good.

[Bellhorn04]

To me Barnes is almost a carbon copy of Kimbrel: both basically go with just two pitches, a very good knuckle curve and a pretty good fast ball. The difference is that Barnes is not nearly the prima donna Kimbrel is. He just goes out there and does his job.

 

Kimbrel may be a prima donna, but his career numbers are MUCH better than Barnes's. There's no real comparison.

[notin]

In 2019 Barnes had an ERA of 3.78, which translated to an ERA+ of 129, which is pretty good.

 

It is. But with only 64 IP, every earned run drops that ERA+ down by about 4.

 

And as Barnes wasn’t the closer, that number can be drastically influenced by the ability of subsequent relievers to hold his IR.

 

Really, these ERA numbers for relief pitchers are tenuous at best due to sample size and role…

[Bellhorn04]

It is. But with only 64 IP, every earned run drops that ERA+ down by about 4.

 

And as Barnes wasn’t the closer, that number can be drastically influenced by the ability of subsequent relievers to hold his IR.

 

Really, these ERA numbers for relief pitchers are tenuous at best due to sample size and role…

 

OPS against would probably be better.

[Maxbialystock]

Kimbrel may be a prima donna, but his career numbers are MUCH better than Barnes's. There's no real comparison.

 

Good for him. I can't forget the 2018 postseason when Kimbrel's ERA was 5.91 and Barnes's was 1.04, Brasier 1.04, Kelly .79, Eovaldi (who relieved and started) 1.61, and Hembree 0.00.

[notin]

Kimbrel may be a prima donna, but his career numbers are MUCH better than Barnes's. There's no real comparison.

 

Agreed.

 

At age 31, Barnes just made his first all star team. By his age 31 season, Kimbrel had been selected 7 times…

[mvp 78]

OPS against would probably be better.

 

Career 687. Has a 518 OPS against this season. His second best is 624.

 

His OPS against is best on the team followed by Ottavino at 574 and Whitlock at 618. Nobody else is under 650. League average is 729.

[Bellhorn04]

Career 687. Has a 518 OPS against this season. His second best is 624.

 

His OPS against is best on the team followed by Ottavino at 574 and Whitlock at 618. Nobody else is under 650. League average is 729.

 

And Barnes's OPS+ would be even better, as Fenway has a Park Factor of 109 this year and 107 multi-year (no idea what time frame multi-year covers).

[moonslav59]

3.77 ERA for a reliever isn't that great IMO.

 

No, it's not, although ERA is not a good RP'er stat.

 

His 1.288 WHIP is nothing to write home about either, but his K rate has been off the charts and his FIP is decent.

 

The thing is, decent gets you more than $8M a year, these days.

 

The "recency effect" often warps many deals much higher.

 

Whta Barnes does over the next 3 months might greatly affect what he would have gotten as a FA next winter.

[mvp 78]

No, it's not, although ERA is not a good RP'er stat.

 

His 1.288 WHIP is nothing to write home about either, but his K rate has been off the charts and his FIP is decent.

 

The thing is, decent gets you more than $8M a year, these days.

 

The "recency effect" often warps many deals much higher.

 

Whta Barnes does over the next 3 months might greatly affect what he would have gotten as a FA next winter.

 

Decent is more than $8M? I thought contracts were going to be suppressed due to COVID.

[moonslav59]

OPS against would probably be better.

 

Yes, and a career .687 OPS is better than "decent."

 

It is .701 Home and .670 Away

 

Barnes turned a corner in 2017, so I'm not sure counting his first few years does justice to who he is now. Let's look at his OPS Against starting in 2017:

 

.655

.624

.666

.706 (short 2020 season)

.518 (so far, this year)

 

Kimbrel since 2017

.444

.565

1.019 (2019)

.693

.330

.

[moonslav59]

Decent is more than $8M? I thought contracts were going to be suppressed due to COVID.

 

Umm, stadiums are full again.

[mvp 78]

Umm, stadiums are full again.

 

So contract weren't suppressed last offseason?

[Bellhorn04]

So contract weren't suppressed last offseason?

 

Overall, they were a little suppressed. And most pitchers seemed to sign one-year deals.

 

But after the deals Tatis and Lindor got, it sure seems like happy days are here again.