Barnes extended

[harmony]

He was already a millionaire.

 

He also could have gotten more- much more.

 

This was not "market value."

Some posters offer bald opinions while others post supporting numbers.

[moonslav59]

What's wrong with Hendriks as a comp? Looks like a pretty solid one to me.

 

Exactly.

 

Hendricks was almost 32 when he signed his 3 year deal at $18M a year... a little older than Barnes will be when his new deal starts.

 

He began his career as a starter and was pretty bad his first 4 seasons.

 

He had a good season in 2015 at age 26.

2.92 ERA

1.082 WHIP

 

From 2016-2018, he was nothing all that special:

4.01 ERA

1.297 WHIP

 

He did very well in 2019 and the short 2020 season- better than Barnes had done, until this year.

1.79 ERA

0.897 WHIP in 110 IP

 

While Barnes may not have has the spectacular recent 110 IP like Hendricks, he does have 37 IP, this year that compares to that:

2.68 ERA

0.865 WHIP (15.1 K/0 and 2.4 BB/9)

 

Also, he was consistently very good from 2016-2020- a much longer stretch that Liam and as recent as can be.

 

2016-2018

3.86/1.293 (Hendricks: 4.01 1.297)

 

2019-2020

3.92/1.385

 

2016-2020

3.88/1.321 (Hendricks: 3.08/1.129)

 

Let's compare Hendricks 2016-2020to Barnes 2017-2021:

 

Barnes

3.66/1.236 (13.4 K to 4.3 BB) 3.11 FIP in 256 IP

127 ERA+

79 ERA-

 

Hendricks

3.08/1.129 (11.4 K to 2.4 BB) 2.59 FIP in 263 IP

136 ERA+

73 ERA-

 

[moonslav59]

Some posters offer bald opinions while others post supporting numbers.

 

Like I don't provide numbers?

 

LOL

 

BTW, I'm not saying Barnes is better than Hendricks was when he signed, but he's not that far away.

[moonslav59]

Some posters offer bald opinions while others post supporting numbers.

 

Bald or bold?

[Bellhorn04]

Liam Hendriks had posted 5.2 fWAR in 99 games over his two previous seasons while Matt Barnes has posted 5.2 fWAR in 362 games over his entire MLB career.

 

As you know, the differences in bWAR are much smaller. fWAR reliews heavily on FIP.

 

If GM's valued fWAR as much as you seem to be suggesting, Rick Porcello would be in a major league uniform this year. after turning in a 1.7 fWAR in 59 innings last year.

[moonslav59]

As you know, the differences in bWAR are much smaller. fWAR reliews heavily on FIP.

 

If GM's valued fWAR as much as you seem to be suggesting, Rick Porcello would be in a major league uniform this year. after turning in a 1.7 fWAR in 59 innings last year.

 

bWAR

 

Henriks 2015-2020

0.7

0.2

0.2

3.4

1.4 (2020 reduced season)

Total 5.9

 

Barnes (2016-2021)

0.3

0.7

1.1

1.4

0.3 (reduced 2020 season)

1.4 (as of now)

Total 5.2 with the rest of 2021 to go

 

Barnes has been more consistent.

Hendriks had a great 2019 season that boosts his numbers.

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Even if you value Barnes at 75% of Hendriks, that's about 3 years and 40 million, which I think is a fair estimate.

[moonslav59]

Even if you value Barnes at 75% of Hendriks, that's about 3 years and 40 million, which I think is a fair estimate.

 

I could see Barnes getting $42M/3 or $52M/4, this winter, assuming no major implosion.

 

Honestly, I think he'd get this deal he just signed for had he had a normal Barnes season, this year.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

This arguably takes the Red Sox out of the C.Kimbrel sweepstakes, since a big benefit of acquiring Kimbrel was the uncertainty regarding next year's closer.

 

Maybe the Red Sox will focus now on acquiring a starting pitcher.

[moonslav59]

This arguably takes the Red Sox out of the C.Kimbrel sweepstakes, since a big benefit of acquiring Kimbrel was the uncertainty regarding next year's closer.

 

Maybe the Red Sox will focus now on acquiring a starting pitcher.

 

We could replace Barnes with Kimbrel and Ottavino with Barnes, but I agree.

[Larry Cook]

We could still use the trade deadline to acquire two quality relievers.

 

We have a quality starter coming back in august.

[moonslav59]

We could still use the trade deadline to acquire two quality relievers.

 

We have a quality starter coming back in august.

 

We may need 3 starters.

[harmony]

Like I don't provide numbers?

 

LOL

 

BTW, I'm not saying Barnes is better than Hendricks was when he signed, but he's not that far away.

I joined this thread with a numbers-laden post in response to your first post that simply read: "Kimmi, this is a highway robbery steal."

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20141-Barnes-extended?p=1401762&highlight=robbery#post1401762

 

Should Matt Barnes fire his agent?

[notin]

I joined this thread with a numbers-laden post in response to your first post that simply read: "Kimmi, this is a highway robbery steal."

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20141-Barnes-extended?p=1401762&highlight=robbery#post1401762

 

 

 

Should Matt Barnes fire his agent?

 

Maybe the Connecticut native Barnes decided to stay local. I doubt he would have gotten that much more in free agency…

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe the Connecticut native Barnes decided to stay local. I doubt he would have gotten that much more in free agency…

 

All it takes is one team though. Liam Hendriks's stat sheet didn't really merit 54 million, either.

[harmony]

All it takes is one team though. Liam Hendriks's stat sheet didn't really merit 54 million, either.

^^^^^^^^^^^

[Hugh2]

All it takes is one team though. Liam Hendriks's stat sheet didn't really merit 54 million, either.

 

Exactly, all it takes is one team. Which is why guys get overpaid every time in FA.

 

This was a steal.

[moonslav59]

I joined this thread with a numbers-laden post in response to your first post that simply read: "Kimmi, this is a highway robbery steal."

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20141-Barnes-extended?p=1401762&highlight=robbery#post1401762

 

Should Matt Barnes fire his agent?

 

I just thought it was funny you said I need to back my opinions up with numbers. It takes time to dig them up.

 

I don't think Barnes should fire his agent, because I'm pretty sure he told him he'll take a discount to stay in Boston.

 

Do you really think Barnes signed for exactly (free agent) market value?

[moonslav59]

Maybe the Connecticut native Barnes decided to stay local. I doubt he would have gotten that much more in free agency…

 

So, basically Blake Treinen

($17.5/2) or Trevor May ($15.5/2) money?

 

Other comps...

 

Will Smith $13.3 x 3, Pomeranz $8.5 x 4, Will Harris $8M x 3

$9M x 3 Bryan Shaw & Jake McGee, B Morrow $10.5M x 2, T Hunter $9M x 2, Juan Nicasio $8.5M x 2, A Reed $8.4M x 2

[harmony]

I just thought it was funny you said I need to back my opinions up with numbers. It takes time to dig them up.

 

I don't think Barnes should fire his agent, because I'm pretty sure he told him he'll take a discount to stay in Boston.

 

Do you really think Barnes signed for exactly (free agent) market value?

Yes.

 

Matt Barnes, whom ZiPS projects with 2022 and 2023 fWAR of 0.6 annually, did slightly better than a similar aged and experienced Blake Treinen, whom ZiPS projects with 2022 and 2023 fWAR of 0.8 annually:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-barnes/12863/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/blake-treinen/12572/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections

 

Hometown biases can skew valuations.

 

Or not.

[harmony]

So, basically Blake Treinen

($17.5/2) or Trevor May ($15.5/2) money?

 

Other comps...

 

Will Smith $13.3 x 3, Pomeranz $8.5 x 4, Will Harris $8M x 3

$9M x 3 Bryan Shaw & Jake McGee, B Morrow $10.5M x 2, T Hunter $9M x 2, Juan Nicasio $8.5M x 2, A Reed $8.4M x 2

33-year-old Blake Treinen has posted 7.5 fWAR in 461.1 career innings, 31-year-old Trevor May 5.1 fWAR in 348.2 career innings and 31-year-old Matt Barnes 5.2 fWAR in 374.1 career innings.

 

Draw whatever conclusion ... or no conclusion at all.

[moonslav59]

 

Hometown biases can skew valuations.

 

There are lots of Sox players I think are over rated.

[Kimmi]

It’s a steal if he continues his 2021 pace. Not so much if he reverts to his 2020 performance…

 

Well that's the thing about relievers. They are so unpredictable. I have never been on board with giving large or long term contracts to relievers.

 

This is a good deal.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, this is a highway robbery steal.

 

No, it's not. Garrett Whitlock is a steal.

 

Barnes likely left some money on the table, but this is also a very fair deal for him.

 

Good deal for both sides.

[Kimmi]

Basically we got Barnes for Ottavino money. Where are all those “he’s gonna get $20 mill” people?

 

At the same time, where are all those people who were very much opposed to going into the season with Barnes as our closer?

[mvp 78]

At the same time, where are all those people who were very much opposed to going into the season with Barnes as our closer?

 

I think he's been better than those people projected. He's had some implosions, but that happens with almost every closer.

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox paid full market price. Nothing wrong with that.

 

I wouldn't go so far as to say the Sox paid full market price either.

 

Barnes gave the Sox a home team discount so that he could stay with the Sox. Good deal for both sides.

 

As an aside, I've always liked Barnes, but after reading his comments regarding this extension, he has gone up several notches on my likability and respectability scale.

[mvp 78]

If he went to FA, he gets more money IMO. Good deal.

[Kimmi]

I think he's been better than those people projected. He's had some implosions, but that happens with almost every closer.

 

He's been much better than most people expected.

[Kimmi]

If he went to FA, he gets more money IMO. Good deal.

 

Good deal, yes.

 

Highway robbery, no.