2021 MLB draft

[jacksonianmarch]

No, Boston would be more likely to fill their needs on the open or trade market.

[mvp 78]

No, Boston would be more likely to fill their needs on the open or trade market.

 

No, a team out of contention would be more likely to extend the usefulness of Leiter by stashing him in the minors until they were ready to compete.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No, a team out of contention would be more likely to extend the usefulness of Leiter by stashing him in the minors until they were ready to compete.

 

Any team would love to promote a stud pitcher if he was dominating the minors, especially contenders that welcome the boost of another quality starter. Boston's current club as constructed -- without the sticky -- has barely one: Eovaldi. He's also the only starter who can throw as hard as Leiter, so nobody would be blocking his path to the majors in the near future.

 

A cellar-dweller has no incentive to bring up a future ace, except to ease him into the bigs... as long as he wasn't so good he'd sabotage their tanking.

[Hugh2]

I would suspect Leiter controls when he reaches the majors. Within reason obviously. He won’t be rushed, he won’t be held back for long, when he’s ready he’ll find his way on a team soon enough.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Leiter is a spoiled rich kid--I could see that kind of personality wanting to go to Boston for the prestige, to fulfill his sense of entitlement. The Red Sox don't have a great recent history of developing pitchers, but Leiter probably thinks that won't apply to him, and he will make it to the major leagues quickly enough. The Red Sox aren't exactly loaded with pitching prospects, and so Leiter would immediately be the Red Sox top pitching prospect.

 

With that said, I think teams are prepared to pay Leiter full slot bonus and call his bluff. I think he goes to the Rangers.

 

I'm starting to think the Pirates may not take Davis. Does Davis fit in with the Pirates rebuilding plan? Davis could be ready for the major leagues by 2023, but if the Pirates plan to suck for another 4-5 years as they accumulate draft picks and build an elite farm system, a high school prospect like Mayer would fit in much better with the Pirates competitive timeline.

 

Accordingly, I'm changing my top 4:

Pirates: Mayer

Rangers: Leiter

Tigers: Rocker

Red Sox: Davis

 

I hope it does indeed unfold this way--Davis is my preferred choice for the Red Sox. I'll take him over the prep shortstops and Leiter.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Not all rich kids are spoiled.

[Bellhorn04]

Not all rich kids are spoiled.

 

Good point.

[notin]

Not all rich kids are spoiled.

 

It was odd logic way to imply Leiter will be a difficult sign and fall because of it (a la Eli Manning, another son of a pro athlete), but ultimately it did not impact his Sox selection. Now when the Tigers pick Davis, THAT will have a bigger impact on his wildly incorrect mini mock

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It was odd logic way to imply Leiter will be a difficult sign and fall because of it (a la Eli Manning, another son of a pro athlete), but ultimately it did not impact his Sox selection. Now when the Tigers pick Davis, THAT will have a bigger impact on his wildly incorrect mini mock

 

Eli Manning is a pretty good comparison--he didn't want any part of the Chargers and wanted to go to the more prestigious organization in the Giants. It sounds like Leiter has high bonus demands when speaking to a team like the Pirates but would happily sign with the Red Sox for whatever money is slotted for the fourth pick. Thus, he would be willing to take less money for a more prestigious organization. The Pirates and Red Sox, in particular, are at opposite ends of the spectrum when we consider the value and public perception of MLB organizations.

 

I don't think Leiter's strategy is going to work though, not when a team like the Rangers is willing to pay full slot value for a talent like Leiter. At the end of the day, he will sign even though he would prefer to be drafted by the Red Sox.

 

The Tigers already have a really good young C in their system but I'm also worried they make take Davis. It sounds like the GM is under some pressure and and thus may target a college player over a high school player. The Tigers may conclude that Davis' bat is too good to pass on, and will simply move him to another position. I wonder if Davis can play 3b? He has the arm for it, but if not 3b, definitely LF or RF.

 

Let's say I'm right about the Pirates and let's say the Tigers are determined to take a college player and can't pass on Davis' bat. Moreover, Leiter is probably too good to not go to the Rangers at 2.

 

Pirates: Mayer

Rangers: Leiter

Tigers: Davis

 

This is the worst case scenario for me, since my two top choices, Davis and Leiter, are off the board when the Red Sox pick. In this scenario, do the Red Sox take Rocker? Do they take the big gamble in Jobe? Do they take Lawlar?

Edited June 23, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Hugh2]

Eli Manning is a pretty good comparison--he didn't want any part of the Chargers and wanted to go to the more prestigious organization in the Giants. It sounds like Leiter has high bonus demands when speaking to a team like the Pirates but would happily sign with the Red Sox for whatever money is slotted for the fourth pick. Thus, he would be willing to take less money for a more prestigious organization. The Pirates and Red Sox, in particular, are at opposite ends of the spectrum when we consider the value and public perception of MLB organizations.

 

I don't think Leiter's strategy is going to work though, not when a team like the Rangers is willing to pay full slot value for a talent like Leiter. At the end of the day, he will sign even though he would prefer to be drafted by the Red Sox.

 

The Tigers already have a really good young C in their system but I'm also worried they make take Davis. It sounds like the GM is under some pressure and and thus may target a college player over a high school player. The Tigers may conclude that Davis' bat is too good to pass on, and will simply move him to another position. I wonder if Davis can play 3b? He has the arm for it, but if not 3b, definitely LF or RF.

 

Let's say I'm right about the Pirates and let's say the Tigers are determined to take a college player and can't pass on Davis' bat. Moreover, Leiter is probably too good to not go to the Rangers at 2.

 

Pirates: Mayer

Rangers: Leiter

Tigers: Davis

 

This is the worst case scenario for me, since my two top choices, Davis and Leiter, are off the board when the Red Sox pick. In this scenario, do the Red Sox take Rocker? Do they take the big gamble in Jobe? Do they take Lawlar?

 

Actually I think it's a horrible comparison. What Eli did was not routine at all, when has a NFL player been drafted and demanded they be traded because they didn't like the drafting team?. Leiters agent is throwing around bonus demands which is common practice in the MLB draft ever year. There's probably a 100 other potential MLB draft candidates who have agents throwing around numbers right now.

 

 

EDIT: I think your top 3 mock is spot on. Of course, I think draft day could go down a bunch of different ways, but that would be my guess.

Edited June 23, 2021 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[moonslav59]

My top choices are...

 

Leiter

 

Davis

 

Rocker

 

If we get one, I’ll be happy, but I really like my top 2.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

John Elway did something similar to Eli.

 

Moon, what about Rocker's inconsistency with his velocity--does that bother you? I keep thinking that might be a sign of future arm trouble. I wonder if these organizations can request medicals or even do their own physical? I wouldn't want to take Rocker at 4 without looking at his arm/elbow/shoulder, and make sure there are no red flags.

 

I'm warming up to Rocker, though. Maybe his velocity inconsistencies are due a failure to repeat his delivery, a problem the Red Sox could easily fix. I also like his size, bigger body/frame than Leiter.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

John Elway did something similar to Eli.

 

Moon, what about Rocker's inconsistency with his velocity--does that bother you? I keep thinking that might be a sign of future arm trouble. I wonder if these organizations can request medicals or even do their own physical? I wouldn't want to take Rocker at 4 without looking at his arm/elbow/shoulder, and make sure there are no red flags.

 

I'm warming up to Rocker, though. Maybe his velocity inconsistencies are due a failure to repeat his delivery, a problem the Red Sox could easily fix. I also like his size, bigger body/frame than Leiter.

 

I’d worry about any pitchers health, and yes the velo issues worry me, but even if he has TJS he’ll be in MLB before a HS’er.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Pretty good analysis here:

 

With the first pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, the Pittsburgh Pirates select…

 

Shortstop, Marcelo Mayer.

 

In my opinion, he seems to have the highest ceiling of the top end players in the MLB Draft.

 

Rocker and Leiter would be fun to have. Both are already in their 20’s, though. They would almost need to be fast tracked to the major leagues to ensure their prime years aren’t wasted. At the current moment, the Pirates should be trying to play the long game. As much as having an electric pitcher like that in the system would be, the Pirates have enough pitching prospects at the moment to suffice. With Tommy John surgeries becoming more and more common, selecting a pitcher with the velocity that both guys possess screams future trouble.

 

Davis’ potential as an offensive force at the backstop position sounds intriguing and the Pirates are as devoid of catching talent as anyone in the league. Having an elite catcher ranks a bit lower on my list than other things, especially with the number one pick. If the Pirates were in the pick 3-5 range, I’d be all over Davis. But this pick is huge for the future of the Pirates.

 

I like Lawler a lot as well. Even Wake Forest shortstop Khalil Watson seems promising. But Mayer has all the tools at age-18. All he needs to do is hone all his skills and he’ll be an everyday player at short by 2024.

 

The Pirates could use a bonafide shortstop prospect. Cole Tucker seems to be exactly what he is. Kevin Newman is a streaky player. Oneil Cruz seems ticketed to move from shortstop as he continues to ascend through the farm system. Even Gonzales, last year’s first-round draft choice, profiles more as a second basemen in the majors. Drafting Mayer would give the Buccos a surefire starter at the position for a decade.

https://pittsburghsportscastle.com/2021/06/21/what-direction-should-the-pirates-go-in-the-mlb-draft/

 

The key point is that a college player probably doesn't fit in with the Pirates competitive timeline.

 

The Red Sox just need one of the three teams in front of them to take a high school player. If that happens, the Red Sox are guaranteed one of the following: Leiter, Rocker, Davis.

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s only good analysis because it’s likely right, not that it’s best for the Pirates. The best thing for the Pirates is to draft the best player available. They suck, have sucked, and will continue to suck. The way they’re run, the only way forward is to have a wave of players graduate at the same time or make savvy deals from trading controllable players for a stockpile of near big league ready players. That article talks about the Pirates timeline as if Leiter doesn’t line up. The pirate’s timeline is never, lol.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, after looking at the mocks, I think it goes

 

Mayer

Davis

Leiter

 

And the Sox will have to choose a hot shot SS prospect or Rocker

[mvp 78]

Also, after looking at the mocks, I think it goes

 

Mayer

Davis

Leiter

 

And the Sox will have to choose a hot shot SS prospect or Rocker

 

[Hugh2]

Also, after looking at the mocks, I think it goes

 

Mayer

Davis

Leiter

 

And the Sox will have to choose a hot shot SS prospect or Rocker

 

Someone like Jobe or Watson could easily fall ahead of the Sox. That could push someone like Leiter or Davis down to us too.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

What are your thoughts on the Red Sox taking Jobe, Hugh? Let's say Leiter isn't available at 4 (he probably won't be), would you object to the Red Sox taking Jobe?

[moonslav59]

What are your thoughts on the Red Sox taking Jobe, Hugh? Let's say Leiter isn't available at 4 (he probably won't be), would you object to the Red Sox taking Jobe?

 

MLB.com now has this...

 

1. Mayer

2. Leiter

3. Jobe

4. Lawlar

5. Davis

6. Rocker

[Hugh2]

What are your thoughts on the Red Sox taking Jobe, Hugh? Let's say Leiter isn't available at 4 (he probably won't be), would you object to the Red Sox taking Jobe?

 

I think that’s a good question. I wouldn’t object, I would prefer they take Davis or one of the HS bats over Jobe but that’s a personal preference.

 

If the goal is to take the guy who is going to be the best player, that’s a decision that’s not certain. Jobe is the best high school pitcher in the draft. He has the tools you dream on for a guy being a top of the rotation starter. If you’re drafting for ceiling, then Jobe belongs in that conversation. Jobe is in that conversation. However, high school pitchers are the riskiest pick in the draft. We all remember the Trey Ball pick. HS arms are the riskiest class.

[notin]

Also, after looking at the mocks, I think it goes

 

Mayer

Davis

Leiter

 

And the Sox will have to choose a hot shot SS prospect or Rocker

 

Is Davis’ stock rising that much?

 

When I first predicted him at #3, no one had him in the top 15…

[Hugh2]

Is Davis’ stock rising that much?

 

When I first predicted him at #3, no one had him in the top 15…

 

Davis has been mocked in the top 3-5 for over a month now. He's the best college hitter in the draft, plus hit tool and power, plus arm behind the plate.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Forget Rocker, this is what Callis had to say:

 

6. D-backs: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

MLB Pipeline's No. 1-rated prospect before the season, Rocker won't go higher than this and could slip further.

MLB Mock Draft June 23 2021

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The College World Series is in full swing and teams are scouting those games more than ever now that the Draft has been moved to July. It's difficult to move the needle much this late in the calendar, but there have been several pitching performances of note. Jack Leiter reinforced

OK, so this is what we are left with:

 

Pirates: Mayer

Rangers: Leiter

Tigers: Davis

Red Sox: Lawlar OR Jobe?

 

If the Tigers take Lawlar or Jobe, the Red Sox take Davis, but the Tigers are more interested in a college prospect, someone closer to the major leagues, which is why Davis makes the most sense.

 

If the Tigers do take Davis, I would prefer Jobe over Lawlar, but maybe the Red Sox will go with the SS.

Edited June 24, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

As I'm considering Jobe, I decided to take a look at Red Sox history of drafting High School arms in round 1 (21st Century):

 

2016:

J.Groome

 

2014:

M.Kopech

 

2013:

T.Ball

 

2012:

P.Light

 

2011:

H.Owens

 

2008:

C.Kelly

 

2006:

C.Clay

 

2005:

M.Bowden

 

I forgot all about Casey Kelly. LOL. I had high hopes for him. The list isn't a total disaster--Kopech is a major talent, although he has problems staying healthy. A better idea might be to look at Prep arms taken in the top 5 over the last 10 drafts, maybe I'll look at that soon. It is worth noting that the best Red Sox draftee Prep Arm was Jon Lester, who was taken in the second round in 2002.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Funny, I thought of Roy Oswalt too as a pretty good comparison for Jack Leiter. Cora mentioned Oswalt when talking about Leiter:

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/06/jack-leiter-potential-boston-red-sox-draft-pick-reminds-alex-cora-of-roy-oswalt-a-little-bit-stronger-with-a-good-fastball-and-breaking-ball.html

 

I don't quite remember what happened to Oswalt. He was a top of the rotation starter for around 10 years, but his career faded away pretty quickly and he was out of baseball by his mid-to-late 30s. I suppose it is possible that his smaller size worked against him in the long run and he couldn't sustain his elite stuff into his 30s, but maybe he had an injury, I don't remember anymore. I do remember that he was an elite starting pitcher with the Astros for a lengthy period of time.

 

Yeah, if Leiter can be another Roy Oswalt--a dominant SP for ten years or so--I would be very happy with the Red Sox drafting him at 4.

 

Also, Cora is awesome, my favorite Red Sox manager, but he shouldn't talk about Leiter. We want Leiter to fall to the Red Sox at 4, but when Cora compares him to Roy Oswalt, maybe the Pirates/Rangers/Tigers hear that and it increases their interest in Leiter. Then again, it probably doesn't matter, Leiter isn't going to be available at 4 with or without Cora's comments.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

Oswalt went on a LOA due to tornados near his home in MS. Somewhere along the way, he hurt his back and after coming back from his leave he was never the same pitcher.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Just watching C.Wong behind the plate in his first major league start, the guy is super-athletic. If Wong is the kind of catcher that Bloom covets, maybe Davis isn't the right fit for the Red Sox. While Davis can hit and has an awesome arm, it sounds like he isn't super-athletic behind the plate.......

 

Leiter is my top preference, I would take him over Davis at this point. The comparison to Oswalt won me over. I just have a hard time believing that the Rangers and Tigers will pass on Leiter.

Edited June 27, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[notin]

My mini-mock selection of Rocker looks less likely by the day. But I'm sticking with it, unlike these spineless, wishy-washy types at MLB.com and BA and everywhere else

[moonslav59]

Just watching C.Wong behind the plate in his first major league start, the guy is super-athletic. If Wong is the kind of catcher that Bloom covets, maybe Davis isn't the right fit for the Red Sox. While Davis can hit and has an awesome arm, it sounds like he isn't super-athletic behind the plate.......

 

Leiter is my top preference, I would take him over Davis at this point. The comparison to Oswalt won me over. I just have a hard time believing that the Rangers and Tigers will pass on Leiter.

 

I agree.

 

Davis is close to Leiter, but Leiter is #1.

 

I'd pass on the HS SSs.

 

Rocker is my #3.

 

I have a sense one or more of these 3 will fall to the 4 slot.