2021 MLB draft

[moonslav59]

Again, I'm no scout, but if I'm trying to build a consensus of what the top tier of talent is I think that first tier is

 

Mayer/Lawlar/Leiter/Rocker/House/Davis. Who knows what the Sox board looks like. There could be another guy or two in there and one of those guys out. But I'd be willing to believe they'd take a guy from that tier who wants the least money. Which, make one wonder if Davis/Leiter are the obvious picks if they fall there.

 

I understand your view and don't disagree.

 

As fans, we feel better, if the team picks someone we have heard about and is ranked highly.

 

I'm a big fan of Bloom, and looking at his first round picks with the Rays is not encouraging, but that team was all about not spending big on anyone, so maybe they took the cheapest first rounder in hopes of spreading the wealth to all rounds.

 

Maybe that's a good strategy for big spending teams, too. Maybe it was not really what Bloom wanted to do in Tampa, but their budget forced his hand.

 

We'll find out a lot more about Bloom this draft, IFA cycle, trade deadline and his first winter where I feel will have no tax line limit, except maybe the second line ($20M over the first line.)

[Hugh2]

I understand your view and don't disagree.

 

As fans, we feel better, if the team picks someone we have heard about and is ranked highly.

 

I'm a big fan of Bloom, and looking at his first round picks with the Rays is not encouraging, but that team was all about not spending big on anyone, so maybe they took the cheapest first rounder in hopes of spreading the wealth to all rounds.

 

Maybe that's a good strategy for big spending teams, too. Maybe it was not really what Bloom wanted to do in Tampa, but their budget forced his hand.

 

We'll find out a lot more about Bloom this draft, IFA cycle, trade deadline and his first winter where I feel will have no tax line limit, except maybe the second line ($20M over the first line.)

 

If it makes you feel better I think there is a lot more that goes into a pick than who the G.M. is. The Scouting unit in place feeding Bloom info is completely different than it is in Tampa.

 

A draft is also about your scouts, your cross checkers, your assistant G.M, your director of scouting etc etc. Hopefully, Bostons apparatus can turn his luck around.

[moonslav59]

If it makes you feel better I think there is a lot more that goes into a pick than who the G.M. is. The Scouting unit in place feeding Bloom info is completely different than it is in Tampa.

 

A draft is also about your scouts, your cross checkers, your assistant G.M, your director of scouting etc etc. Hopefully, Bostons apparatus can turn his luck around.

 

Very well said. The GM is only the guy who helps build the consensus, and makes the final call.

[Hugh2]

Very well said. The GM is only the guy who helps build the consensus, and makes the final call.

 

I do think G.M.s take a more active role when it comes to the top pick, but after that I think it's all the scouting team.

[moonslav59]

I do think G.M.s take a more active role when it comes to the top pick, but after that I think it's all the scouting team.

 

Probably true.

 

Even the first pick might be 99% scouting and the whole team more than the GM.

 

The GM might choose one from a very short list that the team comes up with.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Probably true.

 

Even the first pick might be 99% scouting and the whole team more than the GM.

 

The GM might choose one from a very short list that the team comes up with.

 

Unless you're the GM in Moneyball and freak out all the old bird dogs sitting around the table (or if you're a GM who really likes that movie).

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If the Red Sox want to go cheap in the first round in order to go over slot in round 2, Jobe would be an interesting choice at 4. Since he isn't expected to go that high, I'm assuming they can sign him for under slot value and then spend the excess in round 2. In the meantime, while so much can go wrong with Jobe, he is an intriguing prospect with high upside and impressive stuff.

[moonslav59]

If the Red Sox want to go cheap in the first round in order to go over slot in round 2, Jobe would be an interesting choice at 4. Since he isn't expected to go that high, I'm assuming they can sign him for under slot value and then spend the excess in round 2. In the meantime, while so much can go wrong with Jobe, he is an intriguing prospect with high upside and impressive stuff.

 

How do GMs know who will sign for less and by how much?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

How do GMs know who will sign for less and by how much?

 

The organization contacts the agent in advance? Or the organization contacts the player in advance? I'm pretty sure organizations know this information prior to the draft and have a general idea if a player will sign for under slot or not.

[notin]

The organization contacts the agent in advance? Or the organization contacts the player in advance? I'm pretty sure organizations know this information prior to the draft and have a general idea if a player will sign for under slot or not.

 

I also assume at some point they get to talk to the agents of potential draftees...

[Hugh2]

Agents absolutely put out their clients bonus demands. Teams know what it will take to sign these guys.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

So when the Red Sox drafted Blaze Jordan in the third round, they knew that it would take around 1.7 million to sign him. They didn't just draft him and then hope for the best. They knew what he wanted and they knew they could match the price.

[moonslav59]

Well, sometimes players are drafted and don't sign and go or return to college, instead.

 

I guess it's not an exact science.

 

Remember Mark Appel?

[moonslav59]

MLB.com updated their mock draft:

 

1.Mayer to Pitt

 

2. Davis to TX

 

3. Leiter to DET

 

4. Lawlar to BOS

 

5. House to BAL

 

6. Rocker to AZ

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

There is some speculation that the Pirates might take Davis at 1. It is worth noting that the Tigers will probably not take Davis--they really like D.Dingler. The Rangers have Huff, a good young catcher. I think the Rangers are taking an SP.

 

If the Pirates don't take Davis, he should be available for the Red Sox at 4, and that is what I'm hoping for.

 

Unlike the Rangers and Tigers, the Pirates are desperate for a catcher of the future. They don't have anyone that fits that description.

Edited June 6, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

There is some speculation that the Pirates might take Davis at 1. It is worth noting that the Tigers will probably not take Davis--they really like D.Dingler. The Rangers have Huff, a good young catcher. I think the Rangers are taking an SP.

 

If the Pirates don't take Davis, he should be available for the Red Sox at 4, and that is what I'm hoping for.

 

Unlike the Rangers and Tigers, the Pirates are desperate for a catcher of the future. They don't have anyone that fits that description.

 

Stallings is a pretty good catcher and has 3 years of team control left after this year.

 

I just had this trade accepted on BTV:

 

Rolando Hernandez, Chavis, Ward & Groome

 

to PIT for

 

Adam Frazier and Richard Rodriguez

 

After this year, Frazier has one more year of control- Rodrigues two.

 

It would have accepted the trade without Ward or Groome, but I don't think PIT makes this deal with even both.

[Hugh2]

There is some speculation that the Pirates might take Davis at 1. It is worth noting that the Tigers will probably not take Davis--they really like D.Dingler. The Rangers have Huff, a good young catcher. I think the Rangers are taking an SP.

 

If the Pirates don't take Davis, he should be available for the Red Sox at 4, and that is what I'm hoping for.

 

Unlike the Rangers and Tigers, the Pirates are desperate for a catcher of the future. They don't have anyone that fits that description.

 

Teams don't draft for need, they often draft BPA. Huff could be close to FA, or have fallen off a cliff by the time Davis is MLB ready, also Davis is considered an all star caliber bat with the athleticism and arm to play 3B. If you keep him at catcher, and he becomes one of the best prospects in the game and you like Huff, you can always trade a guy like Davis to fill in a hole elsewhere.

 

The Tigers love taking college bats too so I think there's a good chance Davis is gone before we pick, but a lot can happen. Good chance Leiter goes, and if two of the HS short stops from this class go early then it's probable that Davis slips to us.

[Hugh2]

Kiley McDaniel on the top of the draft:

 

The Pirates (No. 1 pick) are believed to be down to Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, with price playing a big part in their decision -- with Jack Leiter and/or Henry Davis as long-shot options. The Rangers (No. 2) are generally seen to prefer Leiter and Davis, but it appears they haven't made any firm decisions yet, so it's early. The Tigers (No. 3) are known to love Mayer and they've always loved SEC power pitchers, so Leiter is likely second on their board, but there's a split in the industry on who'd they take if those players go 1-2. Sources have suggested Lawlar, Kumar Rocker, Brady House, and, with some late momentum, Jobe. Boston (No. 4) has long been tied to Rocker, but I don't know if that is to be believed; I'm buying into Davis links much more.

[moonslav59]

Teams don't draft for need, they often draft BPA. Huff could be close to FA, or have fallen off a cliff by the time Davis is MLB ready, also Davis is considered an all star caliber bat with the athleticism and arm to play 3B. If you keep him at catcher, and he becomes one of the best prospects in the game and you like Huff, you can always trade a guy like Davis to fill in a hole elsewhere.

 

The Tigers love taking college bats too so I think there's a good chance Davis is gone before we pick, but a lot can happen. Good chance Leiter goes, and if two of the HS short stops from this class go early then it's probable that Davis slips to us.

 

Good points, as always.

 

I'm sure I'd be happy getting one of the HS SS's, but I much prefer college picks. I try to take the longer look, but on this, I find it hard to do.

 

I want Bloom to take who he thinks is the best player, regardless of position or HS/College, but in my heart, I hope it ends up being a college player.

 

It seems nearly certain one of these three will be available, and I hope we get one:

 

Leiter

Davis

Rocker

 

I'm no draft expert. I'm just going by what I read.

[Hugh2]

I was really down on Davis for a long time, for no real good reason other than I don't like Catching prospects, and I have no real good reason for that either.

 

I'm starting to come around on Davis, if the defense improves behind the plate then he's a potential franchise player. If he moves to third, he still has 1st division starter upside with his bat. But I'd take Leiter over Davis at this point, even if college bats are a safer bet I like the risk/reward shot at a MLB starting pitcher.

 

Really like the highschool short stops, both Mayer/Lawlar are 5 tool talents.

[moonslav59]

I was really down on Davis for a long time, for no real good reason other than I don't like Catching prospects, and I have no real good reason for that either.

 

I'm starting to come around on Davis, if the defense improves behind the plate then he's a potential franchise player. If he moves to third, he still has 1st division starter upside with his bat. But I'd take Leiter over Davis at this point, even if college bats are a safer bet I like the risk/reward shot at a MLB starting pitcher.

 

Really like the high school short stops, both Mayer/Lawlar are 5 tool talents.

 

I'm pretty sure highly-valued catching prospects have to have the worst success rate, so I think that's reason enough to be skeptical.

[Hugh2]

I'm pretty sure highly-valued catching prospects have to have the worst success rate, so I think that's reason enough to be skeptical.

 

yeah, that's what I thought too but someone on another forum pointed out the track record of catchers drafted in the top ten and it's really really really good.

 

Catchers take more time to develop, but with Davis the bat is elite, that a team might consider him a top ten talent with his bat alone. He's got plenty of arm for 3rd.

[moonslav59]

yeah, that's what I thought too but someone on another forum pointed out the track record of catchers drafted in the top ten and it's really really really good.

 

Catchers take more time to develop, but with Davis the bat is elite, that a team might consider him a top ten talent with his bat alone. He's got plenty of arm for 3rd.

 

I guess what I'm thinking about are highly touted catching prospects in the minors that never panned out.

 

Kottaras, Salty, Lava and Swihart all ring a bell?

[Hugh2]

I guess what I'm thinking about are highly touted catching prospects in the minors that never panned out.

 

Kottaras, Salty, Lava and Swihart all ring a bell?

 

They also weren't top ten college catchers, the track record there is good. Joe Mauer and Buster Posey were top ten picks (although Joe was a HS guy). Over the last ten years the worse college catcher taken in the first round has been Zack Collins who was taken #10 overall and he's still in the big leagues, most draft picks don't even make the majors. But even he still has a chance to make it, as he's relatively young and hit well in the minors.

 

Me personally, I'd rather have a defensive stud with average offense, maybe even below average if the rest of the lineup is good. And you can easily sign or trade for one of those guys if you don't have one in your system. It would be like putting a poor defender out in CF just because he can hit, why not just move him to LF? I'm not saying Davis isn't going to be a good catcher, but it's his arm that is what has scouts raving about him behind the plate. Honestly, I'd value blocking and framing much more than controlling the run game.

 

I have come around on Davis though. I'm not attached to him at #4 but I'd be excited to have him in the system.

[Hugh2]

in 2019 Adley Rutschman and Shane Langeliers were taken in the top 10 and they're ranked #2 and #73 in all of baseball.

 

Joey Bart was #41 in baseball before recently graduating as he was rushed, still 24 hitting well in AAA. He looks like a MLBer

 

Kyle Schwarber in 2014 and Mike Zunino in 2012.

 

If history is precedent, Davis is a future MLB catcher and I'm really starting to love the bat.

[moonslav59]

They also weren't top ten college catchers, the track record there is good. Joe Mauer and Buster Posey were top ten picks (although Joe was a HS guy). Over the last ten years the worse college catcher taken in the first round has been Zack Collins who was taken #10 overall and he's still in the big leagues, most draft picks don't even make the majors. But even he still has a chance to make it, as he's relatively young and hit well in the minors.

 

Me personally, I'd rather have a defensive stud with average offense, maybe even below average if the rest of the lineup is good. And you can easily sign or trade for one of those guys if you don't have one in your system. It would be like putting a poor defender out in CF just because he can hit, why not just move him to LF? I'm not saying Davis isn't going to be a good catcher, but it's his arm that is what has scouts raving about him behind the plate. Honestly, I'd value blocking and framing much more than controlling the run game.

 

I have come around on Davis though. I'm not attached to him at #4 but I'd be excited to have him in the system.

 

Sounds good.

 

It seems strange that the track record is better with high catcher draft picks than high-ranking catcher prospects with professional baseball experience already under their belt.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The most desirable traits for a star catcher are behind the plate -- not standing on the side of it, holding a bat. I'm in agreement that great D can be found in many ways and places beyond using the #4 pick in the draft.

 

Pitching is always a priority, but the need in Boston to develop homegrown arms has been growing for over a decade. After last summer's debacle, watching the worst-ever Red Sox pitching staff, it may be more dire than ever.

 

Using a high pick on a pitcher is risky, but there have been two stud rotation aces looming at the top for months, both with pro athlete fathers. If ever there was a year to take the gamble, it's this one. The Sox may not (hopefully) get another pick this high for a long time.

[notin]

I guess what I'm thinking about are highly touted catching prospects in the minors that never panned out.

 

Kottaras, Salty, Lava and Swihart all ring a bell?

 

The only one of those who was highly touted and didn’t pan out was Swihart.

 

Lavarnway was actually ranked by some of the orgs, but no one ever seemed to think he’d stick at catcher and his rankings were more for his bat.

 

Saltalamacchia was a BA ranked prospect, but he did have a 12 year MLB career. I can call that “panning out.”

 

Kottaras was never a highly regarded prospect by anyone except maybe his own mom.

 

You could have at least shown some love for former Sox top prospect and Peabody native Steve Lomasney...,

[Hugh2]

The most desirable traits for a star catcher are behind the plate -- not standing on the side of it, holding a bat. I'm in agreement that great D can be found in many ways and places beyond using the #4 pick in the draft.

 

Pitching is always a priority, but the need in Boston to develop homegrown arms has been growing for over a decade. After last summer's debacle, watching the worst-ever Red Sox pitching staff, it may be more dire than ever.

 

Using a high pick on a pitcher is risky, but there have been two stud rotation aces looming at the top for months, both with pro athlete fathers. If ever there was a year to take the gamble, it's this one. The Sox may not (hopefully) get another pick this high for a long time.

 

Agreed, but Davis is a top 10 talent for his bat alone. I wouldn’t be upset with the top college bar in the draft.

[moonslav59]

The only one of those who was highly touted and didn’t pan out was Swihart.

 

Lavarnway was actually ranked by some of the orgs, but no one ever seemed to think he’d stick at catcher and his rankings were more for his bat.

 

Saltalamacchia was a BA ranked prospect, but he did have a 12 year MLB career. I can call that “panning out.”

 

Kottaras was never a highly regarded prospect by anyone except maybe his own mom.

 

You could have at least shown some love for former Sox top prospect and Peabody native Steve Lomasney...,

 

Show some lovin' for George:

 

Baseball America rated him as the 17th-best prospect in the California League, right behind Nate Schierholtz and the #2 prospect in the San Diego chain. Kottaras continued his climb in 2006, with a .276/.394/.451 campaign in 78 games for Mobile and a .210/.286/.361 line in 33 games for the Portland Beavers. He hit just .111 against left-handers while with Portland. Baseball America rated him the #14 prospect in the Southern League, between Tyler Lumsden and Alberto Gonzalez. Kottaras also dazzled in the 2006 Futures Game. He started at catcher for the World team, hitting 7th. In the second inning, he doubled against Homer Bailey and scored on a Chin-Lung Hu double for a 1-0 World team lead. By the time he batted again in the 4th, the World trailed 7-2. He did his part, with a 2-run homer off of Philip Hughes to score Wladimir Balentien. Kottaras was replaced by Salomon Manriquez at catcher before he batted again. He finished the day as the World's top player in total bases and runs and tied Balentien for the RBI lead. The World team lost, 8-5...