2021 MLB draft

[moonslav59]

Let me get this straight: does a team really save money, if they sign their first pick below slot, but then make later round picks "above slot?"

[Hugh2]

Let me get this straight: does a team really save money, if they sign their first pick below slot, but then make later round picks "above slot?"

 

I don't think the actual goal is to save money. But rather increase the amount of money they can spend on other picks. You can go 5% over your bonus pool and only have to pay a tax on that 5% overage, but if you go any higher then you start to lose 1st round picks. If a team can save 2 million at the top and throw split the money up in later rounds they can grab talent that fell there because of money issues and get a higher talent than that pick commands.

 

Personally, I don't think the Sox are going to save money, maybe a few hundred thousand but they're not looking to cut a deal outside the consensus top 6-8.

[notin]

Let me get this straight: does a team really save money, if they sign their first pick below slot, but then make later round picks "above slot?"

 

No, but they can make bigger offers to players who fall due to signability issues. Such as KC taking Hunter Dozier well above all projections and later taking Sean Manaea…

[moonslav59]

I don't think the actual goal is to save money. But rather increase the amount of money they can spend on other picks. You can go 5% over your bonus pool and only have to pay a tax on that 5% overage, but if you go any higher then you start to lose 1st round picks. If a team can save 2 million at the top and throw split the money up in later rounds they can grab talent that fell there because of money issues and get a higher talent than that pick commands.

 

Personally, I don't think the Sox are going to save money, maybe a few hundred thousand but they're not looking to cut a deal outside the consensus top 6-8.

 

Ok, thanks for the tutorial.

 

I just wonder why it makes a difference for a "cheap Team" like PIT, if they end up spending the same in the long run, no matter who they take at #1 and how much they pay him.

 

I guess some cheap teams may like to try and add several good players and not one great one.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

KG: Word is Leiter is trying to price himself down to Boston and wants to land there. Word is that Boston would love that as well. Thus, a match made in heaven.

 

EL: Yup.

 

Link:

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/06/jack-leiter-to-red-sox-vanderbilt-righty-wants-to-land-in-boston-per-fangraphs-mock-draft-a-match-made-in-heaven-report.html

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm starting to think the draft will unfold in the following manner:

 

Pirates: H.Davis, the best player in the draft and according to reports, Cherrington has been concerned over the Pirates lack of depth at the catcher position.

 

Rangers: J.Leiter, too good to pass on and they need pitching.

 

Tigers: M.Mayer

 

Red Sox: do they take Lawlar, Rocker, or, perhaps a dark horse candidate like Jobe?

 

I want Davis, but assuming Davis, Leiter, and Mayer are off the board 1-2-3, who should the Red Sox take at 4?

[Hugh2]

I'm starting to think the draft will unfold in the following manner:

 

Pirates: H.Davis, the best player in the draft and according to reports, Cherrington has been concerned over the Pirates lack of depth at the catcher position.

 

Rangers: J.Leiter, too good to pass on and they need pitching.

 

Tigers: M.Mayer

 

Red Sox: do they take Lawlar, Rocker, or, perhaps a dark horse candidate like Jobe?

 

I want Davis, but assuming Davis, Leiter, and Mayer are off the board 1-2-3, who should the Red Sox take at 4?

 

I do think Davis is a candidate for #1 but I don’t think he’s the clear cut best player in the draft. Teams don’t draft for need at the top like that. Also remember both Texas and Pitts have been heavily linked to both Mayer/Lawlar.

 

But in the spirit of conversation if Davis,Leiter, and Mayer are off the board I’d be happy with House or Lawlar.

[Hugh2]

A lot of what happens 2-4 can change depending on what Pitt does at #1. And this draft is unique in that there’s not a clear cut #1 consensus pick at the top.

[notin]

I'm starting to think the draft will unfold in the following manner:

 

Pirates: H.Davis, the best player in the draft and according to reports, Cherrington has been concerned over the Pirates lack of depth at the catcher position.

 

Rangers: J.Leiter, too good to pass on and they need pitching.

 

Tigers: M.Mayer

 

Red Sox: do they take Lawlar, Rocker, or, perhaps a dark horse candidate like Jobe?

 

I want Davis, but assuming Davis, Leiter, and Mayer are off the board 1-2-3, who should the Red Sox take at 4?

 

Rocker…

[Fan_since_Boggs]

In this scenario, I would take Lawlar--those Carlos Correa comparisons are hard to resist. Does anyone have a problem with Lawlar's age--he will be turning 19 very soon and thus he is slightly older than the typical high school prospect? According to MLB's scouting report, "teams with age-based models" won't like Lawlar quite as much due to his age. It worth noting that House is almost a full year younger than Lawlar. Edited June 15, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In this scenario, I would take Lawlar--those Carlos Correa comparisons are hard to resist. Does anyone have a problem with Lawlar's age--he will be turning 19 very soon and thus he is slightly older than the typical high school prospect? According to MLB's scouting report, "teams with age-based models" won't like Lawlar quite as much due to his age. It worth noting that House is almost a full year younger than Lawlar.

 

Regarding high school shortstops: from what I read, House is more of a power guy, Lawlar pure speed who will grow into power (few humans grow into speed). The two lefty sticks are Watson and Mayer. Watson is 5'9", Mayer 6'3". Just looking at body types, you can see how scouts may prefer Lawlar and Mayer; one eval site gives them each overall ratings of 60, while the other two grade at 55... a literal pick-em.

[jacksonianmarch]

Last two mocks have Leiter falling to the sox

[Hugh2]

If Mayer, Leiter, and Davis are gone at 4 and Lawlar is on the board you have to think House will be in play too. I know Watson has come on lately and some mock drafts have put him as high as #2 but I haven't heard anyone connecting him to the Red Sox.

 

I'd like to say Rocker, who was heavily connected to the Sox earlier but there has not been any real talk about him going to Boston lately, it could just be other names attached to the Sox because they're doing their due diligence but I think he's still a possibility at #4. I'm very hot and cold on Rocker, one moment I love him and the next I want the Sox to pass. I won't be upset if he's the pick.

 

Leiter falling to the Sox, I wonder how much of that is him supposedly pricing himself out and down to Boston? there's a scenario where he falls there no matter what, but I can easily see a team calling Jacks Leiters bluff and drafting him at #1-3. That's a real possibility.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is gonna be no validity to Leiter “pricing himself out” of a higher spot. Higher spots have considerably more money attached. What’s Leiter’s leverage? I’ll go back to school? And risk blowing out an elbow and being a late 1st rounder or worse? For the 3 teams ahead of Boston in the draft, they’re all in lengthy rebuilds. An ace helps, but a position player is more reliable injury wise and those three teams have so many holes that they’re gonna take a guy they think can be a franchise cornerstone. If the position players look to be potential perennial all stars then taking them is the better bet. The Sox are in a different mode. They’re in the hunt and are lacking pitching in their system. It’s a match made in heaven for the Sox to draft a guy who can probably start 2022 in AA and maybe even make his debut late next season.

[moonslav59]

There is gonna be no validity to Leiter “pricing himself out” of a higher spot. Higher spots have considerably more money attached. What’s Leiter’s leverage? I’ll go back to school? And risk blowing out an elbow and being a late 1st rounder or worse? For the 3 teams ahead of Boston in the draft, they’re all in lengthy rebuilds. An ace helps, but a position player is more reliable injury wise and those three teams have so many holes that they’re gonna take a guy they think can be a franchise cornerstone. If the position players look to be potential perennial all stars then taking them is the better bet. The Sox are in a different mode. They’re in the hunt and are lacking pitching in their system. It’s a match made in heaven for the Sox to draft a guy who can probably start 2022 in AA and maybe even make his debut late next season.

 

You make too much sense, for a Yankee fan.

 

All kidding aside, I do not think we draft a pitcher, because our system lacks great young pitchers. I'm sure Bloom knows the miss rate on pitchers, even college ones is higher than positional players, and with a budget like the Sox have, we can always go out and buy pitching, when needed. One thing to think about: how does the miss rate compare between HS positional players and college pitchers? Plus, I'm not sure how much GMs think about miss rate histories. It's probably a factor but not the top one. (Same with pedigree.)

 

That being said, I really like Leiter and am still high on Rocker.

 

Here is my updated Sox pick list (not how I think the draft will go):

 

1. Davis

2. Leiter

3. Rocker

4. Mayer (flip a coin with Lawlar)

5. Lawlar

6. Jobe

7. House

8. Watson

 

If we get Davis or Leiter I will be ecstatic!

 

I think there is a drop after the top 2, and the 3 through 6 or 8 are pretty tightly bunched.

 

(I'm no expert on drafts.)

[jacksonianmarch]

The craziest thing is that Bloom turned the Sox around from DD’s cliff into a winner in 2 years. You don’t even get a full down season, just one bummer of a shortened who gives a f*** season. Now I don’t think the Sox are title contenders this year, but Bloom took a mountain of s*** and turned it into gold somehow. Adding a young ace to the mix takes the Sox from playoff contenders to World Series contenders. Sox are entering their window again

[moonslav59]

The craziest thing is that Bloom turned the Sox around from DD’s cliff into a winner in 2 years. You don’t even get a full down season, just one bummer of a shortened who gives a f*** season. Now I don’t think the Sox are title contenders this year, but Bloom took a mountain of s*** and turned it into gold somehow. Adding a young ace to the mix takes the Sox from playoff contenders to World Series contenders. Sox are entering their window again

 

I was a cliff-dweller and thought it would take 2-3 years to get back into serious contention (not outside chance for WC berth contention).

 

I don't view us a serious contenders just yet, but we are much closer than I thought we'd be, and maybe with a few tweaks at teh deadline or a surprising showing by Sale, we could be there, this season.

 

The way the system is set up against the big spending teams, I thought it would take longer to rebuild the farm. We're still not top tier, but last summer's sell-off, the Betts trade, and this year's high draft picks may get us there by the end of the summer.

 

We lose Pedey's contract, and now losing ERod doesn't look as bad as it did before this season began. Replacing or re-signing Barnes looks like the only real urgent need. Replacing Ottavino and ERod will be costly, but improving on their 2021 numbers does not look impossible. Marwin is easily replaced or extended.

 

We can expect some positive impact from some of these guys over the next year or 1.5 years (not counting Sale & Brasier and more use of Whitlock):

 

Duran

Houck

Casas

Bazardo

Downs

Seabold

Ward, Bello, Groome, Murphy, Winckowski, Song?

Ronaldo Hernandez/Connor Wong

Wilson/Rosario/Arauz/Potts

Politi

 

2+ years out

This year's draftees

Jimenez

Mata

A Ramirez

Yorke

Lugo, Bonaci, Jordan, Valdez (now ranked 19th), Decker, Howlett, Cannon, Bleis

Feltman, Blalock, Drohan, Gambrell (ranked 30th), F German, J Wallace, R Rodriguez

 

 

 

 

[iortiz]

The craziest thing is that Bloom turned the Sox around from DD’s cliff into a winner in 2 years. You don’t even get a full down season, just one bummer of a shortened who gives a f*** season. Now I don’t think the Sox are title contenders this year, but Bloom took a mountain of s*** and turned it into gold somehow. Adding a young ace to the mix takes the Sox from playoff contenders to World Series contenders. Sox are entering their window again

 

That cliff created was needed to win that 2018 WS.

 

Said that, yeah, I like how things are shaping up with Bloom.

[Hugh2]

There is gonna be no validity to Leiter “pricing himself out” of a higher spot. Higher spots have considerably more money attached. What’s Leiter’s leverage? I’ll go back to school? And risk blowing out an elbow and being a late 1st rounder or worse? For the 3 teams ahead of Boston in the draft, they’re all in lengthy rebuilds. An ace helps, but a position player is more reliable injury wise and those three teams have so many holes that they’re gonna take a guy they think can be a franchise cornerstone. If the position players look to be potential perennial all stars then taking them is the better bet. The Sox are in a different mode. They’re in the hunt and are lacking pitching in their system. It’s a match made in heaven for the Sox to draft a guy who can probably start 2022 in AA and maybe even make his debut late next season.

 

His Leverage is he's a sophomore, he can go back to college and go into the draft two more times. If he falls to 2 or 3 he can say he was good enough to go 1-1 and that's the money he wants. Guys often sign for below, and above their bonus slot.

The Pirates slot at #1 is 8.4 million, they can easily take someone willing to cut a deal and sign someone for 7 million if they wanted. Pittsburgh could be trying to low ball Leiter too. Now the difference isn't that much.

 

There is precedent for this. Brady Aiken was drafted 1-1 overall in 2014 and did not sign because he wanted more money. He could easily be bluffing and asking for more money, this is all negotiating. But I agree, It's risky, and a team could easily call his bluff. But if the Sox draft him, he's not starting in 2022, I'd put my money on late 2023.

[notin]

The craziest thing is that Bloom turned the Sox around from DD’s cliff into a winner in 2 years. You don’t even get a full down season, just one bummer of a shortened who gives a f*** season. Now I don’t think the Sox are title contenders this year, but Bloom took a mountain of s*** and turned it into gold somehow. Adding a young ace to the mix takes the Sox from playoff contenders to World Series contenders. Sox are entering their window again

 

While I like this team so far, it’s really not a winning season until we get that 82nd win. There’s still a long way to go….

[Hugh2]

Heck Pitt can go as low as 6.4 million with the first pick. They could easily be shopping the first pick to see who is willing to take 6.4 million, which is below the Sox slot value of 6.6 million. Again, hypothetically you can sign a guy for the above slot too.

[notin]

His Leverage is he's a sophomore, he can go back to college and go into the draft two more times. If he falls to 2 or 3 he can say he was good enough to go 1-1 and that's the money he wants. Guys often sign for below, and above their bonus slot.

The Pirates slot at #1 is 8.4 million, they can easily take someone willing to cut a deal and sign someone for 7 million if they wanted. Pittsburgh could be trying to low ball Leiter too. Now the difference isn't that much.

 

There is precedent for this. Brady Aiken was drafted 1-1 overall in 2014 and did not sign because he wanted more money. He could easily be bluffing and asking for more money, this is all negotiating. But I agree, It's risky, and a team could easily call his bluff. But if the Sox draft him, he's not starting in 2022, I'd put my money on late 2023.

 

 

Mark Appel would be another precedent…

[Hugh2]

Mark Appel would be another precedent…

 

Exactly. If you're the team drafting Leiter you show him what happened to Aiken, he lost 2.5 million and fell 17 spots. Appel shot up 7 spots and made millions more, if you're Leiter and his agent that's your example.

[notin]

Exactly. If you're the team drafting Leiter you show him what happened to Aiken, he lost 2.5 million and fell 17 spots. Appel shot up 7 spots and made millions more, if you're Leiter and his agent that's your example.

 

At some point, does it become relevant that neither Aiken nor Appel ever pitched in the majors?

[moonslav59]

While I like this team so far, it’s really not a winning season until we get that 82nd win. There’s still a long way to go….

 

At 40-27, we'd have to go 41-54(.432) the rest of the way. While that falls within the reasonable range, when you look at how weak many other teams are, I don't see that happening,

[mvp 78]

At 40-27, we'd have to go 41-54(.432) the rest of the way. While that falls within the reasonable range, when you look at how weak many other teams are, I don't see that happening,

 

Going .500 the rest of the way gets them to 87-88 wins. It sounds like a let down now, but we would have all been on board on April 1.

[moonslav59]

Heck Pitt can go as low as 6.4 million with the first pick. They could easily be shopping the first pick to see who is willing to take 6.4 million, which is below the Sox slot value of 6.6 million. Again, hypothetically you can sign a guy for the above slot too.

 

So, if you are Leiter, and you want to fall to the Sox, you demand $8M plus from the top 3 teams in the draft, then take less from the Sox, since we cant offer as much?

Edited June 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Why would he want to go to the Sox? If I was getting drafted, I’d want to go to a team that is rebuilding as that’ll provide a path to least resistance to major league service time

[notin]

Why would he want to go to the Sox? If I was getting drafted, I’d want to go to a team that is rebuilding as that’ll provide a path to least resistance to major league service time

 

Because his dad was a Yankee!!

[mvp 78]

Because his dad was a Yankee!!

 

Was his dad really Al or was it Steve George?